England » Barclays Premier League » Feb 9/10

[Jenspm]

Originally Posted by Mustafa

I really don't see the point of +1 handicaps when you can pick a double chance and since both are almost the same value. So, I prefer Everton or Draw @ 2.10, than Everton +1 @ 2.00.

But the double chance doesn't always have higher odds, so you have to look around a bit. Hell, -0.5 is sometimes priced better than a straight win.

Example from the game you just posted:
Everton or draw double chance: 2.1
Everton +0.5 AH: 2.21

[ronny]

Wolves v Spurs at 10/11.
Wolves go into this game without a win in their last 6 league games as well as bowing out of the cup to Palace.Despite not setting the world alight,slipping up in 4 or 5 games they should be winning,I do feel Spurs are a much improved side this season and can be more trusted to win these away games than previous seasons.Spurs have beaten Portsmouth,Hull,Wham and Blackburn on their travels so far so if they get on the front foot early at Wolves,they really should be too strong for them.Molinieux has hardly been a fortress for them as they've been beaten comfortably by City and Arsenal as well as losing at home to Pompey,Wham and Birmingham.All things considered,I agree with Spirit67 and feel as though Tottenham will have too much firepower for Wolves and take the 3 points.

[Jenspm]

Fulham - Burnley
Burnley will definitely have gotten a boost of confidence after the week-end's 2-1 win over West Ham, the first under the leadership of Law. However, their away form is terrible. Pathetic. They have a single point away this season, and haven't scored a single goal in their last five away games. Say what you want about Fulham's form, but they are solid at home. 4 clean sheets in the last 5 says a lot, that one game was against Aston Villa. They are in a period with tons of injuries, and I suspect Roy Hodgson will rely on defensive organisation to ride off the storm. I fancy them a win, but their lack of goals scares me away from that bet. If Fulham fail to score, I suspect Burnley will be very happy with a point, and won't press to score.

Away Team To Score: No @ 2.15 - 5pts expekt

[sajtion]

tottenham have been dissapointing lately. a team with a lot of attacking potential have failed to impress me in last few games. they lack creativity and effectiveness in front of goal. i fear that some of the players are in poor form. wolverhampton outplayed birmingham on sunday and were unlucky to conceed two late goals. i think they will put that right and win here 2-0

[gotstoned]

Aston Villa - ManU - Villa 4.3

This is a close match up and Villa will have to play superb to slow down ManU and their race to become champions. Rooney is on fire this season and even more so in the past few games. ManU as a whole has been on a good run of games with a 3-1 win over Arsenal and a 5-0 win against Portsmouth granted there were 3 own goals ManU were on full attack.

I just cannot pass up these odds considering Villa beat ManU at old Trafford earlier this year so if they can beat them away surely they can put up a decent fight at home. These two teams meet in the finals of the Carling up as well, so this will be somewhat of a preview to what lies ahead.

Agbonlahor first goal 8/1
Rooney anytime goal 11/8
Milner first goal 14/1
Young first goal 14/1

[Bar Grill]

Sunderland to bt Portsmouth - 1pt @3.2 Victor Chandler
I think the price on Sunderland is quite big due to their recent bad form but this is the perfect place for them to get their season back on track. Portsmouth are a very bad side. There is plenty of quality in the Sunderland side to put Portsmouth to the sword. Darren Bent always has goals in him. Sunderland are more than capable of finishing midtable and 3.2 is a good price. Portsmouth are a championship side all but in name.

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by Jenspm

honestly, I like Liverpool +0.5 @ evens

Liverpool have strung up a few wins recently, and they gained control of that 4th spot quicker than I'd have thought. They held yet another clean sheet Saturday, and that brings them up to 4 in a row, 6 in the last 7 league games - impressive. This includes matches against high-scoring Tottenham, Aston Villa, and with 10 men for over an hour vs. Everton. These results have for the main part come at home, however, but Arsenal's form isn't good at all. Earning one point in the last 4 games, if we include the 3-1 loss to Stoke in the cup. Liverpool should come in with a boost of confidence after than derby win, while Arsenal have been beaten by 2 goals 3 times in their last 4 games.

A win for Liverpool would bring them within 2 points of Arsenal in 3rd place, while Arsenal may well consider this a "must win" if they want to keep up with Chelsea and Man U up top.

