Swedish Superettan - 4 & 5/06

[Gandalf]

Wednesday 4 June 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Enköping SK v Jönköpings Södra (18:00BST)	2.46	3.45	3.05	102.42 %	Details »
Hide « Enköping SK v Jönköpings Södra
Falkenbergs FF v Mjällby AIF (18:00BST)	2.76	3.50	2.78	100.77 %	Details »
Hide « Falkenbergs FF v Mjällby AIF
IF Brommapojkarna v IK Sirius (18:00BST)	2.28	3.40	3.65	100.67 %	Details »
Hide « IF Brommapojkarna v IK Sirius
Qviding FIF v IF Limhamn Bunkeflo (18:00BST)	2.28	3.50	3.55	100.60 %	Details »
Hide « Qviding FIF v IF Limhamn Bunkeflo
Thursday 5 June 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Väsby United v Ängelholms FF (15:00BST)	2.31	3.55	3.30	101.76 %	Details »
Hide « Väsby United v Ängelholms FF
Assyriska FF v Åtvidabergs FF (18:00BST)	2.00	3.60	4.00	102.78 %	Details »
Hide « Assyriska FF v Åtvidabergs FF
BK Häcken v Örgryte IS (18:00BST)	2.18	3.60	3.60	101.43 %	Details »
Hide « BK Häcken v Örgryte IS
Landskrona BoIS v Degerfors IF (18:00BST)	1.61	4.00	6.20	103.03 %	Details »

[Gandalf]

Falkenbergs FF vs Mjällby AIF

A pretty match with FFF which receives MAIF. The match is worth because the two teams are powerful: FFF didn't lose at home and neither MAIF in away games. And, in matter of goals, FFF on its ground with results more than convincing:
Falkenbergs FF 3:3 Atvidabergs FF
Falkenbergs FF 2:0 Bunkeflo IF
Falkenbergs FF 2:1 Sirius IK
Falkenbergs FF 2:0 Brommapojkarna IF

One cannot either make the dead end on the results of MAIF in away games :
Angelholm 1:1 Mjällby
Atvidabergs FF 0:1 Mjällby
Bunkeflo IF 1:6 Mjällby
Sirius 1:1 Mjällby

And the history between the two teams is hot:
Mjällby 1:2 Falkenbergs FF 27.10.2007
Falkenbergs FF 0:3 Mjällby 16.07.2007
Falkenbergs FF 0:3 Mjällby 21.10.2006
Mjällby 0:3 Falkenbergs FF 02.07.2006
Falkenbergs FF 2:2 Mjällby 18.08.2005
Mjällby 2:3 Falkenbergs FF 08.05.2005

Now, I deliver here the extract which I translated of an analysis which reports the things extremely well and gives weighty arguments for a try on this match :

"Before: FFF vs. MAIF: Day' S for profit!
Tomorrow evening takes FF towards proficient table the fourth rank Mjällby AIFF one Falkenberg' S IP. FF has always difficultly for this TEAM one home ground, goal wins always the away ranges against MAIF. FF is in needs off has victory and comes hopefully to last extremely motivated in the tomorrow' S range.
(...)
The two last home match against MAIF has both stopped with 0-3 for away TEAM. Last time we took points against MAIF home was years 2005, then the range stopped 2-2 after goals off Patrik Lundgren and Marthin Möller. Mjällby has exactly ace FF only taken does not have one the two last ranges and has, like FF, only won one off the furnace last series ranges. This should mean that the tomorrow' S range becomes has tough entertainment where both teams is up after has victory in order to as in win series again.
(...)
Neither FF gold MAIF has sum exclusions in the tomorrow' S range."

Then here are, of the motivated teams, strong of offensive players of weight with the duel Johansson/Ekenberg in particular but they are not alone.

Mjällby never lost against Falkenbergs and I do not say that the things cannot change. Of instinct I will say that it is still a match for the visitors but respect for hosts considering their statistics at home and the wise bet seems to be on the number of goals, they met 6 times and 6 times one were entitled to many goals. I know that it is a minefield, here in 2nd Swedish Superettan but I cannot see another thing that a new match with 3 goals there above, the more so as the two teams will be full.
Sources:
http://www.svenskafans.com/fotboll/fff/…? id=240371
http://www.falkenbergsff.se/
http://www.maif.se/
http://www.svenskfotboll.se/t1sup.aspx?p=152185

Pick : over 2,5 @ 1.72 (Centrebet)

PS : Hello all. I apologize with my very bad English, i used a translator with my original French analyze and do my best to be clear.

