England - Conference (Oct 9-10)

[Rockman]

RUSDEN-HALIFAX
Rusden is not in a good form and without a win in their 6 matches.Halifax is not in that bad kind of form and they need to improve their away form to stay in this league.I will be betting on halfiax in this game as i trust them to get at least a point.
halifax +0.50 6/10@1.75 bet365
Draw 4/10 @3.40 bet365

CRAWLEY-WEYMOUTH
Crawley had a good result in their last game.weymouth had a draw after 2 successive wins.crawley with their full squad is not such a bad team but weymouth is not that easy to get beaten.weymouth form away from home is the only reason their are still in 3rd place.I think they will improve on that today.
weymouth draw 4/10 @3.20 bet365
weymouth hcp0 6/10 @1.90 bet365

This will be my 2 bets for tonite

[Setup]

This players are regulars? If they do, 2X is great, right?

[Djordje]

This might be tricky day, as this is 4th round since Sep 30th - only 10 days.

Rushden v Halifax
0.54 0.24 0.22

I guess there's small value on Rushden here. Although winless in last 6, they have great opportunity to record a win finally, against one of the poorest travellers in league - Halifax were just awful on the road so far. No fresh injuries on both sides, few players carrying knocks at Halifax.

Southport v Stevenage
0.38 0.35 0.27

I thought Southport would win last weekend following their heroic 2-2 against Oxford in previous match, but they failed. Even huge moral boost after holding leaders to draw wasnt enough for them to beat St Albans at home, and I think it was dissapointing result for them (1-1).

Stevenage on the other hand are on nice run lately, unbeaten in 5 games. Still dont see guests as favorites in this match, having in mind fact they are winless on the road.

I think Southport might nick this one anyway, even with their selection worries against full strength Stevenage side. Already some value @2.80, and with tendency to go even higher as match closing to kick-off.

Kidderminster v Oxford
0.19 0.23 0.58

Dont know what to say about this one. Oxford doing great really, both at home and away, still without defeat in 14 rounds, and they look like coming from different world to the Conference. 1.83 is really good price in my opinion.

Dagenham v St Albans
0.68 0.24 0.08

After 5-0 thrashing of Nortwich in last round, and having in mind their overall great results at home, bet on Dagenham looks like obvious choice. Although poor prices, small value in 1.5 and I'll go for it with small stakes.

Crawley Town v Weymouth
0.42 0.22 0.36

Crawley thrashed Morecambe 4-0 last weekend and they should be in a good mood for the visit of high flying Weymouth. Weymouth are impressive at home this season, still unbeaten, but their away form is probably on level of their quality, and I think they might struggle in this one. Bookies think Crawley are one who will struggle, and that gives us a great price for a home win - 2.5 is nice, 2.75 at betfred is ridiculously high in my opinion.

York v Cambridge
0.53 0.31 0.16

York are priced around 1.6 at most bookies (1.53 at ladbrokes is really funny). Cant say they are not favorites tomorrow, but Cambridge were in some kind of uptrend lately, and although they lost at Gravesend last weekend, I dont think they are without chances. Still no bet for me, but draw @3.75 looks too big.
6 home wins since '02 between these two, and I'm afraid that trend will have to change soon.

Tamworth v Grays Athletic
0.34 0.27 0.39

Altrincham v Morecambe
0.42 0.28 0.30

Exeter v Northwich
0.53 0.25 0.22

Forest Green v Burton
0.18 0.33 0.49

Gravesend v Stafford R
0.53 0.36 0.11

Singles :
Rushden
Southport
Oxford
Dagenham

Maybes :
Crawley
York v Cambridge draw
Forest Green v Burton draw
Altrincham

Doubles and treble :
Dagenham/Rushden/Oxford

[ads25]

The general consensus of this thread suggests Daggenham, Burton, Gravesand, Oxford, Greys & Rushden look the more liklier teams to win tonight.

In my opinion Burton, Oxford and Dags look the most likely to win for reasons explained so far in this thread

[rustyg]

My selections for tonight:
Gravesend to beat Stafford Rangers 10pts @ 1.71
Dagenham R to beat St Albans 10pts @ 1.46
Burton (A) to beat Forest Green 10pts @ 2.3

All prices betfair

based on system:
Computer selected football home and aways

[Djordje]

Although prices going down on Stevenage, I still think Southport are great bet tonight. Actually even better, when you take into account they are available @3+ right now.

Forest Green have solid record aganist top table teams this season, and they had favorites-killer image in seasons behind. Draw for me, as honestly I dont think they can win this one, and I would like better price for complete surprise. H2H stats on FGR's side too.

[TheKing]

Sport	Football (Eng - Non League)
Event	Dagenham & Red v St Albans City
Selection	Dagenham & Red
Strength	10/10
Date	10/10/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Gamebookers @ 1.45 (Back)
Reasoning	2nd placed Dagenham & Red meeting 21th St Albans City. Even without much analysis this games looks pretty straightforward, still ..... Of 7 home games Dagenham & Red have 6 wins and 1 loss (to leaders Oxford), and an attack and defense to be envied, scoring 19 and conceding only 4. They hammered Northwich last round (5-0) and are looking good, Lee Goodwin is the only missing player. Dagenham & Red are on a a 6 game home winning streak!!! and in the last 10 games scored 25 goals and only conceded 9 so they are in great form. St Albans City are battling relagation an their away record is bad to 2wins 1 draw 4 losses. They are not that bad they re capable of scoring goals but also they concede a lot, they have 17scored 22 conceded so far. Also they have 5 players missing today: Matt Hann, Ram Marwa, Gary Elphick, Ben Martin and Scott Cousins, and they are without a win in since 7 games. Dag & Red should win this game easy.

