Champions League Winner 2006/7

[fenlandtiger]

A link to Mark Lawrenson's view of the game..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/foot...pe/6679235.stm

[Youssef]

No links to click on... my preview is right on this forum

Furthermore, I'm not tipping anything (so as not to upset anyone). You make your own minds.

Here goes:

Referee Herbert Fandel (Germany) who’s in charge of tonight’s CL final will be faced with different emotions from both sides fans.

He was in charge last for the Reds when they went 0-1 down to Barca at home in this campaign’s round of 16. Previously, he officiated 2 other games for them, one last season against Chelsea in the Bridge (ended 0-0) and the other 4 seasons ago when they lost 0-2 to Valencia.

This means that Liverpool have yet to score when Mr Fandel in at the center of the field.

On contrary, this gentleman was in charge in 5 games for Milan, the latest of which was the group stage home game vs. Anderlecht in which Milan came on top with a 4-1 scoreline. Earlier he was the ref in a 1-0 home win over Man Utd 2 seasons ago, a 1-0 victory over Shakhtar the year before, and yet another 1-0 win over Club Brugge in 2003.

His first game officiating a game involving Milan was in 2002 and they won 2-0 over Hapoel tel Aviv.

The oppointment of Fandel to officiate this game sent the Italian fans on an overwhelming optimistic wave, as we all know the Italians believe much in omens, so I had to defuse this one before it spread further.

Whom did Milan play under Fandel? Man U? We all know Man U doesn’t know how to play Italian teams, and especially Milan. They don’t even play well in Europe to begin with.

Shakhtar? That was 2 seasons ago, when Shakhtar didn’t have any experience in Europe.
Anderlecht & Club Brugge? Both Belgian clubs are mediocre teams at best.
Hapoel? Come on… do I even need to comment on this one?

Liverpool under him lost to Barca.. and they qualified on aggregate. They drew away to Chelsea, and qualified on aggregate. The only time they got knocked out was when they met with Valencia, and they even lost at home as well, so it must’ve had nothing to do with him!

The two teams have met only once before, and it was in 2005 CL final. Almost every soccer fan remembers Milan were 3-0 up at half time and were swept off the filed in the brackets of 6 minutes to find themselves playing a penalty shoot out which they lost.

Domestically, Liverpool finished 3^rd in EPL, and Milan is likely to finish 4^th in Serie A.
20-8-10 is Liverpool’s record in EPL, while Milan’s in Serie A is 19-12-6 with 1 game remaining.
Liverpool scored 57 goals and conceded 27, while Milan scored 55 and conceded 31.

Liverpool averages a goal scored every 60 minutes, and a goal conceded every 127 minutes, while Milan score every 58 minutes in average and concede every 95 minutes.

The stats are so close, but I have to point out that EPL is a bit more competitive than Serie A.

Now let’s see how they fare in this CL campaign in particular:

Liverpool would stand atop on the overall hypothetical table with 8 wins, 1 draw & 3 losses, having scored 18 and conceded 8, and managing 7 clean sheets from 12 games. They failed to score on 3 occasions (25%)

Milan would stand 4^th on that table, managing a 6-3-3 record, scoring 18 and conceding 9, and have also managed 7 clean sheets. The have failed to score on 4 occasions (33%)

Even the teams they had to meet on their way to Athens seem closely matched, with Liverpool disposing of Chelsea in the semi-final, and Milan overcoming Man Utd.

Earlier, Liverpool topped their group of Bordeaux, PSV & Galatsaray, then knocked out Barca & PSV (again), while Milan topped their group of AEK, Lille & Anderlecht, then knocked out Celtic & Bayern, and while Milan had a “cesarian” laboured win over Celtin in the extra time after drawing goalless on both legs, Liverpool took it a step further against Chelsea and had to reach a penalty shoot out to reach this final.

