Royal League (23 Nov)

[davidmphill]

Thursday 23 November 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Hammarby v Brøndby (17:55 GMT)	1.85	3.40	4.00	109%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreOver/Under
Vålerenga v Viborg (18:00 GMT)	1.50	3.80	6.50	109%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreOver/Under

[G:G]

Info about Bröndby would be appreciated, will they play their strongest starting 11 despite their shaky position in the leauge?

If not Hammarby at 2,00 (Bet365) might be worth a try.

[kimera]

Vålerenga-Viborg

This is probably an early call since it is still two days before kick-off, but the royal league is all about motivation and wanting to play more football than the teams in scandinavia are used to. The norwegian league finished some weeks ago where Vålerenga ended their disappointing season with 5 victories in the last 6. In the first match they beat swedens best team, Elfsborg 2-1, even missing a penalty. This league is the only chance for the team winning something this year, and Petter Myhre, the new head coach, has brought a lot of motivation into the team. They also have a full squad to pick from, a worry is number one goalkeeper Arason which has some problems. The backup, Øyvind Bolthof, played against Elfsborg and did very well. He is motivated and determined to show his manager that next season he wants more playing time.

Viborg are struggling heavily in the danish top division. Laying 2 places above relegation spot they really need to get their act together. 1-1-6 away until now tells us the most. The danish division went on the winter break last weekend, next game is in march 2007. Viborg has been really bad, so I believe the break is a relieve for them, preferring to work hard in training until part II. Anders Linderoth is newly appointed coach, coming from Hammrby in Sweden doing a great job, but this game will come to early for him and his new team. He has also expressed that he will use royal league as a possibllity getting an overview in which qualities which is in his team.

As I said before this league is all about motivation, and on Thursday I can only see Vålerenga having it. Viborg are glad to get a break, maybe have a little motivation showing off for their new manager, but that is a small part comparing with the impact of the matches Viborg have been playing earlier this season.

Many bookies haven`t placed their odds on this match yet, but it looks like it will average at around 1.50-1.60 on Vålerenga. There will be value throwing in an AH bet when it comes around, we just have to wait and see...

[E_S]

Standings:
Group 2:
1. Hammarby (SWE) 1 0 1 0 1-1 1
2. Lillestrøm (NOR) 1 0 1 0 1-1 1
3. Brøndby (DNK) 0 0 0 0 0-0 0
4 FC København (DNK) 0 0 0 0 0-0 0

Group 3:
1. Elfsborg (SWE) 2 1 0 1 5 - 2 3
2. Valerenga (NOR) 1 1 0 0 2 - 1 3
3. Viborg (DNK) 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0
4. AIK (SWE) 1 0 0 1 0 - 4 0

I would keep my stakes very low, if you are betting on this tournament. The teams don't use their best players always, and may rest some. The pitches is often very bad, and it ain't many people on the stadiums either, so no big home advantedge.

Vålerenga started with a 2-1 victory against Elfsborg. Arason (GK), Fredheim Holm (F) and Wæhler (D) was regular players that didn't play in that game.
Viborg will play their forst game on thursday. Onuegbu, Rasmussen, Olesen and Junior are doubtful.
Hammarby got 1-1 home against Lillestrøm. That was coach Gustavssons first game for the club.
Brønby will play their first game, and have lot of injury players. Read some place that 10 players are missing, but some of them are already been out a long time.

Not good to find any bet now, have to wait for lineups, but Hammarby might be the most interesting bet.

[kimera]

Hammarby-Brøndby

For me today is to early making an opnion in this game. There is a lot of things happening in the home team squad. Contract talks and players leaving the team. They have lost their coach Anders Linderoth to Hammarby. Centre-back Petur Marteinsson are going back to Iceland and first goalie Ante Covic has left to Newcastle Jets. Players who are talking contracts are some important ones; Furuseth-Olsen, Eguren and Pinones-Arce... It is difficult to know how Tony Gustafsson, their new coach, will use his players. Last match against Lillestrøm they didn`t play any good, ended 1-1, but the performance looked "holiday-like" and demotivated.

With Brøndby it is hard to tell. So far this year they have been bad, very bad. Expected fighting for the title, ending part I in the middle without much chances doing anything in the title-race. Changes will be made, but as with Viborg it is probably too early. They might some players ready for this one, Rassmussen and Sigurdsson are improving from their injuries, but it is still early to tell if they would be participating on Thursday.

An open match, but actually I might be liking an away win here if the odds are right, even if they haven`t won away in 9 league matches so far. Brøndby are a quality team with a lot of good players. Royal league might be the teams only chance winning something this year. An other thing which might make an effect is the loosened pressure on the players Royal league can offer. Expectations are high in Brøndby and players and coaches would be affected by this looking at the early part of the season.

