US Open QF Onwards - The Punters Lounge

jeffers · 09-09-2004, 16:27

2pts Johansson to win 1st set v Roddick @ 5.50 Paddy Power
This is a big price I think. JJs serve is big, and there's every chance this could go to a tiebreak. It's more a value bet than a certainty...I'd have this priced more like Chandler's 3/1.

5pts Johansson +2.5 sets @ 2.06 Betfair
Too big. Good player JJ, up and coming and will take Roddick out of his "comfort zone" today, something he has yet to come across in this year's tournament.

If anyone is into spreads, I'd certainly be buying Cross-Courts (86) and total games (35) as they are both too low for an encounter with 2 massive servers.

Tulenos · 09-09-2004, 17:57

Johansson +2.5 is @ 2.20 @ Betinterenet.

jeffers · 09-09-2004, 18:38

cheers Tulenos :b

jeffers · 09-09-2004, 19:07

And it's now 2.46 at Betfair

Tulenos · 09-09-2004, 20:59

Well, you never know with the public. Sometimes you are slow and the price shortens in a matter of minutes, sometimes you are fast like hell and the f*ck*ng price eases incredibly. And I thought BetInternet guys were being generous.

With you on Johansson on cap.

BTW - Hewitt is also a tiny bit higher than yesterday.

jeffers · 09-09-2004, 22:27

I dunno which way to go with Betfair sometimes, early price or wait :evil

Ended up with a shite price on this one

09-09-2004, 22:58

A nice bet on this one, unfortunately price changed now.
Total games
Up to and including 35 games - 2.50 Paddy Power
Over 32.5 games - 1.75 Globet
Arb plus chance of winning both bets if total games are 33, 34 or 35.
These things come along every so often.

I have had 2 before, both of which (amazingly) won on both bets.
Euro 2004 total goals
Over 73.5 inc extra time, and under 75 goals not including extra time, Expekt and Stan James. Ended up 74 goals in normal time, so double win (though I had laid it off before the final to ensure a win).

There was another one which needed a darts game to finish 13-8 for me to win both. Amazingly it did.
Won on 2 handicaps. One had +5.5 legs and the other fella was -4.5 legs. Priestley vs someone in the recent Matchplay championship.
Happy days.

2damnhype · 09-09-2004, 23:06

Hi Fluff

you are gonna make a lot of new friends here if your first two posts are anything to go by.

(should I have posted this in the 'ironic' thread in GC?)

10-09-2004, 00:11

Im with you guys on Johansson +2.5 sets.
40pts @2.4 Betfair
Battle of serves here. Johansson very good campaign till now. I think he has only been broken twice in 4 matches and dropped one set in tie-break. Rodd in my opinion favourite to win this match, but for not giving a chance of winning at least one set by Johansson, bookies should be punished :p . Definitely tie-break at some point in the game.
Good luck guys.

edtkh · 10-09-2004, 01:33

Looks like I'm the odd one here who fancies a 3-0 scoreline in favour of Roddick. :b

In all honesty - much as I admire Johansson's serves - I am not convinced he has what it takes to take anything away from Roddick. Afterall, Roddick's serve has just been broken once so far in this tournament and it'd certainly take a brave man to back him on that score.
Obviously, I can see where people are coming from for those who believe - given the nature of the big-serving duo - Johansson(working on mathematical propability anyway) could take at least 1 set if this should turn out to be one of those matches where breaks of serves are at its absolute minimum. Nevertheless, I'm just not convinced Johansson can take Roddick's game that far(considering I can't see him breaking Roddick's serve and in all probability, winning via a tiebreak would perhaps be the only way to win the +2.5 bet).

Personally, I thought it might make more sense for those interested in the +2.5 to back the Roddick 3-1(4.4 @ Betfair) instead as that, realistically(since most are convinced Roddick would win the match) could represent better value(I just wouldn't fancy Johansson to come anywhere close to pushing Roddick to 5 sets). I'll be on Roddick 3-0 myself for this one.

