England > BlueSQ South 2009-10 Antepost

[Shipsupstreets]

	Chelmsford City	7	6	7
	Eastleigh	8	8	8
	Dover Athletic	6	9	7
	Hampton & Richmond	9	8	8
	Woking	9	7	7
	Newport County	7	10	9
	Bath City	14	12	14
	Havant & Waterlooville	14	16	14
	Maidenhead United	16	16	14
	Welling United	16	16	12
	Bishop's Stortford	18	14	14
	Weymouth	16	20	12
	Lewes	28	28	20
	Braintree Town	28	33	20
	Bromley	20	33	25
	St Albans City	28	33	25
	Staines Town	20	20	33
	Basingstoke Town	33	40	50
	Worcester City	40	50	40
	Dorchester Town	50	66	50
	Weston-super-Mare	40	66	50
	Thurrock	66	80	66
Place terms (Highlight E/W)		3 1/4		3 1/4

[Danny West]

First touch for me is Newport County. They finished strongly last season after a poor start (after Holdsworth weeded out some of the dross he signed in the summer and added a bit of quality during the season).

Holdsworth has been busy in the summer adding Dave Gilroy, Scott Rogers, Charlie Henry and Gary Warren to a talented squad, which if it performs will challenge. The addition of Tim Harris to the club could also be a masterstroke.

[Yak]

I took some of Bishop's Stortford @ 24's and see that it's now down to 18's. The arrival of Gordon Boateng as assistant manager (and the several Cheshunt players that followed him to Woodside Park) saw an up-turn in Stortford's form for the second half of last season and I was really impressed with the style of football they played. Unfortunately they have lost Danny Green to Dagenham & Redbridge who will no doubt be hard to replace. However, the additions of Welling's leading goalscorer Charlie Sheringham, Braintree winger Louis Riddle & Maidenhead's player of the season, Ashley Nicholls makes me think that Stortford are value at 24's and definitely one to take a punt on each-way.

Dover are just the sort of team that are destined to win this league, back-to-back promotions with plenty of money behind them. A manager who can attract players who usually wouldn't drop down to the lower levels. And backed with good crowds. In my opinion, they will romp this league by a country-mile.

[Danny West]

Been in touch with bet365, they'll be releasing their odds for step three on July 27th!!!

[Shipsupstreets]

Originally Posted by Danny West

The addition of Tim Harris to the club could also be a masterstroke.

Agree totally with this, Danny. The more input he can have - and I expect it will be substantial - the better County will be. Holdsworth cut a very isolated figure at times last season, and I think it's a step in the right direction to address that problem. He's sometimes dismissed as something of a tourist at non-league management level, but that's not the case - he does, though, perhaps want to do it all himself. That might work at Redbridge, but not when you're trying to get into the BlueSQ Prem. Tim Harris worked wonders at Gloucester City in and out of the dugout, and he has a proper understanding of what's required at this level. They should go very well.

[Shipsupstreets]

Newport are coming up at 9s at Ladbrokes. Woking and Dover are joint favourites at 7s. For me, there's some value in that Newport bet, plus the 9s being offered about full-time Woking by BlueSQ, though there is a question mark over the management, at least until the real business start.

[Danny West]

Have Woking added much quality to thier squad after releasing/losing almost an entire squad shortly after the season ended?

I know they've brought in a lot of players, the question is can they gel in time, is the quality there and have they enough money to maintain a push should it happen?

As well as being on Newport I'm also on Dover, they have a strong squad from last season (and have added two more to date) and with just a bit more tweaking they should have the depth to make a sustained challenge. Also teams who've come up from the Ryman in recent seasons have done very well in Blue Square South.

[ivor1875]

I have to agree with all that tim harris is a great signing from newport to take the pressure of holdsworth. And he has great rapport with the newport fans from his previous days there as manager.

Dover should go well,a good manger in hesentahler,great support and of course the ryman winners traditionally go well.Although it does seem that they are not going to throw silly money at it.and it will be done on budget;and budget is goi ng to be the key word for so many teams in the non league this season.

A major dissapointment last season was of course the pre-season favourites havant.They were so poor on the no of occasions that i saw them and yet they looked to have as good as squad as anyone.They were hitting the ball far too long last season .

