Champions League - 28th November

[Jonesy Knows]

Liverpool are in a must win situation this evening, no less than a win will almost certainly spell an end of this years Champions League Campaign.
There is also a lot of unrest between the Liverpool heirarchy and if we are led to believe it, Benitez is a dead man walking!
All this unrest stems from the fact that some of the funding for Liverpools stadium plans is being funded by American Owners Hicks and Gillet and the dollar is not in good shape at the moment, thus they are covering themselves by shelving any transfer plans for the club. Benitez got angry at this situation as he believes that the American owners have not contributed enough transfer funds based on the income the club recouped from selling of players, getting to last seasons Champions League Final and TV revenue. As a way of justifying their financial backing the American owners have stated that they have given Benitez enough support through the acquisition of Torres, Babel and Benayoun and that this should be enough for Liverpool to achieve success with and as a result they have given Rick Parry the sole job of negotiating for any future transfers.
Benitez is angry at this situation and has publicly aired his views stating the American owners don't understand the transfer window and that it is not a case of going out and spending more cash on transfers, however quite the opposite in that players who are free agents such as AC Milans' Kakha Kaladze, Liverpool will lose out on.
There will be plenty said before the American owners come over next month to discuss the situation with Benitez, in the media however I think Benitez will now be determined that he is the man to take Liverpool forward by getting the results that make his position more concrete.
Liverpool players are focussed on the job in hand here this evening and I cannot see them not winning this game for Benitez! The players want Benitez! The fans want Benitez! and what we will see here is a determined display from Liverpool resulting in a win!

[numnut]

Originally Posted by Jigsaw.ro

Celtic vs. Shakhtar: 1X: don't think I have to write much: Celtic is a strong team at home and trash on the road. Plus, they have a good chance of ending the group stage on second place... which would be a great performance for them.

have to agree with you, Celtic is a good bet, especially in a multi but i cant think of who else to bet, maybe Liverpool.

edit: Celtic + Liverpool multi, gives 2.71 sounds pretty good to me

[aliando]

Originally Posted by mpok

Only thing that i really like is Valencia/Schalke OVER 2.5 small bet.

why? please give reasoning behind your picks.

Originally Posted by Jigsaw.ro

Whattup, guys? First post and a combo I'll try today...

Rosenborg vs. Chelsea: 1X: Ok, let's face it: Rosenborg is the most pleasant surprise this season. And I'm not saying this because they defeated the inconstant Valencia twice, but because they know how to approach most games and they can be dangerous to any team. Plus, the context of today's game is good for them: the players are better rested than those of Chelsea; the weather suits them better; Chelsea will probably be rather relaxed, since a draw here is fine: the last game is at home against Valencia. Also, I've read thatCarvalho, Cech and Ferreira are out for Chelsea.

Celtic vs. Shakhtar: 1X: don't think I have to write much: Celtic is a strong team at home and trash on the road. Plus, they have a good chance of ending the group stage on second place... which would be a great performance for them.

Benfica vs. Milan: X2: this is tricky, considering the guests will be satisfied with a draw. Also, Benfica should think of the game against Porto as well, while Milan will have a clash with Juventus. Inzaghi won't play, but I have a feeling that, if Benfica should decide for an attacking approach, Milan will show what counter attacks can do. So, a cautious Benfica (that's what I expect) and a Milan that's satisfied with a draw... I don't see the home side taking more than one point.

to PL jigsaw!



betfair multiples for me a bit of a lay for tonight. Round 4 of the champions league is as good as knockout stage for many now, and teams cannot afford to drop points which should see more predicability

Liverpool are in do or die mode - 8-0 vs besiktas shows their intent and they dont lose at home in europe lightly. Porto will come with 10 men behind the ball and hope for the counter attack, but are unlikley to hold liverpool back for 90 mins. Its big money losses if liverpool go out, and with the recent problems between rafa and the americans, rafa cannot afford to lose this. Whether Porto can hold on for the draw ois another matter...

