POLAND Ekstraklasa 10th May

[Honest Al the punters pal]

Hi can any Polish league experts give me their opinion and any information about the RUCH CHORZOW V JAGIELLONIA BIALYSTOK match please...

I think RUCH are maybe an average team but they are at home and their last 6 home games they have won 2 drawn 3 and lost 1. In those games they have scored 8 goals and conceded 8 goals. Jagiellonia have lost ALL of their last 6 away games! Goals scored 3 and conceded 22!
Can anyone tell me why Jagiellonia are so bad? 22 goals in 6 games???

I think Ruch offer very good value at 7/4 with the book makers but would like to try and find out some more facts and information from someone who knows this league...

Thank you

[Blackstock]

Hi, I'm from Bialystok and maybe the things I'm going to write wouldn't be "strictly objective" but I can't see Ruch winning today.
There are 3 matches which will finally decide if LKS, Jagiellonia or Polonia Bytom would be relegated (oh, it's bad "word"... The team which would have the worst record after today's matches will play in playoffs with 3rd or 4th team from League 2).

Polish league table:
...
2. Legia 60 points
3. Groclin 57 points
4. Lech 57 points
...
12. Polonia 28 points
13. Jagiellonia 27 points
14. LKS 27 points
_________________________
15. Widzew
16. Zaglebie (those 2 teams are already relegated)



1. Ruch is safe and have nothing to play for. Jagiellonia, one of the "winter surprises" (24 points in winter), in spring managed to reach only 4 points and desperatelly need at least draw in today's match to avoid playoffs. I'm personally trying to be on every Jagiellonia game, home or away (today due to work I coudn't travel to Chorzow) and last 4 matches were really well played. They lost with polish league champion Wisla 2-1 (while Wisla played with the strongest squad), with Odra (in fact, first half was really great but in second something happened and J.Wos scored twice - those were one of the most beautiful goals in his long career... "shots of his life"), with Lech 5-1 (till the end of first half the result was 1-1 draw. Second half Jagiellonia was down to 9 men... None of those red cards were "fair") and finally 3 days ago with Legia 2-1, where Legia scored from penalty in 90th minute due to the stupidity of our goalkeeper (hopefully he won't play today). Jagiellonia weren;t playing bad. They simply suffered the lack of luck. Today is the most important game for them and they have abillities to get at least 1 point against "safe" Ruch. One thing matters me - Ruch and Polonia Bytom (team which is also fighting against relegation and plays today with Legia away) like each other lately and maybe according to "the coalition of the slask teams" (slask is a region in Poland where Chorzow and Bytom are situated) Ruch would like to help their friends. But...

2. Polonia is playing away against Legia, which is fighting for 2nd place and a start in UEFA. A draw would be brilliant result for them, as Lech and Groclin (which are on 3rd and 4th places) need to win their matches and depend on the fact Legia might loose. I don't know the squads for today match, but I can't see legia loosing home at the end of the season. Polish league is far enough "fixed" to make such things like Polonia win in Warsaw during last match.

3. Lech, which is still fighting for 2nd place, playes against LKS. First of all I shall mention a situation which took place 10 in early 90. when Lech played also against Polonia, there was a draw (it wasn't for sure clear game according to the observators) and due to this result Jagiellonia was relegated. I DON'T BELIEVE SUCH THINGT WOULD HAPPEN AGAIN !!! Polish leauge is so "dirty" (during the whole season and especially matches beong played 3 days ago, on Wednesday) that noone would imagine that today something would be decided before the plays start... (i hope so).
So Lech desperatelly needs to win today (odds for them are 1.4 and it's not stupid to add this to any accy) and pray for Legia to loose. Lech's coach is still complaining on referees after Wednesday's match, when 2 goals scored for Lech were voided, and the game finished with a 2-2 draw. And this fact makes today's game really really important, if they want to think of UEFA.


Finally, if everything would go as I think, LKS would play in playoffs, Polonia would manage to get draw today and Jagiellonia wouldn't loose.

But these are only my thought and (let's say) "dirty theory"

Anyway, according to your question. Jagiellonia is not playing bad. They simply don't have luck in last matches, especially against Lech (away) and Legia (home). The results are not always showing how in fact the team plays. So draw is really possible... And I believe something more. Only goalkeeper is excluded for today's game (what is a advantage more than loss), the rest of the players are fit.

I've gone for:
Ruch - Jagiellonia x2 (1.7) - double chance
Lech - LKS 1 (1.4)
ako 2.2

Good luck to you all !!!

[Blackstock]

And one more thing. Odds for Jagiellonia are heavilly droping. Yesterday (for example) in Bet-at-home, it was 3.2, and now is 2.55 Almost everywhere odds are going down...

[ScorpioRed]

Legia is already in UEFA and playing for nothing... they are the cup finalist with Wisla, that goes to CL qual. groups... So the result of the cup final doesnt matter, they get UEFA ticket..

