England: Premier League Ante-Post 2009/10 Season

[aliando]

links to latest odds provided below

this thread is to include all season long bets

reasoning for your bets in this thread will be expected - otherwise they can be posted here: 2009/10 season bets


Winner

Finish Bottom

Top 2

Top 3

Top 4

Top 6

Winner w/o Big 4

Relegation

To Stay Up


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[AK1979]

Wigan to get relegated @ 6/1 sportingbet

They will have lost the spine of their side since January, with the departures of Heskey, Palacios in the transfer window and the imminent departures of Zaki, Valenica and now Steve Bruce. Their form in the 2nd half of the season was poor. They finished the last 8 games of the season with a 1-1-6 record and only won 3 of their last 18 games, against strugglers Sunderland, Hull and Portsmouth.

They will get money from the sale of Valencai and reinvestment will be needed but whether they can attract players of the quality of those departed remains to be seen. A likely new manager further muddies the waters. 6/1 looks big to me.


Portsmouth to get relegated @ 7 /1 bluesq

Another side who has been weakended throughout the course of last year and whilst Wigan may have money to spend from the sale of Valencia, Portsmouth are reportedly in financial trouble. They too finished the season poorly, winning only 4 of their last 20 games, blanking in 6 of their last 9. Their historically solid defence is ageing and has been leaky. Johnson and Kranjcar could potentially leave and its hard to see players of that quality coming in.

[Shipsupstreets]

Have to agree with AK1979 regarding Portsmouth. Skybet were briefly going 8/1 this morning, but that's down to 11/2. BlueSQ have trimmed to 6s – and they've limited my stake at that price.

If Hart gets the job full-time it'll smack of doing it on the cheap, and the big earners are sure to leave since the club has already said that the wage bill has to come down. The debt is being dealt with, but they still have one of the widest gaps between income and wages in the Prem. There is no suitor on the horizon and there are better 'investment' prospects.

I think fair value is somewhere around 7/2. VCBet are going 25/1 for Portsmouth rock bottom and that's attractive also.

[Jase82]

It saddens me to say this.....but I too am in agreement that our long overdue stay in the EPL may be nearing it's end. With the relegation of Newcastle and Middlesbrough, the league is likely to become much more competetive. Burnley, Birmingham, Wolves, Stoke, Sunderland, Bolton, Pompey, Wigan and Hull are all going to be considered relegation material. And for all very good reasons.

Kanu, Sean Davis, Hermann Hreidarsson, Linvoy Primus (Although he will remain at the club in an ambassadorial role) and Sol Campbell are all likely to be leaving this summer as their contracts have ended. Add to that Jermain Pennant, who has been told he can return to Liverpool after an unsuccessful loan spell. I expect Pele, who is on loan from Porto to leave because he hasn't played a single game after a pointless loan spell. Angelos Basinas has hardly featured and I don't expect him to be around for much longer because following the signing of Aaron Mokoena, we will have at least 4 holding midfielders.

Our chairman, Peter Storrie has recently stated that a buyer for the club will be found by the end of July, which will be too late.

Whoever our next manager is will need to know how much money there is available to spend on new players. Although, I expect Paul Hart to be given the role purely because we don't appear to be able to afford anyone of a decent calibre.

The big question will be if we can hold on to Glen Johnson and Niko Kranjcar. I'd add Peter Crouch to that, but I don't think any other side in the EPL would be daft enough to spend anywhere near £10 million on him. With Redknapp having money to spend this summer I could see one or both of those players leaving for Spurs.

The appointment of Paul Hart as manager is a massive backward step. He has been initially tasked with getting our wage bill down by 20%. Sylvain Distin is a top earner on £60K a week, although his contract isn't up, I could see him leaving in order to balance the books. A vast majority of our signings will be free transfers unless we come into a vast amount of money.

I can't see us making any more big money signings. The days of us going out and spending upwards of £5 million are long gone.

The only positive I can speak of is IF we get sold early, the buyer might see sense and appoint a proven manager. I can't feel optimistic about a manager that hasn't got the experience at this level and hasn't won anything at any level.

Depressing times ahead.......

[Rockman]

Any book offer odds for the all 3 promoted teams not to be relegated?

[AK1979]

This could scupper the bet. If only i'd have held on for a few hours!! You have to laugh

Portsmouth on brink of takeover

By Mandeep Sanghera Al Fahim helped broker the deal which saw Man City taken over Portsmouth are close to being taken over by United Arab Emirates businessman Sulaiman Al Fahim, BBC Sport understands. Al Fahim was the frontman for Abu Dhabi United Group when it took over Manchester City in September 2008. He is believed to held talks with Pompey owner Alexandre Gaydamak at the Champions League final in Rome. Pompey, who avoided relegation from the Premier League this season, have yet to make any comment on the takeover. Gaydamak stated late last year that he wanted to sell the club. He revealed he had rejected two offers for the south coast outfit as he wanted to sell to a buyer who would be committed to funding a new stadium and training ground for the club. Gaydamak initially bought into Pompey as joint owner in January 2006 when he struck a deal with then-chairman Milan Mandaric. He then bought out Mandaric, who now owns Leicester City, for about £32m. Under the Franco-Russian's ownership the club won the 2008 FA Cup but he has said he can "no longer invest the time required to oversee the running of the club".