So, good luck whatever your picks. :b

mrmuzeman · 10-09-2004, 02:24

Your post makes a lot of sense there edtkh.

I think you are right on the value of the 3-1 to Roddick as I think 50% chance Roddick 3-0, 50% Roddick 3-1. I cant see JJ taking anymore than a set but I can see him squeezing one out of the first 2 sets somewhere.

Might have a pop at the 3-1 scoreline but I wouldnt be suprised to see another great show from Roddick.

mrmuzeman · 10-09-2004, 04:58

Ive gone for a small bet (1.5pts) on the Roddick 3-1 scoreline. 1st or 2nd set tiebreak says I! Lets hope so

4.33 @ Coral seems like a good value bet to me

jeffers · 10-09-2004, 05:24

Good pick, for some reason I didn't think of that. Nice price too. I actually have a small gut feeling this could go 5 personally.

Tulenos · 10-09-2004, 06:07

Now Hewitt seems to be home and hosed without much effort. The wind is terrible though.

jeffers · 10-09-2004, 06:16

The wind is a bit of a shambles to be honest. No crowd either, farcical.

As soon as I saw the wind conditions I lumped on Hewitt even more as it put the thing perfectly in his favour. Easy win, the guy is looking awesome and is still too big a price outright

Tulenos · 10-09-2004, 06:31

This is simply because he is to defeat both Roddick (or JAh. which may change the whole story) and Federer who are both heavily odds on to make the final. The wind must have played havoc in Federer's head today as he made so many unforced errors (which really looked like being caused by the wind and unsettled conditions). We'll see. Hewitt looks hot at the moment and may be in with a chance.

jeffers · 10-09-2004, 06:40

I think he's in with more than a chance. He should not be the price he is - it's just the overhype of Fed & Roddick that pushes his price up. I know I have a great bet at 10/1 outright on Hewitt :b

Bring on Super Saturday, gonna be awesome

Tulenos · 10-09-2004, 06:46

Good luck. I am on Federer but not that convinced after today's display.

mrmuzeman · 10-09-2004, 06:58

I got on to the 10/1 pre tourny for Hewitt as well. Only had a small stake on it though which im quite pissed off about! Do you think Hewitt has a decent chance against roddick Jeffers?

jeffers · 10-09-2004, 08:09

I think he'll beat Roddick, I won't say easily, but he'll have him under control I reckon. He'll dominate Roddick from the back of the court and mix it up enough to make Roddick do things he isn't confortable with (like volleying

)

This is Hewitt's tourny

09-09-2004, 16:27	#1 (permalink)
jeffers Antipodean Punter Join Date: 16 Jul 2001 Location: In your face Age: 27 Posts: 3,880	US Open QF Onwards 2pts Johansson to win 1st set v Roddick @ 5.50 Paddy Power This is a big price I think. JJs serve is big, and there's every chance this could go to a tiebreak. It's more a value bet than a certainty...I'd have this priced more like Chandler's 3/1. 5pts Johansson +2.5 sets @ 2.06 Betfair Too big. Good player JJ, up and coming and will take Roddick out of his "comfort zone" today, something he has yet to come across in this year's tournament. If anyone is into spreads, I'd certainly be buying Cross-Courts (86) and total games (35) as they are both too low for an encounter with 2 massive servers.

09-09-2004, 17:57	#2 (permalink)
Tulenos Bohemian NHL Punter Join Date: 02 May 2001 Location: Prague Age: 38 Posts: 11,759	US Open QF Onwards Johansson +2.5 is @ 2.20 @ Betinterenet.

