England: Premier May 11

[aliando]

Sunday 11 May 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Birmingham City v Blackburn Rovers (15:00BST)	2.05	3.65	4.10	100.57 %	Details »
Hide « Birmingham City v Blackburn Rovers
Chelsea v Bolton Wanderers (15:00BST)	1.18	9.20	22.00	100.16 %	Details »
Hide « Chelsea v Bolton Wanderers
Derby County v Reading (15:00BST)	6.55	4.40	1.61	99.90 %	Details »
Hide « Derby County v Reading
Everton v Newcastle United (15:00BST)	1.96	3.50	4.70	100.87 %	Details »
Hide « Everton v Newcastle United
Middlesbrough v Manchester City (15:00BST)	2.18	3.45	3.85	100.83 %	Details »
Hide « Middlesbrough v Manchester City
Portsmouth v Fulham (15:00BST)	3.65	3.75	2.20	99.52 %	Details »
Hide « Portsmouth v Fulham
Sunderland v Arsenal (15:00BST)	4.60	3.85	1.90	100.09 %	Details »
Hide « Sunderland v Arsenal
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool (15:00BST)	2.78	3.45	2.85	100.04 %	Details »
Hide « Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
West Ham v Aston Villa (15:00BST)	3.40	3.70	2.30	99.92 %	Details »
Hide « West Ham v Aston Villa
Wigan Athletic v Manchester United (15:00BST)	15.50	6.50	1.27	100.58 %	Details »

[WHUPUNTER]

Im tempted to lay Reading at those odds. Theyre a poor side on a poor run and havnt scored in 6 games (correct me if im wrong). They should beat Derby but are no value at 1.61 and Derby have shown slight improvement with at least managing to score against West Ham Blackburn and Arsenal.

Its a small stakes LAY for me here.

[ainsworth_21]

just seen that the odds for portsmouth win 2/1 stanjames. early doors this looks quite an interesting price. obviously for fulham this is a must win to stay up, and i think this and the fact that 1) portsmouth are out of form and 2) the cup final is 6 days later are the reason for the price.

i feel, however, that as much as i love football for the 'fairytale' side of it, to expect fulham to escape might just be too much. they've done so well to win their last 2 away games after going so long without winning from home, and yes the man city match was an immense effort. but i do expect portsmouth, who have had a great season in the league overall, in no way to lay down. they might not go all out attack, but in these sort of games i believe that the team that has to win can get caught out on the counter.

to be fair, this is just an early 'feeler' type post, and im going to wait until late in the week to decide. at this early stage though, i think it's worth some consideration.

btw, fulham are 8/13 to get relegated, and i feel they might have to win to survive, so in effect covering the portsmouth win and draw. p.s. i do realise that fulham can stay up with a draw, but imo i expect either reading or birmingham to win, a bit presumptuous i know.

[SeanMac]

going with chelsea and man utd this weekend , these two are in no way going to slip up at the weekend i think both will win comfortably will be putting them on a double

[WHUPUNTER]

Me tooo but will have to be big stakes to make it worthwhile

[cavelloman]

Portsmouth are overpriced @3.55 as are Juventus @1.9 both with Betfair.

Question is a Man U/Chelsea double value?

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by SeanMac

going with chelsea and man utd this weekend , these two are in no way going to slip up at the weekend i think both will win comfortably will be putting them on a double

So by that reasoning the odds of both should be 1/10000. Every match will have set of odds so are you saying that both teams are overpriced at 1.25 and 1.15. How do you model your oddsline. Form and historial data , Poission Distribution, least square line based on ratings etc etc?

[El_Tren]

Haven't posted here before but done so in blogs and other forums, so might as well start off putting up my picks for scrutiny and fun
My performance in EPL isnt as good as in the leagues I know actually everything about, so please educate me where I'm wrong.
Most of my bets are asian handicaps.

Somehow, played only dogs this weekend :

Wigan +1.75+111 vs Man United and Under 3+102 in the same game - doesn't strike me as a blow-out game, unless of course Wigan decides not to show up - can't imagine though. Seems like a 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 United kind of game to me.

Bolton +2-103 at Chelsea - yes, they're going to win, but does Chelsea ever outscore anyone by 3 ?? (well, besides Derby of course, but that doesn't count)

Portsmouth +0.5-120 vs Fulham - yea I get that Portsmough hasn't won in ages and has a cup final coming up, and Fulham has put together a good run, and Fulham is playing for survival and all that - but Portsmouth being a half goal dog at home ?! Really ?? This is the bet I feel least comfortable with, but went with it anyway.

