US Open QF Onwards

[mrmuzeman]

I see what youre saying but I did actually PROMISE myself I wouldnt ever bet on a Henman match after that fuc@!kin Kiefer match.

Ive backed Hewitt for the tourny anyway as you know so I can cheer for Henman on the pure fact if he gets through Hewitt will most likely win me a 10/1 shot bet!

[mrmuzeman]

Also for those wishing to Lay Federer for the title he is available at 1.68 or sumthing on the BIG TWO market at betfair. For some reason this is better value than laying Federer on his own when the big two consists of Roddick (whos obviously out) and Federer. They should be the same odds to be honest.

[mrmuzeman]

Actually Jeffers mate bugger it im not gonna just back Henman to beat Federer im gonna back him for the tourny! :smokin

Ive seen his odds on betfair at 15.00 so ive had a small punt on that. The way I see it if Henman wins he'll go at the very least a 2/1 shot in the final at which point I can lay off for a lot of profit.

Also if Hewitt beats JJ which I think he will i'll have a 10/1 shot v a 14/1 shot ive both backed against eachother in the final which would be waa waa wee wah!

Whatdya reckon?

[jeffers]

Interesting idea mm, as you know I think Henman will beat Federer so go for it.

10pts Hewitt tb Johansson @ 1.29 Betfair
Hewitt will dance JJ around the court like a loon here. He'll get serves back, and make JJ play one more ball. This should be a fairly comfortable victory.

[jeffers]

10pts Hewitt -1.5 tb Johansson @ 1.45 Betfair
Same as above

[jeffers]

Lay to win 10pts Federer tb Henman 3-0 @ Betfair
Too short this price I think. Basically same reasoning as Tim to win outright this match - really can't see him failing to get a set.

[edtkh]

No offence, guys - once again, I seem the odd one out here. :b I just wouldn't see past a Federer 3-0 scoreline here as he's looked to have recaptured some of his pre-Cincinnati form in this tournament(Agassi aside, he's looked as convincing as ever in all his other matches; even for the Agassi match, I thought he just showed the mental strength he had in abundance to draw on to put a rejuvenated crowd faovurite to the sword). For me, an in-form Federer is well capable of beating anyone 3-0, nevermind Henman. Given Henman's form and the number of hours he's spent on court thus far(and to further consider the fact Henman's no longer in his early 20's). Maybe, I'd just back the Federer 3-1 as a saver - there's just no way I can see Henman pushing this to 5 sets.

Henman IMO is by far the worst of the 4 semi-finalists around - he's probably had the easiest draw of the 4 and really, he hasn't really been tested much till now. So to have been taken to 5 sets on more than one occasion is hardly any cause for encouragement when you're up against the finest player in the world. He's had all the undeserved luck to put him where he is - sadly, I just see that streak ending tonight. Karlovic and Tabara are hardly opponents of a player of semi-final calibre in a Grand Slam would take to 5 sets and he was obviously lucky to have met an injured Kiefer en route as well. Dropping sets against Golmard and Hrbaty(alright, I shall cut him some slack here :b ) would hardly serve to further aid his cause to win that elusive Grand Slam. It's just a total mismatch IMO even though Henman leads 6-2 on h2h.

[dave]

Henman IMO is by far the worst of the 4 semi-finalists

Err, how exactly?

Champions Race

R Federer 1
L Hewitt 4
T Henman 7
J Johansson 28

So despite Henman being 21 places ahead of JJ you think that Henman is by far the worst semi-finalist? Crazy. And he's only 3 places behind Hewitt - not exactly far behind is it?

I'm not betting in this match, anything could happen, but you really are underestimating Henman.

[edtkh]

Err, how exactly?

Champions Race

R Federer 1
L Hewitt 4
T Henman 7
J Johansson 28

So despite Henman being 21 places ahead of JJ you think that Henman is by far the worst semi-finalist? Crazy. And he's only 3 places behind Hewitt - not exactly far behind is it?

I'm not betting in this match, anything could happen, but you really are underestimating Henman.

How is the Champions Race any sort of a gauge? I mean, how then do you account for a 28th seed beating a 2nd seed then? If there was so much logic to be derived from the Champions Race, surely we shouldn't see a 28th seed playing in the semis? I think it's plain naive to subscribe to the myth of reading too much into one's rank. :b Maybe you could have a flutter on Henman since he leads 6-2 on h2h in matchups with Henman.

Anyway, in a nutshell, I don't see this being any other than a 3-0(or at worse 3-1) scoreline for Federer. Good luck whatever your picks though...

