England > Midweek > BlueSQ Prem Jan 28-31

[Shipsupstreets]

Monday 28 January 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Torquay Utd v Histon (19:45GMT)	7/10	14/5	22/5	104%	Details »
Hide « Torquay Utd v Histon
Tuesday 29 January 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Aldershot Town v Oxford Utd (19:45GMT)	8/11	12/5	4/1	107%	Details »
Hide « Aldershot Town v Oxford Utd
Burton Albion v Rush & Diam (19:45GMT)	8/11	13/5	7/2	108%	Details »
Hide « Burton Albion v Rush & Diam
Cambridge Utd v Exeter City (19:45GMT)	1/1	9/4	5/2	109%	Details »
Hide « Cambridge Utd v Exeter City
Thursday 31 January 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Altrincham Town v Woking (19:45GMT)	13/8	12/5	13/8	106%	Details »

[leespam]

Really considering Histon tomorrow night. Like the average punter, my knowledge at this level isn't the best so I'm probably way off the mark but can't see why Histon are as big as 5.4 on the exchanges. There's no doubting Torquay should be worthy favourites as they're right up there challenging for an automatic promotion place and have a formidable home record (9-1-2).

However, Histon aren't that bad themselves and have one of the league's better away records (8-2-5). They come into this game on the back of 2 consecutive wins (albeit after a run of 3 defeats) but the only thing stopping me is they seem to struggle away from home against the better sides in this division.

I'm looking at Torquay and they're seemingly struggling for goals at the moment (scored only 3 in their last 4 games) and have lost twice (to Cambridge and Burton) in their last 4 home games. Have had a nibble at something on Betfair but do Histon really have a realistic chance of nicking this one?

0.33pt Histon to beat Torquay 1-0 @ 19.5 (Betfair)

[allthethings]

Torquay set to debut Swindon duo Steve Adams and Kaid Mohamed as well as Accrington striker Roscoe Dsane.

Team news:

United should have Lee Mansell, who has recovered from a hamstring strain, back from injury, although striker Lee Phillips may need a fitness test after a knee problem.
Skipper Steve Woods is the only definite absentee - he is serving a one-match suspension.

Histon have signed attacking midfielder Jack Midson from Bishop's Stortford, and he is poised to make his debut for the Cambridgeshire club.

[Shipsupstreets]

Interesting stuff, ATT. The signings, including Midson, add some spice to this one. Roscoe needs no introduction to regulars on here, and he is really good signing for Torquay - adding an unpredictable element to their attack which they haven't really had this season. He knows Sills well from their Aldershot days - a pretty potent partneship who complemented each other well in a traditional smash'n'grab way. Steve Adams has dropped off my radar of late, but there is no doubt that he'll be useful at this level. Jack Midsom is an interesting signing for Histon; and something of a gamble. While he has quality moments, I'm not sure if he'll be able to light up a game at this level from the off.

[Shipsupstreets]

...and what those signings do mean is that there will be some potentially big shirt numbers out there for Torquay. Torquay shirt numbers at 28 look a potential buy with Sporting - IG and Spreadex haven't got shirt quotes out yet. It's risky if it's a turgid affair, as Histon will be looking to make it, but they aren't the tightest away from home. Goal expectations have to be pretty high for this fixture, and in these circumstances I think a high Torquay shirts make-up is possible. It's risky, but I'm a buyer.

[Shipsupstreets]

There's some value I think in the total goals spreads tonight - a buy at 2.9 with Sporting. The Torquay signings are excellent, and will no doubt help their cause tonight. But the issue of their poor defending hasn't been addressed, which is quite a gamble by Buckle - it looks like he has decided to outshoot and opponent. Histon are a stiff test - they keep it tight, and have some width that can exploit those areas where Torquay were poor against Burton. In fact, we might see a similar game to the one against Burton, with two important caveats: Torquay look stronger than that night, and Histo aren't as good as Burton in defensive positions. I'll wait for kick off, but I'll almost certainly be buying total goals.

[Shipsupstreets]

Roscoe wears 20 tonight. With Zebrowski 23, Steve Adams 24, Mark Ellis 25 and Kaid Mohamed 23 I'm happy to be on Torquay shirts, though it is still risky. Watch Chris Todd - wearing 6 - get a hat-trick!

[Shipsupstreets]

Midson on the bench for Histon.

[Shipsupstreets]

Decent first half, with Histon playing very well, though Patrick Ada is holding it together for them at the back. Torquay shirts is a sell at 18, so I can close with a ten point loss, but I think I'll stay in for ten minutes or so until the quote starts to drop. I do like total goals at 1.8 buy now.

[leespam]

Originally Posted by leespam

Really considering Histon tomorrow night. Like the average punter, my knowledge at this level isn't the best so I'm probably way off the mark but can't see why Histon are as big as 5.4 on the exchanges. There's no doubting Torquay should be worthy favourites as they're right up there challenging for an automatic promotion place and have a formidable home record (9-1-2).

However, Histon aren't that bad themselves and have one of the league's better away records (8-2-5). They come into this game on the back of 2 consecutive wins (albeit after a run of 3 defeats) but the only thing stopping me is they seem to struggle away from home against the better sides in this division.

I'm looking at Torquay and they're seemingly struggling for goals at the moment (scored only 3 in their last 4 games) and have lost twice (to Cambridge and Burton) in their last 4 home games. Have had a nibble at something on Betfair but do Histon really have a realistic chance of nicking this one?

