Sweden, lower leauges midweek

[G:G]

Div.1 Norra, BK Forward- Assyriska, 19/6:

BK Forward + 0.75 @ 1.98 (Pinnacle)
This is a match between 4th placed Forward and 1st placed Assyriska, and I think that Assyriska are heavily overrated by the bookies now, so thats why I post this today already. Forward have performed very well lately, four straight wins, and 4-1-0 last five matches, goaldifference 13-2. These matches have been vs lesser teams than Assyriska, but still, its a great record. Assyriska are favourites to win this leauge, and they have performed accordingly, 8-2-0 20-4, stats that impress and surely Assyriska will be at the top ethe entire season. Lately Assyriska haven't impressed much though, last match was a close 2-1 win away to Boden, a team that have been out of form for quite a while. The awaymatch before that was 1-1 away to 11th placed Västerås SK, but that result was actually flattering for Assyriska, VSK reported the better team even by Assyriska's fansite. Assyriska have also lost at home, 1-2, to 8th placed Syrianska recently. I think that Forward will give Assyriska a very tough match, and although Assyriska are favourites, they can't be considered huge favourites imo, so I have also tried 1X @ 2.26, Forward dnb @ 3.88 and Forward @ 4.95.

Västerås SK - Skiljebo SK

Västerås -1.25 @ 1.96 (Pinnacle)

This bet may look crazy when you look at the teams position in the table and form:
7. Skiljebo 4-2-4 13-15 14 pts
11. VSK 3-3-4 13-13 12 pts.
The reason I back VSK to win with hcp is that I still rank VSK as a team for top 4, they have a good enough line up, and there has ben signs, albeit small ones, of them actually playing up to their potential. Skiljebo are newcomers, have started well as newcomers often do, but fell apart at gome to Valsta/S last match, lost 2-4, after playing really poor with a confused defence. Skiljebo will mis a couple of players in this match, two suspended, but I don't back VSK because of that, my reason is that if VSK can come close to 100% in this one, a two goal win looks very reachable.

[Roskos]

Hi G:G,
Initially I intend to back Assyriska, but after read your post I get a bit of afraid for this bet, but right now I see that Pinnacle slashed their price for BK Forward to 2.02 (AH +1/2) and have Assyriska at 1.909.

I have read that Assyriska have only 16 players available for this game, but among them I see Dennis Östlundh (3 goals in last 4), Andreas Haddad (4 goals until now), Aluspah Brewah (1 goal in 2 games). Also I read that their coach is good one and lead Enköping to Allsvenska few years ago. They have best defense in the division. In away games are: 3-2-0 6-3, the only team with no loss.
BK Forward has Jiloan Hamad with 6 goals until now, but 4 of them were against two weak sides in last two games (Timra - worst defense in away games; Umea - worst defense in home games). They have also 6 players with 2 goals each of them. They have performed quite well in home games: 3-1-1 12-3.
I would ask you how do you rate probability for Away and OVER in this game due to new circumstances (I mean Assyriska at 1.909)?

Thanks in advance.

[G:G]

Originally Posted by Roskos

Hi G:G,
Initially I intend to back Assyriska, but after read your post I get a bit of afraid for this bet, but right now I see that Pinnacle slashed their price for BK Forward to 2.02 (AH +1/2) and have Assyriska at 1.909.

I have read that Assyriska have only 16 players available for this game, but among them I see Dennis Östlundh (3 goals in last 4), Andreas Haddad (4 goals until now), Aluspah Brewah (1 goal in 2 games). Also I read that their coach is good one and lead Enköping to Allsvenska few years ago. They have best defense in the division. In away games are: 3-2-0 6-3, the only team with no loss.
BK Forward has Jiloan Hamad with 6 goals until now, but 4 of them were against two weak sides in last two games (Timra - worst defense in away games; Umea - worst defense in home games). They have also 6 players with 2 goals each of them. They have performed quite well in home games: 3-1-1 12-3.
I would ask you how do you rate probability for Away and OVER in this game due to new circumstances (I mean Assyriska at 1.909)?

Thanks in advance.

Hi,

I have a kind of a hard time valuating over/under for this one. Assyriska play quite controlled away, 3-2-0 6-3 needs no explanation, Forward scores a lot, 3-1-1 12-3 at home, 13 goals scored last 4, but vs weaker teams than Assyriska of course. Forward's home matches vs strong teams (imo) have ended 2-0 vs Syrianska and 0-0 vs Valsta/Syrianska, but then again, I think Forward have much better form now, so maybe those can't be compared. Assyriska have met three strong teams away: Win vs Vasalund 1-0, 1-1 vs Väsby and Västerås. The stats points towards under, atm you can get under 2.5 @ 2.10, a value in that imo.