[dave]

Well, it proves that he isn't "by far the worst of the 4 semi-finalists"

He may well lose 3-0, but that is a ridiculous statement to make

[edtkh]

dave, I said he's by far the worst of the semi-finalists IMO. I may not be speaking for you(or any others out there who think along your wavelength) but I've seen enough to remain convinced he's the worst of the lot. :b

I don't think it's hard to see Federer and Hewitt are the better two amongst the 4(something you'll probably agree yourself). To suggest Henman has been better than Johansson is a bit of a laugh IMO - Johansson has dispatched of 3 unheralded opponents in straight sets, dropping a set to Koubek en route to the semis. Perhaps, his small achievement of beating the defending champ and the no.2 seed Roddick in 5 sets would count for little in comparison with the 'massive' achievements of Henman who has taken 2 opponents(who would probably be considered mediocre at best in the minds of most people) to 5 sets.

We'll see about that - it certainly takes an awful lot of convincing there though however plausible it may seem to you... :b

And anyway, good luck for your bets tonight(especially so if you are backing Henman)

[mrmuzeman]

I see both points of view here and yes Fed probably will win. I took some of the 13/1 on Henman for the title so I could lay off cos I think this is value which is fair enough.

I would disagree about Federer being in top form though, he dropped a set to someone earlier in the tourny and got through to Agassi courtesy of a walkover. Also beaten in a couple of tournys before this in early rounds.

[dave]

good luck for your bets tonight(especially so if you are backing Henman)

Already stated i'm not betting on this match. Have backed Hewitt though

[edtkh]

Now that Henman's trailing 3-6, 4-6 after the first 2 sets, it'd be nice to see if he can turn the table on Fed with his seemingly favoured 5-setters...

[jeffers]

What's that supposed to mean edtkh?

[mrmuzeman]

Surely outstanding value on hewitt to win the tournament at Betfair 3.45

Ive had some of that on principle, no way should it be as big as this. I understand Federer being the favourite but Hewitt no worse than a 6/4 shot in my book.

[edtkh]

What's that supposed to mean edtkh?

Don't we all just love(or shall I say, hate) Henman for eternally taking things right to the wire when he's in control, often robbing us off a few bob along the way ever so often? For all the unnecessary 5 setters he'd played en route to the semis, I'm sure he's cost quite a few some quid.

Was just wondering if he could pull out his 5-set masterclass last night after going 2 down since he always seems to derive some pleasure(he must love 5 setters given the way and frequency with which it features in his matches) from doing so. Anyway, poetic justice was done(rather, I honestly thought Tim's overdue and undeserved luck had finally run out) on that cnut who's cost me a good few bob down the years - and I have obviously got Federer's 3-0 to thank for. :b

[edtkh]

Surely outstanding value on hewitt to win the tournament at Betfair 3.45

Ive had some of that on principle, no way should it be as big as this. I understand Federer being the favourite but Hewitt no worse than a 6/4 shot in my book.

mrmuzeman, much as I agree with you on the value of Hewitt, it's certainly something I wouldn't touch on the basis of Federer's form at the moment. With so much at stake(becoming the first player to win 3 Slams in a year since Wilander in 88 being one of those feats attainable), it's hard to imagine Federer will be anything but his best - I know Federer's form wasn't superb coming into this tournament, but he's looked to be getting ever better as each match progresses in the tournament.

Hewitt, on the other hand, has been hammering all and sundry in straight sets but I guess it's fair to say he's yet to be tested by any player of real substance(ie.someone who comes close to matching him in terms of ability) en route to the semis and he's obviously come into this tournament on a very good run that saw him take 3 titles before the US Open(his last defeat came in the Cicinnati Masters final to Agassi). While Hewitt holds a 7-5 h2h lead over Federer, it must be noted Hewitt has lost his last 3 meetings with Federer this year.

Much as I fancy Hewitt as a player and my heart would clearly point me towards backing him, my head just seems to be nudging me towards Federer - personally, I think I will still plump for Federer at 1.40 and maybe have a little dabble on the Federer 3-1 scoreline. :b

Don't let me put you off backing Hewitt though...

[jeffers]

I'm not backing anybody because I have a decent bet on Hewitt already, and I still think Hewitt will win

edtkh, I hope you're not one of these people who likes to knock Henman are you ?

[edtkh]

edtkh, I hope you're not one of these people who likes to knock Henman are you ?

Putting it mildly, I certainly ain't no Henman fan - are you? Eh, but we shan't go there, shall we?


As for tonight's final, it's certainly an interesting matchup and would be a great spectacle for the purists. Would be nice to see who would lose the first slam final of his career...