Slovenian Prva Liga Midweek 27/9

[Tulenos]

Wednesday 27 September 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
FC Koper Sport v NK Drava Ptuj (16:30 BST)	2.10	3.20	3.10	112%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
Nafta Lendava v FK Gorica (16:30 BST)	1.66	1.91	1.71	171%	Related markets... - - -Match ResultOver/Under
NK Domzale v CMC Publikum Celje (16:30 BST)	1.25	4.50	10.00	113%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
NK Maribor Piv Lasko v Bela Krajina (16:30 BST)	1.22	2.16	3.20	160%	Related markets... - - -Match ResultOver/Under
NK Primorje v NK Factor (16:30 BST)	1.20	5.00	11.50	113%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under

[Tulenos]

Not fully priced up as yet, especially the Lendava and Maribor matches

[FeriB]

Compiled my own odds...

Nafta	Gorica	2,45	3,20	2,60	110,53%			36,9%	28,3%	34,8%
Primorje	Factor	1,35	4,30	7,40	110,84%			66,8%	21,0%	12,2%
Koper	Drava	1,80	2,80	5,10	110,88%			50,1%	32,2%	17,7%
Maribor	Bela Krajina	1,60	3,30	5,50	110,98%			56,3%	27,3%	16,4%
Domzale	Publikum	1,40	4,00	7,00	110,71%			64,5%	22,6%	12,9%

be back later with some info and picks...

[Tulenos]

FeriB - just a question - why aren't your own odds calculated to a square, ie. 100 % book. It just doesn't work well if you count with a 10 per cent overrround and consider these odds fair...

[Tulenos]

Well, some fairer odds across the board at last

Wednesday 27 September 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
FC Koper Sport v NK Drava Ptuj (16:30 BST)	2.10	3.20	3.20	111%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
Nafta Lendava v FK Gorica (16:30 BST)	2.60	3.10	2.50	111%	Related markets... - - -Match ResultOver/Under
NK Domzale v CMC Publikum Celje (16:30 BST)	1.25	4.50	10.00	113%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
NK Maribor Piv Lasko v Bela Krajina (16:30 BST)	1.57	3.40	5.50	112%	Related markets... - - -Match ResultOver/Under
NK Primorje v NK Factor (16:30 BST)	1.20	5.25	11.50	112%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time - - -Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under

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[Tulenos]

So comparing Feri's odds, there should be some value (mathematically) in backing Koper as well as long shots like Factor and Publikum. Looks like it might be worth looking a bit deepr into Koper

[FeriB]

Originally Posted by Tulenos

FeriB - just a question - why aren't your own odds calculated to a square, ie. 100 % book. It just doesn't work well if you count with a 10 per cent overrround and consider these odds fair...

I just wanted to remain somewhere between 110 and 111, can be changed though...

Maybe the odds on Gorica draw are a bit too high and the Primorje ones too high,
but being into the league I considered them fair. Koper on the other hand is
really tempting. I know their scores (draws), but Drava is no real away threat
and Koper will imo simply have to start winning with this team!!!

[Tulenos]

Huh - Koper's L6 were draws, Drava's L6 as well, last Koper's win in this fixture at home came in 2004 - 2 draws and a loss @ home since then and three draws and four losses overall - wouldn't touch them with such a record, tbh.

[FeriB]

FC Koper Sport - Drava Ptuj

@2.10

Odds on HW slightly fallen and expect them to fall even further.

It's not easy to play the team that is comming from an 8 game draw series! Any way
you put it, the draws will have to end once, also if speaking statistically.
Still it's not my main reason to back Koper in this game however not to be completely
thrown away.
The game will be played under pressure for the home team even more so as their
"Godfather" (owner) Mandaric will be present. There are also rumours about
big changes to be made after the game, like bringing a completely new management
along with a new coach. So far they're only rumours and might stay so, but
I can imagine it to happen if they prolongue with the non winning streak.

Koper's attackers Zahora, Drobne, Jakomin and the returning Brasilian Juninho
are all attackers above the average of this league and payed according to
their reputation.
All of them have had their good moments in the games so far also showing
their talent, but the final result just wasn't matching those moments. Mainly
it was because the defence wasn't on it's best and allowed some unnecessary
goals. They topped it at their last game when they received two goals in the
93' and 94'.
The game vs Drava will be of another kind. Koper always showed their best
games when they were playing infront of their "big boss" Mandaric and I'm
sure they'll just prove it one more time.
Drava are a solid team but they usually are showing their best at home and
are now arriving from the Styrian derby vs Maribor (1-1) which cost them
a lot of steam.
Koper are in no position to choose whom to beat and Drava are imo the right
opponents to prove their intentions.
Odds over 2.00 have great value as once Koper starts winning and I'm sure
it's only matter of time, the odds will surely drop to 1.40 - 1.60 for the HW.


