Champions League Tue 11th

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by modo

Thanks for informtion from Turkey shef,what news from Portugal JC about Porto-Besiktas?

Hi modo.

I think Porto will win (they'll be "full power" and rested some important players over the weekend) but IMO the odd is far too low for a CL game and Porto coach is known for not taking many risks...
...I'm staying away from this one.



JC

[modo]

Obrigado .

[australian_punter]

Hello punterslounge!

This is my first post so i'm not quite sure what i should say. I have enjoyed making money from soccer over the last few years and i thought i might join this website and help everyone else win some money. I like low risk bets in the champion's league so here are my early Tuesday tips

10/10 Liverpool +0.5 @ 1.35
10/10 Chelsea +0.5 @ 1.35
6/10 Over 2.5 goals (real madrid) @1.70


Liverpool have always preformed well under pressure in the Champions league. And i think the very worst case senario here would be a draw for the reds.

3 words: CHELSEA AT HOME!

I always like over 2.5 goals whenever Real Mardid play, they are like tottenham when they play at home(a high scoring team that always get a goal scored agaisnt them) so real madrid at home is enough to justify over 2.5 goals i think.

Gl with all your tips!

[Toronto_Mike]

Originally Posted by JCtips

Toronto_Mike,

No worries mate, I like to invest my money this way many times "buying on bad news and selling on good news".
I know the "public" doesn't like to bet on "dogs" or bad teams...but I do when I see value.

In a football match there are two teams not only one no matter how good they are.
Chelsea is only one of them in this match and they have no particular motivation for this game, while as Valencia needs to win.
With so many games in the season and the next one being an important one, Chelsea will probably rest some players (if they're smart they'll do it).
Remember what happened last year between these two teams at S. Bridge?

By the way, I got Rosenborg right when they played at Chelsea and Rosenborg doesn't have nearly the same quality as Valencia who have enough quality to beat any team on the planet on a good day.



JC

Mate, you cannot count on "Last Year" different squads, different coaches, different scenario.

what i'm saying is, if you are going to play Valencia +0.75 you might as well just pound the draw because there is very very very little percentage that Chelsea will lose this game. Valencia winning will be a shock, they are just smashed right now. Of course Chelsea don't really see any reason to go all out. Its one thing for Valencia to "have to win" and "can win". valencia are desperate and backing them at any price is just dangerous when they have yet to win a game in their last 4.

GL though, anything can happen. I just feel Schalke have a better opportunity to qualify than Valencia.

[warumnix]

hi every1 from izmir-turkey, this is my first message here. hope to contribute with my comments
PORTO-BESIKTAS ISTANBUL
when we look at the group A, the picture seems really very complicated 4 us.
for porto, only a draw is enough to qualify. but on the other hand they will rather struggle for a home win. the first reason is that if they draw, they will probably qualify as the 2nd team and thus, match with one of the leaders of other groups, so to say tough teams like chelsea and barca, rather than team like fenerbahce and schalke. secondly, their rival besiktas had previously got their heavy 8-0 loss in their last away game against livapool. this will be a motivation for porto to win, regarding how vulnerable besiktas is in their away matches. so porto will definetely go for a straight home win.
on the other hand, as a turk, what i observe here is that for besiktas, rather than an away win which will carry them to the next stage, they will be struggling for a good defence, as a probable 2nd heavy loss will never be tolerated by the board and the fans.
2 sum up, i) i'll eat my hat if besiktas wins
ii) under 2,5 goals is very probable
iii)dont think both temas will score (relying upon besiktas' unwillingness 2 score.)

[Toronto_Mike]

starting to think Liverpool seems like a sucker bet. Another team thats desperate. This game could be a hit or miss for Rafa Benitez. Not too sure just how badly the owners want him gone or to stay on.

[Toronto_Mike]

JC,
line has dropped to +0.5 now looks like i'll have to follow suit. Going to play the Chelsea/Valencia draw for fun. Good Luck mate

[matija]

Olympiakos is very tough at home. Those games have always been low scoring ones and I wouldn't be surprised if tonight's game turns out to be as well.

Werder is coming to Athens to win and have a little revenge for the 3-1 home defeat earlier this season. They'll probably be missing Pasanen but Diego is back after serving his one match suspension.
Olympiakos will be without their captain Đorđević which is a serious blow for their offense. Since a draw is more than enough for the Greeks I don't think they'll be attacking like madman as their coach said in an interview.