[Gandalf]

Brommapojkarna vs IF Sirius FK

That there is worth another attempt, taking into account internet informations and tables analysis.

BP is badly, one is very far from the account on the results, that did not really arrange itself with the lost against the last of the class, Enköping, on the last match (0-1). Will the buildings thus connect a third match of sharp at home but in which state? Here is the list of the players:
Benny Lekström, Kristoffer Nordfeldt, Markus Karlsson, Stefan Bergtoft, Kim Odelius, Richard Henriksson, Joakim Hagernäs, Joakim Runnemo, Arash Talebinejad, Philip Haglund, Pär Asp, Albin Ekdal, Christer Youssef, max Clauss, Axel Johansson, James Frempong, John Guidetti
They were already badly in point taking into account the number of wounded players and Michael Almebäck being taken a red card, that makes them a defender of less on this blow. The team is in addition always without many offensive players : Chhadeh, Nilsson and so on.. The players remaining are rather young with some more experienced players. Moreover, the disaffection of the public currently seems large: only 684 supps come to attend the last meeting in small Grimsta Stadium. It does not make much.

Sirius goes better after the second success obtained on Enköping (still them), on the score of 2-1. Finally, it was nevertheless close for me. But there nevertheless was this 'light' from Hoch (excellent 2007 striker for the team) (1-0 in 27th) and Gerndt signed the second (2-0 in 55') with the result that it finds better striker of the team with 4 goals in all. In which state are they?
Milan Barjaktarevic, Coils Lidström, Erik Tengroth, Martin Ekström, Jonas Lundmark, Daniel Hoch, Pierre Gallo, Alexander Gerndt, Gustaf Segerström, Mani Tourang, Daniel Fernberg, Kim Skoglund, Fredrik Olsson, Markus Palmqvist, Alexander García, Petter Österberg
There is best on the players also since it is the return of Mani Tourang in the team and of new blood also since the trainer aligns Palmqvist. Thus a little “new look” for these two modifications, but not badly final and that resembles nevertheless something of more solid.

I want to believe that, Sirius having tasted with victory, they will want more. In all the cases, BP appears super fragile with with many players out, without effective attack and an approximate defense. Sirius is not clear either but seems a more effective party in attack. Moreover it is a first between these two teams which never clashed and on the basis of there, obviously one cannot make of BP the favourites of the match. However, it is what one does the bookmakers.

Dared bet, if BP still lost it would be a big blow for them. But what, 5 scored goals only, the weakest attack of the division and, all in all, alarming news about the team. The account is good, that is enough for me to try a small bet with nice odds.

-> IK Sirius @ 3.20 (Stan James)

PS : Apologize again for bad english

[G:G]

Don't excuse yourself, Gandalf, great work with your picks.

I agree about Sirius, definately a good value in that odds, but I'd go for dnb, the way I see it there's a high % for X in this match. I'm still not confident in Sirius, sure they won last match, but it was vs strugglers Enköping and they really had to fight hard for the win.

Falkenberg - Mjällby: Mjällby plays a very tight and defensive minded game on the road, 3/4 games so far ended under, my suggested bet is Mjällby dnb with low stakes, Mjällby might very well get their awaytactics to work once more and snatch a win.

[Gandalf]

Thanks for your help G:G

Hope Falkenbergs will score first and will score early in match. But you're right, solid defensive performances for Mjällby in away matchs.

I was tempted by Jönköpings too but i don't know.. Midfield Backman is out but striker Vilkmäe is back and will boost Jönkö attack. Jönköping with a very good defense it seems to me : Neither Häcken, Assyriska, Landskrona, Falkenbergs could take them out.

Difficult to say what Enkopings will do : struggling team but they score goals in each match. And they need a victory on Enavallen..

Maybe open match ? defensive line of ESK is not very efficient with 20 goals against in 9 matchs and 3 goals against per match in Enavallen.

Hard to say, maybe no bet is safer.