And yet the pressure is off them now,manny williams can score for fun at this level,could be an inspired signing, and crucially they are well run on and off the pitch,they never wasted the liverpool money,they have quality sponsors,are building the ground up nicely and i have a feeling that they can go well this season.Patient though trevor hebard and co have been,shaun gale has to hit the ground running early,the hawks have to hit the play-offs .

Elsewhere staines look big at 33's with ladbrokes.They too are well run,have a very good manger in steve cordery,they do play football that has always looked better than the ryman prem,and i do not think that the play-offs are beyond them with a fair wind behind them.Like the ryman champs,the play-off winners from this league always go well in the conf south.

And i may be cracking up but worcester were far from the worst side that i saw last season.Richard dryden impresses me.Agreed that they always have the money/new ground issues,but i will be keeping an eye on them for the individual games this season.

[Shipsupstreets]

Corals are showing Newport County at 10/1 and that's enough for me. I'm pretty sure they'll go well, with a pacier squad and the nous of Tim Harris.

I am impressed with the Woking signings. Harry Arter will be a real star - his cameos for Welling last season showed he had just the right qualities for this division. Sam Sloma and Tony Sinclair are better than the average journeyman and Mark Ricketts is a decent midfielder. They need more, of course, but if they can get another four or five with that quality, they should have a decent squad. Yes, they'll need to gel, but with extra training sessions they are in a much better position than the section's other relegated rebuilders, Weymouth and Lewes. I have a question mark about boss Graham Baker, because I don't know too much about him, but he is widely respected and Jimmy Dack is a useful sidekick. They're no gimme, but I think they'll go well.

This is, though, a thoroughly competitive section. I can make a case for most of the top 10 in the betting winning it. And the couple that I can't, I'll be opposing in the match betting.

[wittonalbion2]

I think you're right about Weymouth. Undoubtedly they've got the right men both in charge of the club and the team, but in Matty Hale the board have got a manager who is playing a long game - signing youngsters and bringing them on, although to a large extent he has little option due to the lack of funds at the club.

Signings so far have concentrated on the back line and midfield, which tells you something about where Weymouth's season is going to go - a mid-table finish would be about the best they can hope for. I'd love for them to prove me wrong, but without a recognised striker at present and with little experience in the side, it's going to be a long old season.

[Shipsupstreets]

The first fixtures have been priced up at BlueSQ and I have to say Dover Athletic are a great price at 6/4 away at Maidenhead United. Dover still need to add a bit more the squad, and of course have the time to do it. Maidenhead were my outside tip for a play-off spot last season, and they did pretty well, but they are stuffed by finances at the moment and have shed the bulk of their best performers. A long hard season is in prospect.

[Shipsupstreets]

There have been fewer price movements in the South than North, reflecting the fact that the markets were already priced up for an open contest, which is how the section looks on this rainy July morning. Dover have been the biggest mover, which I can understand, but I have a nagging doubt about the depth of the squad and also what will happen if a job comes up for Andy Hessenthaler. But these aren't huge question marks, and I wouldn't put anyone off if they had a strong fancy. Newport have come in a tick from 10s but still look excellent value, and would for a good part of an antepost EW multiple - Southport and Stevenage would be perfectly acceptible bedfellows in a treble.

Woking are still available at 9s, which I have taken but is an altogether braver selection. I'll probably get to a couple of their friendlies so I'll have a better idea if I have a sporting chance with that one.

[Shipsupstreets]

Interesting to see Hampton & Richmond drifting in the markets and they're now available at 10s in places. That seems pretty surprising for a side that has competed well for two seasons at this level and not really got the breaks in the big games. The likely starting XI seems, if anything, a little stronger than this time last year. They were pretty solid tonight in winning at Kingstonian, with their tried and tested 5-3-2 formation and a physical presence which soon took the edge off a lively home side. They do the simple things as well as anyone in the section, and if they lack one thing it's that devillish quality that can conjour up something from nothing. Lawrence Yaku and Keiron Knight didn't really fire tonight, though Francis Quarm was excellent for the hour he was on the pitch, but H&R are a points-gathering machine with the foundation at the back, and they were pretty well marshalled by Dean Wells. Kingstonian played their part first half and Bobby Traynor's equaliser was just reward for a hard-working performance from him and Carl Wilson-Dennis. They won't have many more physical nights in the Ryman Prem. It'll be interesting to see how they get on against Woking Saturday. I do think Woking will go well this season, though they are some steps behind H&R in their preparation. I'm speculating that they can fast-track their way into the season with full-time training.

