England - Conference (Oct 9-10)

[Sgt.Sunshine]

OK, this is getting silly . Sorry!

Djordje original point was that you made an estimate of win probability (45%) and placed a bet at odds of 2.2 and called it a value bet. My point is that on one hand you seem to understand what "value" is in that you make your own estimate for the win, but you chose odds which according to your estimate do not give any value. OK, so 0.99 is nearly 1.0, but 1.0 would mean in the long term you would win nothing! Surely you should be aiming a little higher than that?

[TheKing]

Yeah, but i don't loose anything either and that is already a respectable performance.

Seriously, i understand now what you mean and you are right, but it was closer to value than anything else i could find.the term i think is " Almost value"

[Vilamoura04]

Thats me done with conference betting i think. The main effect of the lower quality of players in this division seems to be a significantly reduced consistency. Teams, and key players particularly, can be brilliant one week and piss poor the next. Even as an oxford fan, who are clearly one of the most consistent teams and having seen most of their games this year, it seems to be completely random when they will drop points.

[Djordje]

Originally Posted by TheKing

Yeah, but i don't loose anything either and that is already a respectable performance.

Seriously, i understand now what you mean and you are right, but it was closer to value than anything else i could find.the term i think is " Almost value"

I understand that not all the punters take care about value, percentage and other irational parameters (like I do ) but if you're calculating chances of your bet in anyway, bet with 0.99 or 1.00 is not wise choice.

You shouldnt place a bet unless it gives you at least 1.03-1.05 value - that's my personal opinion only.