England: Championship Apr 20-23

[KechnieJ]

Re Derby v Luton......looking at my primitive historical stats Luton look good value to me at anything over $1.35. As I live in NZ and it's now gone midnight here it's time for bed, so am unable to reply further to this thread..Any punters living in the UK interested in stats, probabilities etc can email me for casual chatting. zedned01@xtra.co.nz

[blackcrow]

Derby -1 (EH)
3rd placed Derby are trying to win promotion to the Premier League while Luton are looking for a miracle to escape relegation. Luton's cause is not helped by their recent form of 1 draw and 9 losses of their last 10 games, as well as the possible absence of 3 key players in Davis, Spring and Robinson. Derby have a good home record and should be primed for a comfortable victory over a side which seems down and out

[Djordje]

Originally Posted by B-busta

Dont be offended boys, just want to see what Djordje has to say before imake the call.. Djordje where are you???

Nothing yet from me, will take a closer look later tonight.

Definately not on Derby though.

[888]

From a statistic point of view, most games Derby won usually by 1 goals margin. While Luton it is rare for them to lose by more than 1 goals. So Luton looks good here on AH ofc

However, lately stats seem to favour Derby to win by more than 1 goal. If you guys look carefully their home form lately u should notice this :

After a draw they usually won the next match by more than 1 goals, i.e Colchester and then Cardiff. Will this repeat ? since they drew their last home match.

Hopefully can be some food for thought for everyone here.

[impressivegol]

Derby -1 for me.

Luton already know the fate of relegation is inevitable and have no confidence of closing with three victories. Big contrast from Derby who have the top two spots right in their sight and no better opportunity to grab three points than today

[scoorpio26]

Yeah,at the end will Luton win or draw!

[Dominic]

Sport	Football (Eng - Champ)
Event	Sheff Wed v Coventry
Selection	Sheff Wed
Strength	10/10
Date	21/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Mansion @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	Sheff comes with 5 wins and a draw in last 6 games , incredible form with 65 points and the 10th position with real chance for play offs. The motivation of team is amplificated by the winger Jermaine Johnson and midfielder Burton O'Brien who comes back after injuries . Steve Watson is same back after a game who was out of the team. Coventry have a low form on the road with no victory in last games , just a draw against Derby. Before this game , Coventry seems with no relegation problems , with 53 points and the 17th position. In this game the manager must do some technical movements because veteran midfielder Don Hutchison is incert, Adam Virgo and Khalilou Fadiga are out for the season , Leon McKenzie is a doubt, Colin Cameron and Colin Hawkins are out and Michael Doyle is suspended.

[Dominic]

Sport	Football (Eng - Champ)
Event	QPR v Cardiff
Selection	QPR
Strength	10/10
Date	21/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Mansion @ 2.25 (Back)
Reasoning	This game is crucial for the home win , because decide the fade in championship for next year. In last 6 games they won 4 and lose 1 on the road and one at home against WBA. The most important players for QPR Lee Cook and Michael Mancienne are back after injury. The defender Danny Cullip is incert for this game , but the doctors trying hard to make him available for this game. Coventry comes without defender Glenn Loovens and midfielders Riccardo Scimeca and Simon Walton. The for is very weak , with 2 draw in last 6 games and 4 lose. Head to head games are favorite for QPR team who lead with 3 wins , no draw between them and a win by Coventry side.

[fenlandtiger]

The odds on Derby are very skinny tonight!

Birmingham v Luton was 1.42 and that ended in a 2-2 draw. Just one example of the many unexpected results thrown up in this division.

[deeloughran]

Have gone for Derby...but this friday night football has thrown up lots of surprises all season!! Recall Southampton doing me out of a good quad with the Uefa cup matches a few weeks back getting beat 3-1 by Colchester i think at home when @ 1-2?

[Giraffe707]

derby for me, cant see past them

[fenlandtiger]

Derby 1 Luton 0 FT

Luton relegated. Hard luck KevsHat and other Luton fans.

Derby were lucky to come away with 3 points here. Hanging on for grim life and being outplayed by Luton.

[deeloughran]

Originally Posted by fenlandtiger

Derby were lucky to come away with 3 points here. Hanging on for grim life and being outplayed by Luton.

What match were u watching???

atch Stats
	Derby	Luton
Shots (on Goal)	24(13)	11(7)

Plus Derby hit the bar twice and Howard missed some good chances, only chance i can recall for Luton was the absolute sitter that the man missed and hit his other foot...but apart from that...Derby dominated???

[Djordje]

I dont think Southend are gonna survive this season in Championship, but I think they have some chances to avoid defeat today against Plymouth. They were beaten by Barnsley at home last weekend, which was a huge blow for them after moral boosting win against Preston.

I'm not sure they will be able to beat Plymouth, who won their last two games after 3 straight defeats, but hosts are slightly overestimated here.

Draw looks like the most likely outcome of this match to me.

[Djordje]

Small bet on QPR to beat Cardiff is another one for me.

Cardiff are in free fall and far from their form from first half of the season, and in addition to that they are set to be without r very important players for today.

R's on good run lately, with narrow defeat to Sunderland only in last few games, so I think they should be able to win this one.

Not the greatest price (2.28 at betfair), but good enough for small bet.

[Djordje]

Sheff Wed on really great run of late, definately favorites against injury-troubled Coventry.

Too poor prices to get involved in this match anyway, but will be interesting to see if Owls are capable of keeping high level of performance for that long.

[Djordje]

Second struggling side I fancy for today are Hull. Actually dont fancy them, but find odds for a home win interesting for a LAY.

Hull are mediocre side really, the strongest candidate for 2 remaining tickets to League One, but on the other hand I dont rate Stoke so high and I think they are overestimated for this match.

Interesting recent h2h between these two sides - last 3 games ended in away win.

[Djordje]

Colchester are the first favorite for instant return to League One and ....

Ops, what happend in the meantime?!

I might be boring, but Colchester are underestimated once again. Their 2nd to best home record in league deserves some more respect and even if they play high flying Sunderland, they have much better chances than these odds suggest.

No problem for the home side, and little extra which speaks to U's favor here might be emotional effect of their former captain Bobby Cram death.

3.50 for straight home win at sky bet, 2.00 for Colchester(+1/4) at few places - all great offers.

[B-busta]

Thanks for the great tips, on a draw at Southend aswell ..
QPR
Sheffield
Plymouth Draw
Barnsley
5 Pts each.
Soton, Bromich, Colchester v Sunderland over 2.5 and Preston 2 Pts.

Edit: was on Luton(1.5) last night ..

[Darren]

Originally Posted by B-busta

Would like to hear what you have to say about the Sheffield Wed v Coventry match? Sheffield, best form at the moment but want your opinion berfore a decision..

p.s. does BST stand for British soccer time

Originally Posted by Youssef

Where'd ya get that?

Erm, I "think" it stands for Brittish Standard Time (as opposed to GMT: Greewich Mean Time)

BST - Brittish Summer Time. Its GMT time +1 hour