09-09-2004, 18:38	#3 (permalink)
jeffers Antipodean Punter Join Date: 16 Jul 2001 Location: In your face Age: 27 Posts: 3,880	Re: US Open QF Onwards cheers Tulenos :b

09-09-2004, 19:07	#4 (permalink)
jeffers Antipodean Punter Join Date: 16 Jul 2001 Location: In your face Age: 27 Posts: 3,880	US Open QF Onwards And it's now 2.46 at Betfair

09-09-2004, 20:59	#5 (permalink)
Tulenos Bohemian NHL Punter Join Date: 02 May 2001 Location: Prague Age: 38 Posts: 11,759	US Open QF Onwards Well, you never know with the public. Sometimes you are slow and the price shortens in a matter of minutes, sometimes you are fast like hell and the fckng price eases incredibly. And I thought BetInternet guys were being generous. With you on Johansson on cap. BTW - Hewitt is also a tiny bit higher than yesterday.

09-09-2004, 22:27	#6 (permalink)
jeffers Antipodean Punter Join Date: 16 Jul 2001 Location: In your face Age: 27 Posts: 3,880	Re: US Open QF Onwards I dunno which way to go with Betfair sometimes, early price or wait :evil Ended up with a shite price on this one

09-09-2004, 22:58	#7 (permalink)
Fluff Guest Posts: n/a	Johansson v Roddick A nice bet on this one, unfortunately price changed now. Total games Up to and including 35 games - 2.50 Paddy Power Over 32.5 games - 1.75 Globet Arb plus chance of winning both bets if total games are 33, 34 or 35. These things come along every so often. I have had 2 before, both of which (amazingly) won on both bets. Euro 2004 total goals Over 73.5 inc extra time, and under 75 goals not including extra time, Expekt and Stan James. Ended up 74 goals in normal time, so double win (though I had laid it off before the final to ensure a win). There was another one which needed a darts game to finish 13-8 for me to win both. Amazingly it did. Won on 2 handicaps. One had +5.5 legs and the other fella was -4.5 legs. Priestley vs someone in the recent Matchplay championship. Happy days.

09-09-2004, 23:06	#8 (permalink)
2damnhype Legendary Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 1,623	Re: Johansson v Roddick Hi Fluff you are gonna make a lot of new friends here if your first two posts are anything to go by. (should I have posted this in the 'ironic' thread in GC?)

10-09-2004, 00:11	#9 (permalink)
heniek31 Guest Posts: n/a	Re: Johansson v Roddick Im with you guys on Johansson +2.5 sets. 40pts @2.4 Betfair Battle of serves here. Johansson very good campaign till now. I think he has only been broken twice in 4 matches and dropped one set in tie-break. Rodd in my opinion favourite to win this match, but for not giving a chance of winning at least one set by Johansson, bookies should be punished :p . Definitely tie-break at some point in the game. Good luck guys.

10-09-2004, 01:33	#10 (permalink)
edtkh Legendary Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 2,474	Re: Johansson v Roddick Looks like I'm the odd one here who fancies a 3-0 scoreline in favour of Roddick. :b In all honesty - much as I admire Johansson's serves - I am not convinced he has what it takes to take anything away from Roddick. Afterall, Roddick's serve has just been broken once so far in this tournament and it'd certainly take a brave man to back him on that score. Obviously, I can see where people are coming from for those who believe - given the nature of the big-serving duo - Johansson(working on mathematical propability anyway) could take at least 1 set if this should turn out to be one of those matches where breaks of serves are at its absolute minimum. Nevertheless, I'm just not convinced Johansson can take Roddick's game that far(considering I can't see him breaking Roddick's serve and in all probability, winning via a tiebreak would perhaps be the only way to win the +2.5 bet). Personally, I thought it might make more sense for those interested in the +2.5 to back the Roddick 3-1(4.4 @ Betfair) instead as that, realistically(since most are convinced Roddick would win the match) could represent better value(I just wouldn't fancy Johansson to come anywhere close to pushing Roddick to 5 sets). I'll be on Roddick 3-0 myself for this one. So, good luck whatever your picks. :b

10-09-2004, 02:24	#11 (permalink)
mrmuzeman Deal Me Fcuking In Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Location: Horsham, West sussex Age: 25 Posts: 1,660	yes Your post makes a lot of sense there edtkh. I think you are right on the value of the 3-1 to Roddick as I think 50% chance Roddick 3-0, 50% Roddick 3-1. I cant see JJ taking anymore than a set but I can see him squeezing one out of the first 2 sets somewhere. Might have a pop at the 3-1 scoreline but I wouldnt be suprised to see another great show from Roddick.

