England: League Two Ante-Post 2009/10 Season

[fintron]

Originally Posted by ewana

I like the look of Bradford City. They were challenging up until the final quarter of last season when they fell away completely and even missed the playoffs.

However, the fans seem to still be right behind Stuart McColl which always helps if the Management team is settled.

Bradford should be eager to make up for last years disapointment.

Thoughts?

As a Bradford fan, I'd be very surprised if we won the league next season but good luck for your bet. A play-off position is perhaps more realistic, although I hope you prove me wrong!

At the start of last season the board stated that they were looking for back to back promotions, and in bringing in Graeme Lee, Paul McLaren, Michael Boulding and Chris Brandon, mostly from higher divisions, they blew a very large proportion of their wage budget on just four players. Had we been promoted this season we would have probably been okay, because of increase gate receipts etc, but having missed out on the play-offs last season, McCall has now been instructed to chop the wage bill. That has meant all four players above have been asked to take a pay cut or find new clubs and Nicky Law and Dean Furman (our two most influential players last season) have been sent back to their parent clubs and we have helplessly seen them sign for Rotherham and Oldham respectively. The only concrete signings we have made so far are right back Simon Ramsden from Rochdale and striker Gareth Evans from Macclesfield, along with Zesh Rehman, who has made his loan move from QPR permanent. Veteran striker Peter Thorne has penned a new deal and Michael Boulding has said he is prepared to take a pay cut to play on next season. However, several other first teamers are dithering over an extention and we are still without an experienced goalkeeper after letting Rhys Evans go. Most Bradford fans accepted him as a consistent stopper able to do a decent job but it seems McCall is counting the pennies and may bring in a loan kid to fill the void.

At the minute we don't have a squad strong enough to challenge for the title, and with the financial constraints, despite the huge following, I think plenty of spots in the team will be filled by loan players. A lot for us will depend on how fast Omar Daley returns from injury and whether we can keep Peter Thorne fit next year. On his day, Daley is probably the best winger in the league, a Jamaica international and week after week was getting praise from opposing players, managers, and fans, but he's been out for ages having done his cruciates and we missed him. Likewise Thorne, he started the season in rampant mood, but he's 36 now and ineviatably he picks up niggly injuries. Last year we had no one else to really compensate when he was out. Maybe Evans will change that now?

The other possible problem we'll face, aside from a threadbare squad, is the pressure from the fans. McCall nearly walked away from the club last season after coming out in public and saying he'd quit if we missed out on the playoffs after the fans spoke of their dismay at out league position. However, a massive outctry from the fans late on convinced him to stay, and I think McCall felt guilty about potentially walking away from a job half-finished. That said, there are still quite a few fans that wanted to see him go, and the minute results go against us this season opinion could be divided once more. The one issue Mccall has failed to address is the lack of experience in the dugout. With him he has Wayne Jacobs, the old assistant at Halfiax Town, but together they have little managerial experience. Often accused of being tactically naive, many of us wanted to see a third man brought in over the summer to help out and show them the way..but it doesn't look as if we'll have one with money being the way it is.

Our failure to make the play-offs this season will at least have served to dampen the expecation levels for this season because, last season, having made some outstanding signings, we expected promotion and nothing less. This season I get the feeling the fans are a bit more pessimistic, and perhaps, in a funny way, that will help if it releives some of the pressure off our players.

I've backed Notts County for promotion as stated above, as I felt I'd be able to get a good value price before the takeover (which still looks as if it is going ahead). Bury and Grimsby are the two sides I noted at the end of last season as possible outright bets, but as of yet I've no money down on those, waiting until more signings are announced across the league.

[torn up slip]

i cant see past rotherham for me in this league.

i know the 7/1 at hills is short but it could be made to look the price of the decade if they manage to avoid the problems of last season.

the signing of any player from 2 divisions above is likely to prove an excellent addition but in nicky law from sheff utd they apparently have someone who can play a bit of football as well.

who was rotherham's top scorer last season btw? i know he finished up being 2nd or 3rd top scorer in the league but did they manage to keep hold of him?

[boyd]

Reuben Reid was Rotherham top scorer. He has handed in a transfer request but at the moment he is still at the club. MK Dons had a failed £100k bid, but i'd expect them or another team to put in a higher bid that may test the boards resolve.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by torn up slip

i cant see past rotherham for me in this league.

i know the 7/1 at hills is short but it could be made to look the price of the decade if they manage to avoid the problems of last season.

the signing of any player from 2 divisions above is likely to prove an excellent addition but in nicky law from sheff utd they apparently have someone who can play a bit of football as well.

who was rotherham's top scorer last season btw? i know he finished up being 2nd or 3rd top scorer in the league but did they manage to keep hold of him?

