Norway, Tippeliga, 5-13th of July.

[kimera]

Saturday 5 July 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Brann v Bodø/Glimt (18:00BST)	1.67	4.30	6.00	99.80 %	Details »
Hide « Brann v Bodø/Glimt
Sunday 6 July 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Lillestrøm SK v Lyn Oslo (17:00BST)	2.20	3.60	3.75	99.90 %	Details »
Hide « Lillestrøm SK v Lyn Oslo
Molde v Hamarkameratene (17:00BST)	2.03	3.75	4.00	100.93 %	Details »
Hide « Molde v Hamarkameratene
Tromsø v Strømsgodset (17:00BST)	1.86	3.80	4.85	100.70 %	Details »
Hide « Tromsø v Strømsgodset
Vålerenga v Stabæk (19:00BST)	2.74	3.55	2.80	100.38 %	Details »
Hide « Vålerenga v Stabæk
Monday 7 July 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Viking v Fredrikstad (18:00BST)	2.02	3.50	4.15	102.17 %	Details »
Hide « Viking v Fredrikstad
Wednesday 9 July 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Hamarkameratene v Rosenborg BK (18:00BST)	3.10	3.15	1.63	125.35 %	Details »
Hide « Hamarkameratene v Rosenborg BK
Saturday 12 July 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Aalesunds FK v Tromsø (18:00BST)	1.67	2.04	1.71	167.38 %	Details »
Hide « Aalesunds FK v Tromsø
Sunday 13 July 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Fredrikstad v Lillestrøm SK (17:00BST)	1.42	2.04	2.20	164.90 %	Details »
Hide « Fredrikstad v Lillestrøm SK
Strømsgodset v Vålerenga (17:00BST)	1.67	2.04	1.71	167.38 %	Details »
Hide « Strømsgodset v Vålerenga
Stabæk v Viking (19:00BST)	1.35	2.12	2.36	163.62 %	Details »

[Better]

What about Brann-Bodo?
Bodo is having a great season,unexpected.Brann is far better than Bodo and maybe today is a good chance to come back to victory.
What do you think Kimera about HW?
Thanks

[kimera]

Brann - Bodø/Glimt

The 2nd one in the 12th round kicks off today. Brann, the last years winner of tippeligaen squares off the surprise promoters from Bodø. Compared to last season, Brann has been struggling with consistency so far. Many strange results and efforts reflects their place at the table (7th). A normally solid team with good individuals are expected to fight for gold and glory. Their last three matches has not been gone as hoped for them. A draw against Rosenborg away (ended 1-1), in a game Roseborg controlled in 75 mins. Also when drawing away agaist Hamarkameratene in their last match (ended 0-0) shows signs of something is not correct. A game where i predicted a lot of goals went instead to a boring battle. In the midweek they struggled some in the cup playing against Valdres at home, winning 3-1. A close one until the end, as no one had expected. Even with many good offensive players the goals has been hard to come by lately, the stat being pretty different than what we are used to when speaking about Brann. Today two key players are back, centre-back Azar Karadas and key midfielder Eirik Bakke are both ready. Two players that will strenghten the defensive part of the team heavily. Bodø/Glimt has, as I mentioned before surprised many people so far this season. I have also stated that they have overperformed heavily, which their last 2 two matches could be a sign of. The clear loss against Viking away (0-2). A match where they had to defend themselves nearly the whole match. Last match versus Rosenborg they played with one man more in the last 45 minutes, a period they lost 0-1 btw, and could not capitalize on the opportunity. Today, they have a full squad to pick from, only key striker Thiago Martins is doubtful, but he will probably be ready. When playing away, they tend to lay low and rely on counters from fast wingers. Today that will be the recipe also. A tactic the Brann coach Mjelde defintely should be aware of. Still, the Glimt defence has played very well so far, and keeper Londak has followed up.

A Brann team that struggle to find the net somehow lately compared to a very tight Glimt defence gives me the definite smell of an under today. Pretty low stakes though knowing the unstable Brann team and the ever dangerous wingers in Glimt...

Under 3, 1.90, @pinnacle 3/10

[kimera]

Originally Posted by Better

What about Brann-Bodo?
Bodo is having a great season,unexpected.Brann is far better than Bodo and maybe today is a good chance to come back to victory.
What do you think Kimera about HW?
Thanks

The value on Brann is way too low imo. They have not convinced me at all so far, and the tactical issue of Glimt might very well surprise them today. Also it could be worth mentioning the H2H between these teams. A stat that is quite even actually, even if Brann in the latest seasons has come out with far better results than the visitors. Sensing a close game that can go either way. Depends somewhat of how the match turns out, but if it is scoreless at HT, it won`t be big numbers in it. Another major point might be that Glimt has not been scored against in the 1st half all season, a quite impressive feat knowing it has been 11 games played and they are newly promoted...