Everything seems so equal so far that one can hardly separate the two. In fact, based on the above I would suspect the draw should be priced at evens, with either party winning priced at around 3.00

We will need to “guess” how both coaches will approach this game if we are to place a bet on a different outcome (other than the draw in the original 90 minutes)

Both managers always seem to force their own style and pace on the games of their respective teams.
But while Ancellotti plays almost always with the same plan, and only switches players roles within the same overall dynamics, Benitez seems to put a different plan for each game, depending on the opponents style of play. (Kind of, reacting rather than initiating the action). So, in short, Benitez IMHO is more flexible.

Milan plays a 4-5-1 formation. If they are to attack they play Ambrosini as their “pivot” with Gattuso as the midfield defender who’s main role is to stop opponents from building their attacks.
Pirlo becomes the play maker, with Kaka & Seedorf forming the base of a striking triangle, with Inzaghi (or Giladino) at the top of the triangle.

The main action here is for Pirlo to send long passes to Kaka, whose pace and talent allow him to elude his marker. Kaka also gets the freedom to fall back leaving Seedorf alone in what looks like a 4-4-1-1 formation for Kaka to collect the ball and dribble his way forward.

If Milan should dfend, however, Pirlo takes over Ambrosini’s role as the centre pivot, while the latter marks the opponents play maker, and Gattuso also turns into a marker, with Seedorf falling back in what would look like a 4-3-1-2 formation, with Kaka playing alongside Inzaghi.

Benitez –as I said- has a different plot for each game. He played Barca with the X-mas tree formation (4-3-2-1) with Kuyt as the lone striker.

When he turned into an attacking mode, Bellamy joined Kuyt upfront, while Gerrad went to the right side.

Against Chelsea, however, he played a classic 4-4-2 formation, which gave Gerrad more of the defending load. The flanks (Pennant on the right, and Riise/Zenden on the left) would send crosses, and in this case Peter Crouch is likely to be alongside Kuyt as he was against Chelsea (2^nd leg) and managed to hit the bar once, and Cech stopped a certain goal on another accasion with the ball chosing to stand still between his feet.

Seeing as to how Liverpool (overall) look the younger team, Milan will have to attack at 1^st, in an attempt to take an early lead. Liverpool would be expected to defend first, making sure they maintain a clean sheet, and while the Milan will start to fall back and slow down, Liverpool will try to take the initiative from that point and come forward, but not forgetting to keep it tight at the back, lest they get hit by a speedy counter attack.

2 years ago Hamann did the trick as he came on from the bench. He’s no longer a Liverpool player, so one will have to look for some other Liverpool man-of-the match. Finnan, Carragher, Riise, Gerrad & Alonso are the ones from that final that are expected to feature on this one, with Hyypia watching from the bench this time. Kewell is injured, Baros, Cisse, Traore Luis Garcia & Smicer have also left the team.

The new faces of Reina under the bar, with Agger, Mascherano, Zenden, Bellamy & Kuyt are likely to feature tonight, with Arbeloa, Gonzalez, Crouch, Fowler & Pennant available on the bench.

In Milan; Dida, Nesta, Maldini, Gattuso, Pirlo, Seedorf & Kaka are the old faces, with Cafu on the bench. New faces may include influential duo Oddo & Ambrosini, with Inzaghi, Jankulovski, Favalli, Gilardino, Kaladze, Kalac, Bonera & Brocchi.

The big names of Stam, Crespo, Sheva, Tomasson, Rui Costa & Serginho have all left the team.

This means the Reds have improved on both their man under the bar and the defence line before him, while gained strength in their midfield and Kaka is a whole different player than he was in 2005.

Kuyt, Crouch & Bellamy are obviously no match to a Cisse-Baros duo upfront, but it could be argued that Kuyt’s pace and continuous running could be the key to exhausting the older guys in Milan’s defence.

Finally; It will be a farce if Milan managed to win the title. A team that should’ve been excluded/banned at the beginning of the season, re-joins threw an appeal, eventhough they HAVE BEEN found guilty of CHEATING, then they go all the way to win the trophy! Simply pathetic from a pure ethical point of view.

