England > BlueSQ Prem 2009-10 Antepost

[kevshat]

Originally Posted by PRENTICE

Saw your picture in the Non League paper collecting your 2k Ships,nice work.
Luton and Oxford look way too short for me and Stevenage are defo value at 9-1.Finished season well and despite loss of morrison,have recruited well and kept most of a strong squad.Have been knocking on the door for a few seasons now and think this could be their year.Up the Boro!!!!

to PL Prentice.

I have changed my tune. I managed to get a little bit of the 4/1 on Luton and I've had a chunk on at 7/2. Confidence is massively high within the club at the minute and I'm assured nobody else is leaving other than for silly money. I maintain this squad is too good for this division (I'd strongly argue it's too good for League 2 but that can wait until next season ). We've got quality in there and we've now got barrels of Conference experience with more to come as well and I'm very confident we will go very very close to winning this division. We're rightful favourites anyway.

[Yak]

For those of you who are thinking of punting Boro' ante-post, I will say you're definitely going to get your money's worth this season. After a few months of "gelling" we really kicked on after Xmas with a few tweaks to a pretty strong squad. This season we fully expect to start on the front foot & if we do, I fancy us to really put in a proper challenge for the Blue Sq Premier title.

Was also nice to see Ships' in the NLP the other day. Top work & a cheeky little mention of the Punters Lounge. Well done & nice to see you are planning on re-investing the funds into your ante-posts!

[Shipsupstreets]

Originally Posted by PRENTICE

Saw your picture in the Non League paper collecting your 2k Ships,nice work.
Luton and Oxford look way too short for me and Stevenage are defo value at 9-1.Finished season well and despite loss of morrison,have recruited well and kept most of a strong squad.Have been knocking on the door for a few seasons now and think this could be their year.Up the Boro!!!!

Welcome to Punter's Lounge, Prentice! I look forward to your contributions this season.

Have to agree about Stevenage. I seem to have been tipping them on here every summer for about a decade now! They always lose my antepost money - I never get the BlueSQ Prem right! - although it has been a while since they opened in the antepost markets at this price. I think there is a fair bit to come off the price at the moment. I'd still make Luton favourites but with Stevenage tucked in just behind.

[BenH]

A couple of things worth pointing out...

This is a really, really tough league to get out of....i really wouldn't touch that Luton price with a bargepole at this stage....remember only one automatic spot from this division then one from the play off lottery.

It is fair to say that Luton have none of the problems of the previous relegated teams but that has been factored in by the bookies hence the price of 7/2 - 4-1.

The Conference is a real slog - look at the fixture chaos at the end of last season which scuppered several good teams play off chances.....

Add to that the massive statistical evidence against a relegated team gaining promotion the next season. I think it's happened maybe a couple of times but that's it. There is no major class diff between the top half of Conf and the bottom half of league 2.

Look at Exeter - scraped through Conf play offs, now in League 1.

The 46 fa cup finals factor is another solid negative.....Luton will be the big fish here and they will get a bloody nose from some of the minnows occasionally.

As has already been pointed out there is at least a couple of teams who can be ranked (at this stage) as good as Luton so someone is going to miss out.

Burton had to put in a phenomenal run of unbeaten games to win this league (and they nearly blew it) whoever wins it will have to do something similar...

I really don't think this is a Juve in Serie B scenario - the likes of Burgess, Adjaye are conference reg's they are not superstars amongst water carriers..

Luton deserve to be faves but the price looks fair to me.

[Shipsupstreets]

They're all good points, Ben, and when it comes to a fixture pile-up Luton might also have to fight a Johnstone's Paint campaign.

You make a powerful argument, and I wouldn't want to argue with the conclusions, but I'm not sure how much stats from the recent past are going to offer a guide to this season. There are factors against this being the kind of typical Conference season which have provided that solid bank of stats. There'll be more part-time sides than there have been for a few years and plenty of clubs cutting budgets. The future of Setanta puts a question mark over the TV money, which knowing some clubs will have already been spent. Of course, the personnel will be roughly the same - they have to play somewhere - but the gulf between those clubs with a real sense of focus and those in a bit of a mess will become wider.

[denon999]

Hey guys...

Just heard this depressing news, William HIll have become the first bookie to announce they will be suspending all bets towards the latter part of the season in the lower leagues, where they consider the match to be a non-entity, and open to suspicion..


according to W.Hill they have received 10 complaints from current players, with Names of other players who need investigating

[Shipsupstreets]

I'm not too surprised, denon. I think they're just flagging up the fact that they'll have no hesitation in suspending betting if a host of punters in Essex suddenly try to get on a surprising correct score. That's basically a software tweak. And if they really suspect something stinky has happened they won't pay out.