Nicky Law can sure play football. Infact, I'm struggling to think of many better midfielders that I've personally seen in the last two years in L2. The boy has it all, a great engine, not scared of getting stuck in, got a decent shot on him and his passing is amazing, he pulls of the 30, 40 yard hollywood balls to feet - the ones the rest of the players in this league sent out of touch. The only possible criticism was his set plays - his corners were poor, too lofty and always an easy catch for the GK, but thats nit picking and overall Rotherham have got a superb signing there, for sure.

[fintron]

What does everyone make of the handicap betting in this division? The following handicaps are with Skybet who offer 18/1 about any team....

Accrington +25
Aldershot +19
Barnet +21
Bournemouth +7
Bradford +2
Burton +21
Bury +7
Cheltenham +9
Chesterfield +5
Crewe +9
Dagenham +15
Darlo +15
Grimsby +15
Hereford +15
Lincoln +15
Macclesfield +25
Morecambe +15
Northampton +2
Notts County +5
Port Vale +15
Rochdale +9
Rotherham 0
Shrewsbury +2
Torquay +15

[fintron]

This was my rough and ready guess as to the final league standings, without any handicaps....

Bury - good manager, guaranteed goals from Bishop.
Rotherham - top manager, should go close without pts deduction this yr
Shrewsbury - foundations there already for L1 or higher. An improvement in away form should see them go close.
Notts County - new investment should see them improve upon previous years placings when just an average L2 side.
Chesterfield - Lester the key to them, if they keep hold of him.
Bradford - greater sense of realism this yr, pre-season performances lifting the mood though
Rochdale - always up in the play-offs with their attacking football.
Bournemouth - were capable on their day, will hope for more settled time off field
Northampton - relegated last year, may do a Bradford, Chesterfield, Rotherham etc and take season to settle before mounting promotion push
Crewe -as above
Darlington - off the field financial uncertainty at back of minds. Lost some key men, and boss. Windass great signing, mind.
Lincoln - talked the talk last year and didn't deliver. At least Jacko is well again though.
Grimsby - should improve from last season and Newell knows what he's doing, but do they have enough for play-offs? I doubt it unless they sign well.
Cheltenham - mate of mine who was ST holder there says they're terrible!
Morecambe - Sammy does well with the budget but mid-table perhaps best they can hope for.
Burton - may surprise a few people, think they'll beat drop
Torquay - another that can play the surprise factor back in the league
Port Vale - struggled last year, mid-table best they can hope for
Hereford - relied on loan signings last time down here. will need to loan well again for immediate return to L1.
Aldershot - can no longer play on surprise factor.
Barnet - banking on persuading Paul Furlong to stay. Says a lot.
Macclesfield - poor side, lack the resources, surival the aim as ever
Accrington - another always down the bottom, financial cloud hanging over them
Dagenham - lost all their key men to Brentford.

So for me, Bury with the +7 are the one I like the look of. I think Burton could suprise a few people like the newly promoted sides often do, but I don't think with +21 they'd outperform Bury if they were given +7. I think Bury are a decent enough side, Alan Knill has done a good job and Andy Bishop guarantees goals. He signed a contract extension there last year and providing he stays I think they are worth an EW bet (1/4 odds, 4 places) in this market.

[fintron]

Originally Posted by fintron

Notts County continue to shorten and all the money has been for them this afternoon in wake of the recent news. They're now into a best priced 18/1 (Tote) for the title, generally avail at 16's, and are a best priced with Sky for promotion after Coral slashed their odds from 5/1 to 3/1. Its a bit of a shame there is no promotion market on Betfair as this would have been an easy arb.

The latest talk is now that Sven Goran Eriksson may be joining as a director of football type man. Quite unbelievable

County's odds for the title are now a best priced 11/1 (Expect) but are generally 8/1 and 9/1.

Their odds for promotion have now generally been cut 5/2 this morning, with Stan James a standout 11/4.

[boyd]

Fintron,

your prediction of the positions of how teams will finish is extremely similar to what i would have it as. I think the only real changes would be to have Northampton in your top three and then you'd have my top four teams. In what order we'll have to see, but hopefully it will be Bury.

I think the only other changes would be to have Cheltenham lower and Morecambe slightly higher. It would not surprise me if Cheltenham were in a real relegation fight this season after last season's relegation. I'm sure they have a limited squad and have to play a load of kids. Sammy McIlroy knows his way around this league, even on limited resources and i think they could match last season's performance, but the playoffs may just be out of reach.


