England » Barclays Premier League » Feb 9/10

[Charles Drawin]

Originally Posted by gotstoned

I believe Agbonlahor's header was responsible for the goal.

Well of course he scored the goal but the mistake that led up to it was Fletcher's error. Fletcher isn't a natural right back, he was just filling in because of the defensive crisis at the time.

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by gotstoned

Villa beat ManU playing away, do you think ManU playing away have an advantage or something?

Ok. Two very different styles of play. Home and away form means two sides, especially in a top league, will approach the game differently. It doesn't necessarily mean United or Aston Villa are going to lose, but given the head to heads, I think anything around two is excellent for the away side. United are naturally expected to attack at every opportunity when at Old Trafford, and Villa as a counter attacking side, can and did take full advantage of that.

It's already been mentioned that United had Fletcher at right full back in the game at Old Trafford? I think it would be a brave man that bets against Manchester United right now.

Also, they've already lost four away fixtures this season, which is one more than last. The law of averages tell me that it is unlikely United will lose any more away fixtures this season. Similar reasons can be applied as weight to why Liverpool are unlikely to lose any more fixtures this season.

[gotstoned]

Originally Posted by Charles Drawin

Well of course he scored the goal but the mistake that led up to it was Fletcher's error. Fletcher isn't a natural right back, he was just filling in because of the defensive crisis at the time.

of course give no credit to the fact that someone scored against united at OT instead there was an error. The fact that Villa beat ManU was not a fluke if thats what you suggest here

tbh who do United have that can play RB capable of doing the job against Young? I think Rafael and Neville would have just as hard a time shutting down that right side, although Rafael has speed to keep up. Villa have real quality in wide players and I think United defense will stuggle. I am unsure whether Rio will play but United have played better defensively without him this year if you ask me.

[Charles Drawin]

Originally Posted by gotstoned

of course give no credit to the fact that someone scored against united at OT instead there was an error. The fact that Villa beat ManU was not a fluke if thats what you suggest here

tbh who do United have that can play RB capable of doing the job against Young? I think Rafael and Neville would have just as hard a time shutting down that right side, although Rafael has speed to keep up. Villa have real quality in wide players and I think United defense will stuggle. I am unsure whether Rio will play but United have played better defensively without him this year if you ask me.

It's got nothing to do with giving credit, I'm just saying what I saw with my own eyes, a player clearly out of position making a boob. I'm not saying it was a fluke just that they were a tad fortunate. You're making it sound like they hammered United, there was only 1 goal in it. Villa did play well but they rode their luck to some degree. I've given my reasons anyway, if you want to stick to your guns over this after all the info I and Jase82 have provided then so be it. You never know you might be proved right.

[RealGreen]

Please criticize my plays, I love feedback.

Man City - Bolton / City -1 (2.0)
-After losing their last fixture away they are now at home and need a win. Their next games are against stoke, liverpool and chelsea, so this is a good opprotunity to get some points. Cahill is away for Bolton too so this could be interesting. This should be a serious test of fire power if they want to challenge for 4th spot IMO.

Arsenal - Liverpool / over 2.5 (1.9)
-Both teams have very volatile defenses which is why I think the over has value. Arsenal conceded too many at home to United and away to Chelsea. And Liverpool even though they have had a good record recently, Kyrgiakos got red carded at the Everton match. Bottom line, 11 out of 12 matches have been over 2.5 and the odds are worth it IMO.

Everton - Chelsea / Under 2.5 (1.8)
-Tight game, but I think Chelsea have the difference makers. Plus Pienaar has been red carded. Everton will play for a draw keeping goals to min?

[Mustafa]

Originally Posted by Jenspm

But the double chance doesn't always have higher odds, so you have to look around a bit. Hell, -0.5 is sometimes priced better than a straight win.

Example from the game you just posted:
Everton or draw double chance: 2.1
Everton +0.5 AH: 2.21

I was just pointing out that double chance and + handicap are ALMOST the same thing with just minor coefficient difference.

[Charles Drawin]

Originally Posted by gotstoned

of course give no credit to the fact that someone scored against united at OT instead there was an error. The fact that Villa beat ManU was not a fluke if thats what you suggest here

tbh who do United have that can play RB capable of doing the job against Young? I think Rafael and Neville would have just as hard a time shutting down that right side, although Rafael has speed to keep up. Villa have real quality in wide players and I think United defense will stuggle. I am unsure whether Rio will play but United have played better defensively without him this year if you ask me.