Alan Algar from BlueSQ was commenting on this some weeks back in the Non-league Paper, where he said that it's only the unusual patterns they're after - they've no desire to stop punters lumping on if word gets around that a particular star striker is injured (though they will, of course, cut prices and limit stakes, according to their liabilities).

A general tightening up is inevitable. I think this reflects how successful non-league gamblers have been and how many more people are getting involved, and we've already seem much tighter work by the compilers in the past two seasons. A few years back, it was all a bit laissez-faire - as I've said before, that was the golden age of non-league punting. The bookies didn't much bother because there was only a dozen of us at it! But money attracts money, which is why we're seeing more and more unsavoury elements like paid-for tipsters at this level, repackaging material that's freely available more quickly on sites like Punter's Lounge.

All these things are a shame, but they are inevitable.

[ivor1875]

Let us be honest here,william hill will be no major loss to the punting fraternity on here.They do cover the blue square prem,but other than the odd trophy game,that is it.

They are a decent bookmaker to be fair,you can get on a decent stake,they are prepared to take a bet.We do/did need ladbrokes and hills to go below step 1.

The big worry from my viewpoint would be paddy power and stan james and bet 365 puliing out, that would be a disaster.And paddy power have said that they may
not offer odds themselves on certain end of season games.

Ladbrokes had a very brief foray in to the markets last season,it lasted one week and it came after the weymouth-rushden game.

However trying to put some positive spin on things,the more punters who come into the non- league markets and with it the increased money,some bookie somewhere will always be prepared to take us on.

[BenH]

http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/sport/foo...n_agm_loophole

Maybe there will be more twists in the Conference after this w/e...

Possibly some good news also as it appears Setanta might have found a buy out after all, although nothing confirmed yet....

I personally hope the current tv deal does survive....after initial reservations i really enjoyed their coverage of the Conference. I know they caused chaos with fixture rearrangements but as a neutral fan of Conference football it was great to see this league have almost as much coverage as the Championship last season.

[bartonbank]

I think the Woking appeal is more in hope than expectation.

[Belly77]

That Woking chairmen is a bit of tw@t. He started a rumour last season that we were shortly going to enter administration just to take some heat of his own club. It has raised a few eyebrows that Chester are now out of administration though, something is definetly not right there.

Does anyone know whats happening with the games that are under investigation? Think it was Histon v Lewes and FGR v Grays.

It's a shame that the bookies are using the Rushden / Weymouth game as an excuse to cut their liability amongst us lower league gamblers. Everyone in the world seemed to know what was happening at Weymouth apart from the Bookies themselves. Think most of us were on by about Tuesday. They deserved everything they got on that Saturday.

[PRENTICE]

We have started to splash the Trophy cash and paid Rushden 10k plus Craig Farrell to get Michael Rankine who Bournemouth were keen on but couldnt afford.Also had a offer for 10k for Charles at Ebbsfleet but will take a lot more to prise him away I fear.We might be capable of a playoff push and will be interesting to see how many points we get when the season handicap lists appear.
Fear prices will take longer to appear this year with a lot of bad press non league betting received towards the back end of the season.

[uksubs77]

Hi Prentice &


As expected, Chester City were formally accepted into the BSP for the forthcoming season at the Conference AGM yesterday; all-be-it with a 10 point deduction for the season.

The club came out of adminsitration (subject to a CVA proposal) a couple of days ago having been purchased by Chester City 2004 Ltd. As a result of the purchase, the existing chairman & owner (Steven Vaughan) remains in charge with 100% of the shareholdings.

Very strange circumstances indeed and not totally unexpected with our "owners" past history.....

[Shipsupstreets]

BlueSQ have prices out for North and South, which I'll put as threads as soon as they make it to Odds-comparison. I'll refrain from comment so far, other than to say that - as expected - the prices are tighter than in season's past: the bookies are getting better. The good news is that so are we.

