CL matches - return leg - 6-7/3

[ralinio]

Originally Posted by Uncoabis

Actually just realised that Roma has crap away form in Serie A and European games altogether. But I speculate they might give their 110% tonight since scudetto is impossible task for them and their only major title hope lies on CL trophy this season. They deserved to be priced around 4-5 imo but 6 makes it tempting or maybe laying Lyon if the odds keep dropping, since a draw with goals in the match would ensure Roma qualification.

Serie A has nothing to do with CL. If someone is trying to predict a CL game based on local championship results, he should do something else instead betting



I am laying Lyon and Valencia tonight. Such big prices for so complex matches for double result.

[Ayebrox]

Some team news for Valencia v Inter Milan, taken from the BBC:

Valencia have no selection problems, with Spain midfielders Vicente and Ruben Baraja both returning from injury.


Defender Asier del Horno who made his debut against Celta Vigo after recovering from an Achilles tendon injury is also set to play.

Inter will be without Patrick Vieira, while Esteban Cambiasso is doubtful with a leg injury.
Brazilian striker Adriano pulled his left hamstring in last week's 1-1 Serie A draw with Udinese and misses out.


I have to say, I don't fancy Inter for that game. If I was to back anyone, I would actually back Valencia. But no bet for me on this one.

Good luck to those that do

[ralinio]

Team news for Lyon - Roma:

Lyon's Jeremy Toulalan is suspended for the second leg. Sylvain Wiltord and Karim Benzema missed the first leg because of injuries but played against Sochaux.
Brazilian midfielder Rodrigo Taddei is expected to return for Roma after missing the last two games through illness and a thigh strain.
Striker Mirko Vucinic should be fit for selection despite picking up an ankle injury that required stitches at Ascoli in a Serie A match on Saturday.


Anyway, injury lists does not decide a CL game ...

[Aarun]

Think im going to go with over 2 goals in the Liverpool/Barca game, firstly Benitez said he's going all out but this could be a mind game comment to be honest, however Barca need the goals and they only have 90 minutes from the off so they will push, meaning they will leave leaks in their defence which isn't strong and looks like it will be a back 3, meaning Liverpool could break, especially if Barca get the 1st goal, hopefully Barca will go 1-0 up before half time maybe even 2, then we have a game on where we could see Liverpool then go all out and Barca finishing the game off 3-0. The last meeting a few years ago here was 3-1 to Barca, the 1st leg was 2-1, Eto'o, Ronaldinho and Messi will all start, i'm going for a scoreline of 3-0 to Barcelona and Over 2 goals.

[Aarun]

A small accumulator today could be, Lyon to win as Roma are not brilliant, Lyon are good at home and they are a very good attacking side and I can see them winning the game 2-1 but it could go to ET if Roma can keep them out for 90 minutes which I cannot see. Barcelona for reasons above. Inter to draw 1-1 (this would not see the qualify so they will want more) or sneak a 2-0 win. And the Chelsea game I see being a draw, the scoreline however could be anything from 0-0 to 2-2. Porto COULD surprise them tonight, so taking them on the handicap of +1 could be good.

Tomorrow, I see Celtic will make a game of it, and could make it go to ET, or even make it 1-1, but I see a 2-0 scoreline to Milan realistically, Manchester Utd I feel will have no problems and will kill the game off in the 1st half as they will win about 3-0/3-1-so over 2 goals looks good for this game. Arsenal is a worry, PSV will come to defend their lead and try hit them on the attack, i'm going for a 1-1 in this game it will be very tight and maybe under 2 goals COULD be a good option. Real Madrid without some players including Beckham, Bayern Munich back on form in the league and have 2 away goals, this game will be a draw or a B Munich win, Madrid will come here to defend they will play similar as they did on Sunday which for me they were awful, take B Munich on the double chance.

My Picks for the CL:

Liverpool Vs Barcelona

Correct Score 3-0 to (Barcelona)
Over 2.5 Goals
Barcelona to qualify
Barcelona-Double Chance (Win/Draw)

Chelsea Vs Porto

Correct Score 2-2
Porto +1 Asian Handicap
Over 2 goals
Ballack to score anytime (He loves playing in Europe, he will play well tonight and I see him scoring)

Valencia Vs Inter

Correct Score 2-0 to Inter
Inter 0 Asian Handicap

Lyon Vs Roma

Correct Score 2-1
Over 2 goals
Lyon to Qualify
Lyon-Double Chance (Win/Draw)

Milan Vs Celtic

Correct Score 1-1
Under 2.5 goals
Celtic+1 Asian Handicap
Nakamura to score anytime (Has played initaly with Reggina, and Milan give away a lot of fouls.)