Olympiakos has a very patient style of play. Waiting for the opponent to get casual and relaxed and then turning up the pace, shocking the opponent every now and then. They defend for much of the game but are very deadly when attacking.

Their main problem is the age of their players. It has cost them dearly against Real in Madrid. Around 75th minute they get tired and slow down merely covering their own half let alone attacking.

Werder needs to win desperately. That will leave them very vulnerable at the back and with Pasanen out for this match Thomas Schaaf will have to think of a way to close the gap in his defense. Offensively they have no worries and it will be business as usual with one exception. The fanatical Olympiakos supporters will be making huge noise and of course it won't be pleasant coming to the stadium. Oly players will be under immense pressure as well, and that's why I think this will be a very ugly game with a lot of mistakes. Both teams will be very nervous and that's never good.

Under 2.5 is a good bet with good odds.

My opinion of course.

[SaberBlade83]

Originally Posted by Toronto_Mike

Mate, you cannot count on "Last Year" different squads, different coaches, different scenario.

what i'm saying is, if you are going to play Valencia +0.75 you might as well just pound the draw because there is very very very little percentage that Chelsea will lose this game. Valencia winning will be a shock, they are just smashed right now. Of course Chelsea don't really see any reason to go all out. Its one thing for Valencia to "have to win" and "can win". valencia are desperate and backing them at any price is just dangerous when they have yet to win a game in their last 4.

GL though, anything can happen. I just feel Schalke have a better opportunity to qualify than Valencia.

But he played on the AH, which means he wins if it ends in a draw and has more security should Chelsea win by a goal (half stake back). Don't think it's such a bad bet really. It doesn't seem to matter who is in charge of Chelsea, they never appears to do more than is needed.

It's a very open game I think, I feel Chelsea may drop a couple of points here as they will likely be more focused on the weekend. But at the same time, I don't think they will want to loose at home, considering their record there. Without Drogba I don't think Chelsea is anything special really, they are still a world class team but without the cutting edge up front. Of course whoever get to play tonight may want to impress, especially if they aren't a regular in the side. My first thought is Chelsea win 1-0 or draw 0-0/1-1. Chelsea hardly ever completes a AH in my experience.

[Nikola]

Marseille - Liverpool

I'm going to take the over 2.5 here on betfair @2.38
The odds seem great, also both teams are in this for the win, and I read in the news that rafa said they will be attacking and so did one of the marseille's players (cant remember which one exactly). Liverpool plays with a lot of goals lately, so I can't see this being an under 2.5
Just in case, I will wait till the start of the game to see the lineups and if it's an attacking kind of game place a 8/10 bet on an over.

[KoSTeBeK]

chelsea s odds raise to 1.95 in some markets...can anyone say who is missing today @chelsea side??

[cluelessG]

Originally Posted by australian_punter

10/10 Liverpool +0.5 @ 1.35

Liverpool have always preformed well under pressure in the Champions league. And i think the very worst case senario here would be a draw for the reds.

to PL! From my point of view, if you believe that the Reds will perform well, the value is in the away win , not in +0.5. Because the draw is probably no good for Liverpool and they will push for a win at the end, opening space for French counters. Not saying that a draw is not possible but I can't see value in +0.5 for Liverpool.

[blackcrow]

Porto -1 (EH)
While a draw would be enought for Porto to go through, a win here would ensure top spot in the group. They are unbeaten at home for the last two years of the CL. Besiktas have little to play for as they can't progress as at all. They come to Portugal with a number of injuries and a poor away record in the CL.

Liverpool -1 (EH)
Must win game for Liverpool, and with the claibre of players they have, they should win this well. Last time at home to Besiktas they demonstrated how good they can be when they had to, and this time they will not underestimate Marseille like they did at Anfield. Alot is riding on this game and look to Gerrard, as he normally does, to drive his team to victory in such an important game

Olympiakos over 2.5
In each of their 5 games, Bremen have gone over as they know how to score but concede also. Olympiakos has seen 3 of its 5 games go over but it too needs to win this game to progress, like Bremen, so look for goals to be scored as both teams like to play an attackking style

Real Madrid over 2.5
Of their 5 games, 4 of Real's games have gone over, especially their 2 home games. The same with Lazio in that 4 of their 5 games have gone over while one of the away games went over while the other had both teams scoring for it to go under. Both teams need to win if they want ot progress, so look to an attacking game form both sides

[Alcoholic]

Shalke to me seem the banker. They almost beat a full out Chelsea at home, they beat Rosenborg 0-2 in Trondheim. A win here wil send em through for the 1st time and Rosenborg into the Uefa Cup. Porto look good too. Dont think they wil be looking for a draw.