[ksk1912]

AC Milan - Liverpool

On my side this game will be end over 2.5 goal.
I dont no why,but in every newspapers we can see that Ac Milan is favorite.This is a little handicap for the Ac Milan and this reason gives to the reds the secret advantage....(i think this is the holy advantage)
I believe that the reds scores early and this will shock the Favorites.

Over 2.5 goal

[Rob the I ty]

GK: Edge L'pool
Def: Slight edge Milan.
MF: Edge Milan
F: Edge L'pool.

Who would have tought it would only take 2 years for these teams to replay the greatest CL final ever. Milan are just about the same except their forwards are not Crespo & Sheva, but they are better at the back with the slow footed Stam gone. Liverpool are much better than they were in all phases. But will they have the same fortune they did last time, I don't think so. Liverpool outplayed Milan for 10 minutes in that game, 99 times out of 100 Milan win and that is based purely on how Milan carved up the Reds defence time and time again. I don't see Milan dominating like Istanbul but they will utilize the wings with Oddo & Jankulovski pushing up. This will eventually lead to Kaka getting more space in the middle where with anytime or space he will dismantle the Reds.

Milan FT @2.40
Milan -1 @3.65
CS 2-0 Milan @10.00
Scorecast Kaka & Milan 2-0 @45.00
Small cover on L'pool to win on pk @10.00, & Milan to win on pk @10.00.
Man of Match Rino Gattuso @15.00

[blackcrow]

Liverpool win

All of a sudden, after one game, Milan are unbeatable. Don't worry that their form hasn't been anywhere near that game vs Man U. One could say that performance was a freak of nature considering the rest of their performance's during the year were at best, good, without being spectacular.

Going back to that Man Utd game, in hindsight, Man U played a bad game, especially tactically. They had a few injuries in defence and they opened up far too much for Kaka to cause the damage. Do you really think that Macherano, Alonso and Gerrard will give their midfield that much freedom to dictate the play?

Man U were commended by Milan as being the best football playing English team - why? Because they gave them the room to play. Milan commended them for givng them the game, laughing at the suicide tactics used by Man U which allowed them to open them up quite regularly.

Any team can look good if the other team stays off them and allows them to weave and thread passes. Won't be happening in the final. Liverpool plays defence with all 11 eleven players, and gets everybody behind the ball. I think Liverpool have been underestimated how well they can play under pressure when defending, and for all the doubters, i think we will see it once again in the final.

Much has been said about the Milanese attacking threats but strangely quiet about their defence, and there lies a big weakness. Aging, slow (albeit experienced) backline who hate players running at them (calling Bellamy, Kewell).

Liverpool are the underdogs and not expected to win. Man U were everybody's favourites after thumping Roma, and then got thumped by Milan. Well guess what, Milan will follow the course of Man U as one game wonders. My only concern is about converting our chances which has been our biggest problem this year and why we haven't challenged for the title. Too many games were lost away from home where we dominated but didn't score. That is my main concern again.

My money will be on Liverpool, not only because i support them, but because they have a very realistic chance of beating them, and at the odds they are at, there is alot of value there

[Punto Banco]

Originally Posted by blackcrow

Liverpool win

All of a sudden, after one game, Milan are unbeatable. Don't worry that their form hasn't been anywhere near that game vs Man U. One could say that performance was a freak of nature considering the rest of their performance's during the year were at best, good, without being spectacular.

Going back to that Man Utd game, in hindsight, Man U played a bad game, especially tactically. They had a few injuries in defence and they opened up far too much for Kaka to cause the damage. Do you really think that Macherano, Alonso and Gerrard will give their midfield that much freedom to dictate the play?

Man U were commended by Milan as being the best football playing English team - why? Because they gave them the room to play. Milan commended them for givng them the game, laughing at the suicide tactics used by Man U which allowed them to open them up quite regularly.

Any team can look good if the other team stays off them and allows them to weave and thread passes. Won't be happening in the final. Liverpool plays defence with all 11 eleven players, and gets everybody behind the ball. I think Liverpool have been underestimated how well they can play under pressure when defending, and for all the doubters, i think we will see it once again in the final.

