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03-10-2006, 22:53
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| -   Join Date: 12 Aug 2005 Age: 32
Posts: 21,598
|  England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 Nationwide Conference North
Nationwide Conference South
Ryman Premier
Southern Premier
Unibond Premier League
__________________ the charity trail-http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/s...d=1#post631758 Quote:
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04-10-2006, 07:37
| #2 (permalink) |
| God Punter Join Date: 29 Oct 2004 Age: 44
Posts: 3,860
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 Took a point yesterday on 6/5 Lewes. Adding another at 5/4 with Stan James. Tonbridge should see off Leyton and I managed to get 4pts on at 4/7 with Bet365, although that price was soon history. In the midweek thread, Ivor pointed out that Kettering are value at 11/10 with Stan James for the trip to Alfreton. I agree wholeheartedly with that - Alfreton have been fairly secure at home over the season, but they have gone into something of a dip, and I can't see them holding out against a very attack-minded Kettering who have Darren Caskey fit and looking useful. |
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04-10-2006, 15:01
| #3 (permalink) |
| God Punter Join Date: 29 Oct 2004 Age: 44
Posts: 3,860
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 This weekend's books are starting to fill out and I'm up for a couple more tickles: Radcliffe to beat Frickley at 11/8 (Stan James, Skybet) Marine to win at Whitby (2/1 Stan James, Skybet) Each for a point. Stan James is listing the latter fixture as 'Whitby v Burscough'. Whitby were widely reported as having won at Mossley last night; in fact, they lost 2-0. (This was nothing compared to the shock when I saw 'Bridlington 9-1 Stocksbridge PS' - it was t'other way round.) |
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04-10-2006, 20:25
| #5 (permalink) |
| God Punter Join Date: 29 Oct 2004 Age: 44
Posts: 3,860
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 And one for Friday: I can't help thinking there is a bit of value in Nuneaton at Vauxhall Motors, who've gone off the boil since Stuart Whittaker got injured. Nuneaton perhaps qualify as the club most hated by their own fans at the moment, but Duane Darby is back in form and they are unbeaten in four after a terrible start. 2/1 has a bit of value. A point with Stan James. |
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04-10-2006, 22:19
| #6 (permalink) |
| God Punter Join Date: 29 Oct 2004 Age: 44
Posts: 3,860
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 One very tasty price presenting itself on the Step 4s with Bwin. In Unibond 1 Shepshed at 2.0 visit Bridlington. The hosts are managerless, chairman-less and without a win in eight. They lost 9-1 at home last night. Shepshed are not a great side, but they're a form side - unbeaten in five (4-1-0) and have won on the road at Rossendale, Alsager, Wakefield and Kidsgrove. Of course, Brid will be pulling up trees to prevent anything like a repeat of the Stocksbridge game, but I don't think they have enough to hold Shepshed. Spirits are low at the club and that won't change anytime soon. Elsewhere, Wivenhoe at 2.35 should have the drop on Tilbury in Ryman 1 N. They're mid table, but they've come through some tricky games against the top sides with honour intact. Tilbury - bar an amazing win at Canvey I - haven't been great, and are second bottom, having lost all three home games this season. |
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05-10-2006, 08:24
| #7 (permalink) |
| God Punter Join Date: 29 Oct 2004 Age: 44
Posts: 3,860
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 Bit more on the weekend plays... Firstly, the value in Tonbridge has gone, though the 4/7 Bet365 offered, which I posted here on Tuesday, was a great punt while it held. Tonbridge are likely to be tired after a lot of football in recent weeks, whereas Leyton have had it quiet since the drubbing by Heybridge, but who knows what sort of side they will put out? The Leyton Guardian last week was listing five players as having been shown the door, four of whom played a part in their last win at Folkestone. The paper says: "Those who have left include Steve West, Danny Hill, Dean Palmer, James Bunn and James Hasell while others could be on their way in the next few weeks if events on the pitch don't improve." Improve? These players were good enough to get them top five. Now West has signed for Eastleigh, Palmer has a few clubs courting him, and Hasell's not a bad keeper. The official website shows a squad of 16, with a few decent players still in there, and probably some new bodies coming in for the weekend. Costas assistant Kevin Wilkins says: "We had to question the commitment of some of the players. That has seen a few leave over the last week while we look to change things around. Of course it will take time for new people to come in a settle in the side." That means they will be pretty makeshift over the next few weeks: and while - as expected - the bottom hasn't fallen out of Leyton FC, they are ones to oppose, as PL's non-league thread has done consistently, and profitably, over recent weeks. Secondly, BandW have trimmed Shepshed and Wivenhoe. Lewes v Bishop's Stortford (Friday, 5/4 Stan James, 2pts) I've a point at 6/5 and a point at the better price. As Ivor has pointed out, there are signs that Lewes are shrugging off the early-season