Royal League 25th February

[kimera]

Sunday 25 February 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
OB Odense v Brann (14:00 GMT)	1.90	3.25	3.75	111%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetOver/Under
Copenhagen v Hammarby (16:00 GMT)	1.50	3.60	6.50	110%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetOver/Under

[kimera]

Brann are in the middle of the friendly routine when being off-season. Their last two matches have ended with losses, 0-4 against KR from Iceland and 1-3 against Vålerenga. Teamwise, Kristjan Ørn Sigurdsson will not play because of injury. Newly signed defender Ramiro Corrales has trouble with his work-permit so he won`t be participating either. After having a week or so in the norwegian off-season resort La Manga, they travelled back home one day earlier preparing for the match.

As mentioned in earlier RL threads Brann are a highly volatile squad who can play from magnificent to abysmal. In other words they are very difficult to depend on. Now when being off season they should not be ready to face an OB which improves every game they play.

OB took out Helsingborg easily last weekend as every punter in thiss forum predicted. They show form and are ready for the 2nd part of the danish season which is coming soon. They play with self-confidence and at their homepage there are great enthusiasm when looking forward to the next stages in this league. Defensively they will meet some problems though. With both centre-backs out, Møller Christensen (injured) and captain Ulrik Larsen (suspended), they have to play a whole new back-line. Against dangerous Sæternes and Helstad it might be a key point in the upcoming game.

They are battling for winning their group, both are through to the next stage, and the question about motivation in the teams will be a sure one. OB are at first the favourites here, but I choose to wait for Branns squad. If they field their best players, they will be dangerous off season or not.

[kimera]

Both København get one point against Hammarby they are through to the next stage. It is too early to say anything about the squad coach Solbakken will field, but they have been good in their friendlies lately. Thy won and lost RL matches against Brøndby. In the loss they rested four of their key players, Linderoth, Grønkjær, Allback and Jensen. In the win they all played. In other words which eleven players they will send out will be a major importance on sunday.

Hammarby have been in turmoil in their off-season, which is well pointed out in former RL threads. They have lost 7 of their best players to other clubs and sure they have some replacements, but many of them are young and lacking experience. Christian Traore (Midtjylland) and Charlie Davies (Boston College) are the most noticable though. Still I don`t see them having the qualities of breaking down one of the best teams in scandinavia. Haris Laitinen will be an important midfielder for the swedish team, he is injured though. They are also in the friendly routine and have lost against Ørebro and Gif Sundsvall, a win against finnish Marienhamn brightens things up slightly, but when meeting København will be another story. They have nothing to play for anymore in RL, so it will be seen as a friendly in their eyes.

A definite home win, hc if København field their best players in my opinion.

[G:G]

Good write up, kimera, I agree.

FCK @ 1.50 (Bet365)

Injury situation Hammarby: Nhleko back, probably available, Eguren same. Aubynn out, keeper Hellström out, Traoré out.
Iv'e said it before and I'll say it again: Hammarby does not look strong atm, they have lost very important key players, the defensive line looks a lot weaker without Stoor and Schleebrugge, and Lekström is not a keeper that I trust.
Midfield would look pretty strong, but without Aubynn vs FCK, it must be ranked as only ok.
Attackers Paulinho, and Davies should be a good weapon this season, but I think they will need some more time to get to know eachother and for Davies to adjust. FCK at home, with motivation, I cant' see anything other than homewin. FCK may rest some players, I don't know, but they will not take this easy as they want to go through to the next stage, and even if so they will have enough quality to beat Hammarby atm.

I'll also try -1 @ 2.40 .

[kimera]

Ståle Solbakken announced Københavns squad today:

1. Jesper Christiansen
3. Niclas Jensen
4. Hjalte Nørregaard
5. Brede Hangeland
7. Ailton Almeida
8. Michael Silberbauer
9. Fredrik Berglund
10. Jesper Grønkjær
11. Marcus Allbäck
13. Atiba Hutchinson
14. Michael Gravgaard
15. Dan Thomassen
17. Oscar Wendt
20. Razak Pimpong
21. Thomas Villadsen
22. Morten Bertolt
23. William Kvist
24. Jeppe Brandrup

Tobias Linderoth, Lars Jacobsen are struggling with the flu and Nathan Coe is injured. Except from them they have a fully fit squad. The handicap bet sounds more and more interesting...