Much has been said about the Milanese attacking threats but strangely quiet about their defence, and there lies a big weakness. Aging, slow (albeit experienced) backline who hate players running at them (calling Bellamy, Kewell).

Liverpool are the underdogs and not expected to win. Man U were everybody's favourites after thumping Roma, and then got thumped by Milan. Well guess what, Milan will follow the course of Man U as one game wonders. My only concern is about converting our chances which has been our biggest problem this year and why we haven't challenged for the title. Too many games were lost away from home where we dominated but didn't score. That is my main concern again.

My money will be on Liverpool, not only because i support them, but because they have a very realistic chance of beating them, and at the odds they are at, there is alot of value there

Completely agree with you especially with our main problem being converting chances... specifically I think Kuyt has hit the bars more than any top league player of recent times... just seems like evry time I see him he his heading the ball right into the crossbar...

... I'll have a small bet on the 2 win the CL @ 2.25 and perhaps watch 4 any live opportunities (tho there rnt usually any)... gl all anyways...

... I just wish I could be there sporting red singing "You'll never walk alone"... GL boys...

[popay]

Hi Guys from the rainy Greece!I will bet Over 2.5 goals...Big game...big players....come on guys...Over 2.5 goals is possible!!!
First player to score:Paolo Maldini!!!!!! small stake
GL all...Hope to watch a good final!

[rebel_penguin]

Milan – Liverpool: OVER 2½ (odds 2,50 - Unibet.com)

I agree with ksk1912 and popay. There is a good chance this game will go over.

Analysis:
We all know that both Milan and Liverpool can play great defence, but the true value of this bet lies in the odds. For this odds to be right only 36% of their games are going to go OVER 2½ and I just don’t see that.

Let’s look at the stats (source: http://www.livegoals.com )

Average goals scored in Champions League playoff games:

2007: 2,50 goals per game
2006: 1,97 goals per game

The average goals are considerably higher than last year, showing that the playoff games of 2007 are not as defensive as one might think. Furthermore, because of the low scoring games last year, we are getting better value on the OVER this year.

Over / under in this years CL playoff games:

Liverpool 2 OVER / 4 UNDER
Milan 3 OVER / 3 UNDER

All though these stats point to the under, we would still make a profit on the current odds of 2,50 by playing the OVER.
However, Liverpool’s stats are dragged down from playing the two 1-0 games against Chelsea, who might have the best defence in the world measured in goals allowed. Furthermore national playoff games in CL tend to go under, so I really think the OVER/UNDER is much of a toss up from these stats.

If we look at their national leagues, 45% of Liverpool’s games have gone OVER and 46% of Milan’s games have gone OVER. Both well above the 36% mark I mentioned in the top.

The only recent meeting between these two clubs ended in the memorable 3-3 final 2 years ago. The reason Liverpool was able to make that comeback was due to their tireless running and constant pressure on the ball.

It is the same type of pressure that has allowed Liverpool to advance to the finals this year. I fully expect Liverpool to come firing out at kick-off, because they know this is how they can beat Milan – and how they did it 2 years ago.

The most convincing stats backing the OVER come when you look at the history of the Champions Leagues finals:

2006: Barcelona 2 – 1 Arsenal
2005: Milan 3 – 3 Liverpool
2004: Monaco 0 – 3 FC Porto
2003: Juventus 0 – 0 Milan
2002: Leverkusen 1 – 2 Real Madrid

4 of the last 5 and 7 of the last 10 finals have gone OVER 2½ Goals.

These numbers are amazing. This is because the Final is different from all other games. You come to win it, and you have to score to win. The crowd demands goals and encourages teams to be offensive (kind of like the Superbowl, which is also higher scoring than regular playoff games).

Try to think of it. You are getting odds 2,50 in a game that has gone OVER 70% of the times during the last decade. I think that is good value

I estimate the chances of this bet going OVER to be 50% based on above analysis.

Good luckJ

[allthethings]

I disagree on the overs here. The question is, what type of game plan do you think will be attempted, and which will succeed?