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by AK1979

This could scupper the bet. If only i'd have held on for a few hours!! You have to laugh

Just saw this......

It appears the buyer may have been waiting to see if we would be relegated this season.

I hope he moves Paul Hart back to the youth team, signs up Sven and takes us back to the dizzy hights of 9th in the EPL.

[Caveman]

so "surprisingly" no Pompey relegation talks here anymore? Hail all fat rich Arabs

[SpurMan]

Originally Posted by Caveman

so "surprisingly" no Pompey relegation talks here anymore? Hail all fat rich Arabs

Well talking of arabs makes me think of Man City. Not sure their fans would hail rich arabs just yet. In fact looking at these early prices I'm very surprised they are favourites for winner without top 4, and as low as 25/1 for the title. They have already had some cash splashed, and it didn't really do them all that much good in the season just gone.

In the w/o top 4 market the 4/1 about Everton looks much better value. A consistent side with a good manager in David Moyes is my idea of a 5th place finisher. Spurs at 4's makes a bit of appeal, as long as Harry can keep working his magic. (Though this long suffering Spurs fan would be satisfied with 6th, and I do think Everton have a better all round side) Villa on the other hand to me look a stone cold lay at the same price. They always fall away as they haven't got the strength in depth of Everton etc, though I would admit they were closer this year. Loss of Nielsen though will be a big gap in their side, as was proved with their form after Xmas.

Fulham might be worth a dabble for relegation too. The high finish of this year brings Europe, which has been a real millstone round the neck of some of the smaller clubs lucky enough to get through. Classic example was this year with Spurs, who are a much bigger club, and they had trouble. Harry had to sacrifice UEFA cup for survival, and if Fulham have a bad start, they will need to do the same, but the revamped Europa league will mean quite a few european games regardless. With a small squad, this could prove trouble. at 14/1, that looks a bit of value....

[Caveman]

once upon a time English teams were financially independent and their supporters could afford tickets, proud of being an important piece of a traditional team. Now majority of teams are nearly insolvent despite the fact of huge amounts given by EPL board annually, due to Pay TV revenues and merchandising. Buying best players all over the world year after year is not a big art, when you can't afford to pay them wages without making minus cos you didn't calculate the seasonal gains correctly (ManU, Chelsea and Liverpool) or just cos you don't reach utopian aims like European spot even with overpaid and overrated players (like Man City). So rich Russian Oligarchs, US or Arab Investors buy and run a traditional club like their personal toy, hold it several years and if they get bored or see good profit opportunity they sell a club with great tradition to much richer investors (Liverpool are the next...)
You see same thing at big Italian,French, German or Spanish clubs, so I don't know if this is the future of modern Football, but I don't like it. I don't like to pay monthly charges to watch football and get same entertainment like my father watched in free TV. I don't like it, that even middle-class families can't afford a nice "football Saturday" with their kids live in stadium anymore. I don't like it to see almost no domestic faces in English, Spanish,French, German or Italian teams, how could supporters identify themselves with "their" club, if there aren't any players from their town or region anymore in first team? I don't like to see faces of football players on everything I eat, wear, read or consume otherwise. They should concentrate on playing ball instead of making photo shootings, advertising spots etc. Perhaps majority of ppl accepted the way it seems to be, but it worked before this whole crap for decades, why should it not work in future. I don't like it...

[RB]

Everton W/O the big 4 @ 9/2 Paddy Power

This price looks massive, as although Spurs/City/Villa will all improve their squads over the summer, Moyes has this team going the right direction and they play in such a good spirit they are vey hard to break down and get some remarkable results. A couple of half decent signings and this side, under the managerial genius of David Moyes, should see Everton be there or thereabouts. 9/2 certainly seems huge WO the big 4.

[BOSS007]

Hi Guys and girls!!! I have already bet for next season: Stoke for relegation, west brom,Norwich,Oxford, all for promotion. A £100 accumaltor will net £9000. Any views?

[kevshat]

My view would be if you like it, open a Skybet account where it will pay you £10893.00

[AJ]

Originally Posted by Rule Britannia

Everton W/O the big 4 @ 9/2 Paddy Power

This price looks massive, as although Spurs/City/Villa will all improve their squads over the summer, Moyes has this team going the right direction and they play in such a good spirit they are vey hard to break down and get some remarkable results. A couple of half decent signings and this side, under the managerial genius of David Moyes, should see Everton be there or thereabouts. 9/2 certainly seems huge WO the big 4.