Regarding Rio, he made 24 starts last season and United conceded a total of 24 goals all season. This season he has made 6 starts and they have already conceded 20 with still a third of the season remaining. The stats don't suggest they have played better.

[gotstoned]

Originally Posted by Charles Drawin

It's got nothing to do with giving credit, I'm just saying what I saw with my own eyes, a player clearly out of position making a boob. I'm not saying it was a fluke just that they were a tad fortunate. You're making it sound like they hammered United, there was only 1 goal in it. Villa did play well but they rode their luck to some degree. I've given my reasons anyway, if you want to stick to your guns over this after all the info I and Jase82 have provided then so be it. You never know you might be proved right.

hmmm

I dont think you even bothered to read my first post, or try to understand why im betting on this. I like the odds You wont find many teams who have the ability to beat (and have done so) a top 4 side with odds of 4.0+ at home.

And yes I believe it has got a lot to do with giving credit. If you fail to give credit where it is due you may end up thinking like yourself: the result was all about luck Even L'pool fans did not comment on luck as much when they had a run in with a beachball

Thanks for the info..... Fletcher played RB and he made a mistake that led to Agbonlahor's lucky single match winning goal. Villa had the advantage playing at Old Trafford since it fits their teams style. Home and Away matches are different scenarios. Dont worry about giving credit to those who are playing well and doing the job, it has nothing to do with your decision on the outcome of the game. Due to the law of averages ManU and L'pool should not loose anymore out of the 13 games left because they have already lost 5 and 7 respectively..... but ill stick to me guns



btw, how can I be proved wrong? all ive done is made teh statement Aston Villa can possibly beat ManU, which actually is a FACT. Even if I lose my bet it means nothing considering I jumped on it cause I like the odds so dont know what your getting at here

[valuepunter]

Going unders on the Fulham game, under 2.5 @ 4/6 and possibly under 1.5 @ 7/4

Fulham are very tough to play and score against at home as everyone knows and Burnley's got a poor away record going 0-1-11 this season and only scoring 8 goals. The 4th worst away goal record in the prem right now. I'm not expecting Burnley to score here on Fulham's turf

I also like the look of Fulham Clean Sheet @ 11/10 and/or Fulham win to nil @ 17/10
Still not fully decided but my bets will be some combination of the above, based on the fact I think it'll be a tight game with little in the way of quality goal chances, but when they come they should be coming from Fulham

If fulham win I think it will be to nil, really don't see Burnley putting in a performance here, so 17/10 seems a pretty good price, considering Fulham have scored in 14 of their last 18 home games (all comps)

[gotstoned]

Originally Posted by Charles Drawin

Regarding Rio, he made 24 starts last season and United conceded a total of 24 goals all season. This season he has made 6 starts and they have already conceded 20 with still a third of the season remaining. The stats don't suggest they have played better.

Rio had played 6 games, of which only against Hull they kept a clean sheet. So tell me how are United NOT playing better without him? Wes Brown has made Rio look bad so far this season if your talking stat-wise

[valuepunter]

Originally Posted by Jase82

Also, they've already lost four away fixtures this season, which is one more than last. The law of averages tell me that it is unlikely United will lose any more away fixtures this season. Similar reasons can be applied as weight to why Liverpool are unlikely to lose any more fixtures this season.

Bold statement. I somewhat agree with the logic but it's important to remember that historical data and trends are ways for us to help discern the most likely outcome, but the outcomes work completely independently to the data. The probability of variance doesn't change.

What I'm saying is if, hypothetically, Chelsea lost 4 away game last season, but this season they lost their first 4 away games, that doesn't mean Chelsea are now more likely to go unbeaten away for the rest of the season, at least to any significant degree (unless the 4 teams they lost to were the same 4 as the previous year).

Just thought I'd throw that out there. Especially when they have Arsenal on wednesday
edit - really hope that didn't come across as patronizing, didn't mean to be, just didn't want anybody seeing a God punter saying Liverpool are unlikely to lose for the rest of the season and going nuts

[Charles Drawin]

Originally Posted by gotstoned

hmmm

I dont think you even bothered to read my first post, or try to understand why im betting on this. I like the odds You wont find many teams who have the ability to beat (and have done so) a top 4 side with odds of 4.0+ at home.

