CL semis 24-25/4 (1st leg)

[AK1979]

Sport	Football (Euro Cups)
Event	Man Utd v AC Milan
Selection	over 2.5 goals
Strength	10/10
Date	24/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.44 (Back)
Reasoning	There could be a touch of value here in the over 2.5 goals market. Widely expected to be a tight game with the Italians defensive record takien into account, the same was thought of their domestic rivals Roma a couple of weeks ago who subsequently suffered a 6 goal thrashing. Man U are capbale of scoring a couple of goals against any side in the world, including a no more than competent looking Milan side. Their defensive injuries are a concern however and it wouldnt be a suprise to see Milan nick an away goal here.

[BlackNapoli]

hello boys!

for tonight i back on goalscored on betfair KAKA(@4,40) & PIRLO (8,8) i think this match is very strong possible score in normal action but the goal is possible on free kick also in penalty kick...i think milan is possible to win and this 2 player to night the are the difference....good luck!

[Xcout]

Well, Milan right now is the less italian team on Italia. That is the team doesn't relay on a heavy defense, is true they have a strong defense, but furthermore depend on the middlefield to destroy rivals attacks.

Dida is doubtfoul of playing and Kalac could take his place.

[cluelessG]

CL semifinals are just the kind of matches that could be decided by a single moment of brilliance of one player. Motivaton is always high, unusual tactics might be employed so there are to many unknown factors. Although I am leaning towards laying Man Utd this evening (because Milan is in pretty good form at the right time, defensive problems for Man Utd., etc), I will probably skip it. But I will definitely have a bet on corners. Look at the stats from the last 4 matches of the two teams in CL (corners taken by each team):

Milan - Bayern 3:5
Bayern - Milan 7:1
Roma - Man Utd 9:3
Man Utd - Roma 3:2
Lille - Man Utd 5:4
Man Utd - Lille 4:2
Celtic - Milan 1:3
Milan - Celtic 11:3

6 times the total number of corners was below 9.5 and only on two occasions the total was over 9.5 (Roma - Man Utd was probably influenced by the red card; Celtic - Milan is certainly a very different match when compared with Man Utd - Milan). So odds about evens for Total corners under 9.5 (Betfair) looks ok to me. The only downside is that you could spent too much time counting the corners during the match

[DJ]

Tonight's game is one which I find so hard to split the difference. The confidence definitely seems to be in the Old Trafford camp inspite of the injuries. Definitely won't be a thrashing like the Roma game and instead I feel the game will be settled by 1 goal or a draw. Milan are strong defensively and can stop Man U's attacking prowess. I think 'Rhino' is a big player for tonight, so important for the defensive and working power of the team.

Difficult to know how Man U will play.... Will they go all out attack and rely on their attacking play to push Milan back? Or instead will they try and play more defensively and hope to win to nil which would be a great result to take to San Siro.

Honestly I have no idea at all what will happen and inspite of hunches would be guessing all over the place with this one. Arguments are there for both sides and all kinda results.

I will just watch and enjoy the game and maybe take a bet in-play if there seems to be any form as to how the game plays out.

[allthethings]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Man U have a tendency to start slowly? I seem to recall someone here taking them live after they concede early...if so I'd think +360 for Milan HT would be a good value.

[DJ]

Originally Posted by allthethings

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Man U have a tendency to start slowly? I seem to recall someone here taking them live after they concede early...if so I'd think +360 for Milan HT would be a good value.

I came up with some stats before about Man U and when they score their goals. That game I was then blown apart as they scored three so quickly against Reading! Layed them and was impossible to come out of it after that!

Now an early goal against Middlesborough, an early goal against Roma and maybe now they're not so slow starting. Usually like looking at the lay for them when they're at under 2. That way there is always more scope for the lay I feel than when they start at 2 or above. Just the numbers seem to move more slowly once they hit 2.

Taking Milan for HT could be an interesting one but that would depend on Milan's mentality for tonight. Whether they are wanting to play a tight game or whether they just instead want the away goal.

[bet2gain]

Last minute news:
GK Dida is in the starting 11; he told Ancelotti he's fine.