[heniek31]

Looking at all info on Dagenhams game, seems that the best option (and better price than home win) is over. In the last 5 home games, they scored at least 2 goals, where St Albans scored 1 goal in 8 (out of 9) away games. Math is so simple .

Dagenham over 2.5 @1.75 10/10 BF

[Psychic]

I'm on Burton as well. FGR look a right shambles at the moment and so far they've only managed to beat an out-of-form Stafford Rangers. Confidence should be low too following last weekend's hammering by Oxford. Granted, Forest Green are Burton Albion's bogey side but surely that will come to an end tonight?

Best bet of the day is Dag & Red though.

[TheKing]

Sport	Football (Eng - Non League)
Event	Gravesend v Stafford Rangers
Selection	Gravesend
Strength	8/10
Date	10/10/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.71 (Back)
Reasoning	8th place meeting 17th, Gravesend have a home record of 4-2-1 (W-D-L) for their 7 home games this season while Stafford R. have an away record of 1-3-3 (W-D-L) for their 7 away games. Gravesend are on a nice little run, they are undefeated in their last 5 home games while Stafford R. have not won in their last 10 games. Stafford are pretty pathetic only scoring 4 and conceding 20 goals in the last 10 games. There are no big missings in either side, defender Ross Graham-Smith is back for Gravesend while Mark DeBolla is doubtful along with Jon Keeling. Dean Williams and Nathan Smith are out for Stafford. Gravesend needs good results so they can go for play-off and Stafford is a team just good for them to beat.

[davidmphill]

Originally Posted by Sporting1906/2006

davidmphill do you usually pick those teams and place several bets or just bet on them together?

Singles and choose 2 for my double.
I choose my double from throughout the UK betting market.

[jonno32]

djordie dont you think that stevenage have underacheived so far this season?i rate them as one of the better teams in the division.southport have been dreadful this season,aside from the oxford game,where i think teams will raise their performance anyway.i think stevenage is a strong bet tonight,and will think of doing a double,maybe with burton.i have already placed a double on stevenage -1,and gravesend.

[Djordje]

Originally Posted by jonno32

djordie dont you think that stevenage have underacheived so far this season?i rate them as one of the better teams in the division.southport have been dreadful this season,aside from the oxford game,where i think teams will raise their performance anyway.i think stevenage is a strong bet tonight,and will think of doing a double,maybe with burton.i have already placed a double on stevenage -1,and gravesend.

hi jonno - agree about this

but I'm not talking about who's better, I'm trying to find best bet, and that's not the same thing usually

[staffy]

I cant believe anyone would back against SRFC.

I am hoping for a draw but I fear the worst.

[Vilamoura04]

Weve got a good record against kiddy but this game will be tough, and i think the bookies agree because prices are longer than they have been recently. Weve suddenly become vulnerable on set pieces and kiddy have brought some decent players in and got a very good result against grays. Im going to back rob duffy ATS for the third game in a row at 2.25, hes scoring for fun at the minute, 5 in the last two playing with a stomach complaint and a goal a game before that since coming back from injury. A run like this cant go on but ill keep backing him until it stops.

[TheKing]

Sport	Football (Eng - Non League)
Event	Forest Green v Burton Albion
Selection	Burton Albion
Strength	7/10
Date	10/10/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Gamebookers @ 2.20 (Back)
Reasoning	Great value on Burton today. Burton are on a great run, they are undefeated in 9 games, and they stand on 6th. Forest Green stand on last spot being in terrible form. Burton's away form is pretty good winning 4 drawing 2 and loosing only 1. Forest Green on the other hand have a bad record at home winning only 1 drawing 2 and loosing 4. Strangely Forest have a good record against Burton, but Burton's extraordinary form cannot be put aside here, while Forest have just 1 win in last 10 games. Also Forest are missing striker Allan Russell through suspension. Jamie Pitman and Adriano Rigoglioso are both doubts while on-loan striker Charlie Griffin is out. At Burton Andy Ducros and Steve Scoffham are doubtful. I give Burton around 45% to win this game wich gives us a value bet.

[Djordje]

Originally Posted by TheKing

if you give Burton 0.45 chances to win this one and you have price of 2.20 than you surely dont have value bet.

[Sgt.Sunshine]

Good spot Djordje.

[steve1966]

Daggers for me. Scoring plenty of goals and should see off St Albans.

Might have a wee flutter on Burton. Forest Green seem to be all sorts of trouble.

[TheKing]

Originally Posted by Djordje

if you give Burton 0.45 chances to win this one and you have price of 2.20 than you surely dont have value bet.

Ok thats funny, you are right as 0.45*2.20=0.99 so it's not 1, but it's good enough for me.