Outrights - Champs League & Europa

[Mozzi]

Shakhtar Donetsk last year, CSKA Moscow in 04/05.

[elgoonerman]

Originally Posted by discodave

The european cup in my eyes is now a lottery you have to work out who uefa want to win, this was proven last year in the semis and the final involving barcelona.

i truly believe that the semi was designed to take as much money off of us as possible and then the final was just a joke,i think fergie was told he had to lose which is why they annihilated barca in the first 10 minutes and then just sat back for the rest of the game, man u were the strongest team last year by a mile

i know we are conditioned to think this does not go on but it just does.

be very careful how you bet on this cup and if you dont believe me fine its your money and your choice.


as an afterthought real could suit this scenario really well as they have spent so much on signings generating more money and more interest in the game as a whole.
i dont think they are good enough if it was a level playing field but its not.

having no defense and just going with the mentality that they can win every game 4-3 is normally a recipe for disaster especially when you come up against teams that do defend well

GL.

I hate some of this English (we are kings of Europe, our teams are god like and when we lose it's a conspiracy) mentality.

Including arsenal my team, the top English clubs are dirty and try to exploit any rule possible! Chelsea fans moaned about the sanctions of Gael Kakuta? What? He's just the tip of the iceberg! Whats the worst part about United, Chelski, Liverpool and us (but were at least addressing the problem with Wilshire, Gibbs, Murphy etc..) Is they buy these talented foreign wonderkids who not only prevent local talent from coming through they also have no intention in playing them in the first team at all.

Not ONE young player has come through the ranks at Chelski since 2003, the last one to make the grade was yes! John Terry!

Against Barca in the semi final Chelsea instead of trying to finish it in normal time just relied on diving to win penalties since they only had the ball for short periods (barca had THAT much possession) Chelsea really should had won that match with the chances drogba had but NO they screwed up and cried conspiracy. Any side worth their salt would have put barca away and would not have given Barca a chance to score in the last minute. Nobody mentions that at all, just this CONSPIRACY rubbish!

United were totally outclassed in the final but NO, United 'didn't' turn up and let barca win. United based their tactics on some greased up ratface to play through the middle and attack by himself and everyone else runs about defends and works hard. Rooney on the wing??? Says it all really you can't expect much from Shrek out there. Ratface had the freedom to attack and move about as he wished. Apart from a few range efforts that were mostly off target he did nothing. What happened was simple, united were beaten by the better team.

[Elensar77]

Galatasaray at 17.00.

[waynecoyne]

watching sevilla madrid
i wondered what price sevilla for champions league
36 on betfair compared to 4 for barca and 5 for real madrid
this seems an error based on perception and reputation
sevilla look a top team
the squad depth may not be as impressive but given luck with injuries
they should have a squeak
at any rate it presents a trading opportunity
anyway have availed myself of a chunk

[waynecoyne]

down to 20 now still overpriced

[mangetous]

Potentially a ridiculous post LOL, but here goes:

Liverpool to qualify for knockout stage - 7/1 (Skybet), Liverpool to win Champions League (Each Way) - 66/1 (Betfred) (1/2 EW)

Ok, this may be highly unlikely and partly blinded by my support of Liverpool!

However I do feel that Liverpool are definately worth a very small "fun" punt. Clearly much relies on the result of the Fiorentina v Lyon match [a home win loses the bet]. Fiorentina are priced at 1/14 to qualify from the group, and I view that effectively as Fiorentina priced as 1/14 to beat Lyon - a price that I believe that no-one would take. The rhetoric coming out of Lyon and more specifically their manager Claude Puel is that they will try their hardest to get a win in Florence. OK, both teams may like to see Liverpool eliminated, but a home win would demote Lyon to second place in the group. Puel is well aware of this, as last season in a similar position they lost at home to Bayern Munich to finish second where they drew the might of Barcelona in the knockout round and were duly eliminated.
A draw or an away victory in the above match leaves Liverpool requiring two victories. They surely will overcome minnows Debrecen who currently have zero points, to leave them with a potential decider versus the Italians. If it comes to this, the 7/1 to qualify and 66/1 to win the tournament will be nowhere to be seen. Liverpool fancy their chances against anyone at Anfield and the atmosphere would be testing for Fiorentina.
In the knockout round, Liverpool have shown in previous seasons that they can beat anyone, and would definately prioritise the Champions League over a flagging domestic campaign.

For me [albeit a Liverpool fan], I am willing to risk a few quid!

[neil]

Thinking of a small punt on Fiorentina, with a view to laying it off later on.