[warumnix]

Originally Posted by KoSTeBeK

chelsea s odds raise to 1.95 in some markets...can anyone say who is missing today @chelsea side??

drogba is out and chelsea side has no obligation to win.

[Alcoholic]

Liverpool is deffinately a high risk bet, but I do think they have the power to win in MArseille. The weekend defeat against Reading, shows they have their minds on this game, and the pressure is on. Medium/Low stakes on liverpool for me. Not risking the bank

[ScottishBhoy87]

Originally Posted by blackcrow

Porto -1 (EH)
While a draw would be enought for Porto to go through, a win here would ensure top spot in the group. They are unbeaten at home for the last two years of the CL. Besiktas have little to play for as they can't progress as at all. They come to Portugal with a number of injuries and a poor away record in the CL.

Liverpool -1 (EH)
Must win game for Liverpool, and with the claibre of players they have, they should win this well. Last time at home to Besiktas they demonstrated how good they can be when they had to, and this time they will not underestimate Marseille like they did at Anfield. Alot is riding on this game and look to Gerrard, as he normally does, to drive his team to victory in such an important game

Olympiakos over 2.5
In each of their 5 games, Bremen have gone over as they know how to score but concede also. Olympiakos has seen 3 of its 5 games go over but it too needs to win this game to progress, like Bremen, so look for goals to be scored as both teams like to play an attackking style

Real Madrid over 2.5
Of their 5 games, 4 of Real's games have gone over, especially their 2 home games. The same with Lazio in that 4 of their 5 games have gone over while one of the away games went over while the other had both teams scoring for it to go under. Both teams need to win if they want ot progress, so look to an attacking game form both sides

Certainly agree with you here mate on your two overs!, Real and Werder are two teams whom know how to score and I would fancy them both over 2.5 normally, but given the cirumstances that all 4 teams need to win to qualify, and also the Olympiakos and Lazio also know where the net is, I think there is strong pissibility this will come through

All the best

[australian_punter]

Originally Posted by cluelessG

to PL! From my point of view, if you believe that the Reds will perform well, the value is in the away win , not in +0.5. Because the draw is probably no good for Liverpool and they will push for a win at the end, opening space for French counters. Not saying that a draw is not possible but I can't see value in +0.5 for Liverpool.

Thankyou for your warm welcome
Thankyou for your input, however my bet is already on and with a max stake at risk +0.5 is all i'm willing to risk at the moment

Also i must add to my other bets.

2/10 units halftime correct score (chelsea game) 0-0 @2.90
2/10 units OVER 3.5 goals (real madrid game) @2.88
2/10 units haltime correct score (real madrid game) 2-0 @7.80
2/10 untis halftime correct score (real madrid game) 2-1 @17.50
2/10 units STEVEN GERRARD to score at anytime @3.70

These are just some little teasers i have put on.

[Matty]

Any views on Schalke Vs Rosenborg? Obviously the home team needs a victory to progress, and even though their domestic from has been poor - surely they can blow away Rosenborg here. Schalke won fairly comfortably away in Trondheim 2-0, and have a squad that is far superior to that of their rivals. Rosenborg are now 6 weeks into their post season, and while it could be argued that they are well rested, they also lack match practive which was emphasised by their demolition at the hands of Chelski. Schalke do have some players missing; Jermaine Jones (suspended), Gustavo Varela (muscle strain), Mathias Abel (cruciate ligament tear) Markus Heppke (shoulder injury) and Christian Pandler (muscle tear) - but they welcome back Levan Kobiashvili after a long lay off. The home team have a solid squad, and I expect them to wholly blow away a team lacking match fitness with far less quality.

PICK: 1X2: 1 @ 1.39 BETFAIR - 7/10

[modo]

Marseille v Liverpool

I remember when England team play with Croatia.All world bet England win and I took Croatia x2.People looks at me if Im fool
Today situacion is too.Why Marseille can lost?Last matches they played good.Victory at Lyon 2-1,last game win 2-0 with Monaco at home.Return Nasri.Marseille dont play in higher stage in CL?Funny.

My bet today:Marseille 1x