Coca Cola Championship - Midweek Games (9th -11th)

[GETT1NLOTS]

9 Aug-19:45 Watford v QPR 2.37 3.20 2.90
10 Aug-19:45 Brighton v Plymouth 2.25 3.40 2.75
10 Aug-19:45 Cardiff v Coventry 2.20 3.20 3.00
10 Aug-19:45 Gillingham v Leeds 2.75 3.40 2.25
10 Aug-19:45 Millwall v Wigan 2.20 3.40 2.87
10 Aug-19:45 Rotherham v Burnley 2.10 3.50 3.00
10 Aug-19:45 Sheff Utd v Stoke 1.80 3.20 4.33
10 Aug-20:00 Sunderland v Crewe 1.53 3.60 6.00
10 Aug-20:00 West Ham v Reading 1.72 3.40 4.50
11 Aug-19:45 Derby v Leicester 2.60 3.20 2.50
11 Aug-19:45 Nottm Forest v Ipswich 2.25 3.40 2.62
11 Aug-19:45 Wolverhampton v Preston 1.57 3.60 5.50

Odds supplied by Bet 365

after 3 seasons away in the wilderness (div2). the R's are back. For those who do not know my posts, I am a season ticket holder at QPR & try to give YOU an insight into my clubs chances for each game. Something that I hope that other fans of CCC* sides can do this season.

*by the way, i made this up CCC can stand for coca cola championship as that takes so long to type!

Onto Monday's game, I was encouraged by Saturday's performance as the team was actually weaker than what we finished with last season.

My take on the team:
Chris Day - Best goalie in Div 2 in my opinion. Now needs to prove himself after loan keeper Camp kept him out of promotion run in last season. Formerly with Watford/Spurs.
Marcus Bignot - Not a fan yet. A so-so player. You either love them or hate them. Has been around Div2/3 teams during career. in 2nd spell with the R's.
Gino Padula - Argentine. Excellent tackler & great crosser. Positional play sometimes lets him down.
Mathew rose - Finished last season in great form. tendency to make mistakes. Not the best in the air in my opinion vs lanky strikers. Been with the club for 6 years now though.
Arthur Gnothere - Signed from Burnely last season. Likewise with Rose comments above. Much stronger physically though.
Mark Bircham - A must for the team. Canadian international committed to his beloved R's. Injured at the mo but hopefully back soon. The engine of the team.
Richard Johnson - Similar to Bircham. Maybe too similar ? Signed from Watford last season. Does not score!!
Marcus Bean - Only 18 but had a great early season followed by poor final 3 months. Will improve with more games.
Martin Rowlands - this is his stage! Watch him go. Unfortunately to another team if he keeps playing the way he does.
Gareth Ainsworth - The wild thing. Not sure what he'll do next. Reminds me of the great bowlesy but obviously not a s good. Can score a few though.
Lee Cook - signed from Watford - exciting winger. Can't wait for his debut.
Kevin Gallen - Top class in Div 2. Only 5 yr ago, Fergie made £6m for him, but R's turned it down :rolleyes Had the injuries, was better than Fowler at youth level & now back on Div 1 stage.
Paul Furlong - 34 too old I'm afraid. Will score though.
Tony Thorpe - I like him. Record of 1 goal every 2 games for us. On subs bench most of the time though.
Jamie Cureton - Subs bench as well. Can score goals.
Kevin Mcleod - lazy scouser!

Monday sees us vs watford. A difficult one to assess although our fitness looked very good on Sat, we struggled to carve out more than 4 good clear cut chances & looked sloppy at free kicks. Ollie must learn to change the team earlier - 3 subs after 82 mins is no good in 100 degree heat. I can see this being tight again & a draw would be a fair reflection. We only lost 7 last seaon in 46 & this team are used to fighting to the death for that point.
Up & down record at watford, if cook plays then he may make the difference. It's on TV so hopefully a few of you will watch & be able to give your opinions.

Verdict - Draw 5pts
CS - 1-1 or 0-0 1pt each
1st goal - Furlong 3pts

10pts staked (decided to include a betting strategy of 10 pts per game)

out of the other games,

Leicster look a fair price at 2.50 to take the points at Derby. I can see Derby struggling again & with the firepower that Leicester have, I can them taking this by 2 or 3 goals. They looked to have the better opportunities vs West Ham on Sat & only a great peformance by Bywater kept them at bay with 10 men for most of the game.

Coventry at 3.00 to beat Cardiff is probably the early season "steal". Reidy has some great players at the club & I really expect them to do well this season. Cardiff are a bottom 10 side no doubt (also in financial probs so may struglle this season!).

I'll be looking at a double here.

Bowles, you are cleary taking your play-off bitterness too far. Cov is admittedly a great price but to dismiss Cardiff as 'a bottom 10 side no doubt' is ludicrous. Please don't just look at your double.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Madog - I don't see what is so ludicrous about suggesting Cardiff are a bottom ten side? I think Cardiff will stay up as their home form is decent and the away fixture there is always a bit intimidating.