[cluelessG]

Starting lineups:
Man Utd: Van der Saar, O'Shea, Brown, Heinze, Evra, Fletcher, Carrick, Scholes, Ronaldo, Rooney, Giggs

Milan: Dida, Oddo, Nesta, Maldini, Jankulovski, Gattuso, Pirlo, Ambrosini, Seedorf, Kaka, Gilardino

[gerrie26681]

Smith is dropped in favour of Fletcher so that should show that Ferguson recognises his weak defense and wants to put an extra working midfielder on to help against Milan's awesome midfield five.

Must admit having laid Man Utd I am disappointed that Milan have not started with Inzaghi who i feel would be much better option than Gilardino upfront on his own.

[aliando]

Sport	Football (Euro Cups)
Event	Man Utd v AC Milan
Selection	Bookings 9pts and over
Strength	5/10
Date	24/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.06 (Back)
Reasoning	First leg of the semi-final tonight and its getting very serious now. Man Utd return to the competition following a 7-1 demolition of Roma and have high expectations. However, they are decimated by injury in defence and their team line up is: Edwin van der Sar; John O'Shea, Wes Brown, Gabriel Heinze, Patrice Evra; Darren Fletcher, Michael Carrick, Paul Scholes; Cristiano Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney, Ryan Giggs Not the worst, but not the greatest defence for Man Utd tonight and there may be a few rash and desperate challenges thrown in. Added to that is the possible explosiveness of Scholes, Rooney and Smith. AC Milan have a few hot heads themselves including Gattuso. They will have this tournement as their primary focus following losing to Liverpool on penalties 2 years ago and also their biggest rivals Inter securing the title in Italy. Ronaldo will cause them problems and I expect one or two bookings will come from challenges on him. Betfairs bet of 9pts and over is based on 2pts per yellow and 5pts per red card, effectively needing 5 bookings or 2 bookings and a sending off. From previous CL games, these to teams average 3 yellow cards in total between them, so just requiring an extra 2 cards from their average. Given the makeshift defence and the prize on offer, it has the potential to be hard game.

[DJ]

Wondering if Ronaldo will cap his week of winning PFA Player of the Year and Young Player of the Year with a goal and good performance against Milan. Often seems some weird coincidence in that kinda performance and outcome. At the moment he's @ 3.35 to score but so close to kick off! Hmmm... do I take this one or not?

[QuantumParadox]

MILAN 2222222222

BY magic Kaka, just missed the 3-1 now.

MILAN oleeeeeeeeeee

[DJ]

Originally Posted by allthethings

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Man U have a tendency to start slowly? I seem to recall someone here taking them live after they concede early...if so I'd think +360 for Milan HT would be a good value.

Hope you covered the HT Milan bet?

[chsua10]

2nd half will be interesting... milan is +0.5 in live betting...

[allthethings]

Quote:
Originally Posted by allthethings
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Man U have a tendency to start slowly? I seem to recall someone here taking them live after they concede early...if so I'd think +360 for Milan HT would be a good value.

Hope you covered the HT Milan bet?

I did! I took over 2 (-140) for the game and Milan (+360) for the first half.

[gregprowt]

have to say i had a tickle on Milan at an amazing 10-3 before the off and covered the draw

amazing what odds the bookies give on Man Utd games in Europe

fingers crossed for the 2nd half

[aliando]

Originally Posted by gregprowt

have to say i had a tickle on Milan at an amazing 10-3 before the off and covered the draw

amazing what odds the bookies give on Man Utd games in Europe

fingers crossed for the 2nd half

moved this to the appropriate thread!

and please do not after event - put bets up before the match or not at all please!

[gregprowt]

Hi fair enough,

but Im not really after eventing or suggesting a tip, its half time so am not telling anybody to get involved

just pointing out the strange odds bookies give on Man Utd in Europe

[BlackNapoli]

Originally Posted by BlackNapoli

hello boys!

for tonight i back on goalscored on betfair KAKA(@4,40) & PIRLO (@8,8) i think this match is very strong possible score in normal action but the goal is possible on free kick also in penalty kick...i think milan is possible to win and this 2 player to night the are the difference....good luck!

OOOOOOOOO YESSSSSS KAKA!! I HOPE FOR PIRLO!!