5/10

[FeriB]

Nafta - Gorica+1 @1.45 bet-at-home

By searching for a value + probable outcome not much found here.
The reigning champions are comming to Lendava and it's going to be yet another
football fest after Nafta changed coach. The Nafta series are really impressive
with Gjurovski and with some new players as well, Nafta turned into a compatible team.
Gorica after losing their famous B&B forwards (Birsa-Sochaux, Burgic-AIK Stockholm)
and also Demirovic due to an injury, started the championship quite unsuccessfully,
but with the time and after Nikezic, the great forward arrived from Domzale
they started making good results again and climbing the tables. Now the players gained
the self confidence back and are talking about still not being too late for winning
the championship again.
With Pinni, the coach with longest history in Slovenian league, they just
might use one or the other of Domzale's weaknesses and get closer.
Nafta really showing some unexpected results, but also was quite lucky lately
when they weren't the better team but still have won or not lost the game,
f.e. vs Koper 1-1 as well as Publikum 2-1. I think their luck could stop today
as the quality is still on the visitors' side and by checking also the bad mutual
results Nafta has with the today's opponent I think the DA version is quite safe
here.

7/10

[FeriB]

Maribor - Bela Krajina @1.50


Maribor lost away to BK 1-2 midst their successful UEFA cruising and that was
a big shock result back then. Then some 1st team players left the club and
adding some injury+cards problems, they lost some important points in their
fight for top of the tables. Now they're fit and with full squad and ready to
revenge the loss of the 3 point on the away game. They showed good football
in their last two games, away win at Factor 2-0 and a draw away ag
Drava 1-1, where they were the better team in the second half.
I'm sure they started climbing the tables and being with their best team with
their great coach Pusnik, nothing else than a HW can be expected here vs a falling
BK who are getting closer to the bottom, where they were also expected at
the beginning of the championship.
Odds above 1.50 are still a value for HW.

8/10

[vaninio]

Primorje v NK Factor
Primorje is better team and good home team so they will win but i don't see value in this price 1.211 10bet.So i will not touch this game.


NK Domzale v Publikum Celje
The same thinks in this game, i don't see value in this price 1.261 but Domzale will win.


Maribor v Bela Kraina
Bela Kraina is very unpredictable team, thay lost home against Faktor and next game win away 1:4 in Gorica.Maribor lost last home game 1:3 against Nafta and thay did not win last three home game.I aspect dificult game.Bouth team have not problems with injured or missed players.


SP Line Koper v Drava
I agree with analysis of FeirB...I see value in this odds
so my pick is Koper to win 1.877 3/10 10bet gl



Nafta v Gorica
Last year in 35. round in Lendava (nafta v gorica) wos after 23 minutes 0:4 !!!Everybody spouk about fiksed game...but today is new game...
Nafta is complete, Gorica have Krsic and Demirovic (injured long time),M Kovacevic and Zivec (inj. bouth important midefelder players) and suspend Dedic (gorica have good replacement for him).
Nafta couch Milko Đurovski take the maximum of this team but question is how long can this going on because Nafta don't have enough quality players.I give a smole advantage to home team with protecting a draw.
my pick is Nafta to win 2.820 3/10 10bet gl

[FeriB]

Domzale - Publikum DRAW @5.00

Really no value at all taking Domzale at those odds.
The game cam imo go two ways. Domzale could escape with an early goal and
then easily finish the game and secondly, imo more probable Publikum after some
better results lately can give Domzale a hard time and the game would or wouldn't
be decide at the end of the game. Therefore a small stake on the draw as I
don't believe Publikum could get away with all 3 points, bur surely they could
upset by taking a point.

1/10

[skin8]

great stuff here FeriB and vaninio ....appreciated !!

[FeriB]

Primorje - Factor+1 @4.20 bet-at-home

Quite identical thoughts than for the Domzale game, just that I think Primorje
after two really heavy games could have even more problems beating Factor.
The Factor team gained a lot of confidence (in words of coach Rus and the players)
after playing a good game vs Koper and luckily drawing it at the end. They were
at least equal and the draw at the end was justified.
Primorje are a bit too high in the tables, also due to a very easy fixtures at
the beginning, but they are not the highest quality team of the league and therefore
vulnerable evn more after such a streak of hard championship and cup games. Small stakes.

2/10

[FeriB]

Thanks skin8.

Hope to earn some!


@vaninio

I watched the Maribor - Nafta game and besides it was a very good game (good pace)
Maribor was the better team untill they remained with 10 men and Nafta scored
some "Eurogoals". Also Maribor was still much weakened for that game.


As much as I'm a Nafta fan (which I am ) I don't think they'll just be lucky
one more time... They have some good players like former NT Pavlovic, Ceh (from Drava),
Benko (their goalgetter) is back after injury and the new guys show some good skills,
but I still see the quality and also the momentum on the other side

[FeriB]

FTs

Primorje : Factor 3:1 (0:1)
Arnaut 60., Ostojic 63., Zatkovic 83.; Begovic 43.

Nafta : HiT Gorica 2:0 (1:0)
Pavlovič 20./11-m, Eterovic 94

Koper : Drava 1:0 (1:0)
Nilton 10.

Maribor : Bela krajina 3:0 (1:0)
Vuksanovic 9., Mihelic 52., 73.

Domzale - Publikum 0-0