Waiting for bookies placing odds...

[G:G]

Hammarby - Bröndby

Nordicbet: 1,90 - 3,35 - 3,75

Bet365: 2,00 - 3,40 - 3,60

Svenska Spel: 2,05 - 2,65 - 2,60

Don´t entirely agree about Hammarby vs Lilleström, in my opinion Hammarby were the better team and should have won, including bad referee decisions and all. But good point about players leaving Hammarby, on the other hand i think Pinones - Arce, for instance, will be highly motivated to do a good match, as he´s in negotiations about a new contract as we speak. I will wait for Bröndby´s lineup before deciding.

[kimera]

Pinones-Arce was injured against Lillestrøm. Had to get carried out on a stretcher. Don`t know how serious the injury was though, but it might be worth taking in consideration?

Read that Hammarby had the ball most of the time against Lillestrøm, but didn`t manage to get it in. Lillestrøm had a terrible last part of their season this year. With alot of player speculations about leaving (Mifsud and Koren), a coach who was fired just after the season ended, Occean, the striker who was ment to be the hero was totally out of form and the usual sturdy defence suddenly started letting in easy goals. Brøndby will be a far tougher opponent than Lillestrøm. The danish side have much quality and a coach (former Man Utd, Rene Meulensteen) who will turn things around when he gets his time. He has been away the last Brøndby matches cause of family matters.

Still, as you said, it might be better to wait and see who Brøndby will play on Thursday...

[G:G]

I have no info about Pinones Arces injurie at the moment, but you are right, has to be considered. Hammarby played well in first half, should have scored at least two goals, but bad finnishing and a linesman that did not know about the offside rule stoped that. Second half was closer, Hamamrby biggest chance was a saved on the goal line by a defender.

But I´m not arguing with you about a possible value on Bröndby. IF they start with a decent 11, thats were I´ll put my bet.

[kimera]

Hammarbys squad for tomorrow:

1. Ante Covic
2. David Johansson
3. Petur Marteinsson
4. Fredrik Stoor
8. Klebèr Saarenpää
13. Max von Schleebrügge
15. Petter Furuseth-Olsen
16. Gunnar Thor Gunnarsson
17. Erkan Zengin
18. Haris Laitinen
19. Paulinho
21. Jeffrey Aubynn
22. Sebastian Eguren
23. Joakim Jensen
24. Benny Lekström
25. Sebastian Castro-Tello
26. Isak Dahlin
29. "Toni" Nhleko

As you all can see, Pinones-Arce is not playing tomorrow. It is also interesting to see that players who are leaving have been included, both Marteinsson and Covic. And those who are under contact talks, Furuseth-Olsen and Eguren. The first named attracting interest in some norwegian clubs and keeping his options open...

[kimera]

Brøndbys squad for tomorrow:

1. Casper Ankergren
16. Morten Cramer
3. Thomas Rytter
4. Per Nielsen
6. Marcus Lantz
9. Martin Retov
10. Martin Ericsson
11. Mads Jørgensen
12. Giovanni Rector
14. Joseph Elanga
18. Henrik Kildentoft
20. Asbjørn Sennels
21. Thomas Rasmussen
22. Morten Rasmussen
23. Martin Spelmann
26. Mike Jensen
31. David Williams

Mark Howard (13/18) and Stefan Schmidt (7/18) is out cause of injuries. From before Adam Eckersley (4/18), Kasper Lorentzen (5/18), Kim Daugaard (9/2/18), Hannes Sigurdsson (9/2/18) aren`t playing. Long-term, Trond Andersen, Ruben Bagger and Pequero are still out for a while. Marc Olsen is inegible, but Morten Rasmussen (11/18) will play, a major reinforcement. The question is how match-fit he is beeing out for a while. So it is no doubt that Brøndby are still struck from injuries. Coach Meulensteen said in an interview today that Royal league is the team only chance of winning something this year and expressed his intentions doing the best possible to make it. But in this league all managers would go out saying that so it is important not to value those words much.

Considering this a very open game seeing the squads. Have to say that I am leening more to a no bet here. Still seeing some goals coming though, both teams often involved in high scoring games in the leagues. But still with Pinones-Arce out for Hammarby and Brøndby getting their best central defender back I am getting cautious on an over bet too...

[davidmphill]

Great work Kimera, thanks for the insight.

[kimera]

Originally Posted by davidmphill

Great work Kimera, thanks for the insight.

Thanks, doing my best... By the way, it is kimera with the small k not the big one...

