UEFA Champions League » May 05/06

[blackcrow]

Arsenal - Man Utd over 2.5

[Jase82]

Originally Posted by Jase82

I wouldn't like to pick a winner at full time between Arsenal and Manchester United. Both sides are at near full strength. The only important absentees for Arsenal I can see, that have the ability to change the outcome of a game, are Arshavin and Gallas. Otherwise, they welcome back Van Persie and Adebayor after Saturdays 3-0 away win over Pompey.

Not a bad way to prepare for a crunch CL game?

Manchester United should have everyone fit and raring to go. Ferdinand will return to partner Vidic in defence, whilst Rooney is likely to partner Ronaldo up front; after the latter was rested for the 2-0 win away to Boro early on Saturday.

I think for this game we can ignore all previous CL records that both teams currently hold this season, or past, and treat this contest as a normal EPL encounter.

If we look back at the previous encounter this season between the two teams at the Emirates, we see that Arsenal won that game 2-1. I think that is an interesting result considering Arsenal were under strength that day. No Adebeyor, Toure or Van Persie. Arshavin was merely a blip on Wengers radar at that time. It can be argued that there is much more at stake this time around.

I like the calls for under 2.5, because Manchester United hold the ace by being 1 goal ahead in the tie. However, I don't believe that United will play for a draw or be content with just the 1 goal. They are in a very precarious position. They posess the players capable of scoring, don't need to, but are in no way in the same position as Chelsea were in the previous round. For that reason I couldn't bet on under 2.5 because the odds of 1.66 don't represent value based on the possibilities. If Arsenal score first, United will need to score. If Manchester score first, Arsenal will need to attack....unless we are expecting this contest to finish 0-0.

Initially I was looking at the game to be a draw at half time. You can get just over evens on the draw. I think because the scoreline reads 1-0 to United over the 2 legs, the game will be pretty much played at the same tempo as a normal EPL game, where no one really wants to lose the game.

For those reasons I now see the following as a fairly decent bet.....Most goals second half @ 2.10. All but 1 of the 4 games played at the Emirates since it was opened at the beginning of 2006/07 have resulted in more goals being scored in the 2nd half, and I see no reason as to why that should change now because as things get desperate both sides will likely be trying to get one over the other.

I also like the look of Arsenal (AH) DNB at Half Time @ 2.00. Manchester Uniteds recent history away to Arsenal doesn't make that great reading. They have had some decent results, but in the main, Manchester United have only won 3 times away at Arsenal in 18 attempts and at the Emirates there are no wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. After reading that information, I must favour Arsenal slightly to at least get something from this game. Even if it is a score draw. With this bet I am covering the draw at half time because my money will be returned if both sides are tied at HT.

Well, that was a poor game of football. Poor refereeing decisions and an individual mistake made by Gibbs cost Arsenal.

[Charlie Wong]

hahaha what a shit referee.

[ABhoyoFromScotland]

Originally Posted by ABhoyoFromScotland

Hi all,



Arsenal V Manchester United - OVER 2.5 Goals...@ 2.15 (Bet365)


Arsenal go into this match NEEDING to score at least one. This straight away suggests we will see a more attacking Arsenal tonight at the Emirates than the side that turned up to Old Trafford just under a week ago. With R Van Persie back in his side tonight Mr Wegner will be more confident of scoring a couple tonight than he was last week. In order for Arsenal to score they will need to play more offensivly this evening and that in turn will leave gaps and leaks in their team which Ronaldo and co have shown they can exploit. IF Arsenal score first we may see both teams tighten up a bit with both teams knowing that they are still in the tie, IF Man Utd score first then Arsenal will really have to have a go and score 3 to win the tie.....With Van Persie, Adebayor, Walcott, Nasri, Rooney, Berbatov, Tevez, Ronaldo all likely to feature tonight we cant help but imagine there will be goals. I understand most of these players were playing last week and there was only one goal, however tonights match is completely different, the difference is it HAS to be settled tonight so teams will not be holding back if they are heading out of the competition.

I think the bookies have this one wrong, and I for one am going to stick a few points on the OVER 2.5 goals.

GL all

Happy with that, United hammered them altohugh may have been a different game had they not scored two early goals, we will never know.

