Finnish Veikkausliiga 25./26.5.2008

[Birdland]

Hi

First post here, some of my thoughts of upcoming Veikkausliiga matches.

Fc Kooteepee - FC Honka

Kooteepee is consired to be one of the weakest teams in history of Veikkausliiga and you cannot
expect much from them this time either. Honka is above average team with some young potential but
they seem to be inconsistent between and during the games especially in their away games.

Kooteepee is missing Ikävalko and Vartiainen and probably also Hviden-Watson and Odorisio the latter
two being important starting eleven players. Honka is missing Koskinen and probably Weckström from
their midfield that makes them bit weaker. All in all I don't see anything valuable in this games
odds as away win is priced as low as 1,7 and Honka hasn't really impressed in their away games + their
inconsistency.

Kups - Fc Inter

Kups was expected to be one of the weakest teams in Veikkausliiga this season and that's what they shown
so far having one win(against weak Kooteepee) in seven games and couple of lucky draws. Inter has been clearly the best team
in Veikkausliiga so far and they have won 12 of their 15 games if you count also pre-season
liigacup. They have just as strong as their record implicates.

Kups is missing defender Kinnaslampi and probably Hartikainen and that makes them even weaker that
they've been. Kups allowed 26 shots against in game against MIFK and it's probably going to be same kind of
bombardment to their goal again. Inter misses forward Furuholm, but their true forte is in their
defense as they allow very few chances per game and the've conceded only 2 goals in 7 games so far(VPS had
0 shots against them in their last game). I think current odds around 1,95 for away win have some value
so 7/10 bet for away win.

HJK - Mypa

HJK was expected to be one of the strongest teams in this years Veikkausliiga and
their current position in table looks ok but they haven't shown
really that much yet. They've had maybe the softest schelude so far(Kooteepee, Kups and currently
totally out of from TamU at home) and they've got very lucky 4 points againts Mifk and Inter as they deserved
maybe 0 or 1 points out of those games. HJK looked really sluggish/tired at the start of their last game
against Honka as Honka pressed them and their schelude is currently harder than the rest of the Veikkausliiga
teams as this is their 3rd game in 6 days(others have 3rd game in 7 days). Mypa was expected to be above
average team and that's pretty much what they shown so far.

HJK is missing mf Tuomas Haapala and that's a blow as their backbone have been so far the trio of defender
Tuomas Aho and mf's Haapala and Medo. Mypa is missing long time absentee Agboh and mf Äijälä the latter
being catalyst of their attack. I think Mypa +0,5 at odds 2,10 has value as HJK isn't really that strong
as expected and the extra home advantage HJK having from their artificial pitch is pretty much eaten by
their tough schelude. 7/10 for Mypa +0,5 at 2,10. I also like over 2,5 with oddds around 2,20. HJK is going
to attack at home, Mypa is more attacking than defensive team and neither of the teams isn't exactly a
defensive monster. 7/10 for over 2,5 at odds 2,20.

TPS - MIFK

TPS was hailed as a best team in Veikkausliiga by some experts before the season because of
Martti Kuusela coming to coach. That praise had also some football politics behind it because
of Kuusela being good friends with some of the media guys and they want to have influence on next
Finnish national team coach(Kuusela being as their favourite). So, what the've shown? Not much,
they've been below average team as quality of play being the yardstick for how good the team is.
They've had and still have some very important absentees from their team. Nobody seems to pay much
attention to MIFK as they are bit outsiders as Åland is more of swedish territory than finnish.
MIFK was very strong at the later part of last season as they lost only 2 games out of 15 and
other was on their last game with nothing at stake. MIFK has looked strong so far this season and
I think with current level of play they'll be fighting for top3 spot at the end of season especially if the
enigmatic goalkeeper Ochieng plays up to his potential. Last couple of years MIFK has been as strong as
anybody in their away games.

TPS has practically half of it's starting line-up on injured list as Valakari, Heinikangas, Ääritalo,
Cleaver and Sarajärvi are all out. MF's Pertot and very talented Kasperi Hämäläinen are still recovering
from injuries and they are not 100% fit even they are playing. There is nothing much left on a team that was
already overrated at the start of the season. MIFK has long injury list too, but really important missing are only
deferders Blomberg and probably Binnion. There was just 6 points gap between these teams at the end of last season.

If there's any sense of justice in the minds of football gods MIFK will be blasting TPS all the way to h*ll today :-)
MIFK is currently clearly stronger side of these two and MIFK +0,5 with odds around 1,9 is a very good offer.
9/10 for MIFK +0,5.

FC Lahti - FC Jaro

Lahti was expected to be an average team before the season and that's pretty much they've shown so far.
They had very soft schelude at the start of the season as they've faced Kooteepee, VPS, Kups and out of form
TamU in their first 5 games. Jaro was expected to be below average team before the season, they started
the season with promising efforts against TamU and Honka but their level of play started to slip after
that and they practically collapsed after their captain Jens Portin got injured after 4 games having goal
difference of -8 in 3 games after that. There's also rumours of coach Laurikainen to be axed that's practically
what happens always when teams lose couple of games with weak efforts.

Lahti is missing important mf Vanninen and they're starting the game with young goalkeeper Tuomi
who's having his Veikkausliiga debut. Jaro's list of absentee's is long as Kullström, Jens Portin,
Junnila, Koivisto, Svanbäck and Wargh are out Portin and Svanbäck being as a backbone for this club.

It looks very tempting to bet FC Lahti with all the absentee's of Jaro and their horrible efforts in
last couple of games, but home odds around 1,70 are still bit short with Lahti's record being biased because of
their soft schelude + simply luck and the fact their goalkeeper is going be 19-year old debutant today. No bets.

VPS - Tamu and Haka - Rops to follow as there's more team news available.

[Djordje]

to PuntersLounge Birdland

great post

[Birdland]

Haka - Rops

Haka was expected to be solid above average team, but so far they've been very inconsistent. There were
speculations with Haka's financial situation and during that time their performances were very poor,
but last games looked better as things seem to be getting better off the pitch. I think they
are still above average team. Rops was misjudged by all before the season. Everybody expected them to be
very weak with all the uncertainties with their license, suddenly changing coaches etc. but so far they've
put a very solid effort. I think they are at least average team. Interesting to see what happens after
summer break when they are better prepared.

In todays game Haka is missing Strandvall and Parviainen which in my opinion doesn't mean that much. Rops
is having worse situation as they are missing Bauer, Edeipo, Tsykoliia and Mweetwa. I'm slightly towards
to home win with odds around 1,8 as Rops is having so many abseentees, but value is so marginal in my
opinion that I'll pass. Total bets don't seem tempting either. No bets.

VPS - Tampere United

Vps was expected to be one of the weakest teams in Veikkausliiga and they've haven't shown not much more
than that. They seem to get best out of their material with very defensive tactics and they are hard to beat.
Scoring seems just be very tough task for themselves. Two time champions TamU has been so far anything but
expected. They've had several injuries and quality of their play has been weak. I must admit that I don't
really know what to think about them now. Coach Hjelm said he's already waiting time after summer break
for restarting their season and that's about the same I think.

Neither team is having injury worries to mention about today as TamU has got their absentees back. If
this would have been the first game of the season current away odds around 2,20 would have been no-brainer
bet, but because of weak efforts of TamU I'll pass that. As for total goals there seems to be value
at under 2,5 with odds around 1,70. VPS is the most defensive oriented team in Veikkausliiga and I guess
TamU's main focus is going to have solid, balanced effort with not too many risks. 7/10 for under 2,5 goals.