For your handicap league, i agree Bury may go well. Bury have also drifted to 16/1 with Skybet for the league title, which i probably will back, after already backing at 14's. Bury had the option to sign Nicky Adams on loan from Leicester for the season just one year after selling him for £100k, but Alan Knill has decided to turn the deal down. Alan Knill knows a winger is the main area that Bury need to improve after Elliot Bennett went back to Wolves, and currently have Simon Johnson (ex-Leeds) on trial. Bury have looked good in pre season with a couple of victories, most notably a 2-1 against Everton which included quite a few first team regulars.

[sir_tubbs]

This might sound odd as i am a shrewsbury town fan so i guess you could see it as a advice to avoid backing us winning or promotion or giving you a reason to back us to go down with the odds being as big as 33's @ VC for us to be relegated.

There are a few reasons for this first the loss of key players like davis and holt to contributed around 44 of our goals last season. We have lost over 10 players in total from last season and not really replaced them.
We played leicester in a pre-season game today and only had enough payers to have 5 on the bench this included to 2 youth players and a trailist who have chosen not to take on. Ok we had a couple of injuries but our defense isnt that good after losing 3 full backs in the summer and without holt and davis we might struggle to get goals.

Obviously we will be bringing in a few new faces with a few names being heard like paul benson and sergio torres but only rumors.

[WHUPUNTER]

Originally Posted by boyd

Reuben Reid was Rotherham top scorer. He has handed in a transfer request but at the moment he is still at the club. MK Dons had a failed £100k bid, but i'd expect them or another team to put in a higher bid that may test the boards resolve.

Im sure I saw the other day that Reuben Reid is a Blackpool player and was on loan at Rotherham last season. Am I right in thinking that?

[Pie Eater]

He joined Rotherham at the start of last season, he haad been released by Brentford at the end of 07/08. He was doing the rounds of League 2 and Conference teams last pre season so I don't think he was ever at the seaside at Bloomfield Road

[boyd]

Originally Posted by WHUPUNTER

Im sure I saw the other day that Reuben Reid is a Blackpool player and was on loan at Rotherham last season. Am I right in thinking that?

Currently he is still a Rotherham player. Reuben Reid got pulled out of a friendly for Rotherham last week (Friday i think). Blackpool have had a bid around £200k accepted, but Reid is stalling as he wants to see what other clubs come in for him. In todays papers rumours were West Brom are after him too. Reuben Reid has now handed a transfer request in since the bid was accepted. So don't back him for top scorer as he will more than likely leave Rotherham.


On another note, Shrewsbury have had a six figure bid accepted for Dagenham striker Benson, but he doesn't want to leave the London area for Shropshire. Shrewsbury must have quite a bit to spend so don't think they'll get relegated, i'm sure they'll be nearer the top than bottom of the league.

[fintron]

if anyone has a bit of time to kill I have written an ante-post preview for League Two at this link....

http://www.bctid.blogspot.com/

I've changed my mine on a couple of teams having looked at things a bit more closely, but still think Bury are the value bet at 16/1 with Sky.

[WHUPUNTER]

Cheers lads, wasn't sure so cheers for heads up. I knew he had been linked with them one way or another.

Fintron - That is a top write up mate, spent a decent time reading it, nice one. I fancy Bury aswell, I'd price them at 10-12/1 so 16s is proper value and i'll be having them to win League 2, though Notts County have to be respected for obvious reasons.

[boyd]

Fantastic write up for the League Two preview. I think it was your preview last year for League Two that was excellent too.

Regarding your suggested bets, as you know i am also on Bury but just before reading your article i'd backed Bury on the handicap with Coral too. I think i might have a look at perming a few different lines for the bet groups for League Two teams to have four different bets with your selections plus Northampton and Barnet to win their groups.

I have requested a price for Luke Rodgers for League two top scorer with a couple of bookies. He currently isn't available even though he has signed for Notts County. As of a few days ago he's scored 7 in 5 friendlies according to reports. Central defenders could be more worried about having to mark Lee Hughes, which may leave space for Rodgers in and around the box. I don't rate him that highly as a player, but he is a good finisher.

[mowgli77]

Brett Pitman to be league 2 top scorer 25-1
This lad finished the season with 18 goals in a relatively poor Bournemouth side and really caught my eye when they beat us at their place. He can certainly finish, has pace, composure and a great eye for goal. He scored 2 against us if I remember rightly and should have probably had a hat trick. A lot will depend on how Bournemouth fare this season but this fella can be relied upon to get the goals, it might be their defence that can't be relied upon for stopping them at the other end.