Chelsea travel to norway under new management from their embarressing home draw on the opening night. Whilst chelsea have remained unbeaten, rosenborg have taken second spot with victories over valencia - however, this is not the same valencia team of a few years ago and the chelsea game came at a bad time for the londoners. Chelsea should take this match by a clear goal or two.

group c is the group of draws with weder exempt so far. a point tonight will suffice for madrid who should be able to at least get a point off lazio at home in the final game. weder have to win here to have any chance of still going through and this factor might just open up enough gaps for madrid to exploit. Draw most probable result here, other wise madrid to win.

Celtic face shaktar at home in a match that could decide 2nd place. with shaktar facing benfica at home and celtic travelling to the san siro in the final stage, this is celtics only real hope of getting the 3 points they'll most likley need. again, shaktar aare likley to come and park the bus in front of goal, and whilst celtic have a formidable home record in europe, they will still have to score.

betfair multiples are offering, imo, a generous estimated odds of 2.23 for chelsea, liverpool, madrid and celtic not to lose. I'll take that with 5 points.

[aliando]

Originally Posted by nastro 1888

I think crucially the improved performances of Lee Naylor and John Kennedy in defence stand us in better shape than maybe a month ago. Shakhtar I'd reckon need a point to through, unless we do something in Milan ( you know how we are formidable away from home in europe like.. ) or Shakhtar lose to benfica - cant see too many goals on wednesday with regard to my above thoughts although we raise our game in these matches by 10% its the best home record of any team in Europe and is no coincidence. JVofH scoring at the weekend hopefully gives him some renewed confidence as hes been piss-poor ( even before his injury ) Nakamuro will likely miss out although we seem to be playing ok without him. Aiden McGeady is one of the form players throughout Europe right now M.O.T.M again on saturday. Not sure how Artur Boruc is injured himself pre-match on saturday and Mark Brown was in goal, cant say this lad fills me with confidence.

prediction

Celtic 1-0 Shakhtar

boruc expected to play in goal for celtic and given the improvement in defence and boruc's return, i've also had a small bet on betfair for celtic to keep a clean sheet, which is surely overpriced at 2.52?

[blackcrow]

Rosenborg unde 2.5
Rosenborg have been a surprise packet in this group and will pose a further challenge to Chelsea. To make matters worse for the blues, they will be playing on a rock hard icy pitch which should make it even harder for them to play their natural game. Too many mistakes in this game to see many chances created and goals for that matter

Liverpool -1 (EH)
Liverpool in a must win game should win this by a couple of goals before a huge crowd at Anfield. Liverpool are a team that thrives on the pressure in a must win situation and the very good win at Newcastle should help their confidence coming into this game. Porto don't really need to worry about this game so all the focus is on Liverpool, and they should have the will to win this by a couple of goals

Lazio over 2.5
Both of Lazio's 2 home games and Olympiacos' 2 away games have gone over as both teams always look to get score goals. Both teams need a win here and will create chances and hence goals

[MartyMcG_1967]

Originally Posted by aliando

boruc expected to play in goal for celtic and given the improvement in defence and boruc's return, i've also had a small bet on betfair for celtic to keep a clean sheet, which is surely overpriced at 2.52?

It is a big price considering we kept clean sheets in our 4 CL ties at home last season and only a joke penalty for Milan and Pavyluchenko have breached our rearguard this season. However, im a bit worried about tonight, Shakhtar will be a real threat- they cut us open time and time again in the first half in Donetsk, Brazilians Ilsinho, Jadson and Brandao will have to be well patrolled as will Croatian full back Srna who was a thorn in England's side.

2.52 is a big price but with so many creative players the Ukrainians will have a few chances.
Good luck though

[ScottishBhoy87]

Originally Posted by jopa1975

Be careful mate with your bet in Lazio. Olympiakos plays well in Europe away from home. The value is in the away win in my opinion, actually DNB @ 3.40 around. I have already placed a 230 bet and I am thinking for 150 euros more.

Thanks mate will proabably retract my previous post then as that two people who have said Olympiakos will win!