10-09-2004, 04:58	#12 (permalink)
mrmuzeman Deal Me Fcuking In Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Location: Horsham, West sussex Age: 25 Posts: 1,660	3-1 Ive gone for a small bet (1.5pts) on the Roddick 3-1 scoreline. 1st or 2nd set tiebreak says I! Lets hope so 4.33 @ Coral seems like a good value bet to me

10-09-2004, 05:24	#13 (permalink)
jeffers Antipodean Punter Join Date: 16 Jul 2001 Location: In your face Age: 27 Posts: 3,880	Re: 3-1 Good pick, for some reason I didn't think of that. Nice price too. I actually have a small gut feeling this could go 5 personally.

10-09-2004, 06:07	#14 (permalink)
Tulenos Bohemian NHL Punter Join Date: 02 May 2001 Location: Prague Age: 38 Posts: 11,759	US Open QF Onwards Now Hewitt seems to be home and hosed without much effort. The wind is terrible though.

10-09-2004, 06:16	#15 (permalink)
jeffers Antipodean Punter Join Date: 16 Jul 2001 Location: In your face Age: 27 Posts: 3,880	Re: US Open QF Onwards The wind is a bit of a shambles to be honest. No crowd either, farcical. As soon as I saw the wind conditions I lumped on Hewitt even more as it put the thing perfectly in his favour. Easy win, the guy is looking awesome and is still too big a price outright

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10-09-2004, 06:31	#16 (permalink)
Tulenos Bohemian NHL Punter Join Date: 02 May 2001 Location: Prague Age: 38 Posts: 11,759	US Open QF Onwards This is simply because he is to defeat both Roddick (or JAh. which may change the whole story) and Federer who are both heavily odds on to make the final. The wind must have played havoc in Federer's head today as he made so many unforced errors (which really looked like being caused by the wind and unsettled conditions). We'll see. Hewitt looks hot at the moment and may be in with a chance.

10-09-2004, 06:40	#17 (permalink)
jeffers Antipodean Punter Join Date: 16 Jul 2001 Location: In your face Age: 27 Posts: 3,880	Re: US Open QF Onwards I think he's in with more than a chance. He should not be the price he is - it's just the overhype of Fed & Roddick that pushes his price up. I know I have a great bet at 10/1 outright on Hewitt :b Bring on Super Saturday, gonna be awesome

10-09-2004, 06:46	#18 (permalink)
Tulenos Bohemian NHL Punter Join Date: 02 May 2001 Location: Prague Age: 38 Posts: 11,759	US Open QF Onwards Good luck. I am on Federer but not that convinced after today's display.

10-09-2004, 06:58	#19 (permalink)
mrmuzeman Deal Me Fcuking In Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Location: Horsham, West sussex Age: 25 Posts: 1,660	Yeah I got on to the 10/1 pre tourny for Hewitt as well. Only had a small stake on it though which im quite pissed off about! Do you think Hewitt has a decent chance against roddick Jeffers?

10-09-2004, 08:09	#20 (permalink)
jeffers Antipodean Punter Join Date: 16 Jul 2001 Location: In your face Age: 27 Posts: 3,880	Re: Yeah I think he'll beat Roddick, I won't say easily, but he'll have him under control I reckon. He'll dominate Roddick from the back of the court and mix it up enough to make Roddick do things he isn't confortable with (like volleying ) This is Hewitt's tourny

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