[G:G]

"It is also interesting to see that players who are leaving have been included, both Marteinsson and Covic. And those who are under contact talks, Furuseth-Olsen and Eguren. "

Hammarby have to include those players, they have no replacers for them as for now. Another info is that Furuseth - Olsen will leave for sure, according to Hammarbys official site. I find some value in Bröndbys odds, highest i found was 3,60, that does for sure not reflect the strength between these two teams, Bröndby dnb at 2,52 wort consideration too. RL very unpredictable, but thats why this odds may be worth a try.

[kimera]

Looking at Hammarbys starting eleven against Lillestrøm Marteinsson was benched and Pinones-Arce is now injured. Nhleko will probably be his replacement tomorrow. If i remember correctly Ante Covic missed two matches late in the season cause of family matters, his back-up goalie, Benny Lekstrøm played well, letting in only one goal. There is a big question how coach Gustavsson will use important Furuseth-Olsen. He has already done what he need to attract other clubs attention this year. As G.G points out it is very possible that he will benched tomorrow...

Hammarbys starting eleven against Lillestrøm:

1. Ante Covic

4. Fredrik Stoor
28. José Monteiro
13. Max von Schlebrügge
2. David Johansson

15. Petter Furseth Olsen
17. Erkan Zengin
22. Sebastián Eguren
21. Jeffrey Aubynn

19. Paulinho
11. Pablo Piñones-Arce

Subs.
3. Pétur Marteinsson
16. Gunnar Thor Gunnarsson
18. Haris Laitinen
24. Benny Lekström
25. Sebastian Castro-Tello
26. Isak Dahlin
29. Toni Nhleko

[G:G]

Lekström played 3 games in Allsvenskan, let in 4 goals. He was quite heavily critisized after 3-3 against IFK Göteborg. If he subs for Covic It´s a pretty strong argument for over or Bröndby I think.

[kimera]

Originally Posted by G:G

Lekström played 3 games in Allsvenskan, let in 4 goals. He was quite heavily critisized after 3-3 against IFK Göteborg. If he subs for Covic It´s a pretty strong argument for over or Bröndby I think.

Okay, sorry for missing that... Saw only the matches against Häcken and Örgryte he has been playing. In those matches I understood he played rather well. But of course there is a reason for Linderoth choosing Covic all the other matches. Have to agree with you on that... The wisest thing to do in this match is probably to wait for the starting eleven when everything beeing so vague right now. With not knowing who Gustavsson will choose it is all but speculations until kick-off. But the motivation for the Hammarby players with all that`s going on in the club should be a note which all should bare in mind when deciding.

[G:G]

No probs, kimera, this is teamwork

My reasoning is : Lots of things happening in Hammarby, one important attacker out and questionable motivation for some players. Bröndby with something close to their strongest starting 11 would be a hard task for Hammarby at their best. Given theese factors I try Bröndby, I think and hope that this odds has a clear value.

[kimera]

Then it is clear, Petter Furuseth-Olsen signed for the norwegian club Stabaek today! I guess we can take it for sure now that he won`t play tomorrow then...
Just to display how important he has been for Hammarby this year, playing 24 of 26 matches and scoring 2 goals. Haven`t got any info over how many assists he has, but being an offensvie midfielder/winger he probably has some. In other words an important player who is out of tomorrows match.

[G:G]

Youre absolutely right, kimera, he is cruical for Hammarby´s offensive game.

[kimera]

An update on Vålerenga:

Against Elfsborg over 3000 spectators showed up at Bislett, the old stadium in Oslo where Vålerenga used to play their home matches. Ullevål is under repairs because of too much use. For the home team the stadium fits good with more intimacy than Ullevål can offer. The coach Petter Myhre and the players bragged a lot of the audience when making a presence last week, which has been a problem for many teams in the royal league.
The home team will play the same squad as against Elfsborg. Which means that Kjetil Wæhler, Daniel Fredheim Holm and Arni Gautur Arason will be unavailable. Petter Myhre have also commented that the team is high-spirited and in good shape. The squad have alot of youngsters, but those are players Myhre know very well when he coached them before taking over the first team. Players like Glenn Roberts, Mohammed Fellah, Alexander Mathisen and Kristain Brix are all players looking forward getting much more playing time next season. Which means they will use every oppourtunity given to show Myhre what they are good for. The starting eleven would anyway be a strong one with strong players in all areas. But closer to kickoff we will know that for sure.

The squad:
30 Øyvind Bolthof, 35 Robin Vikskjold, 3 Allan K. Jepsen, 4 Thomas Holm, 5 André Muri, 6 Freddy dos Santos, 10 Jan Derek Sørensen, 11 Morten Berre, 13 Jarl André Storbæk, 15 Alexander Mathisen, 17 Mohammed Fellah, 18 Rune Lange, 19 Christian Grindheim, 21 Tom Henning Hovi, 22 Ronny Johnsen, 23 Tore André Flo, 27 Glenn Roberts, 34 Kristian Brix