cobwebs and finding a bit of form. Key for me is they are not as vulnerable as they have been: they've a great attack, but (in my view) an unbalanced squad that doesn't pay much heed to keeping teams out at the other end. Bishop's have a reasonable claim to be the team of the season so far, but even with a fully fit squad they'll have their hands full I think. Even if key men return on Friday they won't be match fit. Nuneaton Borough at Vauxhall Motors (Friday, Stan James, 2/1 1pt) Sixth plays 17th, though the roles are surprisingly reversed from what was expected pre-season. Blyth and Worcester are among Vaux's scalps, so they are no mugs, but a defeat at Harrogate and a loss at Witton in the cup to nil reveals that they are creating few chances. The win against Worcester, the game before, was fortunate too, turning on the dismissal of Mark Danks when the visitors were in control. Lee Furlong is their dangerman up front, and creative force Stuart Whittaker may return, but I think Nuneaton are worth a punt. They are not as bad as their fans think they are, though it's fair to say they were very poor in August. Four unbeaten in the league, including the scalp of Kettering, and a big cup win, will have boosted the confidence of a decent squad. And I reckon this a good time to be meeting Vauxhall Motors. Radcliffe Borough at home to Frickley Athletic (Saturday, 11/8 Stan James, Skybet 1pt) As I pointed out a couple of weeks back, the loss of manager Gary Marrow is a real blow to Frickley. I'd a expect a few players to follow Marrow to Grantham - they are in talks with a keeper who may or may not be Frickley's Gary Ingham, who was the only Athletic player to emerge with much credit from the defeat to Staly midweek. (Grantham, incidentally, played without a recognised keeper against Ilkeston on Tuesday, when the present No1 got wind of the fact that someone else might be coming in and threw his toys out of the pram - explains the 4-0 drubbing). It's five straight defeats with 15 conceded and no clean sheets all season for Frickley. Radcliffe are struggling too, but the away draw at Burscough on Tuesday says something about their spirit. (Any thoughts on this one deets?) Marine at Whitby (Saturday, 2/1 Stan James, Skybet 1pt) The newswires gave Whitby a 2-0 win on Tuesday: didn't happen - they lost 2-0 to a Mossley side who undid them with pace up front. Marine have bags of that. Their last three away have been wins at Fleetwood and Matlock, and a draw at Burscough - that's a top five portfolio. Whitby are in decent form themselves, but I don't believe they are performing as well as results suggest - Kendall and Mossley outplayed them at home for long spells. Bath City at Cheshunt (Saturday, 11/10 Stan James, 1pt) Bath, like Nuneaton, are suffering from FES - fans' expectation syndrome - but aren't nearly as poor as their fans think. They boast a 3-1-0 record away and that's enough to tempt me against a side that are 2-0-2 at home. Cheshunt did well to see off Worthing in a cup replay, but one goal in 180 minutes against a side that has conceded on average every 37 minutes this season, is actually quite poor. I expect Bath to react to their cup replay defeat positively. (1-10 scale) |
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05-10-2006, 14:00
| #9 (permalink) |
| God Punter Join Date: 29 Oct 2004 Age: 44
Posts: 3,860
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 GH - I haven't worked it out this season. On the tips I post here I am finally in profit though, after a tricky start to the season, by about 8 or 9 points ex stake (landing a five out of five, a 4/1 shot and a 5/1 shot in the past couple of weeks have helped!). I also prefer to spread risk over a number of punts, rather than go all in for just one. For me, it's all about a bottom-line profit target, which I set myself every season - one pre-Xmas and one after (I usually do better after) - and I've a bit to do yet to get there, though there's plenty of time. Rightly, though, a forum like this disuades people from talking pounds and pennies, as each punter has their own resources and targets. |
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05-10-2006, 19:30
| #10 (permalink) |
| Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 09 Jun 2005
Posts: 543
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 hayes vs WELLING UTD,13/10,CORAL. one o' clock kick off here at church road and i fancy the wings to take all 3 points back to the south east london suburbs. As i stated on here pre-season i expect the hayes boys to go down this season although to be fair kevin hill has not been doing a bad job with the resources at hand,which are on the miniscule side.And michael bartley is one who has always given the impression that he could go onto better things.I STILL EXPECT hayes to go down nonetheless. The wings are always hard to beat under the excellent adrian pennock,and the play-offs are definately an achievable aim this season.T he wings do like to pass and play but they are also underscored by a strong work ethic,and they can mix it with the best of them if required.You need that bit of toughness to win at places like church road. Up front danny kedwell is top drawer at this level,he has to be snapped up sooner or later,i know that brentford were keen on him after an initial trial,last season.Backed up by che stedthardt and the midfield craft of martin carthy,i think that the wings can oblige in deepest west london. |
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05-10-2006, 20:34