However the CCC (like it Bowles) is a strong division this year and I too think that Cardiff will be bottom half as a result.

Bowles said "Cardiff are a bottom ten side NO DOUBT".
If Bowles were a Cardiff regular like myself then he might have some insight into what kind of season Cardiff are going to have, but he is not, he supports a team that has been playing in a different, lower division for the last 3 seasons.
Cardiff were not even a bottom ten side last season and played some sublime football at times (destroying Forest at the City Ground). Cardiff are not in financial probs although funds may not be available until the new stadium get the full green light.

So can you not see what I find ludicrous in that statement.

Why not have a look on oddschecker and see how many bookies agree with Bowles ??

[dave]

Cardiff were not even a bottom ten side last season and played some sublime football at times (destroying Forest at the City Ground).

I'm assuming (tell me if I'm wrong) that that was before Joe Kinnear took over Forest, in which case destroying Forest wasn't difficult last season. In fact, I've just looked and it was 2-1 according to football365

Anyway, all I know about Cardiff is that I woudln't want to be there when they play Millwall.

This is what footie is all about, defending your team no matter what ! Its probably a good way to the poorhouse too ! My motto would be never bet on a team you support, double pain ain't worth it. For tonight I'm going for Paddy Power's 6/5 QPR (draw no bet.) Watford have let me down in the past and lost last Saturday, so I'll go with the R's to keep up their unbeaten run in the CCC !
Bowles, I'm an Irishman who remembers when your hero used to play against Leeds. I didn't think that things would be like this when they met again ! I didn't recognise 75% of Leeds last Saturday, though that bloke Brian Deane looked familiar !
Stan's not making a comeback too, no ?

Ok Jacool, thats an opinion shared by many but not me and although I won't be betting on Cardiff-Cov, I do bet on Cardiff matches win lose and draw. Why on earth should I waste all that priceless information I have about them.
And surely and another good piece of advice would be don't let you personal prejudicies *against* a team cloud your judgement, which is where I entered this debate.

Madog & others, this is what Football & this forum is all about - OPINIONS!!

I think Cardiff who finished 13th last season, will finish 15th or below - i do not call that a ludicrous statement. It is not out of bitterness from the play offs as all QPR fans belive Cardiff done us a favour as this year we are a stronger team & better off financially to cope with CCC.

I also believe that Cardiff have 1 saleable asset to the EPL in Earnshaw & he will go for £5m which Cardiff will need to survive. Thye cannot go on getting 15000 gates & paying the likes of Kavanagh/Lee etc. They havent even paid us for langley yet & that was only a couple of hundred grand.

Thye only brought in 2 players in the close season - Warner in goal from Millwall & also Page - a defender from Sheff utd. If they lose earnshaw & his 20+ goals a season, I think they will struggle.

In tipping Coventry, that's why I made the statement about Cardiff. madog reminded me that QPR have been in a lower division for the last 3 years (one that Cardiff only got out of last year) However, before that we did have the experience of 33 years in the top 2 divs most of which I saw from Boy to man! Cardiff from what i know, spent most of that 33 years in the lower 2 divisions. That was then, this is now!!

We can judge my statement at the end of the season but I am sure that most of you have similar opinions about other clubs.

Cheers for listening. I will stick by my double for this week as Cardiffs record of 7 defeats at home last season does prove that teams are not necessarily intimidated as Get1nlots added.

[Aykay1]

Keep it going lads, as a bit of a lower division novice i need all the help i can get from the likes of Bowles, Gett1n and Madog.

Ill post my final selections tomorrow but catching the eye at the moment are Reading 7/2 at West Ham and Stoke 100/30 at Sheff Utd.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Stoke look great value at 100/30 against a Sheff Utd side that stunk the place out at the end of last season. Drawing to a poor Burnley on the opening day (another stinky team at the back end of last season) does nothing to say the Blades will kick off this season in better form. I'm not saying Stoke will win but successful betting is all about spotting value, and to me, Stoke at 100/30 represent value.

(P.S - I am still sticking to my guns and keeping my money in my pocket for the first few weeks of the season).

I am with you their gettin. Very low stakes on first couple of weeks of new season.

I think stoke can get something from sheff utd and preston from an unimpressive looking but injury hit wolves team.

Forest who are also injury hit including missing 4 central defenders I reckon can get a second draw at home to ipswich, while the tame rams v foxes derby could well go the same way as another draw. The sheep were unlucky not to get anything out of the leeds game, while lester more than held their own playing a man down for arouind an hour.

[cero]

Agree on the low stakes, particularly with some of these tricky games. Wigan might be worth a look at a good price or on the asian line. They were pretty unlucky against Forest by most accounts, and they always should have goals in them. Stoke definately overpriced, but they've only had a day to recover - and although they should be fresh at this time of a season, the big physical power of their game might demand more recovery time.