[milan-tifosi]

hey G:G.. know anything bout the hammarby-djurgården???

[Roskos]

Super estimation and excellent bets.

Cheers mate

[G:G]

BK Forward + 0.75 @ 1.98 (Pinnacle)
I think that Forward will give Assyriska a very tough match, and although Assyriska are favourites, they can't be considered huge favourites imo, so I have also tried 1X @ 2.26, Forward dnb @ 3.88 and Forward @ 4.95.

>>> 1-0 All bets in, 1.98, 2.26, 3.88 and 4.95

Västerås -1.25 @ 1.96 (Pinnacle) >>> 2-1, half stake lost

Tnx, Roskos, under worked fine too, great evening this.

[ninimika]

G:G YOU are the man,it's a pleasure to follow your picks,thnks to you its'$$$$

[G:G]

Originally Posted by ninimika

G:G YOU are the man,it's a pleasure to follow your picks,thnks to you its'$$$$

Thanks, nice to hear, but I dont expect an opportunity like Forward to show up in a long time


Div.2 M. Götaland, Tord - Sleipner, 20/6:

Sleipner @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Awayteam Sleipner, placed at 1st, have really got things to work now, won at home to Myresjö 5-1 last match, before that 3-0 vs at that time 2nd placed Motala away. Sleipner are suposed to be the best team in this leauge, and now they certainly show it. They will need to keep this momentum vs Tord, they are placed at 5th, but great at home: 4 1 0 13-6, also good form, 4 wins last 5 matches. Sleipner's the best away team also, 4 1 0 12-5 so far, and when I read matchreports and check stats I feel confident o give Sleipner more than 50% chance to win this one, however strong Tord may be at home, Slepiner looks to have a lot more quality.


Div.2 Ö.Svealand, Arameiska/S - Spårvägen:

Arameiska/S -2 @ 2.03 (Pinnacle)
1st placed Arameiska's homerecord: 5 0 0 17-6, last five matches: 5-0-0 18-4. Arameiska ranked as a huge favourite to win this leauge, and the stats show why. They play very attacking minded football, allows quite a few goals, but score enough to win with a margin. Spårvägen's a team in deep trouble, placed 10/12, with a defence that would be labeled sloppy to put it mildly, they have allowed 27 goals in 10 matches, they won their last match, but that was vs even weaker team Tyresö, 2-0. Spårvägen's away record is 0-1-4 2-16, and when I read the preview on ther fansite I feel comfortable with this high line, they will be happy with a loss with only three or four goals. I hope Arameiska/S wants to give their homecrowd a show before the summerbreak and find this line/odds ok. One important thing to notice is that goaldifference may be desisive in the end of the season, so Arameiska/S have a good opportunity to add to their lead in that way here, rather than taking it easy.


IFK Eskilstuna - Enskede

IFK Eskilstuna dnb @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)
This is a match bewteen two pretty poor teams, but I rank Eskilstuna ahead of Enskede atm, at least when they have homeadvantage on their side. Eskilstuna have a good homerecord, 2-3-0 13-10, Enskede a poor awayrecord: 0-1-4 3-9. Ensked got a severe kicking last match, lost 1-6 at home to IFK's local rival Eskilstuna City, Enskede still can't get things to work, they should be able to perform better, but it does not look like their situation will be better after this match, the break sure comes at the perfect time for Enskede. I ususally don't trust IFK with my money, but I see them as clear favourites today, so evens for dnb can't be left alone. Those who dont have Pinny can make their own dnb, but lower odds I think.


Akropolis - Eskilstuna City, 20/6:

Eskilstuna -0.25 @ 1.99 (Pinnacle)
Akropolis have lost their good form, 2-1-2 last five matches, lost away to Nyköpimg 3-5 previous round. City's moving in the opposite direction: 4 wins in a row, smashed Enskede away, 6-1 latest match. Akropolis havent lost at home, 4-1-0 14-3 so far, Eskilstuna unbeaten away, 3-2-0 12-4. I think Akropolis streak will end today, lost form's not their only problem, they will miss suspended goalscorer Allyn, and I dare say he is important: he has scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches, Akroplis scored 15 goals totally in those matches. They will also miss one defender and one's questionable. I would give City a good chance to win this one without this info, and now 1.99 for the -0.25 looks very valuable.