Furthermore, these games, head to head, have been tight affairs in recent years, with five (!) draws in the last 8 games between the two, four of them ending 1-1. Two last games have ended 2-1 Arsenal. Last 8 head to head:

13th Dec 09 L Liverpool v Arsenal 1 - 2
28th Oct 09 C Arsenal v Liverpool 2 - 1
21st Apr 09 L Liverpool v Arsenal 4 - 4
21st Dec 08 L Arsenal v Liverpool 1 - 1
8th Apr 08 C Liverpool v Arsenal 4 - 2
5th Apr 08 L Arsenal v Liverpool 1 - 1
2nd Apr 08 C Arsenal v Liverpool 1 - 1
28th Oct 07 L Liverpool v Arsenal 1 - 1

Hardly a blowout to any party. I can see a match where Arsenal have most of the possession, while Liverpool work their asses off and get a goal on the counter-attack.

Other interesting bets: 1-1 @ 7


thoughts?

I think the odds on Arsenal represent better value in my opinion. Liverpool are the only top four side that Arsenal ever look like beating. Liverpool have been really grinding out the results recently, which is the main difference at the minute, (again, in my opnion) between them and their rivals. I've watched Liverpool a lot recently and they look like they have had to up their work rate a lot to compensate for their injuries.

Will Kyrgiakos play? He has been a rock in their last few games, so if his suspension is immediate, that will be a big miss.

I also could not bring myself to back Liverpool without Torres. Unless I find value in their odds, like I did at the weekend, and against Stoke.

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by gotstoned

I just cannot pass up these odds considering Villa beat ManU at old Trafford earlier this year so if they can beat them away surely they can put up a decent fight at home. These two teams meet in the finals of the Carling up as well, so this will be somewhat of a preview to what lies ahead.

Totally different scenario. United were at home and susceptible to Villas counter atacking style. At Villa Park it will be a different contest, and I expect Aston Villa to attack more. If the odds continue to rise on United, I will be backing them.

[Woodie]

I like the look of a Man city/Fulham double. Both teams fairly strong at home and both playing weaker teams. Def worth a bet.

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by Bar Grill

Sunderland to bt Portsmouth - 1pt @3.2 Victor Chandler
I think the price on Sunderland is quite big due to their recent bad form but this is the perfect place for them to get their season back on track. Portsmouth are a very bad side. There is plenty of quality in the Sunderland side to put Portsmouth to the sword. Darren Bent always has goals in him. Sunderland are more than capable of finishing midtable and 3.2 is a good price. Portsmouth are a championship side all but in name.

Not to comment on everything I see, but......

Why do you consider 3.2 for a side that have won once away from home all season to be big? Also, we've beaten Liverpool at home this season and already beaten Sunderland at home recently. The only games we have lost against bottom ten sides were against Bolton and Fulham. (are they bottom ten? maybe thise season....) That was way back in August/September when our squad was new.

Sunderland should be over 4.

[Denman]

9th February picks

Portsmouth v Sunderland

Both teams haven't been in the greatest of form. Chelsea smashed seven past Sunderland, and Man Utd put five past Portsmouth. This game will of course be a lot different, Pompey are rock bottom and problems off the pitch seem to get worse by the day despite that they haven't actually been playing that badly. They had chances against both City and Fulham but failed to convert any. That's Pompey's main problem they've no profilic goalscorers in their team so it's hard to see where the goals are coming from. Sunderland in contrast have a very good strike partnership in Bent and Jones, I'm sure many Premiership teams would love to have thoose two in their team. But Sunderland's form as dipped significently over the last few months after a great start. There has been a tension around the Stadium of Light over the past few games as their supporters are starting to think their team could slip into relegation trouble. Therefore I think it may suit Sunderland playing away from home with a little less tension and pressure than if it was a home game. Can see them getting a draw at least hence why I've gone for the +0.25 on the asian handicap, although i was very tempted by 3.20 on offer for a Sunderland win. Considering the quality in the Sunderland side that's a big price in my opinion.
Sunderland (+0.25) @ 1.88


Wigan v Stoke City

Wigan have been very unpredictable this season, whilst Stoke have been fantastic at home but have struggled away. Stoke have failed to score in thier last five away games whilst Wigan aren't generally proflic scorers. Think this is all set for a low scoring game. If it does go over 2.5 goals however I think Wigan will win and it will work out at a profit on the game, ideally it will end 1-0 or 2-0 win for Wigan of course.
Home Win @ 2.25
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67


Man City v Bolton

Both teams have the tendancy to be involved in high-scoring games and think we could be in for another one here. Bolton have been dealt a big blow by the loss of their key player and defender Cahill, which should leave Man City the opportunity to exploit the already leaky Bolton defense. Fancy City to win by more than the one goal here and also happy to take the overs on offer.
Man City (-1) @ 1.68
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.79