[Better]

Ok,i take under 3,thanks man

[kimera]

Brann - Bodø/Glimt 4-1
bet lost... And Glimt is going down the table indeed!

[modo]

Two matches me intersting today: Lillestrøm SK v Lyn Oslo.
Lillestrom about 30 km near Oslo and maybe Lyn will play like at home?But for me Lillestrom can win this match.And next game is Tromsø v Strømsgodset ,home win.Wait Norige friends comments.

[Landskrona]

Hey kimera Can you post your picks until 12.30??? because my local bookmaker is opened until 13.00, i will be very gratefull....

[kimera]

Vålerenga - Stabæk

Today all players in Vålerenga is avaliable. Both Lars Iver Strand and Daniel Fredheim Holm is ready for todays clash, players that imo really could have an impact on the team. Their season so far has not been as good as expected for the very ambitious team. Going with only one win the last six matches is not a positive sign. Still, at home they have only lost once so far. The last one was lost playing away in Fredrikstad (1-2). A tough match knowing the form and strenght in the opponents. The Tippeliga is a very tight league where everybody could beat everybody. To show it, a look at the table confirms my argument, knowing that it is 5 points from 3rd to 10th spot. Vålerenga is atm number 10 and need a win to get closer the top. They have a very good squad which has struggled to get their potential shown. When a full squad is ready to go, a better opportunity would be hard to find today. Stabæk on the other hand started the season extremely well. It has caused them to lead the league with good margins. Lately though, my initial thoughts has come to play. They are good, but not that good as the table says. Last match they lost at home 2-4 against Tromsø, the match before, a draw against Stømsgodset away (0-0) was the result. A game Godset should have won, being ineffective. Today, key midfielder Anthony Annan is highly doubtful. He struggles with a sore elbow. If he is out they will be without the creative part in the midfield. Otherwise, most players are ready. Of course the trio, Alanzinho, Nannskog and Gunnarson are all capable of getting any team into trouble, but they can`t do it alone. Another point being that Stabæk so far this season has shown that they have a sturdy defence. Against Tromsø it was poor, sensing a drop in form from key players. And to mention one last comment from key striker Nannskog talking to media earlier this week: "We need to get at least two more quality players in the midfield to fill out the loss of the sold Tchoi, and injury prone Annan, if we are to hold on to the 1st spot."

A must-win for a full-squad Vålerenga, while an overperforming Stabæk has started to show that their accomplishments so far is not "real" according to their position on the table...

Vålerenga, (0), 1.91 @188bet 6/10
Vålerenga, -0/0.5, 2.25 @188bet 4/10

[kimera]

Molde - Hamarkameratene

Two of the newly promoters meet up today in a important battle for both teams. Molde has proven to be a highly volatile squad so far. Going from winning 4-3 away against Brann to nearly beaten by lowly Kristiansund in the cup earlier this week. In the the league they are placed as expected. In the bottom section with ambitions to stay alive until next season. They have a squad filled with young talent added with more experienced ones. This means that those that have been a part of the game for while must perform at all time. Midfielders Thomas Holm, Daniel Berg Hestad and Magne Hoseth are the one mentioned. Molde has also had severe problems getting goals this year. The 4-3 win against Brann was an exception, knowing that Brann, after leading 3-1, suddenly started to play like a 2nd division team in that one it does not reflect the right match progress. On wednesday Molde had to play 120 minutes to take down Kristiansund and reports from that match tell that many players in Molde struggles with some minor injuries. No major key players are reported out, but fatigue and knackered bodies should have a saying today. Looking at how they play, their main problem has been when they are out to control the game. Teams that lie low and are compact has always been a problem for Molde. Kristiansund did it, and I expect Hamarkameratene doing the same. The 0-3-3 at home stat confirms that argument. The visitors today are last in the league and wins must come shortly. In the last one against Brann at home (0-0) they had their 1st matche with nearly a full squad, and the result reflect it. A game they should have won according to match reports. Today, all players are ready to go again, and should be heavily motivated to get something out of this one. 0-1-5 so far when playing away is nothing to be proud about, but severe injury woes earlier in the season might explain it. I can`t see much difference in these teams knowing their status today.