They qualified from a difficult group as winners, and were very impressive, particularly in their last 2 games, where draws would have done but they got wins and topped the group.

Am I right in thinking 2 teams from the same country can't face each other in the 1st knock-out stage? If so, that means Fiorentina automatically avoid the 2 'big' runners-up, Milan and Inter.

That leaves a possible opponent of:

Stuttgart
Bayern
CSKA
Porto
Olympiakos

I think Fiorentina would beat any of those sides over 2 legs, and thus, their price could shorten substantially. It's currently 60s, and I would be backing with a view to laying off, depending on quarter-final opponents.

Anybody know what the prices were like last year at the quarters? For example, if Fiorentina drew Barcelona, would the odds drift higher than 60, or would all eight teams be down below that?

edit - quick bit of googling tells me that Liverpool were 7th favourite from 8 in 2005 @16/1. I know a lot will depend on the draw, but I'm happy enough to take my chances at small stakes for what is an experimental bet!

[waynecoyne]

not a bad shout neil-how far off fitness is jovetic?
porto and bayern probably the most tricky of those listed
if they drew barca in the last 8 the price should still be less than what you
will have backed at-something like 33?

[neil]

Originally Posted by waynecoyne

not a bad shout neil-how far off fitness is jovetic?
porto and bayern probably the most tricky of those listed
if they drew barca in the last 8 the price should still be less than what you
will have backed at-something like 33?

Yeah, that's what I would have thought. Plus, there's a lot of scope for them getting a decent quarter-final draw (Bordeaux, Lyon, Arsenal) that would see their odds drop further.

Could all go horribly wrong, but hey, it's a speculative punt

[daniel20]

Shakhtar will win it again. This is an excellent team, who belongs in the Champions League. I still can't believe they lost to such crappy team like Timisoara in qualies.

[stereoman]

The second round draw:

* Stuttgart vs. Barcelona
* Olympiakos vs. Bordeaux
* Inter Milan vs. Chelsea
* Bayern Munich vs. Fiorentina
* CSKA Moscow vs. Sevilla
* Lyon vs. Real Madrid
* Porto vs. Arsenal
* AC Milan vs. Manchester United

Group winners will be hosting the second leg at their home ground.

[1907zico]

After latest developements of Bayern München I see a great potential to make a surprise in Champions League.
They got a nice beatable opponent with Florenz and I think they will go to next stage.

With Ribery and Robben they will have to worldclass players in their first XI soon (both not fit yet). They could make the difference in close matches and they also got more than average players with Olic, Gomez, Schweinsteiger and so on.
On top of that I like the way Van Gaal does live football as a coach and the things he says which are important.

I will back them 3/10 @21 with a chance to lay them later in the competition I hope.

[Fader]

I can't really see past Barca for the C/L but in the Europa league i can offer some much better value. Salzburg @ 45/1..

They beat the likes of Villareal [twice] and Lazio [twice] to record 6 wins from 6 in their group stage games and have a decent draw against Standard Liege in the last 32 and a possible showdown with Roma/Panathinikos in the last 16.

Great bet for a further lay down the line id say...

Last 32 Draw [Europa]
Hertha Berlin v Benfica
EVERTON v SportingLille v Fenerbahce
FC Twente v Werder Bremen
Standard Liege v Salzburg
Villarreal v Wolfsburg
Hamburg v PSV Eindhoven
LIVERPOOL v Unirea Urziceni
FULHAM v Shakhtar Donetsk
Club Brugge v Valencia
Ajax v Juventus
Atletico Madrid v Galatasaray
Panathinaikos v Roma
Copenhagen v Marseille
Athletic Bilbao v Anderlecht
Rubin Kazan v Hapoel Tel Aviv

Last 16 Draw [Europe]
Club Brugge/Valencia v FC Twente/Werder Bremen
Ajax/Juventus v Fulham/Shakhtar
Lille/Fenerbahce v Liverpool/Unirea
Panathinaikos/Roma v Standard Liege/Salzburg
Hertha Berlin/Benfica v Copenhagen/Marseille
A Madrid/Galatasaray v Everton/Sporting
Rubin/Hapoel v Villarreal/Wolfsburg
Hamburg/PSV v Athletic Bilbao/Anderlecht

[neil]

Originally Posted by neil

Thinking of a small punt on Fiorentina, with a view to laying it off later on.

They qualified from a difficult group as winners, and were very impressive, particularly in their last 2 games, where draws would have done but they got wins and topped the group.

