England: League One Sept 30

[davidmphill]

Gillingham v Cheltenham

Cheltenham seem to be struggling to adapt to life at the higher level having embarked on a run of 4 losses in a row. They've yet to win on the road this season. The Gills have done well at home winning their last 2 games including a fine win over Swansea. Cheltenham are missing some big players for them in the form of Shane Duff and Damien Spencer.

Gillingham 8/10 @ 1.99 betfair

[davidmphill]

Huddersfield v Bournemouth

After struggling for a bit Huddersfield have bounced back well with 4 pts from 6. These results include a fine win at Swansea and a hard fought point gained at Tranmere. Bournemouth traditionally are a solid home side who find it hard to win away. This is a long trip for them from the south coast. The home side have a fine selection of strikers to choose from with Beckett, Booth and the in form Taylor-Fletcher to choose from.

Huddersfield 6/10 @ 1.95 betdaq

[davidmphill]

Rotherham v Millwall

Great price for me here on the home win. Millwall have had a shocking start to the season and as a result Spackman has left. Rotherham have done well considering their off field problems and have overcome a 10 pt defecit. Millwall have lost all 5 away from London so far.

Rotherham 6/10 @ 2.09 betdaq

[THEO-007]

BLACKPOOL - LEYTON ORIENT

Great experience for blackpool here and the team fight all matches. No absenties today.
ORIENT has good attack but only at home matches. Her defense at last 3 matches eat 3 goals everyone.
This is the reasons and i believe HOMEWIN HERE with 1.95 in BETFAIR.

[mowgli77]

Sport	Football (Eng - League 1)
Event	Notts Forest V Swansea
Selection	Swansea
Strength	3/10
Date	30/09/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 3.75 (Back)
Reasoning	I think this will be a very close game and Forest have rode their luck at times this year. Swansea look the value bet at the odds available and with Trundle, Fallon and Knight in the side they are more than capable of scoring goals and holding their own.

Sport	Football (Eng - League 1)
Event	Bristol City V Oldham
Selection	Oldham
Strength	3/10
Date	30/09/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 4.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Oldhams away form has picked up with a 2-2 draw at Blackpool and a 2-0 victory over league leaders Forest. Oldham are just outside a play off spot and although Bristol City have great home form Oldahm at the odds is a value bet.

[garyfinny]

I'm awaiting team news before deciding to lump on Blackpool.

Last weeks 3-3 draw was really a result of playing a crap 4-3-3 formation, in which none of the strikers had any pace. 2-0 down, and changed to 4-4-2, got out of jail with some late goals.

There is no settled team and Ling seems to have loyalty to certain players. Add to the fact that we signed no-one on loan, seems crazy when it's clear we are deficient in a few areas.

On the other side, Blackpool are clearly as bad as us. They might have played well at Carlisle, but frankly, you can reframe that to a team unable to take their chances. Certainly I've seen enough of that!

A line up like this would keep me from betting: Garner, Lockwood, Tann, Saah, Miller, Keith, Chambers, McMahon, Corden, Alexander, Ibehre . I really hope it's this line up otherwise, we can look forward to another 3 goals conceded.

The only other game I am looking at here is Yeovil at Brentford - Yeovil signed Kevin Cooper on loan this week and he is a quality player at this level. Brentfords record of 3-6-2 looks pretty decent, but on closer inspection they have won just once in the last 11 games, which is terrible.
The handicaps look attractive for this one.

[SecondSight]

Hi everyone, its got a bit hot on the Forest game.

If they have any sort of hopes of automatic promotion they must win games like todays after slipping up alot recently was my thinking. It will be a big pointer for their season. If they can't today I don't think they will gain an automatic promotion place. I heard they were unlucky at Port Vale and at home to Carlisle, but you can't be unlucky for ever. So thye will win or they are not the team most people think they are.

DJ

47% is a statistic for all English League games going back 100 years I think, ok some seasons it will vary, but its the very long term average. My source is Successful Football Betting by Geoff Harvey.

[Djordje]

Thanks SS for 47% explanations

I've heard that before, but never understood that - now it makes sense.

[Djordje]

well done all of you on Forest

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by kevshat

3pts Blackpool -0.5AH vs Leyton Orient 1.94 Ladbrokes

Blackpool lost 2-0 to Carlisle in midweek but by all accounts played better than that. Orient hired Houdini to rescue them from a 3-0 deficit to Gillingham with 15 mins to go to draw 3-3. Orient are struggling and if Blackpool can play the football they have been they'll win this one.

3pts Rotherham -0.5AH vs Millwall 1.98 Bet1128

Rotherham have started the season really well and but for their 10pt deduction they would be up towards the top half of the table. Millwall have been awful so far this season and if the form remains the same this will be a cosy home win.

4pts Forest to beat Swansea 1.80 Bet365

Bit of a heavyweight contest at the City Ground this one but Forest are going along nicely this season whereas Swansea, who I'm not convinced have fully got over their playoff defeat last season are inconsistant. Forest have drawn a few lately so will want to return to winning ways here which if Kris Commons plays well they certainly will.

Bloody Rotherham

Djordje, I understood you perfectly. You said that what happened this time last year had as much influence as what happened 5 games ago which is rubbish. What was happening 5 games ago is always going to give you a better indication than what was happening 12 months ago. As it was I was fully aware Oldham were superb when beating Forest 5 weeks ago so that wasn't a problem. Obviously we work out potential winners completely differently.

Despite Rotherham's late collapse 2/3 for me today and a 3.08pt profit

[Djordje]

Originally Posted by kevshat

Bloody Rotherham

Djordje, I understood you perfectly. You said that what happened this time last year had as much influence as what happened 5 games ago which is rubbish. What was happening 5 games ago is always going to give you a better indication than what was happening 12 months ago.

Never said that. All I said was that there are too many factors which should be considered for a bet, at least I considered some of them for this bet.

Mentioning '5 games ago' was irony, as Forest hardly were on good run in last 4 games.



Once again, well done on Forest pick, personally I had perfect betting day, and it was a coincedence I mentioned only few of them in UK threads, as I was too busy to mention some other bets which came in for me today (I'm not aftereventing, all my bets were posted in my system thread).