H2H, Hamarkameratene has not lost when playing in Molde since 1995. Today they need at least one point to stay alive knowing that this one is against one of the teams they will fight with position-wise in the end.

Hamarkameratene, +0.5, 1.87 @188bet 4/10

[kimera]

Tromsø - Strømsgodset

Well, Tromsø has shown lately that they are an unreliable lot. Going from losing 0-1 at home against Fredrikstad, to beating Stabæk 4-2 when visiting sure gives a punter a headache. I see it like this; In the loss at home they were highly ineffective blowing at least six clear chances. Against Stabæk they scored on 4 of 5 chances. In my book the Stabæk game was a release for hungry and good players like Morten Moldskred and Sigurd Rushfeldt. Their goal difference of 10-7 in total does not reflect the offensive strenghts in this team and knowing that it was 6 ones in the last one you could all do the math. Today, they will probably field the same team as the ones that met Stabæk. Borch, Knudsen, Hafstad and Huusko are still out, while winger Lindpere is ready again, but will most likely start on the bench. Strømsgodset is a team expected in the middle of the league. The recent games however has been good point-wise. The win against a Lillestrøm that is heading upwards was strong and the many times mentioned draw against Stabæk at home should have been won. Away from home their stat is not that good though, going 0-3-2. Today defenders Alexander Aas and Andre Bergdølmo are still out, but when key centre-back Inge Andre Olsen also won`t travel they have to rearrange their defence. Offensive-wise, they have had some problems scoring, but the last two games has shown some rise in form for their key forwards. The wingers, Ohr and Andersson, and striker Nielsen are in a positive direction. Also their midfielders are showing a rise creative-wise.

The "release" last match from Tromsøs offensive players and knowing that Godset is very able to get goals today my choice is the overs. Looking at form and stats Tromsø should be an easy one, but I don`t trust them enough yet...

over 2.5, 1.92 @188bet 4/10

* Seeing the odds has dropped some since I placed the bet, you all should consider the value if to choose this one. If it goes below 1.80ish, it might be wise to think twice imo.

[kimera]

Originally Posted by modo

Two matches me intersting today: Lillestrøm SK v Lyn Oslo.
Lillestrom about 30 km near Oslo and maybe Lyn will play like at home?But for me Lillestrom can win this match.And next game is Tromsø v Strømsgodset ,home win.Wait Norige friends comments.

Lillestrøm will miss two key defenders today, Riseth and Andresen. That means that Eirik Bertheussen will get his "debut" today beside Frode Kippe. He is a youngster without much experience at this level. Injuries has set him back the last season, but he is fit again now. Winger Bjørn Helge Riise is starting his 1st after long-term injury. Lyn can be good or bad. Their young and talented squad can do magic or major errors. Many arguments for both teams. I would rate it is as a 52/48 match in favour of Lillestrøm, knowing that Lyn could easily get something out of this one. Forwards, Ighalo and Hoff, will be around the new name in Lillestrøms defence for sure, and both players are smart ones. Will not touch it...

[kimera]

Originally Posted by Landskrona

Hey kimera Can you post your picks until 12.30??? because my local bookmaker is opened until 13.00, i will be very gratefull....

Sorry, but I can`t post before I am ready to do it. Which means research must be done and info to be read...

[Landskrona]

Originally Posted by kimera

Sorry, but I can`t post before I am ready to do it. Which means research must be done and info to be read...

Ok sorry for this post i konw that. I was playing Nottoden before you post this play so im feel comfortably with this one. good luck to us Also i playing under 2.5 in Molde - HamKam game and after reading yours preview to that game im feel also good in my pick, hope for 1-1 or 0-2 game Good luck

[kimera]

Vålerenga - Stabæk 2-1
both bets won...

Tromsø - Strømsgodset 2-0
bet lost...

Molde - Hamarkameratene 2-0
bet lost...

[Better]

I must thank Kimera,because i escaped HW at Kongsvinger match and took Valerenga,so,very thanks Kimera,great job as allways

Still one match left Viking-Fredrikstad
Viking should field like this 4-2-3-1:Thomas Myhre, Maurice Ross, Børre Steenslid, Ragnvald Soma,.Thomas Pereira - Jone Samuelsen, Nicolai Stokholm - Allan Gaarde, Martin Fillo, Alexander, Ødegaard - Peter Ijeh.