Arsenal Vs PSV

Correct Score 1-1
Under 2.5 goals
PSV+1 Asian Handicap
PSV to qualify

Manchester Utd Vs Lille

Correct Score 3-0/3-1 to Manchester Utd
Rooney to score anytime
Over 2 goals

B Munich Vs Real Madrid

Correct Score 2-0
Under 2.5 goals
B Munich to qualify
B Munich-Double Chance (Win/Draw)

[[Loki]]

I really can't understand why people are overlooking Liverpool in this game. Barcelona lost at home to them and Rafa is statically great against Barcelona weather with Valencia or Liverpool and a better tactician than Frank.

[Aarun]

I just feel Barcelona will go all out tonight, this is the cup they REALLY want, plus they are the holders! Liverpool are good but for me they are not brilliant, we all know Barcelona have not been brilliant in the past month or so, but I feel they can change their season tonight by getting a vital win and then go into the BIG game at weekend it is a much needed morale boost, also Eto'o plays this time, Messi is back to his best, Ronaldinho is Ronaldinho, it's the 3 players any team would want in it, if I was going to buy 3 players they would be my top 3, I can't see Liverpool keeping all 3 of them quiet, also as we saw on Saturday Liverpool give free kicks away... Que Ronaldinho. Eto'o's pace will be looking for a lot of through balls, also Xavi and Iniesta have really bumped up this season not sure if both will play today? I think they will and they are the KEY players to watch out for if in the squad. Liverpool always rely on Steven Gerrard, and if Riijkaard gets him team talk right then we will see a fantastic football match by the champions.Also look at the attacking players:

Deco
Ronaldinho
Eto'o
Gudjohnson (Likes scoring against Liverpool)
Messi
Giuly
Saviola

I think we might even see most of them on the same field at some point IF Barcelona are leading 1-0, drawing 1-1, losing 1-0. They all have aweome ability, Finnan is not brilliant not is Riise, they will be relying on Carragher and Gerrard to pull out the stops and put in the tackling, the effort will be there from Liverpool, but tonight class will show.

[888]

Originally Posted by ralinio

Serie A has nothing to do with CL. If someone is trying to predict a CL game based on local championship results, he should do something else instead betting



I am laying Lyon and Valencia tonight. Such big prices for so complex matches for double result.

I didn't say that CL is directly and strongly correlated and connected with Serie A. In fact, I stated that even though they had poor run lately in Seria A they could spring surprises tonight in CL as they might give 110% to the game since it is the only competition left for them that give them any hope for some major silverware. However, even though I said that CL isn't strongly related to Serie A, I would have to disagree with you a little bit. Imo, it indicates that they are generally poor traveller bar it in Seria or Europe even though that it is not the ultimate variable to analyse a CL match from Seria A alone. But seeing things in the broader perspective and putting all little details that have little connection wouldn't hurt as long as its slightly connected in some manner ( i.e regarding their approach on away games)

And if you are curious why I put Serie A in my post earlier was because I didn't quite agree with the bookie for the price they give on Roma and I'm just speculating of what might caused it. I'm not bookies and I know I won't know 100% what they are thinking but I'm using all the theory I could gathered to predict why there was such high prices for Roma.

[bairnpunter]

Originally Posted by Ayebrox

First of all, I will put my cards on the table and state the fact that I am a Rangers fan ! However, when it comes to betting I like to view myself as an objective punter. And in this game, I am sure even the most loyal of Celtic fans will acknowledge that that it is more than likely that this is the end of the line for Celtic.

2-5 for a Milan win is not a price that will reap great reward. However, 11-10 on the handicap (Milan -1) is a much more appealing prospect, and this should be jumped on in my view.

In AC Milan’s first two home games in the group stages, they scored a total of 7 goals. They lost their final home game 2-0, but by this time the result was of no importance. Celtic have an excellent shot stopper in Artur Boruc, but they also have centre backs in front of him that will give Milan chances in the San Siro. McManus is a big, strong traditional centre half, but he’s often very rash in the tackle. His centre back partner will be young O’Dea, who is relatively untested, not only at Champions League level, but at first team level full stop. Former Hearts captain Steven Pressley has been partnering McManus in domestic fixtures, despite the fact that he’s ineligible for the European ties, so O’Dea will be brought in out of the cold once again for this tie.

Celtic have the second worst away record in Champions League history. They have played 12 fixtures away from home, and their record is 0 wins 1 draw 11 defeats. Each of the 3 sides in Celtic’s group defeated Celtic away from Parkhead, and all of them managed to score 3 goals in those games.

The general feeling up here amongst the pundits was that for Celtic to progress, they would have to win the game at Parkhead, and probably by at least a couple of goals, due to their awful away form. It is now a real monkey on their back, every time the away fixtures come round the same questions are put to the manager and the players, and the results seem to indicate that self doubt creeps in when they are away from Parkhead.