[george45]

hello G;G what do you think about Qviding -Bunkeflo
thank you

[G:G]

Gandalf: Some very interesting thoughts about Enköping - Jönköping there, Enköping now in the middle of a crizis, they must start to get points soon, no homewin so far is very, very poor. Reports say that Enköping have performed ok on many occasions, but that doesn't help as long as they don't win. Jönköping, as you say, with a very solid defence, and imo looking to be on the way up in form, won vs Qviding in their latest match and got a point away vs both Häcken and Landskrona. Tough match this one, no bet my propable choice, but if I would place a bet I'd go for Jönköping dnb. I really can't say anything about over/under, I'd say under considering Jönköping's record, but odds are too short imo.


george45: Can't say much, looks like a very open and tough match to predict, but Limhamn/B's recent results makes dnb at 2.50 look pretty interesting, maybe worth a small stake, I don't agree with the bookies about that %.

[george45]

thank you G;G
have a nice day

[Gandalf]

Great...

[nicko]

Originally Posted by Gandalf

Great...

Preview was great, no need to be sorry, you should have seen some mine lately...
Been optimistic as I am will back Hacken tomorrow, last round they lost, being a man down most of the time, think they will hit back, and they are one of the teams to follow this season in the opinion of some friends. How true this is time will show, but they only missed Allsvenskan for an inch.
Both other games look like HW's to me too as of the league positions, though I am also tempted with the Over in Assyriska...

[G:G]

Originally Posted by Gandalf

Great...

Agree with Nicko, your previews was great, not your fault that Superettan is evil, it's almost the same story as last season, no team can be trusted. At least we had Norrköping last season, now there's no team that stands out.

I like Väsby and Assyriska today, two teams with more than a 50% chance to win imo. Väsby are underrated, Assyriska can play great football on the right day while Åtvidaberg looks to be slipping.
Häcken - ÖIS: Tough derbymatch in Göteborg, both teams need to bounce back from dissapointing results in the latest round, Häcken rightful favourites but the highest odds I can find is 2.19, a bit short imo. There's really not much between these teams, lets not forget that Häcken lost a couple of key players from last season without replacing them with the same quality.

Landskrona should win, but considering their habit of failing in matches like these and Degerfors showing good form I won't go near odds like 1.60

[Gandalf]

Thanks Nico

I want to try again (), Interested in two matchs in fact :

Väsby vs Angelholms looks like an open match for me. I have some reasons :
- Two promoted teams in last part of the tables, enough unstable considering respective goal-average ;
- Väsby with full team, according to the official site and they score goals in each match since the first day of 2008 Superettan - They also take goals in each match with an approximative defensive play ;
- Local team in confidence after their away victory against Enköping and considering all their matchs, they fight hard in each of them : maybe not yet the level for the top of the division, but enough combativeness and will, especially at home ;
- About Angelholms, i can say the same things : newcoming, young and motivated team ;
- Angeholms attack is not the fact from one or two players : many players who scored goals (see http://www.svenskfotboll.se/t3supla....185&flid=25697) and i like it, because that shows a certain "frame of mind", a welded group and it is necessary to grant credit to it ;
- Also in confidence with a victory against Degerfors and a good one againt Mjällby whereas they were not favorite ;

In short, two teams which will seek a result, respective defenses are with "variable geometry" and there can be goals on this kind of match. Too much difficult in 1N2 at all events but they score and take goals relatively easily in first part of this championship.

Pick : over 2,5 @ 1.75 (Bet365)

Landskrona vs Degerfors

I'm certainly wrong here and not very confident, but i want to be sure about that, and i must see things as they are.

I don't agree at all with these odds and it seems to me that bookmakers are wrong with DIF odds.

OK, LBoIS did a very good first part and they score goals and goals but we are in first part of championship and i'm not sure with them because their last matches are not so clear, even if they beat Atvidabergs in last match : against Orgryte they lost and they showed some problems against Jönkö and Bunkeflo.

Today they will miss Matthias Eklund in middlefield, he's with the team since many years and it's certainly a big miss for local team. They will miss Jelecak too (striker with 4 goals) ; here is the troop :
Sebastian Karlsson, Peter Karlsson, Mikael Dahlgren, Linus Olsson, Andrew Kelly, Amar Muharemovic, Johan Heide, Linus Malmqvist, Robin Wikman, Ivo Pekalski, Charles Anderson, Jörgen Pettersson, Joakim Persson, Johan Persson, Pär Cederqvist, Calle Genberg, Alvedin Nezirovac.

Can't say it's not a nice offensive line with Genberg and Cederqvist, even if Cederqvist is not yet at same level than last year. They have potential for sure.

