England > BlueSQ North/South finals May 8-9

[Shipsupstreets]

BlueSQ South

Thurs May 8

		Bookmaker	Betting Exchange
	Eastbourne	11/8	1.32/1
	Draw	23/10	2.3/1
	Hampton	2	1.76/1

BlueSQ North

Fri May 9

		Bookmaker	Betting Exchange
	Barrow	11/8	1.3/1
	Draw	12/5	2.25/1
	Stalybridge Celtic	2	1.6/1

[Shipsupstreets]

Tomorrow's Setanta game looks less close than the spread firms make it. A 0.3 goal supremacy for Eastbourne is pretty decent to buy. It's fair to say Hampton have a bit more life in their game this season, though they are - when push comes to shove - stiflers, and I can't see then winning by more than a solitary goal, so the worst downside is 1.3. Eastbourne have the weapons to go for the neck when they have the chance, and a comfortable win for them is perfectly possible, making 0.3 an attractive buy.

I was hoping for a trade with Hampton's bookings, though the bookings markets itself has a very healthy chance of landing. Neither side is blessed with many shrinking violets. I'll leave that to the in-running markets as if things go against Eastbourne there is a chance they might lose it.

I'm unsure what the forward pairing for Eastbourne will be tomorrow, but with a full strength squad to choose from Andy Atkin will surely start, probably alongside Allan Tait. Both very decent players in decent nick, but the player goal minute quotes at Sporting are about right - they may not get 90 minutes. There are plenty of Crabbs to chose from, and Nathan Crabb is tempting at 8 to buy with Sporting, as he has started as a striker this season, but he'll probably be on the bench as an impact player. Older bro Matt Crabb is a decent play at 6 to buy. An attacking midfielder, he came on the first leg of the semi against Braintree and hit the bar, and played 90 minutes in the second leg. He likes potshots and takes freekicks. I'll defintely do Matt and may add Nathan too, but I think there is only a slim chance that both will start.

[BenH]

Spot on Ships, excellent anaylsis hope you did take Nathan as well...

I followed you in with Eastbourne on the Asians...

A travesty of a result, Hampton should have won quite comfortably but seemed to lack finishing quality. Hard to say how much the travelling problems hindered Eastbourne will be interesting to see how they do in a higher league.

[Shipsupstreets]

Yes, BenH - I did Nathan Crabb, but he was a void because he didn't start! Matt was pretty poor, so he was a loss for me, but the supremacy made up nicely. There were some fantastic trades available on Eastbourne's total goal minutes after an hour when Hampton started to get a little leggy and aimless - in the low 30s to buy and it made up with over 140pts profit. It was something of a travesty on the night, but in truth Eastbourne at their best are better than H&R. You're right to focus on H&R's problems up front: I've seen them on plenty of occasions this season and last, and they always seem to lack a proper forward pairing who play as a unit.

[Shipsupstreets]

The match tonight is a much trickier call, despite the interest in Barrow, after their superlative run. From a gambling point of view, both teams have been very lucrative this term - this thread got well into Barrow before the compilers or anyone else took any notice, and I was happy to land Staly in the ante-post market, tipped on here at 28/1 EW back in the summer.

Naturally, the blue-sky punter within is drawn to the handsome 90-minute fixed odds quotes about Stalybridge. Are they that much worse than Barrow? It's a tough one to call, because Barrow's 2008 is marked by consistency and momentum - no defeats since losing to Staly in January, and an incredibly tight defensive record. Staly haven't played nearly as well in the past month, and they do concede, but they have - as Ivor pointed out last week - a fine range of attacking options. In open play they mix it up in midfield and have plenty of width; they have strikers of contrasting attributes; they are useful at the freekicks and corners that come from this attacking play. I'd go so far as to say that they have the best attacking array in the section. But it's also true that sometimes they don't turn up, which makes this game a hideous one to call.

I've taken one spread trade so far. Sporting have set Staly's Paul Sykes's player goal minutes at 2 to buy. Fair enough I guess, on his goalscoring record this season, and the fact that he'll be busy at the other end of the pitch trying to pull the shirt of Rogan and Walker, but he's a midfielder by trade, and is a real presence at corners. If Barrow are leading and soaking up pressure - a potential scenario - then Sykes will be at the business end. It's unlikely to land, though if it does it can land pretty big, and the downside is only twice the stake.

There are plenty of possible other trades tonight. Given the scenario of Staly being behind and chasing (not that they give up chasing even when they are leading), Staly's multi-corners at 8 with IG looks to have some potential. I can see that making up 15 or 16 (multis is first half multiplied by second half corners). I'm also drawn to total goals at 2.7 with IG, but there is a possibility that Barrow can score one and stick. However, if Staly are looking likely then total goals will be a buy - that'll be an early in-running trade for me.

Other player goal minutes opportunities? For Barrow, only Andrew Bond stands out for me at 6 with IG to buy. I like Matt Henney but his double-figure prices are about right. Staly's Lee Ellington - a player I've been keeping an eye on since his league days - is a mouthwatering 11 to buy with IG. He's been injured of late, but played a decent part in the play-off semi and should start tonight, though with both sides having decent benches, it's always likely a pick can be subbed after 60 minutes. Also eye-catching with IG is Staly's Ashley Winn at 7 - a good player on his day, though perhaps a little short of his best at the moment. I'll wait for Spreadex's numbers before I do anything else.

Like last season, I am looking forward to the North final so much more than the South - the contrast in the sides means that with a bit of luck it should be a helluva ride.

[Shipsupstreets]

Lee Ellington starts and his player goal minutes are still available at 11. That's a very decent price about a dangerous player.

[NewPunter]

Barrows going up!!! Brilliant

[Shipsupstreets]

Nice one, New Punter! They deserved it too, despite the near things for Staly near the end. They always looked the more coherent footballing side, and I think the full-backs and wide midfielders did an absolutely superb job in making sure Staly couldn't attack down this route. Barrow remind me a little of the Salisbury City side, and they did just fine in the Prem.