[ScorpioRed]

I think you made a mistake, Lech was playing away with Polonia, not LSK.. They are playing LSK today

[Blackstock]

But anyway all the time they are repeating they want to achieve 2nd place in this year.
That's why a draw seems quite good.

[Blackstock]

Originally Posted by ScorpioRed

I think you made a mistake, Lech was playing away with Polonia, not LSK.. They are playing LSK today

You're right I was thinking faster than writing

Anyway, I've fixed it and now everything should be ok.

[ScorpioRed]

But if you look at the fix of Lech - Polonia, might be much safer to go for X2 Someone might like Polonia to be safe... ofcourse, if LSK loses, as they will, Polonia dont have to even draw... to be safe

So lets see if its Groclin or Lech who gets the 2nd UEFA ticket.

Originally Posted by Blackstock

But anyway all the time they are repeating they want to achieve 2nd place in this year.
That's why a draw seems quite good.

[Honest Al the punters pal]

A big thank you for that guys (I must say that your English is excellent by the way).
The odds in England are 2.7 for the Jagiellonia win, 2.5 for the Ruch win or 1.8 for the Ruch win DNB (which is the bet I am interested in). Under the right circumstances I consider this type of bet to be a 'free' bet and at the worst get my money back with the draw...
I can fully appreciate what you say about 'luck' in a game and even in a couple of games but to lose ALL 6 of their last 6 away games is not 'bad luck' my friend... It is also not 'bad luck' to concede 22 goals in 6 games. I think maybe that your team is having a bad season!
If Ruch had been away I would NOT be interested in this match for the very good reasons that you have mentioned and obviously the 'politics' of Polish football will play it's part.
I hope your team avoids relegation my friend and good luck with your own betting...let me know if there is anything you ever need to know about the English leagues or teams...

[Blackstock]

I'm not worried about Polonia, which is in the most comfortable situation of all 3 teams fighting not to be relegated. I don't know if you've seen controversial situations from Lech-Polonia game on Wednesday. If it wasn't fix then what ??

I really can't see LKS winning in Poznan against Lech. The City of Poznan has already started the renovation of the stadium in case of UEFA ticket. There are almost 25.000 people coming to see their team every weekend what is in Poland a precedens Do you think they won't win ??

[ScorpioRed]

I'll personally go for Polonia +0.5 AH and Lech -1 AH in double

[Blackstock]

Originally Posted by Honest Al the punters pal

A big thank you for that guys (I must say that your English is excellent by the way).
I can fully appreciate what you say about 'luck' in a game and even in a couple of games but to lose ALL 6 of their last 6 away games is not 'bad luck' my friend... It is also not 'bad luck' to concede 22 goals in 6 games. I think maybe that your team is having a bad season!
If Ruch had been away I would NOT be interested in this match for the very good reasons that you have mentioned and obviously the 'politics' of Polish football will play it's part.
I hope your team avoids relegation my friend and good luck with your own betting...let me know if there is anything you ever need to know about the English leagues or teams...

Thanks... I will let You know, but probably next season as far as tomorrow EPL finishes

The fact is that after "winter session" we didn't make any transfers. We've sold 2 players without putting "new blood" into their places. But the worst thing is that at the beggining of spring, our coach (who in fact was dismissed after game against Odra) said in a local newspaper, that Jagiellonia needs ONLY 7 points during spring to avoid being relegeted (in winter we achieved 24 points and 9th position in table). And probably he made one of the biggest mistakes in his coach career. Players started to complain about money, conditions in club, knowing that they need only to win 2 matches and 1 draw. Draw appeared against LKS, won came against Sosnowiec (which is the worst team)... But what about 3 points left?? Watching Jagiellonia matches, people might think that players are only "statists" (i don't know if I use correct word... but I hope You understand) - no energy, no fun, no will of getting anything from the matches.

But after coach dismissal (after game against Odra, so in fact, 2 matches ago), they really started to "fight" (it might look they were playing against him... and that kind of situations appeared in Bialystok in the past... Players didn't like coach so they were doing everything to make him resign). And believe me, I've seen game against Lech away and in the first half everything was perfect. 1-1 at HT was great result. But in 48 minute we got red card (which in fact wasn't fairly given to our player, and special commision made this card void due to ref's mistake), in 58 we got second red ( our captain Markiewicz got 2 yellows, in fact second of them - according to the commision - was also a mistake). So how it's possible to play 9 against 11 + ref (there were lots of strange decisions...)?? And against Legia? Till 90th minute everything was ok. And penalty made us again suffering lack of points (I know that it was home game, but anyway - Legia, 2nd place in the league, came with really strong squad... In comparison to their previous game against Ruch when they left in Warsaw 7 or 8 players from the first squad).