[kimera]

Have to mention Københavns new signed striker Ailton Almeida. Paired with Allback they will make a very effective strike force with some different skills. Allback being the strong with a good header, Almeida a fast player with good finishing. He played last season for Ørgryte in Sweden and made many goals all by himself. Now he is surrounded with good offensive midfielders and wingers (Grønkjær, Silberbauer, Linderoth and Hutchinson). As a third striker, Fredrik Berglund is knocking at the door at the starting eleven. With that much quality in front I believe Fck will have a major offensive threat in the 2nd part of the danish season.

My mind slipping near an over bet in the upcoming match. Thinking København scoring at least two, the question is if they stop at that point. When reading about Hammarbys offensive powers from G:Gs post and other sources I get somewhat convinced that they might get a goal on sunday. In other words an over bet should definetely be worth considering...

[allthethings]

I guess I don't understand the Royal League...København is not playing well at all (2-0-3 with a 5-5 differential) and yet they're close to advancing with 1 point?

[Rumlesen]

I guess I don't understand the Royal League

Nr. 1 and nr. 2 from each group goes through to the quaters. The 2 number 3 with most points in the 3 groups go through too. Then we end up with 8 teams for the quater finals

[Jonne]

Originally Posted by G:G

Good write up, kimera, I agree.

FCK @ 1.50 (Bet365)

Injury situation Hammarby: Nhleko back, probably available, Eguren same. Aubynn out, keeper Hellström out, Traoré out.
Iv'e said it before and I'll say it again: Hammarby does not look strong atm, they have lost very important key players, the defensive line looks a lot weaker without Stoor and Schleebrugge, and Lekström is not a keeper that I trust.
Midfield would look pretty strong, but without Aubynn vs FCK, it must be ranked as only ok.
Attackers Paulinho, and Davies should be a good weapon this season, but I think they will need some more time to get to know eachother and for Davies to adjust. FCK at home, with motivation, I cant' see anything other than homewin. FCK may rest some players, I don't know, but they will not take this easy as they want to go through to the next stage, and even if so they will have enough quality to beat Hammarby atm.

I'll also try -1 @ 2.40 .

Don't think FCK have that much motivation, they'll have to lose 6-0 not to get through :p

And I don't think they really give a **** about going through to be honest, they did use a pure U21 middlefield in some of the games and have been using reserves a lot of the time.

[G:G]

Originally Posted by Jonne

Don't think FCK have that much motivation, they'll have to lose 6-0 not to get through :p

And I don't think they really give a **** about going through to be honest, they did use a pure U21 middlefield in some of the games and have been using reserves a lot of the time.

According to this guy they will take this game seriously:
http://www.fck.dk/saesonen/kampe/200...mmarby/optakt/

I also find it hard to believe that they all of a sudden would completely drop RL after winning it twice. FCK would also want to get in to the upcoming start of season with a win, don't you think ? Btw: I seriously think that a pure U21 FCK team would be favourites against Hammarby atm.

GL all

[Rumlesen]

I also expect FCK to do what is in their power here. I am sure coach Solbakken will use this to gear up his players. As there is slightly more on stake, than in a preseason match, the players will just give those 10% more. Also they put up the best squad means they want to do the buisness imo.

[Jonne]

True, FCK are professional in whatever they do. But that said they do not need to win the match, so motivation is not a factor in that way.

Still think they'll show Hammarby around in Parken though

[rurfors]

FCK - Hammarby 1 (-1)

Hammarby have so far played four friendlies this year and also made a training camp in the U.S.

They lost against USA International squad with 0-3 in the first game. In the second they won against newly promoted Örebro with 1-0.
After that they lost against Superettan team (second highest division) GIF Sundsvall with 0-3. Last week they beat finnish side Mariehamn with 2-0.