Degerfors, as usual, in clothing of the unpredictable team. But they get two good results with an away victory on MAIF (!) and another at home against Falkenbergs. I believe that it is necessary to be attentive with the signals from teams, and considering the last part of 2007 superettan where they "rush" and get victort after victory, it is necessary to pay attention to DIF, a team which did not change in-depth since last season : Hasani/Solberg/Garcia are hard workers on field, from time to time, they can do very good job but never know when, the whole team can do the better and the worst. In all facts, it's a "positive trend" now :-) Here is the team :
Simon Nurme, Christoffer Wiktorsson, Fredrik Holmberg, Magnus Tappert, Markus Karlsson, Christophe Lallet, Tobias Solberg, Andreas Holmberg, Mano Garcia, Sheptim Hasani, Dejan Godar, Johan Bertilsson, Jesper Fromholdt, Erik Nilsson, Mario Simunovic, Dejan Doslic, Kalle Norrbin, Andreas Gunnarsson.
Full team, since Wiktorsson and Karlsson are back.

Backing DIF is tempting me so much : odds are 7 to 1 (!) in Ekpekt book but looks like an 'impossible' bet in spite of my doubts about local team, they certainly don't give the match.

Need help from other tipsters for this one. Thanks

[kimera]

Nice write-ups Gandalf! Knowing you have entered one of the worst betting leagues in Northern Europe it sure is difficult to get it right. As long as your arguments are good, correct and understandable, I do choose to follow you. In this league however anything can happen so as nicko pointed out; no need to be stressed up, you got all the right things said!

Looking at your last thoughts, thinking Degerfors might be a very good one, the safest would probably be to ensure yourself and take it with some Ah bets, odds are quite tasty actually...

[Gandalf]

I want to thank you Kimera for 'reception' here, on Punters Lounge. I'm French and i do not have the practice of such help and welcome messages as here (not usual in French ones). Want to thanks Nico, G:G and all others punters of course :-)

To Nico : Be careful, Paulinho is out once again for Häcken derby and it's a blow for BKH attack : http://www.bkhacken.se/News/NewsView...rnalTeamIds=12. Sure they have ressources enough but ÖIS has been destroyed in their last home match. Don't know how they will react..

To Kimera : For Degerfors match, i finally pick X2 @ 2.55 (Expekt) with small stakes. Hope DIF will play it well.

[Football-Tipper]

Great write ups Gandalf and to punterslounge.

Took Vasby HT/FT @ 11/4, Like you pointed out both teams like to push forward and Vasby @ home should hold the advantage

Good Luck with your picks mate

Football Tipper

[G:G]

Paulinho's absence is mentioned as a blow before every game, he has only played one game so far this season, stats zero goals and zero assists. Häcken would be stronger with him, but it's not a new thing for them to handle.

I agree about Degerfors X2, good value, but small stake for me. My other bets for today are Väsby -0.25 @ 1.98 and Assyriska @ 1.98.

EDIT: Football-Tipper made me realize that I haven't welcomed you to PL, Gandalf, so . Very nice with another member who takes interest in this part of the football world!

[nicko]

Guys, everyone is so convincing about Vasby, couldn't resist tailing with medium stakes, though I must admit I know nothing of both teams.
@ both MEMBERS AND VISITORS - this pick is only based on other peoples' view, so do not take it into consideration, I simply trust the reasoning above, at my own risk
Good luck all

[nicko]

Originally Posted by nicko

Guys, everyone is so convincing about Vasby, couldn't resist tailing with medium stakes, though I must admit I know nothing of both teams.
@ both MEMBERS AND VISITORS - this pick is only based on other peoples' view, so do not take it into consideration, I simply trust the reasoning above, at my own risk
Good luck all

for Hacken to save my day...........

[DJ]

Well amazingly it's 0-0 at almost half time for Hacken! I'd love to say that my bet of over 1.5 goals is fantastically well, but unfortunately it's going as well as a fish would entered in to a break dancing contest wearing ice skates and told that really they are a giraffe called Bob.

[nicko]

Originally Posted by DJ

Well amazingly it's 0-0 at almost half time for Hacken! I'd love to say that my bet of over 1.5 goals is fantastically well, but unfortunately it's going as well as a fish would entered in to a break dancing contest wearing ice skates and told that really they are a giraffe called Bob.

I guess that does it for you, after 54 mins Fingers crossed for another Hacken goal............