England: Championship Ante-Post 2009/10 Season

[aliando]

links to latest odds provided below

this thread is to include all season long bets

reasoning for your bets in this thread will be expected - otherwise they can be posted here: 2009/10 season bets



Winner

Promotion


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[aliando]

from The strongest Championship Division ever next season?

doncaster are available at 66/1 with vc bet if anyone is thinking of e/w or 81 for a straight win @ betfair.

are they tasty enough odds....?

[mr shrewdie]

I would say keep your money, aliando, they are now 150/1 on betfair, but our squad is not big enough and I cant see us spending big or getting any good class free transfers in.
I've been going for 35 years now and last season was the best football I've seen, even though we took 2 points from 36 at one stage we were still playing good stuff.
They are 20/1 to be promoted, but I'm waiting to see what the odds are for top 6, which I think we are capable of, and could be a good outside punt.

[aliando]

Originally Posted by mr shrewdie

I would say keep your money, aliando, they are now 150/1 on betfair, but our squad is not big enough and I cant see us spending big or getting any good class free transfers in.
I've been going for 35 years now and last season was the best football I've seen, even though we took 2 points from 36 at one stage we were still playing good stuff.
They are 20/1 to be promoted, but I'm waiting to see what the odds are for top 6, which I think we are capable of, and could be a good outside punt.

tbh, doncaster arent one of the sides i'm looking at, personally, at present - doesnt seem enough squad depth for me. any injuries/sales and where will they be?

[bowles10]

as i said on a previous thread, i think we have the nucleus of a reasonable team with Cerny, Stewart, Connolly & Gorkks in the back line, need a decent Left back thats all, in the middle, if rowlands & Buzaky return from injury fit & well, they will play an important part in the next season, need a decent ball winner though in there, up front need a decent striker but Vine, Cook & Routledge can all support a front man. Helguson & Agyemang are back up thats all.

I would want 25's about us to be serious but whilst the owners have a bit of money, the bookies wont take a chance

We havent even got a manager yet. Talk of Boothroyd or Magilton is going in the wrong direction for me. I would prefer Kenny Jackett over those 2.

[philss_99]

Originally Posted by aliando

tbh, doncaster arent one of the sides i'm looking at, personally, at present - doesnt seem enough squad depth for me. any injuries/sales and where will they be?

Doesnt matter mate.
Burnley have just got promoted from the Championship with using only 23 playes all season. But the remarkable thing is only 17 players were season regulars. The other 6 were in and outs, only playing a handful of games between them.

So morale is, Dont let a small squad put you off. If you fancy a team then back them. You never know what will happen.

But dont get me wrong, the 2009/2010 season is going to be extremely difficult for any team with such a strong table.

My call is West Brom to be Champions, Sheff Utd 2nd.

[Jase82]

I mentioned this in another thread, but I'd lay Newcastle all year long at those odds.

They're likely to have to purchase a whole new team with several high earners leaving. They have no players with recent Championship experience - yet - the pressure on them to be top come October will be intense. The likes of Martins, Butt, Owen, Viduka, Duff, Barton, Collocini will all have to go.

Looking on the bright side, at least things will start to look up for Ameobi, who will finally be given a starting role.

Can anyone imagine what'll happen if Newcastle aren't top by Christmas?

I think it would be a catastrophic decision for Shearer to stay on because he risks damaging his reputation.

Middlesbrough are similar. Southgate doesn't have experience in this league and doesn't have the players to compete.

We will wait and see who both sides sign over the summer, but it takes time for a side to gel. Just look at Derby. Paul Jewell is a good manager, but he changed the team around and failed to bring them promotion.

West Brom for the title definitely, and I too also fancy Sheff Utd to be there at the death.

Not surprised Ipswich are 9/1. Keane knows how to get out of this league and he doesn't tolerate underperformers. He will bring in good players that can do a job in the Championship, and he should have a bit of money to spend. Ipswich finished the season strongly, which is a sign of things to come. They have in recent seasons had a fantastic home record. I'm backing Keane to bring that home form back again.