So far Hammarby have tried several combinations of players, and I think this will continue in Royal League against FCK. Hammarby doesn't have a chance to advance in the tournament, and as mentioned before, they've lost a lot of players to this season.

For example almost whole defence:
Ante Covic, Goalkeeper (Newcastle Jets)
Max von Schlebrügge, D (Anderlecht)
Petur Marteinsson, D (Reykjavik)
Fredrik Stoor, D (Rosenborg)

The players above all where first squad players last season! Put to that the loss of Petter Furuseth Olsen (midfielder to Stabaek) and Pablo Pinones Arce (forward to Vejle) and you see a team with large holes to fill.

Of course Hammarby have found some replacements. For example Christian Traore who have played in FCK and recently in FC Midtjylland. They also have contracted young striker Charlie Davies from Boston College. Davies has got very good reputation, but hasn't preformed yet, only 20 years old.



FCK on the other side have played two games in Royal League so far this season. One win and one loss against Bröndby. When playing with best squad, they won and tomorrow they will miss only Tobias Linderoth, Lars Jacobsen of the start eleven players.

FCK need to loose with six goals for not manage to go to next round. Not a lot of motivation for other side, which means best team win. Since FCK with players such as Allbäck, Ailton and Berglund are several classes better than Hammarby I think this will be a solid home victory, no matter what.

I therefore play FCK (-1).

[lakota]

Originally Posted by Jonne

Don't think FCK have that much motivation, they'll have to lose 6-0 not to get through :p

And I don't think they really give a **** about going through to be honest, they did use a pure U21 middlefield in some of the games and have been using reserves a lot of the time.

Hey guys I'm not an expert in Scandinavian football expert but I use logic in betting and here are my reasons why FCK(-1) is my main bet of the day.

1. FCK did use some reserves in past games but they were playing champions league then. Their championship hasn't started and this is a kind of game that any coach sees as a good oportunity for getting his team in good form. So unless FCK coach is a complete idiot who doesn't wan't his first squad to be in good form for the start of Danish championship, he has no reason to rest key players.

2. Judging from results in Euro cups I can say that Denmarks club football is two levels above Swedish.

3. Hammarby has lost both away games in RL with more than one goal difference and last game with FCK also.

So your info about Hammarby losing some key players in transfer market makes me even more sure about this bet.
Thanks to everyone for the info and good luck.

[Galea78]

Agree with all those on FCK, i can not see them playing around too much in front of home crowd and there is no indication if using anything other than a first team minus Tobias.

Home win for me

GL mates

[kimera]

After reading the recent discussion in this thread I choose these bets for todays matches:

Brann have a full squad to pick from and their coach Mons Ivar Mjelde says that they are going to make all effort possible to win their group. His main argument is money. If winning they will get a nice sum in norwegian terms. OBs defensive problems and Branns tendency to be constantly unstable makes me drop this one, even if OB have been showing great form lately. No bet for me in this one.

Enough is been said about the other match today. København have the qualities to be a team which can do good in european context and when they have almost a full squad to pick from they are really dangerous. Hammarby have had some good seasons the past years, but now their squad actually aren`t good enough to follow up those achievements. There is been said a lot about the motivation in Københavns squad lately, but there is no reason to forget the downfall in Hammarbys skills since last season. København will win this, without a doubt, and not because they maybe lack in motivation, but simply because they are a much better team than Hammarby.

My bets will be:
København straight win, 1.47 @betsson
København, -1.5 2.38 @betsson
København HT/FT, 2.18 @betsson
Over 2.5, 1.87 @betsson

[kimera]

HT

FC Copenhagen*

1 - 0

Hammarby

Looking good so far...

[kimera]

Btw, OB beat Brann 3-2. OB being the best team and Brann being effective... A pretty tight match as I suspected. Too bad I didn`t dare to go for the danish side.

[kimera]

200749'

2ND

W FC Copenhagen*

2 - 0

Hammarby

[Rumlesen]

3-0 FCK all over Hammerby