England » Barclays Premier League » Feb 9/10

[Marcus1874]

Cheers, on the Willhill help section, it gives the rules of the Asian Handicap, saying that you get your stake back if your chosen team wins by 1 goal...but on the main site I can only find the choice for the normal handicap, shown above. I'll keep looking though.


edit: Never mind, I think the help section is just that, explaining the terms of the Asian Handicap...it doesn't say that they offer the market...but I don't know why they bothered to explain how a market works, if they aren't offering it.

[Jk]

Fulham v Burnley

Fulham rarely conede goals, whilst Burnley rarely score away from home. Fulham conceded only 6 goals in their last 11 home league games, whilst Burnley have only scored 8 away from home all season, and all those came in the space of 3 games where they still ended up losing.

Fulham have struggled since losing Dempsey, but should be too strong for Burnley tonight.

Fulham 1-0 @ 6/1 : 2.5pts
Fulham 2-0 @ 13/2 : 2.5pts

[newestpunter]

couple of bets look interesting to me - simply on a supersticious point of view

last time city and bolton played it was 3-3, last time coyle took a team to city of manchester (burnley this season) it was 3-3

both sides will be looking to overcome weekend disappointment and so will go gung ho imo

man city vs bolton, back 3-3, £2 @ 95

the next 2 will be to back under 1.5 goals in everton vs chelsea and villa vs man utd

both games pit title chasing away teams against 4th place chasing home teams so i think they will be tight affairs

villa and everton will have seen how both teams comfortably beat arsenal and so will be desperate to hold them - gonna take this as a double, £2 @ 11.14

good luck gents

[Mustafa]

Originally Posted by newestpunter

couple of bets look interesting to me - simply on a supersticious point of view

last time city and bolton played it was 3-3, last time coyle took a team to city of manchester (burnley this season) it was 3-3

both sides will be looking to overcome weekend disappointment and so will go gung ho imo

man city vs bolton, back 3-3, £2 @ 95

That is something to consider even though it looks unlikely. But it is worth a small stake, so if the game ends 3-3 you wouldn't blame yourself.

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by valuepunter

Bold statement. I somewhat agree with the logic but it's important to remember that historical data and trends are ways for us to help discern the most likely outcome, but the outcomes work completely independently to the data. The probability of variance doesn't change.

What I'm saying is if, hypothetically, Chelsea lost 4 away game last season, but this season they lost their first 4 away games, that doesn't mean Chelsea are now more likely to go unbeaten away for the rest of the season, at least to any significant degree (unless the 4 teams they lost to were the same 4 as the previous year).

Just thought I'd throw that out there. Especially when they have Arsenal on wednesday
edit - really hope that didn't come across as patronizing, didn't mean to be, just didn't want anybody seeing a God punter saying Liverpool are unlikely to lose for the rest of the season and going nuts

Not at all.

That's why I used the word unlikely. I'm not saying categorically that they won't lose for the rest of the season. I'm saying that the chances of them losing too many more fixtures have decreased. In my eyes. Obviously, there'll be other punters out there that disagree and put forward another theory.

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by Bar Grill

I think everyone knows the situation with Portsmouth but to many are overreacting to Sunderlands recent bad form. Based on where I would expect the teams to be in the league table at the end of the season I would expect this price to be a shade under 3.0. There is enough quality in the team to get them out this current slump.

Might have to agree to disagree on this one!

Then that would be reflected in a completely different market. Like, to be relegated or something

Sunderland, one win away from home are a poor price. For the same reasons I thought our price when away from home was poor at the start of the season. If a side can't win away, it usually means they will struggle away from home against most sides. Unless they come up against Derby County of recent years.

Sunderland have spent a lot of money, so they're expected to do the business week in week out, and their price naturally decreases.

[markd]

Man City vs Bolton

Besides outstanding Chelsea Manchester City is the only unbeaten hometeam in PL (8-3-0). Bolton on the other hand is 15th in Away table with a record of 2-2-6. If Manchester City wants to stay in touch with the first four a win against maybe relegation team at home is a must.

Fulham vs Burnley


Fulham not being a bad home side at all with a 7-2-3 record faces worst away side Burnley with an away record of 0-1-11. If Burnley avoids relegation its because of their home record - away they'll get nothing in Fulham this week in my opinion.