Feel so so sorry for Darren Fletcher, thought he was outstanding tonight, Uniteds best player behind Ronaldo, and to be sent off and miss the final for that outstanding challange is pure criminal.

[TQD]

Feel absolutely gutted for Fletcher.

Referee tonight was a shambles. Was giving such cheap free-kicks and bookings to both teams. Overall, as a United fan... glad they are through after a brilliant performance but that sending off has put a bit of a downer on the night.

Those decisions have no doubt cost those on the 'Under X Cards' market as well!

[catalinho07]

Messi didn't manage to do many things against a strong Chelsea defence, and now Henry is out so Barca will suffer a bit in attack. Gudjonhsen is expected to replace him, he knows british football well playing at Chelsea, but simply I see him as a class under the other players on the field.

Messi didn`t show his true skills, neither did Ronaldo in the game at Old Trafford, but he did some outstading things on Emirates stadium. I expect Messi to start using his skills and to show his true quality.

Big blow for Barca is that Puyol and Marquez can't play so Drogba will move easier on the field. I expect Barca to qualify after a 1-1 draw.

GL

[1875]

Originally Posted by Celticlad

Arsenal and Manchester United both teams to score @ 1.83 Ladbrokes

Manchester United have the advantage going into this game knowing that unless Arsenal score they are through. My reason for the selection is simple, Arsenal will come out the traps looking to score from the start and I feel that Man Utd always have a goal in them, Arsenal will score but Man Utd will also and it will be the team from Manchester that progress into the final.

Bet won thanks to the penalty that never should have been. Feel gutted for Fletcher, Its a stupid rule that he can't appeal either.

[steve1966]

Originally Posted by Celticlad

Bet won thanks to the penalty that never should have been. Feel gutted for Fletcher, Its a stupid rule that he can't appeal either.

I agree. Its crazy that he can't appeal against that. This stupid rule must be changed. Everyone makes mistakes and I'm sure when the ref see's that he'll know he was wrong. He should be in a position to recind it making Fletcher available. It any other sport I'm sure this would happen. It just goes to show that even in this day and age of modern technology our game is run by a bunch of dinosaurs

[KikoCy]

I'm going for Barcelona to win on -1 handicap @ 6.00 on bwin

Barca on the back of a 2-6 win in the El Clasico will be full of confidence and looking to punish Chelsea. Chelsea on the other hand will be forced to play more open; something which Barcelona can take advantage of with controlling possession and having more space and on the flipside, Barca are a great counter-attacking team, so for me no matter how they play I can see this as a goal-scoring event for them

Hope I'm right, at least United are in the final

Good luck!

[didi]

hmm, defence of barca AND chelsea are weaker now. I see barca score more than one time ... but they will have to conceed a goal from drogba.

Over 2.5, huge bet!

[AJ]

expect Barca to struggle on a tighter pitch.

Chelsea + 0.5 @ 1.48, max stakes

[ABhoyoFromScotland]

HI all,


Chealsea V Barcelona - Both teams to score @ 1.75 ( Bet365 )

We go into this game tonight with the tie finely balanced 0-0. In the first leg last Tuesday we seen a Chelsea side prepared to sit in and defend for their lives, tonight, while I expect Hiddinks men to still be very defensive, I feel they will show some more attacking tactics than they did in Spain (The home crowd will demand this). This IMO will leave more gaps for Barca's superstars to exploit, they were unlucky not to score last week in the Camp Nou however tonight I feel they will find the net. If Barca score first Chelsea need to score two, simply they have to come out and attack. If Chelsea score first then Barca need to score at least equally the amount that Chelsea score in order to progress, no matter how you look at it, if one team scores the other will HAVE to score to win the tie. Barca's defence will have to be re-shaped this evening with Puyol and Marquez both missing out, look to Drogba, Lampard, Malouda or even Alex or Terry to exploit this at set pieces etc. I really to feel that both Barca through their awsome attacking ability can score, and I really do feel Chelsea, through Barcas enforced defensive frailities can also score. I cannot predict who will go through but I honestly believe we'll see both teams scoring this eveing.