Am I right in thinking 2 teams from the same country can't face each other in the 1st knock-out stage? If so, that means Fiorentina automatically avoid the 2 'big' runners-up, Milan and Inter.

That leaves a possible opponent of:

Stuttgart
Bayern
CSKA
Porto
Olympiakos

I think Fiorentina would beat any of those sides over 2 legs, and thus, their price could shorten substantially. It's currently 60s, and I would be backing with a view to laying off, depending on quarter-final opponents.

Anybody know what the prices were like last year at the quarters? For example, if Fiorentina drew Barcelona, would the odds drift higher than 60, or would all eight teams be down below that?

edit - quick bit of googling tells me that Liverpool were 7th favourite from 8 in 2005 @16/1. I know a lot will depend on the draw, but I'm happy enough to take my chances at small stakes for what is an experimental bet!

Worst draw possible - they're now out to 75s, and I wouldn't even fancy them at that price.

Still, at least now I've got someone to support in the competition!

There could be a bit of value in AC Milan at 28/1. I can see them beating Man United.

[shatmyself]

A bet im liking atm is Ronaldo top scorer @ 2.1 with corals

he is currently top with 6 goals
there are a few players with four goals, he plays upfront for real so might nick a couple more goals, i think they are generous odds, i would make it abut 1.66

8pts @ 2.1

Good Luck

[Rob the I ty]

Inter @15.00 is value. I see them having a decent shot this season if they can get by Chelsea. Chelsea have been struggling a little lately and Inter have been cruising.

They have had many of the same players in place for several years, and Mourinho has the tactics to win a tourny like the CL. If they beat Chelsea those odds will drop heavily.

[RealGreen]

^^You are right, I think the winner of Chelsea Inter will at least make the final. But Inter are cursed in the CL at the latter stages, even though they probably want it more than anything else, Chelsea are also in the same position.

If Real Madrid continue to improve they won't be stopped. They are a relatively new team this year, but have arguably the most talented players with plenty of experienced ones to push through.

[Mustafa]

Originally Posted by Rob the I ty

Inter @15.00 is value. I see them having a decent shot this season if they can get by Chelsea. Chelsea have been struggling a little lately and Inter have been cruising.

They have had many of the same players in place for several years, and Mourinho has the tactics to win a tourny like the CL. If they beat Chelsea those odds will drop heavily.

I really expect Inter to beat Chlesea over the two games. Then with a bit of luck if they don't get the top team they have a chance of making it to the final.

It's true that Inter isn't doing well against English teams. 2007/08 they lost to Liverpool, 2008/09 to Man. United. So, maybe 3rd time will be lucky. And @ 15.00 is a really good value for a team like Inter.

[Mustafa]

UEFA Europa League
When I though about whi can win the title two teams poped in my mind: Rubin and Unirea.

Rubin did really well in their group in CL and played at the same level with top clubs. Even though the football season in Russia hasn't started yet I believe that they can defeat any team in the competition since most of those teams have a bigger priorities in their respective leagues. And odds @ 26.00 look good and realistic.

Unirea was surpise team of the competition and I gues only few expected them to get anything out of their CL group and they did not lose at home. So, I think they can cause an even bigger surprice. Even though they are lowest ranked team to win the trophy @ 201.00 I might place a small bet on them.

[1907zico]

Originally Posted by 1907zico

Europe League

I will take four teams here to win.

First of all Hamburger SV 6/10 @15.
Hamburg is showing more and more of their quality in the team. This weekend they did beat Wolfsburg away from home, before they won clearly against Dortmund! The team has good bench players and is one of the big favourites here.

Second team I chose is Shaktar Donezk 3/10 @23.
Shaktar started bad getting kicked out in Champions League qualification but I believe they have the potential to show good performances in Europe League again. First sign was the away win against Sivasspor!

The last teams which I added are Fenerbahce and Galatasaray both 3/10 @34.
Both teams had a very bad last season and invested a lot to make trouble this season. Winning their recent Europe League matches with ease and getting 3 out of 3 wins in domestic league makes them look strong.
Christoph Daum and Rijkard, the coaches are also very experienced and they really own two quality teams which have more than one good alternative on bench!
Fenerbahce with players such as Dos Santos (you may know him from Brasil national team) Emre, Cristian, Guiza, Alex, Semih and Galatasaray with the turkish national team center backs and in front with Kewell, Arda, Barros, Keita and more!

Laying both Galatasaray&Fenerbahce at this stage. I doubt they will do it to the finals (Lille and Atletico tough opponents).

Lay Galatasaray 3.92/10 @26
Lay Fenerbahce 3.2/10 @32