[lunatism]

Sport	Football (Swedish Division 2 - Ostra Svealand)
Event	Arameiska Syrianska v Sparvagens FF
Selection	Arameiska Syrianska
Strength	10/10
Date	20/06/2007
Bookmaker/Price	BetandWin @ 1.20 (Back)
Reasoning	10 games played in the Swedish Division 2 - Ostra Svealand and Syrianska are leading the charge for Division 1, they currently find themselves on top by 3 points and are enjoying a 100% home record. They have conceded 6, which averages out at more than one per match, but they needn't worry about that - they've scored 17! But you shouldn't be fooled by their goal difference, most of that came in their 7-2 defeat of Tyreso FF at the end of May. Since then, they have won every match, but non with such a convincing scoreline, in fact, 3/4 of those victories have been by "only" 2 goals. Which suggests that although they win, the goals haven't exactly been free flowing. When Syrianska faced Tyreso FF, the away side were in a similar position to today's opponents - languishing around the bottom of the table after a run of bad form - and Syrianska took full advantage of that and punished them accordingly! Many will expect a similar result today, and it could be a high scoring match, their last result against a top 3 club resulted in a 6-0 thrashing by Rynninge IK Orebro. But the away side will be approaching this match completely differently. Having won only their second match of the season last week against Tyreso (2-0), the confidence that would have inspired may result in a better match today. The home side will find it difficult to lose this match, the away side have the worst away record in the league, having scored only 2 while conceding 16. But given the nature of the opposition, Syrianska may take their foot off the pedal a little and might not score as many goals as expected. The AH looks nice, but for the home side to win by three goals they will need to be fully concentrated on the task for the full 90 minutes - something I'm not 100% sure they can do, in light of this, take the safer fixed odds option. Prediction: 3-1

[G:G]

Div.2 V. Götaland, Lindome - Varberg, 21/6:

Lindome @ 2.01 (Pinnacle)
I backed Lindome last match away to Mellerud, but they failed, lost 0-2. I feel confident in backing them again after reading the matchreport, they were really unlucky to loose that one, and now it's time for a bounce back. Lindome, placed 1st, 5-0-0 9-1 at home, vs Varberg, placed 2nd, 3-1-1 7-3 away, may look close, but Varberg got a lucky win vs 7th placed and poor away team Lärje/A last match, it's time for their streak of matches without a loss to end, the way I see it Lindome's the best team in this leauge, and around evens for Lindome at home should be a good deal.


Div.2 Norra Svealand, Heby - Vallentuna, 21/6:

Vallentuna @ 2.15 (Pinnacle)
Heby placed 10/12, 1-1-3 3-5 at home, vs Vallentuna, placed 7th, 2-1-2 12-11 away. Awayteam Vallentuna have been plagued by injury problems the entire season, but despite that they have gathered an ok ammount of points, last match was a 4-1 win at home to 4th placed Hudiksvall, Vallentuna played very well and gave Hudiksvall no chance. Vallentuna's a team from a northern suburb to Stockholm, they have a very talented team that, when things work, can beat any team in this leauge. Heby always fight hard and are tough to crack, but they should have huge problems with Vallentuna's much higher level of individual skill and speed. This is a bit of a risky bet, but I see Vallentuna as small favourites here, and I think that they have a good 2nd part of the season in front of them, so over evens must be tried.


Brage - Brynäs, 21/6:

Brage -2 @ 1.84 (Pinnacle)
I thought Brynäs would win at home to Heby last match, but 0-0 was the result, and I guess that tells the story about Brynäs, they will have to struggle really hard to avoid relegation, they look to poor for this division atm, record 2-1-7 7-21, away 0-0-5 1-16. Brage, on the other hand, have their goal set: next season in divison 1. They top the table, 8-2-0 18-2, have won last four matches, with 11-0 total goal difference. This may look like a high line again, but the class difference is huge, and I see no reason for Brage to take it easy, goal difference might be important in the end of the season, and why slow down when you are in the middle of a great run, homewin with more than two must be a sensible bet.


Div.2 S. Götaland, Lund - Kirseberg, 21/6:

Lund -1 @ 1.88 (Pinnacle)
There was a lot of talk about Lund having poblems with injuries before their latest match, but they took no notice, won convincingly away to Nike 3-0. Nike may be a poor team, but Lund controlled the match in a very impressing way. Kirseberg lost at home to 2nd placed Malmö ABI, 1-2, but the result was flattering for them according to the reports, Malmö dominated the events totally and missed about 7-10 scoring opportunities. Kirseberg started this season well, 4 wins in the first 6 matches, but have now lost their form completely with 4 consecutive losses. Lund looks to be a level above Kirseberg atm, and should have a great chance of covering this line.

[Burran]

Some thoughts from me.

