England > BlueSQ Prem play-off finals May 18

[Shipsupstreets]

Sunday, May 18, 4pm

Exeter City v Cambridge United

Best prices:

		Bookmaker	Betting Exchange
	Exeter City	13/8	1.6/1
	Draw	23/10	2.3/1
	Cambridge Utd	17/10	1.6/1

[Shipsupstreets]

Exeter are coming in slightly in the betting, and I can see the justification for that (they play better football), although this is a very close match. The reason for that closeness is a Cambridge United side who are one of the tougher outfits in the section - they are a keep-it-tight team, scoring fewer than any of the top eight in the final standings. But they showed they are more than just admirable terriors in turning around a deficit - albeit with some huge slices of luck - at Burton in the semi, and pressing home the momentum from that comeback in the second leg. Exeter are much more thrill-a-minute, but prone to asonishing blips at the back - they had the second worst defensive record over the season in the top 10.

Given all that, it should be a pretty good game: if Exeter lead, they won't shut up shop - and I think they'll handle an early goal better than they did against Morecambe at Wembley last season (that Wembley experience is key); if Cambridge U score first, Exeter have tremendous attacking flair to unlock dogged opponents. But I'm not betting on the outcome - Paul Tisdale is a better manager than 12 months ago, but I think Jimmy Quinn is the better overall, and that may well be the key element today. I'll largely be trading in-running on spread markets, and there are some possible scenarios I'll be hoping for. An early Exeter City goal and I think I'll get on total goals: it won't tighten up. If Cambridge score first, I'll look at the corner markets, as I think Exeter will press forward, although it's fair to say their 'wingers' do their best work coming inside. Maybe Exeter corner supermacy, or Exeter multi-corners if it is early enough.

The player goal market spreads are pretty keenly priced. Dean Moxey and Wayne Carlisle were on my shortlist, and I may get on if either starts to get on top of their game. I have taken Matthew Gill at 4 with Spreadex - a lowish price for a player who knows where the goal is and who will hopefully stay on the field for the 90 this time. Fot Cambridge, Mark Albrighton is a interesting if the match scenario goes against Cambridge. He's 3 to buy everywhere. And I also like Wayne Hatswell at 4.