[aliando]

Originally Posted by MartyMcG_1967

It is a big price considering we kept clean sheets in our 4 CL ties at home last season and only a joke penalty for Milan and Pavyluchenko have breached our rearguard this season. However, im a bit worried about tonight, Shakhtar will be a real threat- they cut us open time and time again in the first half in Donetsk, Brazilians Ilsinho, Jadson and Brandao will have to be well patrolled as will Croatian full back Srna who was a thorn in England's side.

2.52 is a big price but with so many creative players the Ukrainians will have a few chances.
Good luck though

cheers mate - banking on celtics ability to be jeckyll and hyde in europe. seems like the best teams and players struggle there, so hopefully donetsk will too

[numnut]

last night, only 2 home teams did not win, Lyon DREW with barca, and psv WON at CSKA. And i think last group round, HOME won most as well.

so i think its good to bet on HOME winners

one reason i think Chelsea and Madrid are games hard not safe to bet on.

any one agree?

[danbrujto]

I took Zigoto's pick (subscribed to your tips mate),because i agree with the reasoning and for other reasons too....no time to think to other games,and 'cause i'm from Italy and Inter supporter so easy to know why i choose Benfica

[Carl]

LIVERPOOL
Last six: WWWDWD
Last six at home: WWWDDL

PORTO
Last six: WDWDWD
Last six at home: DDWWWW

A display to match the 8-0 trouncing of the Turkish side earlier this month would certainly give Benitez a much-needed boost.
What he doesn't need is a repeat of the dire 1-1 draw at Porto in the opening group match.
Porto tops Group A with eight points, followed by Marseille with seven, Liverpool with four and Besiktas with three.

Liverpool plays at Marseille next month.Benitez's cause has been further hindered by Liverpool's position in the Premier League. Despite being undefeated in the league so far, the Reds are only fifth, six points behind leader Arsenal.

In contrast, Porto has been top of the Portuguese league since the opening round and currently has a four-point lead. Argentine striker Lisandro Lopez has scored half of Porto's 20 league goals this season.
Pedro Emanuel, who returned for last weekend's 2-0 win over Setubal after a three-month layoff with an ankle injury, should pair up in central defense with Bruno Alves.
A draw will take Porto into the last 16.

• In three meetings, Porto have failed to beat Liverpool, but have managed two draws (1-1 in the home leg of this tie and 0-0 in 2001) and one loss (2-0 at Anfield in 2001).
• In their previous twelve games against Portuguese opposition, Liverpool have lost just three times and always to Benfica: away in 1984 and both home and away to Benfica in the last sixteen of the 2005/06 campaign.
• The Benfica defeat was their only home loss to a Portuguese side. The only other time the Reds have dropped points to Portuguese opposition was in 2000/01, when Boavista drew 1-1.
• Porto are undefeated away from home this season, and have only dropped points once (against Estrela Amadora in the league).

Liverpool 2 Porto 1. I like the look of Draw/Liverpool HT/FT result @ 4.50 with Blue Sq Ladbrokes Skybet

[impressivegol]

celtic's home record in Europe speaks for itself and now they have must-win situation essentially. extra fire may be lit for Celtic players as well, after Shaktar's manager said Celtic was lucky in the wins vs. Benfica and Milan.
Home win for me. maybe a double with Liverpool.

[tiphunter]

Originally Posted by aliando

boruc expected to play in goal for celtic and given the improvement in defence and boruc's return, i've also had a small bet on betfair for celtic to keep a clean sheet, which is surely overpriced at 2.52?

Is there any doubts or are they 100% certain he'll play?