Sunderland looked pretty toothless at the weekend, and this makes them too short too take imho. Crewe played in very inconsistent patches against Cardiff and we didn't have a great away record last season. But we do have some strong goalscorers, like Ashton, that Sunderland are trying to take off our hands >:

Over also looks nice for Forest-Ipswich. Both have defensive problems and decent attacking power. low stakes though

Many a time the bookies price teams up on reputation, sometimes they win, but their value is often limited, Stanley are a tad dismissive of Gillingham I feel with their 9/5 quote to beat Leeds.

As far as home games go this is probably match of the season for the Gills, it comes 1st up when their most keen to impress, against a Leeds side still getting to know one another. Gillingham lost plenty at home last year but can raise their game for the so called big fish as West Ham found out to their cost. Gills year was recked by injuries last time out but they start in better shape with the powerful Roberts, Sidebe and Agyemong hoping to outmuscle the Whites. Andy Hessenthaler took many positives from Saturday's defeat to Ipswich and will have his team chopping at the bit for this offering.

IMO Leeds were a tad lucky to beat Derby as I felt the Rams deserved a point. Who knows how their season will progress with so many new faces, my guess is that their may be a few lows before the highs. Either way this is an interesting clash, though I might have made Leeds very narrow favourites 9/5 is worth a speculative punt IMO to test the water.

Some difficult calls elsewhere in the Championship, Wolves though were awful IMO at Stoke so there could be worse bets than the generally available 9/2 Preston this Wednesday. Only cloud here is Ricardo Fuller flys to the States tomorrow to get his knee checked, therefore I'm presuming he's a likely non starter one to watch maybe. Sunderland too were limp at the weekend, probably too early to trust visitors Crewe but 5/1 could appeal to some.

Recommendation

Gillingham v Leeds 9/5 plus draw saver (Stanley)
1 Pt

Pts Ratio 0.25 - 5

FA

Bowles, let me address some of your points and maybe point out why I originally replied to your mail, because I am not on here to stir up bad feelings but simply to find out any extra info that's going to help me win money.
With the number of posts you have made on this forum I would imagine you are a well known and respected pundit on here but you have said Coventry is the bet because 'no doubt' (not imho) Cardiff are a bottom 10 club. They were not last year, the bookies don't think they will be this year, I am very confident they won't be either and you have not given any reasons why they should do worse than last season. I think that is bad advice so I'm just balancing it with some facts. I agreed that the Cov price is good, and this is the time (when the bookies are not too sure) to get some real bargains.

Now.

Many, many QPR fans express very bitter feeling towards Cardiff City. I read many internet forums for team info. The fire alarm thing is often given as the reason you didn't win the playoff. I have never seen the 'Cardiff done us a favour' sentiment expressed although I did delude myself with similar thoughts about Stoke the year before.

Earnshaw's going nowhere. We don't need to sell. Simple. (btw You know he's scored hatricks against 2 Ian holloway teams ?) We have a far more valuable player in Daniel Gabbidon too.

We also bought in 2 players at the end of last season in Paul Parry and Lee Bullock and are hoping to bring in Sean Gregan from WBA.

I pointed out that QPR were in the division now known as division 1 for the last 3 years because I believed *you* were maybe not as qualified to tell people that Cardiff were 'no doubt' a bottom 10 team in a division you did not watch as me. Not to get oneupmanships on our respective teams. Although I believe it's 1 FA Cup to nil.

You are spot on about Cardiff's home form. It's an intimidating atmosphere all right but only for the Cardiff team. When things ain't going right us fickle glory hunters do turn.

Damn that took a long time typing, then again I have had a few down the boozer watching a couple of bottom 10 teams. I think one might be a relegation candidate.

[Winrew]

I think one might be a relegation candidate

You bitch Madog.........

Don't you just hate the start of the season sometimes. With players coming and going soetimes it takes a while for teams to bed in.

For me alot of tight games tonight but I might just have Sunderland in an accy with a couple of lower league teams.

I don't think Crewe will be a pushover but after defeat at Coventry I think Sunderland will be going all out for the 3 points especially being at home.

[Rumlesen]

I am think of laying Millwall tonight. I can see they will miss Paul Ifill and Kevin Muscat, but cannot find other team news. Can anyone give me the squad for the game? or does anyone have something that can talk me out of it?

madog

thanks for the reply comments.

I was very disappointed with last night's performance which showed we are lacking in some areas. Beats me why the manager picks a different team for Aways when we have best home record in UK (yes all 8 divs!).

I hope we can review this at a later stage & you may prove me wrong, but please take this as not personal criticism towards Cardiff as I will make similar comments to justify why I think a certain team will beat another. If you check the Div 2 thread, i have said that Wycombe could win the league & tyson top scorer, well not a bad start but a long way to go.

Good luck tonight to all.

Roll on the next 44 games. Oh & that Nov day when we play the Cardiff boys.