Don't like it at all, sorry.

They don't have the financial clout of Villa or City, both of whom will spend big. I forsee 9th or 10th for Everton next season

[RB]

Originally Posted by AJ

Don't like it at all, sorry.

They don't have the financial clout of Villa or City, both of whom will spend big. I forsee 9th or 10th for Everton next season

City will spend big, no doubt. Doubt they will instantly gel though.
Villa will need to replace Barry and also the loss of Laursen is a massive blow. Again, new signings coming in will need to gel.
Everton will sell very few, maybe add 1 or 2 new faces. Settled squad, great manager and a fantastic team spirit. City in particular, may need another season before breaking into the top 5/6. (even with multiple top class signings).

[aliando]

Originally Posted by BOSS007

Hi Guys and girls!!! I have already bet for next season: Stoke for relegation, west brom,Norwich,Oxford, all for promotion. A £100 accumaltor will net £9000. Any views?

you're missing you're own reasoning - and please keep the reasoning in the relevant threads

[JimmyHarris1980]

Originally Posted by AJ

Don't like it at all, sorry.

They don't have the financial clout of Villa or City, both of whom will spend big. I forsee 9th or 10th for Everton next season

I agree that Everton may struggle to finish 5th again next year. Moyes has been fantastic and the team spirit he has established at the club is worthy of the highest praise. However, how long can they continue to swim against the increasingly high tide of their cash rich rivals? City are going in the right direction, decent first eleven and the squad is getting some depth to it now. Spurs must be due a decent season and even Villa have the muscle to beat Everton in the transfer market. Bill Kenwright knows Everton are desperate for financial injection and Moyes cannot continue to defy the odds, money will out in the end its just a sad fact of the modern game.

[Jk]

Originally Posted by JimmyHarris1980

I agree that Everton may struggle to finish 5th again next year. Moyes has been fantastic and the team spirit he has established at the club is worthy of the highest praise. However, how long can they continue to swim against the increasingly high tide of their cash rich rivals? City are going in the right direction, decent first eleven and the squad is getting some depth to it now. Spurs must be due a decent season and even Villa have the muscle to beat Everton in the transfer market. Bill Kenwright knows Everton are desperate for financial injection and Moyes cannot continue to defy the odds, money will out in the end its just a sad fact of the modern game.

Money spent doesnt mean that much imo. For example City have just spent £12m on Barry, a player that played for Villa, who finished below Everton, albeit one of their better players. Tottenham have for years spent millions and produced nothing but one good season where they finished 5th.

Everton have a great squad and a young developing one at that. Vaughan, Anichebe, Rodwell, Gosling, Feillani should all come on this year, and the highly rated Jose Baxter might even get a few games. Then the key is their best players, Arteta, Cahill, Lescott, Osman, Saha, Yukubu are all hitting their prime ages.

There's a good balance to their squad, and in Moyes they have a manager that is capable of keeping that team spirit. I can't see them selling many players this summer and the addition of one or two squad players could see them putting in another good season.


Everton W/O the big 4 @ 9/2 Paddy Power looks good to me.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Money spent doesnt mean that much imo.

Then why do the clubs who spend the most money finish at the top of the league every season. Chelsea won two titles based on money, Real Madrid three champions leagues, Lazio who were nowhere near in Serie A practically bought the championship. Money means more than anything, sure it is not the be all and end all but it is the foundation from which all other elements can be built upon. Spurs finished 5th two seasons running, and were fourth all the way until the last game for one of those campaigns. Don't want to get into an argument but clearly the evidence suggests that my reasoning is correct here. 11/4 City vs 9/2 Everton, its City all the way at those prices.

[Toronto_Mike]

Originally Posted by JimmyHarris1980

Money spent doesnt mean that much imo.

Then why do the clubs who spend the most money finish at the top of the league every season. Chelsea won two titles based on money, Real Madrid three champions leagues, Lazio who were nowhere near in Serie A practically bought the championship. Money means more than anything, sure it is not the be all and end all but it is the foundation from which all other elements can be built upon. Spurs finished 5th two seasons running, and were fourth all the way until the last game for one of those campaigns. Don't want to get into an argument but clearly the evidence suggests that my reasoning is correct here. 11/4 City vs 9/2 Everton, its City all the way at those prices.

When was the last time you saw this?

Money is important but it's how you spend it. Spurs have been woeful in the transfer market, but they spend so much. Everton on the other hand have a lack of funds but when they do buy, they get gems.

So you tell me with a team like Utd who do have money they don't buy an entire new squad, they buy what they need, sure they may spend X amount of money on one player but that player becomes an integral part of the team.

As for Villa, until MON shows me his intent in solidifying that backline, our defense will be crocked. He's probably slamming his head for letting Cahill leave. Now we lost a key midfielder, dont have a 20 goal striker, so I find it hard press to see Villa doing any better than Everton.