[WHUPUNTER]

Newcastle are the most obvious lay i've ever seen, teams willl be playing at the top of their games at St James's and will want a big scalp.

I agree with Ali in that Donny are a decent outside bet, play lovely Football up there. Only doubt is that Mills and Stock may be heading off and they dont score enough goals for a promotion side. I like Ipswich at an early glance though, Keane will sort the squad out and there is money to spend. Watch out for their signings in the summer for sure.

But its too early to be placing any bets.

[SWFC_Naps.]

I wrote out war and peace earlier and then the server went down, so I lost it. Gutted.

I shall start it again;

STAY AWAY FROM SOUTH YORKSHIRE TEAMS THIS SEASON.

The simple reason is, none of em have the resources to compete at the top level this season.

Sheffield Wednesday: Have increased our budget by £2M this season. We have already snapped up Darren Purse and Tommy Miller on free transfers which will add massive experience, a strong captain, but not much else. I expect these to be complimented by a holding midfielder and a striker. This will leave our squad capable of turning over any team, but worryingly thin in certain areas (we only have 1 pro goalkeeper on the books). We will be lucky to finish 10th again and I'm sure we would take consolidation and focus developing things off the field, such as the investment issue and basically repairing all the damage the previous incumbents caused.

Sheffield United: Their business model will be looking to trim £10M per year from their operating budget, the majority of this from player sales. Their ownders company VALAD has already swallowed up the £20M Tevez money and the PLC have had to sell some good assets, like their health club in London. Valad is really struggling and its also rumoured that their feeder club Chengdu Blades are making a substantial loss as well. It seems that SUFC have been chasing a support base in China that simply isn't there. They have already sold James Beattie, last seasons top scorer despite the fact he left in January! Halford won't be signing permanently either. You'd expect that Naughton will be leaving in the summer to make up the rest of that deficit, and the team has basically lost their top 3 players at this level. You'd expect them to have a small amount to increase the squad depth, but it simply won't be enough to get in the quality needed, and I expect them to finish out of the playoffs next season.

Doncaster won't keep hold of their better players so will struggle to improve enough to make the step up to top half, especially when you take into account their budget against everyone else.

Barnsley well, they only just stayed up this season and another long season in store for them.


The problem with this league is, you've got Forest who reportedly have upto £20M to spend, QPR are owned by the richest owners in the country, Mandaric will throw money at Leicester, Derby have a very good set up with their American Backers and will be in a position to sign players, Boro and Newcastle will be losing most of their squads and will be spending money on buying new players to fit into this league. Ipswich will also be throwing money around. West Brom are already good enough, especially if they keep Brunt and will be right up there.

When you take into account the amount of money that will be available, and the subsequent vastly over inflated transfer fee's, the South Yorkshire clubs simply don't have the resources to compete, and will either stay around where they are or go backwards this season.

[SecondSight]

Good write up Naps

However Boro will unlikley lose most of their squad. They need to raise another £11m either through net transfers or net wage cut backs. In todays market they could sell Downing for around £14m to £15m plus £2.5m wages saving per annum and play Adam Johnson would be one option. According to newspaper reports Fulham alone have bid £3m for Aliadiere, £5m for Tuncay and £5m for Gary O'Neill. Two thirds of the club debts have been paid back by Gibson over the Summer. Matthew Bates has signed a new contract, after considering offers from WHU and Wigan, plus Mark Yates has been signed for £0.5m from Colchester rejecting Palace, Sheffield United and Bristol City to come to the Boro. Second choice keeper Ross Turnbull has rejected a new contract at present, so is very likely to leave and I would expect around 4 players to follow him. Chairman Gibbo has been on local radio saying the squad was too young last season and it will be more experienced this season.