Still early too early to hear any reliable team news, but Celtic’s key striker, JVH, is struggling with a hamstring injury. He’s been struggling with injuries since he arrived at Parkhead, and hasn’t had much time on the park recently due to the recent hamstring problem. He came on for the last half hour in the game on Saturday. But it would seem that he’s a doubt to start in Milan, and will certainly not be 100% fit. This would be a massive blow for them, as he’s the only striker they have that’s comfortable operating at this level.

Undoubtedly back Milan here, and as I’ve said, I would suggest the handicap bet, Milan -1.

I see this as a rock solid bet. However, if someone was going to put this bet at risk, it would be Nakamura. I highly doubt Celtic will manage a goal from open play, but Nakamura can be deadly from set pieces, as he’s shown against Man United, twice. A small stake for Nakamura to be last goalscorer (16/1) may be sensible.. If Milan go a couple of goals up, we could see them shutting up shop and allowing Celtic to come onto them. And if Celtic get a free kick late in the game, it might calm the nerves a bit if you have a quid or two on Nakamura putting it away !

Good luck !

I agree with your analysis here, Celtic's away form speaks for itself. The difference in quality of the midfield, is massive. Celtic had to work so hard in the first leg, whilst Milan were unlucky not to score on several occasions. At home, I can't see anything but a victory for Milan.

Celtic's only hope rests with a fully fit JVH. Milan gave Nakamura no space in the first leg, and McGeady struggled with Oddo(?). Sno, and Lennon have no desire to get forward, so maybe Graveson starting would be interesting (Strachan dropped Lennon against Dunfermline, and started with Sno/Graveson. Lennon was not missed apprarently. I'm a Falkirk fan but my wife and father in law Celtic season ticket holders)

As Ayebrox said, at the back Celtic have problems with Pressley cuptied, and McManus having to prove his fitness today. O'Dea or maybe even John Kennedy may be required.

I'm quite keen on the AH as Ayebrox said. I'll wait a bit longer for team news.

Will Seedorf play? He's a great player. He scored at the w/end I believe. World class midfield will prevail. Milan's only chance of silverware too.

[expert]

Sport	Football (Euro Cups)
Event	Chelsea vs. Porto
Selection	Chelsea (-1.25) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	06/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	10bet @ 2.17 (Back)
Reasoning	If there can be a straightforward match in late CL stages, thats the one. Chelsea big favs to progress to quarter at the expence of Porto. Porto did a good job at home when they succeeded to get a draw, but they need to score tonight, otherwise theyre out, so no way they will be in defensive mood tonight, but cant expect them to attack also. Chelsea has proven itself on the Euro stages in past years, as they had good results vs. much stronger teams as Porto currently is, they had Murinho and they will have crowd. With the squad the Portugese coach has at his disposal this one could be decided in the first half, but much depends also from the finishing of the Blues..with Drogba in form, this one could finish with an routine and easy win for the home team. Going for the suggested handicap as i firmly believe Chelsea will strike first and in that situation Porto will lay all cards on the table and leave room at the back..and i still cant forget the 10 mins Chelski played vs. Barca in 2005...

[888]

Any1 noticed on AH Chelsea prices had increased while Porto prices had decreased. Hhhmm.. wondering what the bookies know that we don't. Could this be an ET match ? I can't see Chelsea not qualifying but the movement in lines had made me think will they be able to do it on 90 mins. Ofc this is just a speculation but this doesnt look right, I was expecting odds to go down for Chelsea and not up.

[Aarun]

Originally Posted by Uncoabis

Any1 noticed on AH Chelsea prices had increased while Porto prices had decreased. Hhhmm.. wondering what the bookies know that we don't. Could this be an ET match ? I can't see Chelsea not qualifying but the movement in lines had made me think will they be able to do it on 90 mins. Ofc this is just a speculation but this doesnt look right, I was expecting odds to go down for Chelsea and not up.

Boulharouz is back, beware if he plays he is as useless as a teapot in the middle of a road, he is to blame for 7 goals so far this season and i'm going to keep counting because he is their weak link. Porto played well in the 1st leg hit the bar too, Quaresma is the player to watch out for them... I'd certainly take the AH on Porto.

[McFly]

I like the over in Valencia-Inter at 2.42. fancied it and didn't think it would get paid like that. Inter has to open up and takes risk so that I think there will be plenty of action and at least 3 goals. Inter defence maybe shaky again, Valencia at first defensive thou.

Probably a dangerous one Liverpool v Barca, on the other side Barca shouldn't loose it at least and preference stiil rather has to go to the away team I guess. Barca (0) AH

Finally, my favourite bet is Bayern. maybe biased but I think Bayern have the power to fight Real down by a goal. Salihamidzic is doubtful though as one of the best current Bayern player. Beckham as best player in first leg is ruled out.