Fulham v Burnley

Burnley got a very important win against West Ham last time despite not playing to their best. At home Burnley are a match for anyone but away from home it is a totally different picture. They've lost 10 out of their 11 away matches, which says it all really. Zamora and Davies both return from injury for Fulkham which should give them a boost. Fulham's home form is very good this season despite a bit of a setback with the defeat against Villa, they are still very good at Craven Cottage and know how to grind out results. Therefore I expect Fulham to come out on top here and will take the home win.
Home Win @ 1.76

[gotstoned]

Originally Posted by Jase82

Totally different scenario. United were at home and susceptible to Villas counter atacking style. At Villa Park it will be a different contest, and I expect Aston Villa to attack more. If the odds continue to rise on United, I will be backing them.

Different scenario? What does the difference in scenarios have to do with the fact that villa have shown they have the ability to beat ManU? Not sure why you are trying to take anything away from the fact they won

My point is IMO villa at 4.3 are good odds for a team with the quality they possess playing at home, when they have already beat the opposition on their home field. I dont think you can consider these odds bad

[bookies worst enemy]

I Fancy both Portsmouth v Sunderland and Wigan V Stoke games to go
under 2.5 goals This scenario has featured frequently with these teams.

[bookies worst enemy]

Originally Posted by Woodie

I like the look of a Man city/Fulham double. Both teams fairly strong at home and both playing weaker teams. Def worth a bet.

Yeah seem to be the only two i fancy aswel, i might take doubles cos City are short price

[Charles Drawin]

Originally Posted by gotstoned

Different scenario? What does the difference in scenarios have to do with the fact that villa have shown they have the ability to beat ManU? Not sure why you are trying to take anything away from the fact they won

My point is IMO villa at 4.3 are good odds for a team with the quality they possess playing at home, when they have already beat the opposition on their home field. I dont think you can consider these odds bad

United were forced to play Fletcher at right back in the reverse fixture who was responsible for the goal if memory serves me right. This is a totally different scenario because United go into it a lot more settled than they were back then. Fletcher will be where he should be and Van der Sar is back between the sticks. Don't get me wrong it shouldn't be an easy fixture for United but I wouldn't get too carried away by Villa's odds given that they have only managed to beat United just once in the last 25 meetings. That is simply an astounding statistic given the size of Villa as a club.

[gotstoned]

Originally Posted by bookies worst enemy

I Fancy both Portsmouth v Sunderland and Wigan V Stoke games to go
under 2.5 goals This scenario has featured frequently with these teams.

probrably a good shout

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by gotstoned

Different scenario? What does the difference in scenarios have to do with the fact that villa have shown they have the ability to beat ManU? Not sure why you are trying to take anything away from the fact they won

My point is IMO villa at 4.3 are good odds for a team with the quality they possess playing at home, when they have already beat the opposition on their home field. I dont think you can consider these odds bad

Home, away?

[discodave]

portsmouth v sunderland

up the pompey for this one

sunderland have just fought two relegation battling teams at home and couldnt beat them, they went to pompey in the fa cup and got beat, there only win in about 9 games was against barrow

sunderland will be a lot more tired than the pompey team who rested 5 players against united
avram grant is no mug as a manager and he knows this game is going to be far more winnable for them with a fresh squad

i can see sunderland getting their arses handed to them tbh

i could be wrong but why would most of you be talking about sunderland when they have not won and with no real change to there play surely if they are a mid table side they should of beaten at least one of these last 2 opponents

also some of you have all said about the upturn in portsmouths play surely this is quite a sexy price for a one off game when we all know that the this pompey side have already beaten the away side a few weeks ago

this is a definite home banker in my eyes coupled with great value @ 6/4

[gotstoned]

Originally Posted by Jase82

Home, away?

Villa beat ManU playing away, do you think ManU playing away have an advantage or something?

[gotstoned]

Originally Posted by Charles Drawin

United were forced to play Fletcher at right back in the reverse fixture who was responsible for the goal if memory serves me right. This is a totally different scenario because United go into it a lot more settled than they were back then. Fletcher will be where he should be and Van der Sar is back between the sticks. Don't get me wrong it shouldn't be an easy fixture for United but I wouldn't get too carried away by Villa's odds given that they have only managed to beat United just once in the last 25 meetings. That is simply an astounding statistic given the size of Villa as a club.

I believe Agbonlahor's header was responsible for the goal.