Last time they were relegated they were 7/2 to win the Championship (and finished second) they are now 8/1 - interesting.

[SWFC_Naps.]

Cheers SecondSight.

Still think the point is valid however, if you get rid of Downing, Aliadiere (no major loss there), Tuncay, O'Neill, Turnbull and any others who are deemed surplus to requirements, thats still something of a small exodus and all those players will need replacing - which means your one of a number of clubs in this division looking to sign good players - the Sheffield clubs simply don't have the resources to compete. I like the 8/1 mate, never had a problem with 'Boro, letting Chris Brunt go was the best thing that happened to Sheff Wed in probably the last 10 years. He will end up playing for Tottenham or Villa or some other mid-table prem side in a year or two..

As an update, Sheff Wed have taken Hull utility-player Ryan France on trial. Pleased about this as he's Sheff born and Wednesday bred, and he is also predominantly a holding midfielder. Can also cover right wing and right back, which is something that could prove useful. Sounds like Anichebe may be coming here on loan for a season which would also be a massive boost. We've managed to fend of Burnley (so far) and keep hold of Tudgay, but Spurr, Wood, Grant and Tudgay have all yet to actually sign their new contracts, hopefully something that will be sorted this week. Looks like my predictions for the other two signings are looking spot on.

Sheff Utd have bought Williamson, they have taken Kyel Reid and Glenn Little on trial (both wingers) but the fact they are in for small fee or free transfer players says everything at this point. They can't carry on being linked with players without getting rid of someone, I'm fully expecting Naughton to go before the season starts.

That said, Sheff U are still going to be a hard team to beat at this level, I certainly can't see us smashing them twice again and its going to be interesting to see the two clubs competing between 12th - 6th to see who can get the upper hand and try to sneak into the playoffs.

At the end of this week I'm going to look into putting my ante-post bets up as we should have a clear idea of who is going to be at it in the final run-in.

[deadandburied]

hey guys, it's going to be Newcastle isn't it? They desparately wants to fight their way back to the premiership and I think they can do it! lol

[SWFC_Naps.]

What with?

We're on July the 2nd and we don't know who the owners will be at the start of the season, they don't have a manager, they haven't made any signings to cover the mass-exodus that will HAVE to happen to stop the club from going under.

The will to win doesn't win you the league I'm afraid. What will win you this league is organisation, heart, industry and luck.

Sure, at the moment you have a team full of internationals with plenty of technical ability (for their respective countries, at least, doesn't seem to be in abundance when they play domestically) but when the vultures have picked the meat from your squad your going to be left with big holes, by which time all the players worth having will have been snapped up by your peers.

Take it from me, Shola Ameobi might well look to you like he can do a bit, but I saw him in this league and he was marked out of the game by Richard Wood. He spat his dummy out and almost got sent off, against our mild mannered young centre half. God only knows how he will react to people like Chris Morgan, Darren Moore and the like kicking him at every possible opportunity.

Its a sad situation, but take it from someone who has been from Prem to Championship and seen the step down and the culture shock. Your more likely to go down than up, and I shall be splurging some cash on that periodically at 14.5 on Betfair.

[AK1979]

2.50	O Martins								O Martins								6/4
4.33	M Viduka								M Viduka								10/3
5.50	S Ameobi								S Ameobi								9/2
8.50	A Carroll								A Carroll								15/2
9.00	P Lovenkrands								P Lovenkrands								8
11.00	Xisco								Xisco								10
15.00	A Smith								A Smith								14
19.00	D Duff								D Duff								18

Speaking of Ameobi, here is a paddypower market for top Newcastle goalscorer next year. i think the first 2 will be sold. I cant bet on Ameobi, so Carroll looks a big price at 15/2.

[boyd]

Viduka has already been released so don't know why he's even on that list. His contract expired. I think you could back both Ameobi and Carroll to gain a profit unless another striker is brought in, as like you have stated i doubt Martins will be at Newcastle this season.