And yes I believe it has got a lot to do with giving credit. If you fail to give credit where it is due you may end up thinking like yourself: the result was all about luck Even L'pool fans did not comment on luck as much when they had a run in with a beachball

Thanks for the info..... Fletcher played RB and he made a mistake that led to Agbonlahor's lucky single match winning goal. Villa had the advantage playing at Old Trafford since it fits their teams style. Home and Away matches are different scenarios. Dont worry about giving credit to those who are playing well and doing the job, it has nothing to do with your decision on the outcome of the game. Due to the law of averages ManU and L'pool should not loose anymore out of the 13 games left because they have already lost 5 and 7 respectively..... but ill stick to me guns



btw, how can I be proved wrong? all ive done is made teh statement Aston Villa can possibly beat ManU, which actually is a FACT. Even if I lose my bet it means nothing considering I jumped on it cause I like the odds so dont know what your getting at here

I never said you could be proved wrong. I said you might be proved right if your selection is the correct call. If Villa win at 4 your value call might be perceived by some as being proof that you were right. Your selection isn't totally based on mathematical probability you do think Villa have a decent chance of winning that's what I'm getting at.

[Charles Drawin]

Originally Posted by gotstoned

Rio had played 6 games, of which only against Hull they kept a clean sheet. So tell me how are United NOT playing better without him? Wes Brown has made Rio look bad so far this season if your talking stat-wise

Rio clearly hasn't played enough games this season for you to make such sweeping statements. In my view your criticism of him is harsh. He hasn't been truly fit all season and that's pretty obvious. Any side in the world would want a fit Rio Ferdinand in it.

[Mustafa]

Originally Posted by Woodie

I like the look of a Man city/Fulham double. Both teams fairly strong at home and both playing weaker teams. Def worth a bet.

Originally Posted by bookies worst enemy

I Fancy both Portsmouth v Sunderland and Wigan V Stoke games to go
under 2.5 goals This scenario has featured frequently with these teams.

I actually fancy both your choises and might even consider includong all of them in an Accumulator (4) @ 6.09

[gotstoned]

Originally Posted by Charles Drawin

Rio clearly hasn't played enough games this season for you to make such sweeping statements. In my view your criticism of him is harsh. He hasn't been truly fit all season and that's pretty obvious. Any side in the world would want a fit Rio Ferdinand in it.

lol thats your own biased opinion that any club in the world would want him, sorry. Especially if that player is not fit for the entire season, he is worth squat. Smalling has been brought in to do a job

I clearly stated Rio has only played 6 games but 7 goals were scored in those games. Im sure being a United fan you watched him and can admit he was less than formidable, although United does not have a rock solid defense this year as whole. My statement is not harsh at all, it is the bold and simple truth.

and clearly if your making these excuses about him then my statement was correct, United are better without him playing. Right?

[Bar Grill]

Originally Posted by Jase82

Not to comment on everything I see, but......

Why do you consider 3.2 for a side that have won once away from home all season to be big? Also, we've beaten Liverpool at home this season and already beaten Sunderland at home recently. The only games we have lost against bottom ten sides were against Bolton and Fulham. (are they bottom ten? maybe thise season....) That was way back in August/September when our squad was new.

Sunderland should be over 4.

I think everyone knows the situation with Portsmouth but to many are overreacting to Sunderlands recent bad form. Based on where I would expect the teams to be in the league table at the end of the season I would expect this price to be a shade under 3.0. There is enough quality in the team to get them out this current slump.

Might have to agree to disagree on this one!

[thebambers]

I do like the look of the Man City -1AH particularly now Gary Cahill who has been immense for Bolton will not be playing. City need to win this game to get back on track if they wish to get the fourth champions league place. I can see it being all out attack and if they get an early goal Bolton will suffer. With Bellamy's pace and Tevez likely to close Bolton down at every opportunity I can see a winning margin of at least 2 goals. Great value at around evens and money back if they win by just one goal

Good luck

[Magenta]

Originally Posted by thebambers

I do like the look of the Man City -1AH particularly now Gary Cahill who has been immense for Bolton will not be playing. City need to win this game to get back on track if they wish to get the fourth champions league place. I can see it being all out attack and if they get an early goal Bolton will suffer. With Bellamy's pace and Tevez likely to close Bolton down at every opportunity I can see a winning margin of at least 2 goals. Great value at around evens and money back if they win by just one goal

Good luck

Your right mate it would be great value at around evens..unfortunately its not! 1.73 is currently the best you can get..

[Marcus1874]

I'm by no means an expert on handicaps etc...But if I've understood what thebambers described, then Willhills is offering it at 2.10...

Man City v Bolton - Match Handicaps
Man City -1 goal @ 2.10

On the site it says that if City win by 1 goal, the bet is void...but that is under Asian Handicap, and I'm not sure if that's what this bet is.

[Spooner]

If City win 1-0, the handicap result would be a 'tie' therefore you lose, they must win by two or more or you lose.