Good Luck all

[catalinho07]

---

Possible Line Up: Cech - Bosingwa, Terry, Alex, A Cole - Essien, Ballack, Lampard - Malouda, Anelka, Drogba

Possible Line Up: Valdes - Alves, Caceres, Pique, Abidal - Toure, Xavi, Iniesta - Henry, Messi, Eto'o

Now, I'm worried about Caceres who may feel the pressure playing in CHL Semis. He came from Huelva, 1.82m tall and 77kg. It has a good body build but how he will do against Drogba remains uncertain.

[mitaks]

*

[MartyBhoy7]

Rather than get involved in the 1x2 market tonight, have had a few small stakes first goalscorer bets. With Barcelona missing two key defenders, Chelsea will look to make the game physical and will fancy their chances from set-pieces.

John Terry 28/1 Betfair and Alex 41/1 will be a threat from set plays with the latter also able to strike a free-kick.

Other players worth a look- Malouda 26/1 has been in decent form of late after a poor start to his Chelsea career scoring against Fulham at the weekend and an important goal in the cup against Arsenal. Anelka may well be sacraficed and Malouda will be playing in an advanced wide position so 26/1 does look big. Other one i took was Lampard @ 13.5, one of the best goalscoring midfielders and shoots from anywhere so you'll get a run for your money.

Barca's goals tend to not to be as spread about, with the front 3 of Etoo Messi and Henry scoring the bulk of their goals. Whats the status on Henry's fitness, if Gudjohnsen is expected to replace him 17.5 on him scoring first may be worth a look. He did score the only goal at Anfield in the second leg a few years ago when Barca won 1-0 but went out on away goals.

All prices with Betfair.

[witcha lineman]

OVER 2.5 - 2 Reasons weak barca defence and good barca attack.. barca to outscore chelsea 1-2

[Jase82]

I think after the debacle of last nights game involving poor refereeing decision and random incidents I'm not even going to contemplate previewing tonight's fixture.

The only bet I can see worth a go is Both teams to score @ 1.75

The odds of Chelsea keeping Barcelona at bay for a 2nd successive game are quite slim, so working on the assumption that Barcelona, bouyed by their recent demolition of Madrid, will score. I would think it's fair to assume that Chelsea with the talent in depth they have will score also.

I Don't think Chelsea will play exactly the same as they did in the Nou Camp because they need to score to win. Neither side is leading the tie, and if anything, Barcelona are in a stronger position because should they score, Chelsea will need to score twice to go through.

[1875]

Chelsea and Barcelona, Over 2.0/2.5 goals @ 1.76 (Ladbrokes)

With the first league finishing 0-0 Chelsea know that the run the risk off having to score 2 if Barcelona score 1. Barcelona are one of the best attacking sides in the world and with players like Messi on the field you know they are capable of scoring, Having a weakend team at the back with captain Puyol missing along with Marquez this only makes me believe that Chelsea will get the opportunities.

[DM99]

Originally Posted by AJ

expect Barca to struggle on a tighter pitch.

Chelsea + 0.5 @ 1.48, max stakes

I agree. Both sides now have questions raised about their defence, but the fact remains that Chelsea have the best defence record in the Premier League. It is good that Barca went 6-2 against Real because that means that their odds are artificially low and there is now value in laying them or taking the Chelsea + 0.5.

[blackcrow]

Chelsea - Barcelona over 2.5 (2.05 @ centrebet)
Don't expect Chelsea to sit back and defend like they did away to barcelona as it wouldn't be surprising to see them come out hard and try to get an early goal. With Martquez and Puyols both missing from Barcelona's defence they miss their reliabilty and especially aerial presence, which the likes of Drogba and Ballack should take advantage of. While Messi had a quiet game in the first leg, don't be surprised he has a very good game here and showcases his abilities, as he would have seen Ronaldo cause Arsenal problems and the elite players are always looking to outdo each other. With Etoo and Henry up front, supported by Iniesta and Xavi from midfield, Barcelona have quite a few strike weapons that can beat any team, especially when you see what they did to Real Madrid on the weekend.
Both keepers had very good games in the first leg to keep clean sheets but look to both teams to score here, which will mean that Chelsea will need to go for it with the tie at 1-1. Either they will score a goal or concede on the counter which will bring in the over.