Finland - Veikkausliiga (8-11 June)

[FinLandiaFish]

Friday 8 June 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
FC Lahti v Vaasa (15:30 BST)	1.66	4.10	6.80	100%	Related markets...Match ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreBoth Teams To ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Sunday 10 June 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
HJK Helsinki v Jaro (16:30 BST)	1.53	4.10	7.40	104%	Related markets...Match ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Viikingit Hsk v TPS (16:30 BST)	3.90	3.45	2.25	100%	Related markets...Match ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Monday 11 June 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Vaasa v AC Oulu (17:00 BST)	2.25	3.30	3.15	107%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under

Only one match today FC Lahti - VPS

The away team is in awful form and has lost three games in a row, latest being 5-1 on road against TPS. On the other hand Lahti is coming of a dissapointing 1-0 away loss to league leader TamU and before that they were 3/4. I watched the TamU-Lahti game and Lahti deserved atleast a point, they were very unlucky (=bad at finishing) and the game could have easily been 0-2 before TamU even got in to the game. So the main point here is the fact that there is a big class difference between these teams, especially with these forms and this matchup (Lahti as home team). Lahti is 2-0-1 at home (6-6 goal dif.) and have won two in a row there. VPS on the other hand has lost all three of their away games and are 1-11 goal diff. on road. There should be no question about the winner today as Lahti should walk over VPS.

FC Lahti @1.62
FC Lahti (-1.0) @2.60
FC Lahti HT @2.10
Over 2.5 @1.80

Best of luck to everyone

EDIT: Odds are from Betsafe from this morning.

[Punto Banco]

.... Nice looking pick... could you please post the bookies which have those prices on offer please...

[avok]

for Lahti
Heikki Haara was the toppari of Lahti already on the bench in the previous Tampere United match so he probably now returns to the opening assemblage.
Kemppinen. is missing - no importance

for VPS
Ekstrom is missing - OLD miss

[G:G]

Lahti -0.75 @ 1.80 (VC Bet)
VPS have been terrible away, no one can argue that: 0-0-3 1-11. A surprise for me as I thought they would be a tough team to beat this season too, last season they were able to get quite a few points away from home from playing their usual simple football. Lahti are unpredictable, mix high and low, but they have been solid at home apart from that 1-4 loss to Jaro in the first round. I expect Lahti to show their superior class here and they should be able to beat VPS with a couple of goals.

TPS -0.25 @ 1.78
TPS have had a good run, three straight wins, 3-1-1 last five matches. TPS imo a very solid team, have only allowed 5 goals in 7 matches, and now that their attacking works too, 11 goals scored last three, things look very good. Ok, the opposition may not have been very tough in two of those matches: VPS and Oulu, but nevertheless, they won and did it convincingly. Viikingit got a surprise win away vs Inter last round, and before that they got 1-1 at home to HJK so they should not be underestimated, but I'm sure that TPS must be considered the better team and favourites to win this one.

[Punto Banco]

I agree with all Lahiti... I have no doubt they will be victorious tonight but have decided to take them @ -1.5... priced @ 2.8 this is tremendous value... this is obviously a smaller stakes bet but i am confident that a favourable result is a 50/50 chance or at worst 40/60... even then the price is sound.... gl all lets hope we all pull the winners 2night....

[mgas98]

can u explain me what means FC Lahti (-1.0) @2.60 ? thank you
good bets

[G:G]

Originally Posted by mgas98

can u explain me what means FC Lahti (-1.0) @2.60 ? thank you
good bets

-1 Means that they have to win with more than one goal. But its important to separate each way handicap and asian handicap: With each way you loose if, in this case Lahti, wins with one goal, with asian you get a push, your stake back.

My bet, Lahti -0.75 is asian, meaning that I win half and get half stake back if Lahti wins with one goal, making the odds 1.40, if Lahti wins with more than one goal I win the whole bet.

[mgas98]

in -0.75 if you bet 3 euros and lahti won 1-0 you win 1,5 euros?