Helsingborgs Södra-1.5
H Södra looks very strong. They top the table and haven't lost since the 2nd round. They also have 5 straight wins. Sölvesborg is at 2nd last place. They can't seem to get any stability and against H Södra away I don't see them getting any points. H Södra loves to score. They've scored 33 goals in 10 games so far and often win their games by more than 1 goal and I think they can do it tonight aswell.

Ersboda-1.25
Ersboda looks good at first place. They have 4 wins at home in 4 games. They should have a good chance against Holmsund and when the visitors have a lot of injuries I think that Ersboda will win this by at least 2 goals.

Värnamo+0.5
I think this is a more even game than Pinnacle suggests. Värnamo has played well away from home, and Skärhamn doesn't look very convincing althogh they have 2 straight wins. I think Värnamo can fight and get at least one point here.

Apart from this I agree with GG. Took Eskilstuna@2.20 since the -0.25 price had been slashed.

[Goe]

Which Eskilstuna are you referring to? IFK or City? Thanks a lot.

[Goe]

G:G, I must say that you got amazing odds, you are a real "odds hunter" . What you got is now even 20% less (or spread changed) and I am sure many of the bets have lost their value in the new given conditions. Best of luck tonight!

[Burran]

Originally Posted by Goe

Which Eskilstuna are you referring to? IFK or City? Thanks a lot.

Sorry...City

[lunatism]

FT: Arameiska Syrianska 1-0 Sparvagens FF

I just wasn't comfortable with the 3 goal win set by the handicap, and I'm glad i went fixed odds on this one. The score "didn't quite" go 3-1 like I predicted, but the home win came.

Syrianska were always going to win, but I wasn't sure of how the away side would perform to take either the -2 or +2

[G:G]

Yeh, fantastic, 1.20, while I lost mine, go bananas, mate. On a serious note: This is about money, a bit of respect? Goe: Yup, I chase odds early, Pinny need like 50 euro staked to lower, crap, but thats the way it is.

[lunatism]

G:G - sorry if i have offended you, i didn't mean that at all (the banana thing is just what I do when i pick a winner regardless of odds, i use the same system for every selection)

and i value your input on PL and Sports-Punter - you post a lot more selections than me, and so you can afford to slip up. On the other hand there is me - i only post several a week, and such a selection (as with today) can determine if at end the week i'm in profit or at a loss.

I was in no way celebrating your loss, it's great to see what you write, a lot of the time we're along the same lines and come up with winners together, today is just different - that's all

PS - i always try to sum up how my tips perform when the match has finished, and that's what i came up with for today

[Burran]

2/4 in the lower leagues....really dissapointed with eskilstuna who couldn't hold on to a 3-1 lead at HT

[G:G]

Ok, no probs, maybe I overreacted, hope you will keep on with your picks, always good with diff. opinions. Lets put this behind us and move on to tomorrows winners!

[Burran]

Some late thoughts from me...

Luleå FF dnb 1.91@Pinnacle
Luleå are 9th with 9 points and Umedalen are 7th with 12 points. Really big game this. Luleå started the season really poor but has started to get things going now. A draw in last game against Infjärden was a disappointing since they as they coach said were careless and that's why the 3 points became 1. Umedalen did what Luleå didn't do, start the season good. But now, they've seem to have fallen back. 3 straight losses right now and a 4th can be on its way tonight. I believe that Luleå should be bigger favourites than this at home and I'm glad to get 1.91 for the dnb

Kubikenborg-Syrianska Keruban Under 3.5 2.14@Pinnacle
Syrianska is a goalmachine at home, but away they seldom score or conceed many goals. They got 3 at Sandviken in a 3-3 draw but apart from that the scores have been 0-2, 1-0, 2-0.
Kubikenborg is the worst team in the league. An interesting fact however is that they always seem to keep up with their opponents til HT, but in the 2nd half they fall apart. My hope is that Kubikenborg can resist Syrianskas attack for the first hour or so. If they can get through this period without conceeding or maybe conceeding 1 goal this game will end under. I don't see Kubikenborg scoring themselves against Syrianska. 3.5 is a high line. I expect Syrianska to win this but not by a huge margin. 0-2 is my tip.

Laholm 1.75@Betsafe
Nike doesn't seem to belong in this league. I have no idea what so ever of how they beat Malmö Anadolu away, but anyway that's there only victory so far. They've scored 8 goals in 10 games and conceded 25. Laholm isn't one of the better teams in this league but they've played some good football at home and are often involved in tight games. They have done well against good teams despite losing those games. Laholm took an important win at home against Karlskrona two weeks ago and Nike is a much worse team. Laholm has a good chance of taking 3 points here and 1.75 is good enough imo.