[Stuey]

Originally Posted by AK1979

Speaking of Ameobi, here is a paddypower market for top Newcastle goalscorer next year. i think the first 2 will be sold. I cant bet on Ameobi, so Carroll looks a big price at 15/2.

I would wait before betting on that, Carroll didnt exactly set the championship alight when he was on loan at Preston, think he only scored one goal. The rumours are we are going to sign Beckford as soon as the sale of the club goes through if it ever happens , if that happens he would be my bet.

[kevshat]

There's a couple I've taken at Boyles for small stakes in this division. I think Notts Forest have recruited very well and while I don't particularly like Billy Davies, I do appreciate that he knows how to be successful in this division. He took PNE to the playoffs and then took Derby up through them so he knows what's required at this level. Adebola and Blackstock should provide good assistance for Earnshaw while McKenna is very solid in midfield. I think 22/1 is a decent ew punt in a really open division that could lack a standout piece of quality.

Another I've taken is Bristol City at 33/1. I think they've recruited really well. Paul Hartley can pull the strings in the midfield while Danny Haynes will score goals at this level. Nicky Maynard is top notch too and Lewin Nyatanga should sort out the defence. Expectations could be a bit lower at Ashton Gate this season to last season when as beaten playoff finalists everyone had their attention on them. Gary Johnson is a clever manager and although I'd rather they still had McIndoe, I still think he's put together a squad capable of being right in the mix this season.

[bowles10]

think Bristol City kev will do their usual & be thereabouts only to fall away. I like Gary Johnson & i think his lad Lee Johnson is one of the most under rated players around but i dont see they have the strength in depth for me to be a major factor in this division. Their strong point is thier keeper Basso who shared the golden gloves with our keeper Cerny last year.

[kevshat]

Do their usual? They only did it last season mate. Season before they were in the playoffs and given WBA were too good for anyone that season that was no mean achievement. His signings this season are very shrewd and top up a decent side which was there. Clarkson will go well and as I said I really rate Maynard. I don't see a standout side this season so 33/1 on Bristol City for me screams value.

[bowles10]

Originally Posted by kevshat

Do their usual? They only did it last season mate. Season before they were in the playoffs and given WBA were too good for anyone that season that was no mean achievement. His signings this season are very shrewd and top up a decent side which was there. Clarkson will go well and as I said I really rate Maynard. I don't see a standout side this season so 33/1 on Bristol City for me screams value.

as i said, they tend to be around the top for a long while but then tend to struggle towards the end, that play off season, they should have sorted automatic promotion but for a poor finish.

06/07
Despite a slow start to the following season, which saw a vocal minority of fans calling for Johnson to be sacked after a 4-2 home defeat by Blackpool(who were eventually also promoted), City were in the top six of League One by November and at the end of the month began an 11-match unbeaten run which drove them to the top of the division. Promotion to the Championship was confirmed on the final day of the season with a 3-1 win over doomed Rotherham.

07/08
After a stop start run of form including victories over Blackpool and Coventry and losses to QPR and Crystal Palace city went top of the Championship on March 1 after a 2-1 home victory over Hull City. After a poor run of form city went back to the top after a last gasp winner from Steve Brooker, who was just returning from injury, in a 2-1 win over Norwich City. However a poor run of form ended City's chances of an automatic promotion place. On 4 May 2008, a 3-0 home win against Preston North End on the final day of the league season ensured a play-off place and a semi-final fixture against Crystal Palace. On 13 May 2008 a 4-2 aggregate win over Crystal Palace with goals from Lee Trundle and Michael McIndoe confirmed City's trip to Wembley, where they were beaten 1-0 by Hull City.

08/09
They reached the play off positions during the season only to fall away during the last 2 months or so.


We will see, but if our management duo works out, i think we will finish higher than Bristol City. We have a lot of rivalry with them after the league one duels back about 6 years ago.