[Vilamoura04]

There is a lot of optimisim this year at oxford. Chris Wilder did an awesome job last season and brought in the professionalism and organisation that the club has sorely missed for a long time. He has transformed the club and what he doesnt know about conference footballers isnt worth knowing. Having said this, I think he did come in at the right time last year, when the team just had to start winning and the fear of losing no longer applied. The re-signing of Matt Green on a season loan has not gone down well either, after he turned us down acrimoniously this time last year. But players like Creighton and Bulman are exactly what the club needs, and if Sam Deering comes back half the player he was when he broke his leg he will be like a major signing. Many of the oxford fans are as bullish as always but I think the realists among us have now realised that it is an absolute nightmare getting out of this division. You need everything to go for you. There is so much to contend with. Opposition hatchet men, anti-football tactics, dodgy away pitches and grounds, shocking officials. And if they dont get you, Brian Lee will. There are so many unknowns that unless Man United were down here I dont think I would touch any team on the outrights at 7/2, even out of loyalty to my own team.

Luton have made some decent signings, Tyler looks like a great signing and Hatch could do well, but they have also made some very average signings and if they are pinning any hopes on Andy Burgess they are in serious trouble. I know he is a luton fan and therefore may be more inclined to put in the effort but the guy has some serious mental frailties and consistency issues. This talk of "luton arent like other teams who were relegated" reminds me of when we came down. It was a massive shock a the time because we had had a reasonable first half of the season and we werent in the relegation zone until literally after the final whistle of the last game. We came down with far superior players, facilities and attendances than the rest and expected to go straight back up. I suspect Luton may follow the same path as we did that year, and torquay did coming down the year after, killing everyone in the first half of the season in a wave of euphoria and then limping out in the second half.

Stevenage are an odd one, they have some good players and a manager with a long term plan, but they have lost Morison and brought in some strange replacements. I dont know about Byrom but cant see Yemi and Griffin firing them to the championship.

To the best of my recollection, in recent years the eventual winner has rarely been in the top 3 in the antepost betting, but I cant really find anyone in the chasing pack who looks like a contender, so finding it really difficult to find a bet here.

[Shipsupstreets]

Good points, Vilamoura. To be honest, if Green does well from the off, he'll soon be forgiven. It looks a very strong Oxford squad and I'll be very surprised if you're not top 5.

I'll keep maintaining that Luton are a little different to sides who come down (though I reserve the right to withdraw that statement when they lose 3-0 at Eastbourne in August!). Torquay arrived in the section with four contracted players and no manager - it took an insightful MDP on here to recommend them at 16/1 EW two seasons ago just as Buckle arrived. What did for them in the end that season, in my view, were some monochrome tactics. It'll be interesting to see if Luton have that flexibility in them. I think they do on balance, but the remaining prices are skinny.

Apart from a number of overpriced sides, the only real rick I've seen from the bookies thus far in this section is the 10/1 about Stevenage. Joel Byrom is an excellent signing. He brings skill, pace and creative options to the side, not just out wide but in the centre, too. I take your points about Charlie Griffin and Yemi - and you can add Chris Beardsley to the 'they're not Morison' category. But without Morison - who in reality is impossible to replace - I think Westley has been quite astute in putting together a different sort of attacking force for this season. They have plenty of option in there: it's possible to construct a strong midfield five with one up, a 4-3-3 when they look to get back in the game, and a 4-4-2 when they need to go like for like. Tactically, they look the most flexible of the top three in the betting - but, hey, it's only June!

It's a shame if no TV company picks up the Setanta tab this season because it will inevitably reduce the betting markets, particularly the spreads.

[wittonalbion2]

I'm definitely looking at Stevenage at 9s, as they've got the sort of squad that seems to fit the bill at this level - big and strong, get it up to the strikers quick and play the percentages.

I saw all the play off teams play last season and for me Stevenage can bully teams out of the game in a way that the others can't. This Stevenage team reminds me of the Conference winning sides of Aldershot and Dagenham.

Ok, Morison is a loss but Stevenage will be up there.

[Ebor]

York have signed another 3 players, and there's a buzz about the place after manager Martin Foyle has totaly restructured his team. 33/1 now represents value of still available.

[PRENTICE]

Glad to see us get Charles,Barrett and Gash from Ebbsfleet and the 80k we paid is big money in this league but hopefully well spent.Makes a nice change from the endless free transfer men we usually go for.Craig Nelthorpe from Oxford,Michael Rankine from Rushden and Alex Lawless from Forest Green are also on board and on paper we look usefull,famous last words but for me only Luton,Oxford and Stevenage should be shorter and 33-1 just has to be taken.A wave of euphoria is sweeping through the club and for the first time in many a season genuine hope for a decent year.

[Shipsupstreets]

The Ebbsfleet deal seems to have been put on hold. I have to say that I'm not totally sure that it's the best use of 80k in the currently climate, but whether it goes through or not it's a bold statement of intent.