As I've said before this is a competitive section, and I wouldn't put anyone off H&R at 10/1. Over the seasons, I've been guilty of underestimating them but I think they'll be in the mix come April.

[Shipsupstreets]

There wasn't much to learn at Kingstonian/Woking yesterday from a punting point of view. The Ks won 2-0 with two early goals and look every inch a comptetive outfit in the Ryman Prem next season. Woking - who I've backed at 9s - fielded different outfield sides in each half. There's a worthwhile comparison to made with Hampton & Richmond Borough, who I saw play the Ks last Wednesday: Woking were nowhere near as physical in their approach (but then few sides are). They were also pacier and played more football, building through playmaker Harry Arter, who formed a decent partnership in centre midfield with Mark Ricketts - I'm guessing this will be the preferred pairing in a 4-4-2 formation. Up front, Guiseppe Sole looked classy, hitting the post early on when he should have scored, but he needs a proper sidekick - James Faulkner couldn't provide that yesterday. The centre back pairing of Tom Hutchison and Jonathan Boardman looks a very good one on paper, but they were a bit rusty yesterday. In fact, the whole defence was - gifting both goals to Kingstonian in the first 20 mins. The first was a carbon copy of the goal Bobby Traynor got against H&R - a cross from the right that he volleyed in unmarked from three yards out. For the second, the offside trap stepped up too late, allowing Carl Wilson-Denis in. Curiously, in the second half, Woking's triallist-heavy second string were well on top.

I'm still reasonably bullish about Woking's chances. Some weeks back I recommended Newport at 10/1 with Corals. That has since gone, but Corals have kindly adjusted the Woking price out to 9s, which is the price I'd already bagged. I'm tempted to add more. But with Welling, Chelmsford, Eastleigh, Bishop's Stortford and Hampton coming up in the first month of the season it might be worth waiting for a better price. 9/1, though, looks decent.

[Shipsupstreets]

I'm not thrilled by BlueSQ's match betting prices in the BlueSQ South, but they have some interesting handicap bets. The outright markets are very tight and that's reflected in the handicaps, with Dover scratch, Newport +3, Chelmsford +4, Eastleigh +5, Woking +5 and H&R +7.

Now, I'm no expert at this kind of betting, but I am guessing that if this does prove a close league, the team that is a potential contender but getting the most points is going to go pretty close on the handicap. By that reasoning, 16/1 Bishop's Stortford getting +15 look a decent play. They've made some good signings with Charlie Sheringham and Ashley Nicholls coming in, and they've also bagged ex-Cheshunt winger Ola Akinnauo. Key for me with this bet is that the teams also getting +15 (Maidenhead, Welling and Weymouth) look less well prepared for the season. Ivor has already mentioned Worcester City, and they are getting +26, which is not at all a shabby bet if they remain injury free. I also think Weston-super-Mare will surprise a few people this season, and +27 looks interesting also. But as things stand Bishop's Stortford at 16/1 getting +15 is the bet for me.

[Shipsupstreets]

Lewes face a winding up order on Sept 2. This is potentially serious as it's the third hearing, which is when the judge usually loses patience with the empty promises made at the first two. I would think there is a high chance of administration.

[Shipsupstreets]

Hampton & Richmond's 1-0 over Luton was deserved today, despite the fact that Luton missed two first-half penalties. If there's one side in the Conny South you don't hand a lifeline too, it's H&R: help them ashore, and they just push you in. After being second best in the first half - outpassed and outpaced, they had to rely on packing the defence, and also the fact that Luton couldn't hit the target with two pens (one against the post, one into that funny stand behind the goal), they just soaked it up and waited their chance. It didn't look as if it would come, though Lawrence Yaku found a couple of good positions, and from the second of these he managed to squeeze the ball home, making something of a fool out of George Pilkington. They might have had more after that. With a week to go until the first game, they are functioning well in the style that we've become used to: 3-5-2 when they have the ball, 5-3-2 when they don't. They are the section's ultimate system side. Every outfield player knows exactly what he's doing. Though they didn't have the range of passes, flicks and clever runs that Luton had in the first half, they stick to their task like a loyal pack of hounds. It was noticeable also that they weren't disrupted by subs - the rest of the squad knows its job, too. There isn't a great deal of the sort of skill that makes you gasp, although Ashley Smith offers something different going forward, but unless the team is disrupted, it's hard to see them finishing out of the top 5.