Milan is built for a quick strike, and if Kaka scores early teams with the tactical cojones abandon their game plan and try to equalize immediately. Liverpool is not built this way. More than that, if Milan attempt the early strike and are thwarted (which I think is the most likely scenario) the Reds will pursue their likely game plan of wearing Milan down, as Milan shows some age in the second half, which is where Liverpool usually does most of its damage. Check how many games have Liverpool 0-0 at the half, 2-0 final.

I think Liverpool to lift the cup or Liverpool DNB both have tremendous value. I would think Draw HT/Liverpool FT might be a good one too.

And yes, it is possible that we'll see a 2-1 type of game...but I wouldn't bet on it. If Liverpool score first, whether in the first half or second half, I think there is a very good chance of a 1-0 or 2-0 type of game.

[allthethings]

You come to win it, and you have to score to win.

You can win 1-0 or 2-0 in this game, too. You can even win in ET. The point is to win, not to stop doing what you do best.

The crowd demands goals and encourages teams to be offensive (kind of like the Superbowl, which is also higher scoring than regular playoff games).

The Super Bowl is higher scoring than the regular season only in that teams run up the score against opponents who abandon their game plan. Super Bowls that are competitive usually are low-scoring, while teams that get behind 21-3 tend to lose 51-10. In any case, the games are different. Note also that the Barca game had Arsenal playing defense for 60 minutes while a man short before they finally allowed a goal, and having done so, you could see the wind go out of their sails and they allowed the winner five or six minutes later. But that was a 75-minute 1-0 nail-biter.

[cricket lover]

does anyone have any feelings on whether there will be many corners or not? im thinking about taking over 10 corners at 5/4? any thoughts much appreciated.

[theoldmaster]

i have stats that suggest to go under,my friend
Milan have averaged 9.8 corners away this term
while liverpool have 60% of games under 10 i have gone for the under 10 myself.

[jibby6]

i have put on 9/10 stake on milan/ milan at 10/3. 4/10 on milan to win 2-0 at 10/1. what you reckon people??

[cricket lover]

Thanks a lot oldmaster, that is very interesting.

[Punto Banco]

Originally Posted by jibby6

i have put on 9/10 stake on milan/ milan at 10/3. 4/10 on milan to win 2-0 at 10/1. what you reckon people??

...I think you may have issues...

4units Draw @ HT @ 1.9
3.5units Liverpool 2 win CL @ 2.25
1unit kaka 1st goal @ 8 (Saver)

Very differing piks.... my god I cannot believe its starting in 3 hours... First a NSW State of Origin loss... lets the merseyside boys get the job done or I will have had almost the worst night/day in my life (or so it will seem @ the time)... I am only happy 2 be up @ 4am but I'd suggest they switch times next year to suit us Aussies...

[allthethings]

Just couldn't help myself, making a very small wager.

Soccer - Liverpool - spread pk (+145)
for the regulation time held on May 23 at 1:45pm [pending]

Soccer - Draw (AC Milan vs Liverpool) - moneyline (+205)
for the regulation time held on May 23 at 1:45pm [pending]

Risking 1.5 units in total, will win 1 unit in the case of either a draw or a Reds win.

BOL all, enjoy the game. Rain and lightning forecast, could get ugly.

[SecondSight]

I think it will be a close game as 2 years ago. I think there is some value in the game going beyond 90 minutes. If it is low scoring game as many suspect, the chances of a draw increases.

My bets are:

Milan in ET 2pts@12.5

Milan on Pens 2pts@11.0 (Bet365)

Liverpool in ET 2pts@16.5

Liverpool on Pens 2pts@11.5

2-2 2pts@27.0

Al bets are Betfair unless indicated otherwise.

Good luck all

[misky]

Nice one. Had a dabble, though its 5/1 now.
Edit: wrong place.

Had a dabble at Reina man of match @ 20/1, just in case it goes to penalties.
Kaka first goal and 1-1 scorecast for a bit of fun too @ 40/1.

[nastro 1888]

draw / milan @ 9/2


pirlo 1-0 @ 50/1



g.l

[happygooner]

I thought you'd nailed it for a minute there haha!