Blackburn +0.5-119 at Birmingham City - Puzzling. Blackburn is playing for a place in europe if West Ham can get something out of the game against Villa, and is on a decent run, and are actually a good team, and they're a dog against the second worst team in the league ?

I'd bet Derby+1.25-116 at home vs Reading if they weren't actually the pits. Does seem like a very high handicap considering Reading are also hardly stellar. A random Championship team +1.25 at home vs Reading, I'd bet in a flash.

Oh, and one more thing I just spotted : ManU/Wigan draw +535 and ManU to win the title -450. Of course you run the risk of ManU losing outright and losing both of your bets, but the overwhelming amount of the time you will simply win a small amount and you have the shot at both ManU and Chelsea drawing and sweeping the bet.

[SeanMac]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

So by that reasoning the odds of both should be 1/10000. Every match will have set of odds so are you saying that both teams are overpriced at 1.25 and 1.15. How do you model your oddsline. Form and historial data , Poission Distribution, least square line based on ratings etc etc?

I think i get what your saying mate , maybe not but i get to these conclusions by going through the stats and knowing that minus the chelsea game man utd havent been beat in 10 league games , there last meeting with wigan ended in a 4-0 humping , if they win they win the league , plus theres the fact that Wigan have absoulutely nothing to play for , steve bruce is a man utd man so i doubt he will be going gung ho

With Chelsea we have a team that havent been beatin in the league in 20 games , you need to go back to before xmas to see their last defeat , they have won their last 3 , a win could give them the league , they are playing a Bolton team that have all but guareenteed safety , i think chelsea will have two much quality for Bolton on the day Also i think its important to note for people who are going for a first goalscorer this week that in there last 4 games , chelsea have scored 6 goals , all of which have came from midfielders
Big Double Chelsea and Man Utd

[Tulenos]

The ManU/Chelsea odds are inflated like hell - and even if you want to jump on such odds, especially in a double, consider that there is usually very good knowledge on the bench on what is going on on the other pitch - say one team is three up @ HT while the other one's drawing... This is no conspiracy theory, just a note that such sure-fire bankers usually have a bit more to them than just the must win situation

[nastro 1888]

Kind of like the look of Sunderland @ 4.60 home to arsenal - Arsenal are finishing 3rd regardless and with hleb now following flamini out the door and others still not decided, the gunners look a bit disjointed for the final day, 9 6 3 is nothing special on the road for a top 3 team and Sunderland have been strong at home, on the assumption Utd beat Wigan Sunderland can end the season in a respectful position in the league which Id say Keane will be hammering home, not one for resting on his laurels, I think its £750,000 for each position in the premiership, this is potentially £1.5M for sunderland if results go their way.

Also think Derby are way over-priced @ 6.50, for a home match against relegation strugglers I dont buy into Reading steam-rolling anyone away from home regardless the league permutations.

[Mark H]

Portsmouth v Fulham

Harry Redknapp says he will put out a strong side to face Fulham but some of his comments can be interpreted both ways "I will put out a strong team" "It's not the end of the world if we lose to Fulham" "I could have rested players, Many do" "None of my players who are not 100% fit will play" and so on. So he's covered all his bases in true Harry style. Doubts still over James, Muntari and other important players while opponents Fulham will be full strength. They look to be flying recently and of course have motivation on their side. However let's bear in mind their record on the road this season. Yes 2 wins all season. Then look at Pompey's home record. Only 1 defeat in 9 at Fratton Park for Harry's men. Yes they have some injuries and doubts over motivation but one definite is that Defoe will play and he is a danger to any defence particularly one as porous as Fulhams. If you are a value bettor you would laugh at the books making Fulham favourites here and lay them to your hearts content. Otherwise skip the match entirely.