And now, take into consideration that Ruch is in fact safe at 10 or 11 place (I don't see the table now...) and they play for "nothing". As I've mentioned before - they might help Polonia avoiding relegation, but as far as Polonia have 28 points (a point more than LKS ang Jagiellonia) and Legia probably won't play their full squad today (they need to rest players before Poland Cup Final against Wisla in midweek), Polonia is able to get something from this game without help.

Important to add is Lech Poznan position. They DESPERATELLY need to win against LKS. But I don't think any team would wait till something happens on the different ground.


I dare say my team's having bad season. I have to admitt, that winter was pretty well, the beggining of spring (those 4 points) also ok. And today, it's their most important game against playing for nothing (i know I'm repeating this fact 3rd time) Ruch. After last game (Legia home), one of the best players in our team, R.Kaluzny (some of you may remember him as a national team player few years ago...) came to us (I mean fans), took the microphone and apologized publicly for their last games. He asked also for support in Chorzow and promised they would play with commitment as they presented against Legia, Wisla and even Lech (they were trying not to defend, but still playing 9 against 11 to create some offensive actions). And I believe him

That's why draw is the most possible result for this game. But, if something goes "strange" somewhere on a different field, Jagiellonia may even achieve 3 points


If you decide to play on Ruch, I can't wish You luck my friend anyway...

But good luck with the rest of your bets !!!

[Honest Al the punters pal]

Blackstock.... Having now studied the league more closely (and not just the stats), as I am a football betting man I have decided to stay away from this match. Thank you it was your information which made me study the league more closely. And it doesn't matter whether Ruch now win 10 nil to me, that is MY decision. The main factor for me in this decision is the fact (which you kindly pointed out), that Ruch have nothing to play for. I believe very much in player commitment and motivation and I think it is the same in all country's that players become disinterested as soon as their club is no longer competing to either win something or stay up. I may also be cynical but I also personally believe that some players themselves gamble heavily on football and if a few 'team mates' get together I am sure they can win a lot of money sometimes (especially when there is nothing to play for!).
I am a Chelsea fan and have been for many years and so I do not know the pain you are going through...the one thing I do know is that although I am a semi pro gambler I will NEVER bet on Chelsea because they are too close to my heart. Thank you once again for your advice and time my friend...

[Blackstock]

No problem . As far as I can and have possibilities, I'm trying to give advice, especially when it all goes around the team I support. And I have to admit that I really rarely bet on my team. However, today I think it is worth it

You mentioned players gambling. I don't know how it looks in England, but in Poland it was (I don't know if still is) quite popular. It was even quite common to meet a football player in booking centre . Each year we observe lots of strage results. even now, when the "idea of corruption in polish football" should come to an end (I'm affraid we won't be in fact organising Euro 2012 due to the mess in our football association but it's a long story not connected with the subject matter). And according to this, I really think Jagiellonia will get something from this game. Looking at the odds droping, it makes me feel more comfortable with the result.

Maybe I'm making a mistake trying to tell everyone that Jagiellonia gets a point or the whole 3 and it's in fact more connected with my will and "hope" than with players form... Anyway, I strongly believe that after the matches I've seen lately, motivation and commitment would be the strongest factor which leads my team to avoid relegation.

Thanks for a conversation It is always nice for me to think a while and write some thoughs in English

[Blackstock]

I anyone is still interested in Ruch-Jagiellonia match, I've seen full squads of both teams, and as far as Jagiellonia is playing with the full strenght (all of the first team players are available), Ruch is testing for the first time young players and new formation. The most important players sit on the bench or weren't even in the match protocol.

Maybe Ruch really isn't taking this game seriously?? And will try to check new players and tactic than finding their chance to win??

[Blackstock]

Forget everything I've written above

[Honest Al the punters pal]

Originally Posted by Blackstock

I anyone is still interested in Ruch-Jagiellonia match, I've seen full squads of both teams, and as far as Jagiellonia is playing with the full strenght (all of the first team players are available), Ruch is testing for the first time young players and new formation. The most important players sit on the bench or weren't even in the match protocol.

Maybe Ruch really isn't taking this game seriously?? And will try to check new players and tactic than finding their chance to win??

....Blackstock, please don't worry about the outcome of this for me, because I replaced this bet with a game in the Bundesliga 1 which won also. I would not have taken the German bet IF I had placed my bet on Ruch and so it works out roughly the same for me anyway.
I just think you need to start supporting a different team my friend!

[Blackstock]

Originally Posted by Honest Al the punters pal

....Blackstock, please don't worry about the outcome of this for me, because I replaced this bet with a game in the Bundesliga 1 which won also. I would not have taken the German bet IF I had placed my bet on Ruch and so it works out roughly the same for me anyway.
I just think you need to start supporting a different team my friend!

"Proud when winning, faithfull when losing"

[Honest Al the punters pal]

Originally Posted by Blackstock

"Proud when winning, faithfull when losing"

With your team you must be VERY faithful mate!