[G:G]

Originally Posted by mgas98

in -0.75 if you bet 3 euros and lahti won 1-0 you win 1,5 euros?

You get 1.5 euros back and win 1.80 x 1.5 euros, 2.7 euros. Totally you get 4.2 euros for staked 3 euros = 1.40 effective odds.

[mgas98]

even if lahti loose the game u get back 1,5 euros??

[Unbelievable]

Originally Posted by mgas98

even if lahti loose the game u get back 1,5 euros??

If Lahti draw or lost the match, you lost your bet.

[allthethings]

I know some of you get annoyed at me being such a naysayer, but let me tell you why I don't like the -1 handicap for Lahti, which is my book's only choice besides -165 on the straight win.

So many Finland V games are low-scoring, and Lahti is not such a good team that we can bank on them winning by many goals. Lahti is not a great team...3-1-3 so far, and in only one game have they beaten a team by more than one goal: HJK Helsinki.

Beyond that, while VPS has had a poor start, look at the opponents...They got crushed 0-5 at Inter and home 1-2 to Jaro, yes, but here are the rest:

1-5 to 3rd-place TPS
0-1 to 2nd-place Haka
Home draws to 1st-place Tampere, 4th-place MyPa and 5th-place Honka

So VPS have played the top five teams at the moment and only been beaten by more than one goal once. In seven games total they've been beaten by more than one goal twice.

How many clean sheets has Lahti kept this year? One (0-0 draw to Mariehamn). All that has to happen in this game to possibly screw up the handicap is for Lahti to concede, which they've done in six of seven games. And I'm convinced that VPS is not as bad as their record would indicate since they have already played against the top five teams in the league and only once has the game been a blowout.

Lahti might win this one 2-0 or 3-0...but I don't think this one's worth the risk. I think it's just as possible that VPS will have a much better time of it playing a midtable team, and that the game is more likely to be tight...too tight for my comfort level.

BOL everybody, I'll be happy to be proved wrong here since you'll all make some money.

[allthethings]

I'm going to take the overs at even money, which I think has value. Lahti is a team that does not settle for draws, especially at home, and I think VPS will surprise by scoring...BOL all

[Punto Banco]

Originally Posted by allthethings

I'm going to take the overs at even money, which I think has value. Lahti is a team that does not settle for draws, especially at home, and I think VPS will surprise by scoring...BOL all

You could be very right... lets hope not about the scoring thing... 3-0 everybody is happy...

[FinLandiaFish]

@allthethings

Well, I'm not annoyed at all. It's nice to have many opinions on games, even if they are against you. But still I doubt that it's not wise to pass this game:

From your text I see you think Lahti isn't such a great team and VPS might be better than it looks atm. Basicly it's a nice argument, but it just smells so if,might,could be-formed. I really dunno if VPS is better than it looks, but their current form nevertheless is awful and they surely belong to the lower class of the league. And as for Lahti, they are in good form and as I said earlier they looked really good against league leader TamU (although TamU was the host) and that shouldn't be ignored, making this a really good looking spot to take HW regardless of the outcome

EDIT: 1-0 Lahti 7th minute.. looking good.
2-0 Lahti 16th minute...
3-0 26min... looks like this game is in da bag

[allthethings]

So far it looks good for you guys, I'm glad. I hope that, being on the overs, Lahti keep up the pressure and score again...VPS so far do look like a very poor team indeed...

[allthethings]

LOL. Nice call...everybody!

[Punto Banco]

You all can thank me for this... I inspired the boys personally with my 3-0 claim... 3-0 33rd min... lets hope they dont collapse but Im not sure any1 can see Vaasa scoring more than 1...

[allthethings]

Im not sure any1 can see Vaasa scoring more than 1...

Not even me!

[Punto Banco]

COULDNOT have gone better... 6-0 o my... not expected but welcome... indeed worth staying up till 3:30am while playing a poker tourney 4....

... sorry im delerious...