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by SeanMac

I think i get what your saying mate , maybe not but i get to these conclusions by going through the stats and knowing that minus the chelsea game man utd havent been beat in 10 league games , there last meeting with wigan ended in a 4-0 humping , if they win they win the league , plus theres the fact that Wigan have absoulutely nothing to play for , steve bruce is a man utd man so i doubt he will be going gung ho

With Chelsea we have a team that havent been beatin in the league in 20 games , you need to go back to before xmas to see their last defeat , they have won their last 3 , a win could give them the league , they are playing a Bolton team that have all but guareenteed safety , i think chelsea will have two much quality for Bolton on the day Also i think its important to note for people who are going for a first goalscorer this week that in there last 4 games , chelsea have scored 6 goals , all of which have came from midfielders
Big Double Chelsea and Man Utd

Because I'm aiming for a yield of over 10% such short prices rarely interest me(I have dabbled in the hot favourite system in the past). Of course there are occasions when 1.4 can represent value But IMO the best value bets in soccer occur in the range 1.8 to 3. I would concede that a favourite/londshot bias exist in soccer betting. But with analysis we should be looking for errors in the oddslines anyway. I note, week after week, obvious selections are put up as bets without any real regard to the price/value situation or any attempt to find the best odds available.

Anyway good luck with your bets In all probability the Chelsea/Man U double will oblige But in the long run such bets IMO will not yield much profit if any.

For me this weekend just 3 bets to finish off this season Portmouth(half nomal stake), Derby(small bet) and Juventus. These 3 have been taken at the best odds 2 days ago.

[SB162002]

Everton and Newcastle to draw at 12/5 also correct score 1-1
Everton unlikely to go all out for the win seeing as they only need a draw to qualify for Europe
West Ham and Villa to draw at 9/4 also correct score 0-0
meaningless game and both sets of players likley to thinking more about holidays than playing football
Spurs and Liverpool to draw at 12/5 also correct score 2-2
Another meaningless game but two attack minded sides might sign off in style

Small stakes this weekend because its the last games and anything could really happen

[SeanMac]

Originally Posted by Tulenos

The ManU/Chelsea odds are inflated like hell - and even if you want to jump on such odds, especially in a double, consider that there is usually very good knowledge on the bench on what is going on on the other pitch - say one team is three up @ HT while the other one's drawing... This is no conspiracy theory, just a note that such sure-fire bankers usually have a bit more to them than just the must win situation

get what your saying here mate , thats why im hoping chelsea take the lead first, so man utd know they must get the job done

[Carl]

Birmingham v Blackburn

H2H's
7 Oct 07 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 2 - 1 Birmingham City
26 Sep 07 League Cup Blackburn Rovers 3 - 0 Birmingham City
19 Apr 06 Premiership Birmingham City 2 - 1 Blackburn Rovers
22 Oct 05 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 2 - 0 Birmingham City
30 Apr 05 Premiership Birmingham City 2 - 1 Blackburn Rovers
21 Nov 04 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 3 - 3 Birmingham City
15 May 04 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 1 - 1 Birmingham City
6 Dec 03 Premiership Birmingham City 0 - 4 Blackburn Rovers
18 Jan 03 Premiership Blackburn Rovers 1 - 1 Birmingham City
24 Aug 02 Premiership Birmingham City 0 - 1 Blackburn Rovers

Even a home advantage may not be enough against an in-form Rovers side who are still fighting for a UEFA spot via the intermofo, Mark Hughes has said that he's happy for his team to be going into the last game with something to play for. Birmingham will want to get a result to stop them going down but I just think Rovers can scrap with the best of them and I think Brum will lose this and go down. Brum only had 2 shots off target against Fulham and NO shots on target, compare that against a Rovers side who had 21 shots against Derby, 10 on target and 11 off.

Rovers 13/5 with VCBet imho is a steal.

Portsmouth & Blackburn both to win 1-0 @ 80/1 & Santa Cruz Roque TSA @ 6/4 VCBet

[Carl]

Chelsea & Man Utd both to win 2-0 @ 50/1 with VCBet is worth a couple of quid.

[tougher than the rest]

I reckon everyone has the point about Portsmouth vs Fulham but let me add just one thing. The situation before this game is somehow very similar to the 2nd game Zenit vs Bayern. Of course Zenit had the motivation but they also had some key players injured. On the other hand Bayern was expected to come out strong with Toni returning from suspension and win with ease. And what happened ? Fulham need this one badly but it doesn't justify ridiculous odds for their opponents. My opinion - are visitors going to win they could do it with 2 goals margin and vice versa. Therefore Fulham 2-0, 3-1 and Portsmouth 2-0 and 3-1. Speculative but i keep my stakes low