[blackcrow]

Portsmouth - Sunderland over 2.5 @ 2.15 bet365
Both teams are desperate for the points here, and it is reasonable to expect that this will be an open game. The problem with both sides is that they cannot stop the opposition from scoring. Portsmouth have conceded in their last 5 games while Sunderland have conceded in 4 of their last 5 games but have allowed at least 2 goals in their last 4 away games. While Portsmouth have a poor home record with just 3 wins and a draw from 11 games, Sunderland have won just 1 game of their 12 away games this season, so either team looks likely to win but if anything, the duo of Bent and Jones up front for the visitors do have an edge in ability over their opposition and like the look of them scoring here. Whether that will be enough to win the game given the way their defence is unable to stop goals remains to be seen but the over looks favourable here under these circumstances

Man City -1.5 @ 2.30 bet365
Man City have a very good record at home and have won their last 4 games at home scoring at least 2 goals in each and a total of 12 goals, while also have two clean sheets. Expect them to bounce back at home with a win here as they vie with several other teams for a Champions League spot. Bolton come to Manchester without one of their better players in Cahill at the back, as they have just 1 clean sheet in their last 23 away games in the EPL. They recently lost to Liverpool and Arsenal by two goal margins and with Adebayor and Tevez up front in good form, hard to see them stopping a City side that has such a good variety of attacking players, who usually play well at home

Fulham -1.5 @ 3.10 bet365
Fulham will be confident that their defence will hold against a Burnley side that has not scored in their last 3 away games but have allowed 6 goals in these games. Fulham have not allowed a goal in their last 2 games and have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 games at home. With Zamora returning for this game, expect his aerial presence to cause Burnley problems while Duff and Murphy in midfield have the ability to unlock a poor defence such as the one that Burnley has on the road.

[shatmyself]

Im going for my usual Man City performance points bet, it hasnt let me down yet,

Man City performance points over 50points @ 3.10 with willhills

The loss of cahill will hurt bolton, city will want to bounce back from two poor performances, they do like attacking at home, they will miss bellamy though, but with ade and tevez on form they should over power bolton, they average roughly 10 corners at home, i think its value in this bet

6pts city over 50pts @ 3.10

Good luck

[marvel]

Hi everybody!!

One question, please:

Why is West Ham so short?? 2.27 at Pinacle. I don't understand...

Am I missing anything?? Will Birmingham City focus on FA Cup match??

I'm waitting for comments... Thanks in advance.

Best Regards

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by marvel

Hi everybody!!

One question, please:

Why is West Ham so short?? 2.27 at Pinacle. I don't understand...

Am I missing anything?? Will Birmingham City focus on FA Cup match??

I'm waitting for comments... Thanks in advance.

Best Regards

West Ham have two wins in their last six home fixtures. Birmingham have only lost to Chelsea away from home since October.

This fixture will have an added twist to it with former Birmingham City owners, David Gold and David Sullivan, now in charge at West Ham.

[Mustafa]

Originally Posted by blackcrow

Portsmouth - Sunderland over 2.5 @ 2.15 bet365
Both teams are desperate for the points here, and it is reasonable to expect that this will be an open game. The problem with both sides is that they cannot stop the opposition from scoring. Portsmouth have conceded in their last 5 games while Sunderland have conceded in 4 of their last 5 games but have allowed at least 2 goals in their last 4 away games. While Portsmouth have a poor home record with just 3 wins and a draw from 11 games, Sunderland have won just 1 game of their 12 away games this season, so either team looks likely to win but if anything, the duo of Bent and Jones up front for the visitors do have an edge in ability over their opposition and like the look of them scoring here. Whether that will be enough to win the game given the way their defence is unable to stop goals remains to be seen but the over looks favourable here under these circumstances.

Even though both teams need a win really bad it does not mean there will be plenty of goals. Tottenham - Aston Villa was also predicted as a high scoring game and it ended 0-0.

I guess this game will end in a draw, most probably 0-0.

[Kosher Readies]

Arsenal v Liverpool

This game is a tough one to call with Liverpool's form picking up of late and Arsenal's in decline. Arsenal's last three games have been very difficult but having watched all three I can't trust them enough to back them. So, I'll be having a look at the goal markets.

Initially I was going to go with the 'both teams to score' after looking at the previous results between the two which is priced up around 1.75. However, over 2.5 goals is 2.14 with Betfair so I'll be going with this as it only requires one more goal and 11 out of 12 league games at the Emirates have went over this season

Selection

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.14 with Betfair - 4 units

GL All

[newestpunter]

i think people backing fulham should be wary

burnley have signed some decent players during the window

also, i dont think people should look at burnley as being 0-1-11 away from home as the majority of those matches were under coyle

under laws, burnley should have been well ahead against man utd away before losing, lost by the odd goal to bolton away and to chelsea at home and then beat west ham

while fulham havent been the best and even zamoras return might be too early

[ultravires]

My thoughts are exactly the same JK. 1-0 and 2-0 Fulham for me too. Only 1 point each.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool

Here I think we will have a very tentative match. Arsenal have been comprehensively beaten by the two best teams in the league. And while Liverpool are far from being Chelsea or Man Utd they are of course still a threat to Arsenal. Liverpool have conceded 1 goal in their last 7 matches, therefore keeping 6 clean sheets. They will continue to miss Torres which is as well all know a huge loss going forward. Without him they have very few players that can make a goal themselves. Kuyt can score the scrappy goals which are important but that is not enough. I don't think either side will swarm forward in attack. Arsenal have problems with their forwards, although Arshavin seems to love playing Liverpool. I see a tight game that both teams would be happy to draw. To lose against Liverpool would mean bringing them within striking distance of themselves.