M Boulding to be league 2 top scorer 33-1
I tipped him up half way through the season last year and he looked like he might finish with a flourish but Bradfords downturn in form coincided with the adoption of a hoof it and hope tactic that did not suit Bouldings game. He has been scoring plenty pre season but actually looks fitter, hungrier and sharper. City have 4 strikers now and a lot will depend on if Boulding is first choice and if we play to his strengths. He is a big price and 1/4 odds pay for 4 places.

[fintron]

Cheers lads. I was desperate to oppose Notts County when placing my final bets. I know they have a lot of financial clout now but I feel they are poor value now. They weren't anything special at all last year and will have had to improved quite a bit to win this division.

I did post them up at 5/1 for promotion when talk of the initial investment first came out and I am obviously happy about that now as that prices has contracted into a best priced 13/8. I'm not gonna bother laying it off though as I only had a little bit on as the takeover hadn't actually been confirmed at the time the bet was struck. I think they probably well get promotion as the division doesn't look particularly strong and many of the teams have financial problems hanging over their heads.

Torquay may be a team I've underestimated though. I thought they'd be one of the rank outsiders, but the bookies have them 28/1, what have I missed? Are they pricing them up on the basis they may do an Exeter from last season or are they genuinely a good side?

Boyd, with regards to the group betting, I think Rotherham are good value in Group A at 3/1 (Coral) vs Shrews and Bradford. Bradford won't finish above Rotherham with their depleted squad this season and Nicky Law has told who the stronger side is when making his mind up over a possible move between those two clubs. Shrewsbury should be up there IMO but they werent anything special against us last year and now Holt has gone and they've been knocked back with Benson, questions have to be asked where the goals are gonna come from.

I think Bury 13/8 (Sky) should do better than Bourn and Crewe in Group 3. Bourn have too many financial worries, and Crewe may need a bit of time to familiarise themselves like so many other relegated sides do. Even if they make the play offs, I think Bury will outperform them.

I done the acca I put in that article but also done a treble on those two above with Rochdale to a triple stake. Cheltenham have too many money worries to trouble Rochdale and Dagenham have lost too many key men, so I thought that treble stood a good chance.

[boyd]

Fintron, i agree that your treble has an excellent chance and them teams should win, and i'll look at doing the same. For the accummulator, my suggestion is them trebles with: 1. Notts County, Morecambe (like your bet)
2. Notts County, Barnet
3. Northampton, Morecambe
4. Northampton, Barnet.

Reason for this is i can't see Aldershot or Chesterfield winning their group bets.

Coral have added Luke Rodgers and have him at 25/1 for top scorer.

[kevshat]

As well as Rotherham who are now nothing like the 12/1 I got when the odds first came out, another side I want on my list this season are Crewe. I really rate their manager who has taken Stoke to levels higher than this and at one point last season Crewe caught fire but tailed off at the end. In David Button he's got England's u20 goalie and Calvin Zola should score goals. Dario Gradi will no doubt have a superstar or two up his sleeve for Thordarson and Ladbrokes 22/1 is more than acceptable value.

In the 1st goalscorer market, Notts County created a lot of chances last season and although Weston's gone to Brentford, Ben Davies was one of the best players in this league last season and as well as scoring a few he'll create plenty. Karl Hawley was a serial goalscorer for Carlisle at this level before he moved to Preston which didn't work out. He definitely knows where the onion bag is and Bet365's 16/1 is more than acceptable in a side which will probably automatically be in the mix this season.

[bowles10]

League Two

All the talk is of the return of Sven & no one would have predicted him going to NottsCounty of all places!

NottsCounty – 11/2

The only club that has money being pumped in. No reason why they cant do it, shrewd signings of Rodgers & Hawley will make a formidable partnership.
Verdict: If good enough, could go to the top.

Rotherham – 8/1

Lost their main goalscorer Reid to West Brom which is a big negative. Have had money issues in the last few years but would have been near the top last season had they not had the points deduction.
Verdict: If they keep their funds going, should be thereabouts

Bradford - 14/1

Have 3 strikers in Thorne, Conlon & Boulding who have all scored through their careers. I can see them being the leading goalscorers in this division but defence worries me a bit.
Verdict: Just make the play offs

Bournemouth - 16/1

The points deduction was an issue last year but they played some decent football to get out of it & have a nice little stadium now on the dorset coast which seems to becoming a bit of a fortress now.


Recommended bets

NottsCounty 11/2 Hills – 2pts win

Rotherham 8/1 Hills – 2pts win

Bournemouth 16/1 Hills – 2pts win