| #11 (permalink) |
| Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 09 Jun 2005
Posts: 543
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 staines vs CHELMSFORD CITY,13/10, A very tasty looking prospect in store here as 2 good footballing side go head to head and the staines boys are in good form,after winning 2 away on the road and in the westview cup against hendon. Despiite that good form,i am going to side with jeff king's boys here.It is still a team in transition but it is begiining to take shape and i do not doubt that there will be a couple of additions still to come. Some teams may have viewed the cup replay against dereham as an unneccessay distraction but i am of the opinion that jeff king and glen pennyfather will have welcomed the extra game-time to further gell the new signings together. As it is when you have the quality of the evervescent jeff minton up front allied to the power of former staines favourite fiston manuella and the pace of knight:i just think that city can just edge a tricky game.It promises to be a belter,one that i would be witnessing,if i were not in istanbul this weekend.Goals are surely in prospect here. Good luck one and all. |
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05-10-2006, 20:47
| #12 (permalink) |
| God Punter Join Date: 29 Oct 2004 Age: 44
Posts: 3,860
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 GamblingH - wish you hadn't bloody asked about numbers! Been doing some working out and I'm actually just over 10 points up, which makes me better about a poor start to the season. But that's on over 93 points staked, so the yield isn't looking too great. The strike rate too, isn't very healthy - 34 winners, 38 losers. However, the territory I inhabit is Evs and above, so winners there do rack up - but whereas last season landing punts like Hitchin at 5/1 and opposing Leyton lumpily was the icing on the cake, so far this season it appears to be just the cake. Incidentally, those figures are only on punts where I put a staking plan. Sometimes I don't do that with the Step 4s, which still feel like a novelty, but would add five or six points to the profit total if I included them all. And if you look at all the Step 4s/Bwin recommends - those with a staking plan and those without - I've a bagged 16 correct out of 21. Still, it's early season, and it takes time to get into a groove. Plus I have a particular problem, which is spending the summer working out what will happen. Two months of research and chatter, and byu August I know the shape of things come April. That's bollox, of course, which is why I dropped 7pts on the first day of the season. Proof perhaps that rigid thinking is the enemy of punting, though I have to confess to still being guilty of following teams again and again in the markets based on what I learned in July, rather than what they're actually doing now. Each punter is different though, and for me the bottom line is the bottom line. Nothing else. Not being an internet 'tipster', not basking in the glory of a good week (okay, a little bit...) I suppose I have two main reasons for posting here. Firstly, it adds a sense of discipline to punting: if I can go public with a punt, then I must feel confident about it. I also invariably appear with a confessional on how I've done, win or lose - there's no point in hiding because the stuff is already in the public domain, but it concentrates the mind knowing that I have to tell people that I've stunk the place out on Saturday. And there are plenty of people wiser and better than me to tell me when my thinking is fudgy, which is all good and healthy. That brings me on to the second reason why Punter's Lounge is a great place: I've said this before but you learn an awful lot from this thread about the mechanics of punting. It's the ideas and information that matter to me as much as the tips. Let me single out MDP, whose stuff this season has been an absolute pleasure to read. And there's plenty more out there over the seasons whose contributions have been immense, who've made me a better punter, which means they've made me more profit than I would have got otherwise. I owe plenty of beers to Ivor and deets, to name but two. Where was I? Yes, my season's strike rate's poor and my yield's nothing to get excited about, but I'm in profit for now. That's the PL non-league thread mission statement: the bottom line is the bottom line. |
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05-10-2006, 23:49
| #13 (permalink) |
| Non League Punter Join Date: 02 Dec 2005
Posts: 246
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 Fair play to you Ships, i don't post on here often enough but i regularly follow what you say and have come up with replica fancies (Bath this week e.g) that i like the look of aswell. I lose a lot as well and am hopefully coming out of a bad run now after the Heybridge and F.a Cup results coming in recently. Keep up the good work Ships. Corals on Bishopsgate are doing alright out of me lately, but what i'm backing online is keeping me just about in profit! |
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06-10-2006, 07:49
| #14 (permalink) |
| God Punter Join Date: 29 Oct 2004 Age: 44
Posts: 3,860
| Re: England: Non-Leagues Oct 6-7 Steve West, one of the Leyton departees, is quoted in the NLP today, saying that poor performances had nothing to do with him and others quitting Leyton - "We were told by the club that they couldn't afford to keep us and if we wanted to |
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