[Carl]

I think its going to be 2-1 Barca tonight,
Barcelona have it all to do playing at one of the most fortified venues in European football, needing to score at least two goals which is very attainable IMHO. Rijkaard will however, be aware that Liverpool were beaten at Anfield 2-0 by Benfica at the same stage last year, ending their defence of the competition.
If the Spanish champions can pull together they are certainly capable of clawing back the deficit.
Liverpools confidence might just be a little rocked from the ManUtd game and tonight will see E'to play after he missed the first leg, He's had 3 matches now under his belt and will strip fitter for this.

Barca have lost 2 in 20 European ties although Liverpool have lost 1 in 13 at Anfield in the CL, they have never beaten a Spanish side at Anfield in the CL drawing 2 and losing 2.

Barca to edged it tonight. 2-1

[888]

Originally Posted by Aarun

Boulharouz is back, beware if he plays he is as useless as a teapot in the middle of a road, he is to blame for 7 goals so far this season and i'm going to keep counting because he is their weak link. Porto played well in the 1st leg hit the bar too, Quaresma is the player to watch out for them... I'd certainly take the AH on Porto.

I gotta agree on Boulahrouz, hes impressive sometimes and useless at other times.

[samm]

[popay]

Liv`pool-Barcelona.......Xmm....I think Barcelona will win!I know Liverpool is very good team BUT Barcelona as CL winner want to keep this cup!Ronaldihnio....Eto...Messi...Deco..Iniesta.... Etc.....are big players for these difficult games!For me Away win........Score:1-2!!
Valencia-Inter........WoW!What a game!!!!I think 1X is the most safest bet for this game....As all we know Valencia in Mestaja is too strong!I expect a close game....Under 2.5 goals is possible but i think 1X is more possible!!!

[aristoteles]

I like the over2/2.5 in Lyon-Roma at 2.09 Pinnacle

Lyon:
Grégory Coupet; Anthony Réveillère/François Clerc, Sébastien Squillaci, Cris, Eric Abidal; Tiago, Alou Diarra, Juninho Pernambucano; Sidney Govou, Florent Malouda; Fred.

Roma:
Doni; Christian Panucci, Cristian Chivu, Philippe Mexes, Max Tonetto; David Pizarro, Daniele De Rossi; Taddei, Simone Perrotta, Mancini; Francesco Totti.

Lyon

03-MAR-07	St.Etienne	1-3	Lyon	France Le Championnat
24-FEB-07	Lyon	3-3	Sochaux	France Le Championnat
21-FEB-07	Roma	0-0	Lyon	Champions League
16-FEB-07	Lille	1-2	Lyon	France Le Championnat
10-FEB-07	Lyon	1-0	Lorient	France Le Championnat
04-FEB-07	Troyes	1-0	Lyon	France Le Championnat
31-JAN-07	Marseille	2-1	Lyon	France - FA Cup
27-JAN-07	Lyon	1-1	Nice	France Le Championnat
24-JAN-07	Lyon	1-2	Bordeaux	France Le Championnat
20-JAN-07	Laon	1-3	Lyon	France - FA Cup
17-JAN-07	Lyon	1-0	Le Mans	France - League Cup

Roma

03-MAR-07	Ascoli	1-1	Roma	Italy - Serie A
28-FEB-07	Chievo	2-2	Roma	Italy - Serie A
25-FEB-07	Roma	3-0	Reggina	Italy - Serie A
21-FEB-07	Roma	0-0	Lyon	Champions League
17-FEB-07	Empoli	1-0	Roma	Italy - Serie A
11-FEB-07	Roma	3-0	Parma	Italy - Serie A
31-JAN-07	Roma	3-1	Milan	Italy - Cup
28-JAN-07	Roma	1-0	Siena	Italy - Serie A
25-JAN-07	Milan	2-2	Roma	Italy - Cup
21-JAN-07	Livorno	1-1	Roma	Italy - Serie A

[Aarun]

I went for the Over 2 in the Barca/Liverpool game, rubbish odds though at 1.80, keeps falling

[samm]

I don't sees it in this way mate cause tonight match is very tense between this 2 teams ( Lyon & Roma ) Lyon knows if they score first doesn't mean they will be tru to the next round cause if Roma score also they will be out so Lyon is very careful when they attack. So I think both teams will be very careful in the first half, I predict it will end 0-0. I think both team will want to score late in the second half which I think Lyon will come out to attack first, so if they score late and defence I think it will end like 1-1 or 2-0 to lyon and it will be an under. As I have mention above they don't mind going into extra time.