0.33pt Histon to beat Torquay 1-0 @ 19.5 (Betfair)

Bit worried about mine. Histon look comfortable, but have laid some off at 9.4 just in case so I'm now guaranteed a profit either way.

[leespam]

Originally Posted by leespam

Bit worried about mine. Histon look comfortable, but have laid some off at 9.4 just in case so I'm now guaranteed a profit either way.

And right on cue, Torquay take the lead. Cheers Ships. It was your input which led me to lay it off. Hope you get a few more goals .

[Shipsupstreets]

Nice one Leespam! Sold out Torquay shirts for a loss, and bought total goals for a loss, so not a great night for me. Absorbing game mind, though the ref was pretty lenient. Strange that Torquay are back in the title hunt when they are playing their least effective football of the season, although over the coming weeks I think we'll see D'Sane make a difference.

[allthethings]

Soccer - Burton Albion/Rushden and D - total Over 2½ (-109)
for the regulation time held on Jan 29 at 2:45pm [pending]

These two played to a 0-0 draw in September, but I think the stats favor an over here. Burton have gone over in five of their last six, Rushden three of last four. Burton (8-2-3, 26-17 at home) have the tendency I like the most: Almost always score, almost always concede (13 clean sheets in their 54 'sides'). Rushden away (4-4-6, 21-23 goals) can give up goals in bunches; they've gone over in six of their last seven away, and their last clean sheet on their travels was March 31, 2007 (18 straight).

[Karthago]

Hi guys! I am really thinking of putting some money on Woking tonight. The Cardinals are keen on good results now at least the coach said it before. The team is complete so far they are better against weaker rivals and comparing with the opponent's missing players they can win. True, Altrincham is in a danger zone just one point and one plus match is the difference between them and the 21st Farsley. But Celtic will play in Exeter this weekend with hardly any chances so I think the home siders could afford another loss against a better team. They have conceded 15 goals in their last 6 games which means they are vulnerable. The home form is scary as well just Kidderminster were beaten in the mid of January during the last 6 home matches. Their last battle ended a 3-2 win for the Woks at Altrincham. Woking are waking up tonight
Or You think else guys?

[Karthago]

The odd is 2.62 for Woking at WillHill which seems to me a quite valuable one.
I think I risk it.
My pick: Woking 2.62 (WillHill)

[Roskos]

Originally Posted by Karthago

The odd is 2.62 for Woking at WillHill which seems to me a quite valuable one.
I think I risk it.
My pick: Woking 2.62 (WillHill)

I’m with Karthago for tonight game, but I want to explode this game with additional bets:

Woking @ 2.60 BlueSQ 2/10
Woking @ (0) 1.95 BlueSQ 4/10
* Woking has a full squad and I expect that they will play with the same side that started against Crawley. After two wins and a draw in their last three league games, they will be looking to pick up at least a point in tonight game to continue this positive run. Either of Jason Norville or Marvin Morgan will fancy their chances of taking advantage of absent of Darren Tinson in Altrincham’s defense. He is very important and experienced (at this level of football) central defender for them. Altrincham have a bad record in home games: 3/2/10 18-34. However, their recent league form has improved, as their records are: 2/1/2 7-10. A poor defense is their main problem, as only Droylsden have conceded more league goals than them.
I expect o tough game, as both side will probably have to bide their time and take their chances when they comes and because of Altrincham’s defense, I give Woking more changes to win in tonight game.


DRAW @ 3.25 Ladbrokes 2/10
* As a additional cover for above two bets

Marvin Morgan – to score any time @ 3.00 Ladbrokes 2/10
* has scored in three games in succession

Time of first goal – after 29 min. (includes 0-0 draw) @ 1.95 BlueSQ 2/10

Altrincham: (Home) (Away)
Average time first goal scored 45 mins 50 mins
Average time first goal conceded 36 mins 33 mins

Woking: (Home) (Away)
Average time first goal scored 50 mins 53mins
Average time first goal conceded 51 mins 36 mins


GL tonight

[Roskos]

Originally Posted by Roskos

....
Woking @ (0) 1.95 BlueSQ 4/10
* Woking has a full squad ....
Time of first goal – after 29 min. (includes 0-0 draw) @ 1.95 BlueSQ 2/10

Some wrong info about the prices and bookies
... Woking @ (0) 1.86 Ladbrokes 4/10
... Time of first goal – after 29 min. (includes 0-0 draw) @ 1.83 BlueSQ 2/10

[Shipsupstreets]

I tend to agree that Woking are a bit of value tonight. I'm led to believe they are going for it with a slightly more adventurous formation, mainly because they are looking to exploit Alty in central defensive areas, where they are very weak. I'll believe it when I see it, mind - they are the most conservative of outfits!

The spreads look potentially interesting - if it is an open start I'll be selling the time of Woking's second goal. Morgan's player goal minutes are a buy, but I'll leave that for now. Depending on how the match shapes up, Alty could be chasing things late on and leaving themselves open, so watch the spreads on Woking's goal minutes - more often than not this season, buyers of the full-time side's team goal minutes late on (after 65 mins at least) have been rewarded with some stonking profits.

[01087924]

Im on Woking as well, good luck.

[Shipsupstreets]

Looks like Morgan, Sole and Norville all start. Could be that Woking are looking for goals.