[Bossie13]

Originally Posted by nicko

@ Bossie13 - Hope you won't see this as lecturing, but in your place I would consider changing your bet somehow. I mean in case of a draw you are winning both ways, the double chance and the straight bet x, with 12 units staked, which would be excellent. But in case of an away win at 1,22 for a double chance on Real, again with 12 units, altogether it is some units lost. If you are leaning toward Real, than for sure you can find better options, some AH or DNB? IF the draw is your choice then 3/10 on the draw only is good enough. Or raise it to 4/10 - 5/10, which will save you 7 or 8 units for another bet ?
Don't get me wrong, I am not being rude. I am only trying to find better option for myself by discussing other people's picks
Good luck

Nicko, no problem at all. Thanks for the intrestings explanation.
When i gave something more than 7/10 it means that i play this with much money because then 8-9 or10/10 are my "bankers" for the weekend/midweek. But with stakes like here 1.22 i put them in my main combo. The draw for tonight i gave 3/10 such things i play single or when i have some money left i put them in a 3 out of 5 (or something like that)
Once again thanks for your reply
Good luck tonight
For me this is an almost no bet night, maybe i place some small things on benfica 1X in combo with liverpool and, like lot of you here suggest, Celtic (altough i fear shaktor a lot; they played saturday with the break on ,i saw the game and made my mind up not to bet on celtic game because i don't trust shaktor) but i 've got confidence in all your opinions.

[MartinJB12]

Originally Posted by tiphunter

Is there any doubts or are they 100% certain he'll play?

Not 100% as of yet mate, but Big Artur has said himself he should be fine to play and he changed with the squad yesterday, would be a massive shock if the big man wasnt between the stick tonight. Just hope he keeps a clean sheet for us. Starting to get worried about this one the closer I get to ko. Huge game for us tonight, I know I posted earlier saying that I cant believe we are so close to evens etc but the closer to the game I get the more I remember how good an outfit shaktar are and how they destroyed us in the first 20 mins on matchday 1. Hopefully we can get the result we need and should be a great game but one things for certain, shaktar are without question a good enough side to nick at least the point they need tonight. Lets hope they don't.

MON THE HOOPS!!!

[nicko]

I think Liverpool will grab all three points tonight, BUT betting against Porto with their killer-counters and perfectly organised zone defence with odds for home win 1,40-1,50 is only good in a combo. The Besiktas game was good, but only days before it Marseille took all 3 points. Very lucky it was, true , but Liverpool clearly struggled in that game to create chances. At these odds for L'pool I am simply not prepared to wait for 90 mins for a winner like it happened last night with Man U. Good luck to everyone with money on the home win, no bet for me. Will consider this game later for an acca.
My main bet for tonight is still the Over in Bremen, slept with the idea and no matter how likely the draw looks as of the Real approach to the game, and no matter how crippled Werder is with important missings it looks good. See my previous post for reasoning.
The game in Norway is another no bet for me. Read some posts here who tend to underestimate the Rosenborg wins over Valencia ? Maybe the logic is that if Schalke won there, Chelsea certainly will as well? Most probably, but both teams will be happy with a draw, heavy snowfall in the region recently, two wins over Valencia........No bet, odds for away win are a joke.
Two games I haven't made up my mind on yet, those in Istanbul and Valencia, will post here later. Still in both games I fancy betting on number of cards. Valencia's disciplinary record in Europe is notorious, every ref there is aware of that fight with Inter last year. Schalke step on the pitch with a yellow card for Bordon, so a 3/10 stake for me on Over 4,5 cards at 1,66 from bet365 looks good.
The same bet for me in Istanbul, certainly a decider game for both teams, with some quick-tempered players and a ref from Spain ( Cantalejo ) where cards are flying for 90 mins. Odds are 1,61 and I will put both games in a card-combo as well.
Fancy Overs in both Lazio and Celtic games. Some good reasoning here re the game in Glasgow so I am leaning toward more goals not because I would be fed up with another 1-0 Celtic win, but because the Ukranians have good strikers. Castillo is back, hope the Italian plays too. As of Lazio some posts here convinced my that both teams can score, and since the home win is more likely, the Over looks a logical choice.
Need to listen to some other opinions, will post again.

