England: Non-League Apr 21

[Shipsupstreets]

One Step 4 for me so far. In Unibond 1, Bradford Park Avenue are a bit of value at 2.55 to beat Buxton. Buxton were my 14/1 EW recommend back in August, and they have had a superb season. But in the immediate aftermath of winning the pot, and with a cup final on Monday, I think they may not be at 100% facing a BPA side who, as I have pointed out on here before, are looking good after a sudden takeover. Signings include Kevin Sanasay, who has been a star at Unibond Prem level and is capable in Conference North. If they get up via the play-offs, I fancy them to do quite well a level higher. They are not yet nailed on for a play-off spot, but a win would see to that. And with five straight wins at home they'll relish the chance to prove themselves against the division's finest. It's Buxton, I think, who might not fancy it.

[mid devon punter]

It's a difficult week to pick out any value, same as last week really, too many clubs with something still to play for and too many players playing for contracts.

I think in value there may just be a glimmer of hope with backing Ashton United to completely kill of Hednesford's season in Staffordshire tommorow.

The 9/2 on offer skybet , gives ample room for a saver on the draw (best price 3/1)

Following a great November and December, Hednesford look set to win promotion to a level such a club deserves, sitting pretty in the league, perhaps they got complacent ?. A massive fall in fortune has seen the club pick up just 2 wins in their last 18 matches and no wins at all in the last 8. It must be like watching tivvy....poor sods!

Mondays 2.2 home draw with Guisley all but ended any play off aspirations and so a miserable end to the season cannot come quick enough for the fomer Conference team.

Monday did have 1 glimmer of hope, 2 goals, their first in 4 matches

Ashton are not much better, in fact they are probably worse, but did win last time out at home to Lincoln.

This week has seen the appointment of Danny Johnson and his assistent, poached from Trafford, who have had a good season.

Will the extra motivation make the difference, these players have just 3 games to get out of trouble, still very possible and 3 games to be part of Johnsons plans for next season

enough motivation ? possibly, certainly good value at 9/2

Hednesford v Ashton
9/2 Skybet
1.5 points (plus 3/1 saver on draw)
points ratio 0-10

mdp

[Belly77]

Does anyone else like the look of Burton away at Northwich? The Vics have secured their safety for the season and are struggling through their back log of fixtures. They played twice in midweek as well as last Saturday last Weds last Monday and then last Saturday.

Burton are desperate for a win to bolster their play off push and I can see them taking full advantage over a fatigued Vics.

Their away form isn't great but they must be due an away win.

[Bedlam]

Bwin have Kingstonian at an incredible 11.00 to beat Maidstone! I don't know how they arrived at those odds, but Maidstone have been really struggling to hold on to their top spot for a few weeks now, always finding new ways to shoot themselves in the foot, including defeats to Chatham & Met Police. At the same time, Kingstonian have gone 5 unbeaten including a very creditable win at Leatherhead.
This division has become known as 'the league that nobody want's to win' as every team that has hit the top-spot has fallen away again. The Stones seemed to have the division tied up a few weeks ago when they went 5 points clear with games in hand, but they have been stumbling towards the finishing line of late, and are only still top because their nearest challengers, Hastings have had similar 'yips'. Tooting are now breathing down Maidstone's necks & I think they'll win it!
I'm going to back Kingstonian 2x as the draw is 6.0!

[Bedlam]

I also like the look of Walton Casuals @ 6.5 to win at Dartford. Walton followed up their excellent win at Dulwich Hamlet last weekend with a draw at Tooting on Wednesday night. Dartford have been somewhat inconsistant at home this season probably due to visiting teams being 'up for it' when they see their nice new stadium!
I'm also tempted bt the 9.0 on offer about Corinthian Casuals at 'bottlers' Hastings.

[Shipsupstreets]

Bedlam - Excellent spots, Bedlam! Kingstonian and Walton Casuals are both fine picks!

I've taken a bit of Kingstonian to win at what is a stonking price - no draw savers for me. They are clearly second favourites tomorrow, even given Maidstone's winless wobble, but Alan Dowson has instilled a real sense of optimism at Kingsmeadow. With Bobby Trainer and Wes Goggin contracted for next season, and Simon Sobihy and Luke Garrard signing too, they have the makings of a very competitive squad, and Dowson is keen to keep them focused for the last couple of games - they've shown no signs of letting their standards slip, as Bedlam has pointed out. With one defeat away in six, I can't make them more than 3/1 shots to win this.

It's fair to add I want Maidstone to continue wobbling, as I am on Tooting for the pot at a decent price (tipped on here at 14/1 in Feb - since when they haven't lost). A hugely improved Ashford Town (it's happened at last!) host both the Stones and T&M next week, so this is going to the wire. Worth pointing out though that Tooting have to fit in a cup game with Bromley next week as well.

Ashford, then, are finally getting the results their squad deserves. Though they lost narrowly at Fleet this week, it was after a cup match with Bromley on Monday. I think the 6.5 to win at Dulwich is a little too much. Dulwich play some fine stuff but are struggling at Champion Hill and a relaxed Ashford don't deserve to be such a big number.

Walton Casuals have really impressed me of late and the price is tempring. But I just can't justify taking three huge speculations in one division!

[staffy]

Originally Posted by Belly77

Does anyone else like the look of Burton away at Northwich? The Vics have secured their safety for the season and are struggling through their back log of fixtures. They played twice in midweek as well as last Saturday last Weds last Monday and then last Saturday.

Burton are desperate for a win to bolster their play off push and I can see them taking full advantage over a fatigued Vics.

Their away form isn't great but they must be due an away win.

Saw Nowthwich in midweek down at stafford and they were poor.

Stafford played well and had about 70% of possession and were always in Dag half. I think Dag will struggle from now til end of season TBH.

[Bedlam]

I really think you're going to collect on Tooting,Ships. They are the form side at the moment & Maidstone are in desperate form, looking more like relegation candidates with Hastings unable to capitalise.

[Shipsupstreets]

Finished the day with a bit of profit - Gateshead, Walton & Hersham and Hyde all failed, but Wealdstone, Cambridge C and Hendon landed.

Had better days on the Step 4s. Bradford PA drew 0-0 at home to Buxton, and Ashford Town drew 3-3 at Dulwich (3-1 up with 2 mins left!).

[mid devon punter]

Hednesford finished 0-0 so I ended up completely scratch for the day

mdp

[Chalmers (SUFC)]

Good shouts on Banbury and Gloucester Piranha. Stuck them in a little double at about 6's!

[mid devon punter]

Due to the 3 way "who has the worse record" goes down rule in the 3 level 3 leagues, the position is now a lot clearer in terms of who can go down and should be considered for the rest of the season

Essentially the key here is the Ashford Middlesex can only reach 46 points in the Istmian Premier

Therefore

Only Wealdstone and Chesthunt can still go down from the Southern Premier

Only Ashton and Leek can go down from the Northern Premier

...everyone else, not aleady relegated is safe

mdp

[Shipsupstreets]

I forgot, in my flying visit this morning, to thank Piranha for Banbury! Cheers!

[Piranha]

Banbury & Gloucester gave me a good weekend and it would seem Merthyr were a little unlucky not to claim all the points against KL. But those two returned at nice prices so as a hairy overweight singer once said, two out of three aint bad.

MDP, as you point out, Chessy are not quite there yet so we will remain nervy for a few days yet.

Until Thursday anyway