Fredrikstad welcome back Gashi and Barson 4-4-2
Runar, Czwartek, Ophaug, Piiroja, Wallace, Ramberg, Gashi, Wehrman, Barsom, Elyounoussy Johansson

Viking at the start of the season was tipped as gold fighter,maybe the best team of the ligue and so far they didn't show much,Fredrikstad is highflying and if we look at the tabell,by winning they could pass Stabaek and be first so
I would be very surprised if this will happen,altought they are having great results.
For me HW is playable but need our Master Kimera opinion about it

[Givi]

Hi all..Where can I find a tactic of single teams, please?(especially the spacing)

[kimera]

Viking - Fredrikstad

Being placed in 9th spot is far below the expectations in Viking. They had before the season many ideas that they would be able to fight for medals, and the gold as very possible. The 1st part of the season has been filled with unstabillity from their side. Going from playing very well to the opposite. At home 3-0-2 is not the best either, at least if you want to fight for gold. Their main problem have been the lack of defence. Many easy goals has been let behind and especially early in the matches. Now the 2nd part of the season is on the verge and I sense a change in the team. When they had Glimt visiting in their last home game (2-0), they dominated the play alltogether. Against Lyn last week (ended 1-1) they had contol until the last minute. In the game playmaker Martin Fillo was suspended. Btw, a Lyn squad that really has shown form lately. Today, a full squad is at their hands, and more importantly last years topscorer Peter Ijeh is back in action. He suffered from an injury earlier and struggled heavily with motivation when Andrus Velicka got playing time insread of him. Now Velicka is on his way to Rangers (this one his last before leaving), being benched today. Viking won an easy game in the cup earlier this week (3-0), and Ijeh showed that his shape is in a very positive direction. They are in a pretty same situation as Vålerenga yesterday, a game they need to win if hopes of fighting for the top spot should be real. If I compare Viking with Vålerenga, it is fair to compare Fredrikstad with Stabæk. A team that has surprised many experts in Norway, expected to be only an outsider for the title this year. Imo they has overperformed so far relying on key players to perform. That being said, those players has done it by the book. Striker Tarek Elyounussi, midfielders Kasey Wehrmann and Ardian Gashi, and at last key centre-back Raijo Piroja have all been in great form so far. Today, they will have only one key missing. 1st goalie Lasse Staw was injured against Vålerenga last weekend. His sub, Tommy Runar, will get his 1st impression on this level, will he be able to get it right in a full Viking stadium, I think not. Also even if Fredrikstad is at 2nd spot atm, their away form has not been as good as it should be, going 2-1-2. And when looking at the opposition that notion is increased. A loss against average Strømsgodset (0-1), and a very strange win against Tromsø (1-0) is their last ones. When I say strange I mean that it was a game that Tromsø controlled from start to end, 10-2 in chances, and the ineffectiveness from Tromsøs strikers saving the day for Fredrikstad. They beat Vålerenga 2-1 at home in the last match played, a game that easily could have gone both ways.

Home advantage, a surging full-squad Viking, a "rookie" goalie in net for Fredrikstad and poor away play from the visitors makes me go for Viking today. And the value is present, still, careful with the stakes knowing that Fredrikstad has key players in form and could get a decent result against any opponents...

Viking, -0.5, 2.11 @sbobet 3/10

[Better]

Hi Kimera
I've tried to translate this article,http://fotball.aftenposten.no/elites...icle112224.ece
if i'm not wrong, it's written that Viking coach Rosler said he expects a low scoring match and that they must be effective and turn into goals the few chances he think they'll have.
If i translate good,do you think under 2,5 is a good bet?
Thanks

[kimera]

Originally Posted by Better

Hi Kimera
I've tried to translate this article,http://fotball.aftenposten.no/elites...icle112224.ece
if i'm not wrong, it's written that Viking coach Rosler said he expects a low scoring match and that they must be effective and turn into goals the few chances he think they'll have.
If i translate good,do you think under 2,5 is a good bet?
Thanks

Well, knowing of the strenght from the attacking sides for both teams I would probably go for the over if I would choose. Yes, Viking has fixed their defensive problems somewhat, but for me it is far too early to trust them. Fredrikstad has as I mentioned their back-up goalie in net, he will have much pressure to perform today and as I see it, it is only three stadiums in the league that is very difficult to do it. At Viking, Brann and Rosenborgs, knowing that they have filled up all seats, and intense fans. Anyway, no value on either over/under for my sake...