[torres09]

hi fellow punters! im new here and i wana share my tips. firstly, i expect a goal rush at anfield with both side playing to win. liverpool is desperate to win this in order to stay in the CL. with their good recent form, i expect another high scoring game! so im putting a huge confident bet on liverpool-porto over 2.25. however, liverpool at -1.25 does not look confident enough for me to go thru. so im avoiding that. i predict the final scoreline to be 2-1 to liverpool. celtic, as many fellow punters have said are rock solid at home turf. shak stand no chance against them in my opinion. hence, im going for a celtic -0.25. confident bet. lastly, im also backing the outcome of rosenborg-chelsea to be under 2.25. expect a low scoring game. it is nvr easy to go head on against rosenborg at home turf. they defeated valencia on both occasions home and away. but it could go either way. so im playing for a under as chelsea will be wary of the strength of the rosens!

[Aphobos]

Crap day yesterday for me so hoping for better days. 3 for me tonight. I might take Celtic too but as usual I worry when so many are backing at good odds.

Besiktas v Marseille, Marseille (0) @5/6 Skybet
A vital game for the home side coming off the back of that humiliating 0:8 defeat at Anfield. If the Turkish side fail to win here then they can forget it and a defeat would all but see them out of Europe altogether depending on what happens at Anfield. It must be remembered thoguh that they did beat Liverpool at home where they were strong at the time but that 2:1 win was followed by a run of 5 winless games of which 4 were straight defeats in a row. They have eneded that now though with an away win in the league at the weekend which will give them confidence.
A draw here would not be a bad result for Marseille as that would ensure they would go into the last game in second place only needing another draw to progress. For that reason they should keep it tight but I still think they can nick something here. My reasons are that Eric Gerets knows the opposition and knows Turkish football- he knows how to set up here. He also has a good head to head record against the Besiktas manager having not lost in the 5 previous meetings in Turkish football. Besiktas also have a number of injuries at the back though I am not certain how important they are.
Overs was a possible bet here. I expect the home side to score in their search for a win and in all 4 of Marseille's games so far they have scored- but have only conceded 3 goals which put me off that bet.

Benfica v Milan, Milan @5/4 Bet365
The onus is well and truely on Benfica who have started getting it together in the league but yet to impress at this level this season. A single win over Celtic in a game that could really have gone either way remains their only points and tonight they must step it up a level for the visit of Milan. As shown at Celtic Park Milan can be beaten but I think to beat Milan you have to get them early or when they have already qualified- neither of which apply here. While Milan stutter along in Serie a they have picked it up in the Champions League since losing to Celtic with emphatic wins over Shakhtar. The away leg was very impressive as I thought that could be a banana skin for them.
Benfica no doubt will have to go for it tonight but I think the experienced Milan side will be able to pick them off. Benfica need this to stay in while a win guarantees Milan's progress- though if there is a winner at Celtic Park a draw will do them. Milan for me look better equipped for the job here. Benfica have only a single goal so far in the competition and while they are making chances they can't seem to put them away. When the chips are down and there is a job to be done Milan usually go out and do it so at these odds I think they are worth backing tonight.

Liverpool v Porto, Liverpool -1ah @7/10 Ladbrokes
This is a must win for Benitez and whatever problems he has with the club he will put the side for tonight and get down to business. At this level Benitez has a proven track record of getting it right and I expect no different tonight. He has a real luxury of riches to choose from and I feel he will pick the right side tonight to take all 3 points here. I don't see a repeat of what happened against Besiktas but I think the win will be emphatic in front of a packed Anfield. Porto are no mugs and will be looking to maintain their unbeaten record which would see them progress tonight. This though is the big one for Liverpool which I feel will make or break their season in Europe.

[dougie donnelly]

Only one bet for me tonight that is Shakhtar at Parkhead. They are available at 10/3 which for me is a steal. They completely murdered Celtic a few weeks ago and could have won by a cricket score. Celtic Park has been a fortress for a long time but they have to lose sometime and I fancy it to be tonight. Shakhtar are quick and can cause the Celtic defence problems, I disagree with the posts re their defence being better and can see them losing by a couple of goals. Might also have a nibble on the bookings.

30pts Shakhtar good luck all

[bowles10]

i seem to recall that Real Madrid have a shocking record in Gernmany in the CL, havent got the stats but will take a 1X on Werder Bremen tonight with home advantage.