I'll take the draw @ 3.45 - 2 points.
CS - 0-0 @11 - 1 point

[J-unit]

Portsmouth - Sunderland

Heres a matchup that both team fancy to get 3 points out of..Everybody know about the problems surrounding Portsmouth. Still there performances have been pretty good. They play rather well as a team. Grant sacrifised the game against Man U and rested some players showing where the focus is. I think it was a smart smart move as they had nothing to get from that match anyway.Last time these two teams met ended 2-1 in Portsmouths favour so they know they can beat them. Sunderland havent won in ages and are struggling badly to find goals. Pressured to turn the bad streak aroung I see them feeling lots of pressure to beat the team that is already relegated unless a miracle happens. With Sunderlands low confidence and clueless play and home teams focus and good play I see them unleashing all there frustration and get a good win and give the fans little joy with the all thats been going on, in what could come to be Steve Bruce last game in charge.

Portsmouth @2.43
Portsmouth -1.5 @4.8
Correct result 4-1@81


Fulham - Burnely

At first glance Looking, I was thinking Burnely could get a draw from this game. The visitors put in some good performances in the last two games. Almost getting a draw at home v Chelsea and then taking 3 important points against relegation candidates West Ham. But both those games were at home. And there is a big difference between Burnley at home and away, plus West Ham created enough chances to get something get atleast a draw from that match.
Fulham looking better after hitting a tough patch with a lot injuries (still) and difficulty to score. They did enough to win against Portsmouth last week and got a somewhat lucky draw away to Bolton.
Tonight Zamora will be up front with Okaka looking to get to start again infront of the homefans.Kagisho Dikgacoi is the latest injury in the home team and will be replaced by Dickson Etuhu. I think the manager change at Burnely might not be such a bad thing afterall, and I expect them to put up a real fight tonight but with Fulham getting some momentum and playing infront of the home fans and Burnelys less then convincing away form the home team should do enough to get another precious 3 points in a week.

Fulham @1.83

[Caveman]

When ppl say Pompey is in must win situation, I think we can say that every week until end of season, IMO this can't be a serious reason to bet on them. They need a miracle to avoid relegation. On the other hand Sunderland's poor current form scares ppl away to trust them, but perhaps Pompey is exactly the right opponent to boost their morale with an away win...I don't know, I really don't care about Pompey's dramatic situation. Betting on 1X2 market is jeopardy for me, but I could imagine we'll see a really open offensive match with 2 teams unable to defend but at least guests with some decent scoring quality. Really can't understand such high odds for over 2,5 goals @ 2,27 (10bet or 188bet). Pompey has to deliver in front of home crowd, perhaps last chance to close gap to other relegation candidates, Sunderland wants to finish negative streak, clear indication for a goal feast for me. just my 2 cents...

[discodave]

Originally Posted by Jase82

West Ham have two wins in their last six home fixtures. Birmingham have only lost to Chelsea away from home since October.

This fixture will have an added twist to it with former Birmingham City owners, David Gold and David Sullivan, now in charge at West Ham.

west ham have just asked their players to take a pay cut, and the obvious rumours surrounding zola cant see this inspiring the players to battle it out with birmingham.

so as long as birmingham are not going to rest any players i think they should beat my unhappy hammers at the boleyn.

[J-unit]

Originally Posted by Caveman

When ppl say Pompey is in must win situation, I think we can say that every week until end of season, IMO this can't be a serious reason to bet on them. They need a miracle to avoid relegation. On the other hand Sunderland's poor current form scares ppl away to trust them, but perhaps Pompey is exactly the right opponent to boost their morale with an away win...I don't know, I really don't care about Pompey's dramatic situation. Betting on 1X2 market is jeopardy for me, but I could imagine we'll see a really open offensive match with 2 teams unable to defend but at least guests with some decent scoring quality. Really can't understand such high odds for over 2,5 goals @ 2,27 (10bet or 188bet). Pompey has to deliver in front of home crowd, perhaps last chance to close gap to other relegation candidates, Sunderland wants to finish negative streak, clear indication for a goal feast for me. just my 2 cents...

I agree with you and the over. My argument is not that Pompey is in a must win situation (they are). But I dont think even they are thinking of staying up , in their heart of hearts they know they are already down. There chances are not realistic therefore they will play without pressure imo. And there game looks relatively strong. But Sunderland have the pressure with no confidence and therefore I think they will have too much fear of losing this one. its one way to see this and its the way I look at it. I understand your point of view fully, but I think you missunderstood my motivation...I think only a manager change can save Sunderland if even that (or a beachball).

[Bearr]

Fulham v Burnley - 1.80 / betfair
No mistery for anybody this selection but really fancy it . Even if Burnley have changed the coach you cant be on their side with that disater of a record on away ground that they have . Just one draw in twelve games the rest being looses and a goal difference of minus 27 is worth opposing ! Fulham have some injuries recently but they will have Zamora back in the team and he will give more option for them infrount of goal . They usually dont get stuck in this kind of games , showing this ability with Portsmouth also in the last home game , and im happy to be on their side today at this reasonable odds .