Trainbairn's Guide To The New Season

[kompressaur]

Trainbairn if you aren't aware is a fella who seems to pop up on everyboard i visit and will be known to those who like a punt on the horses.

I've been trying to get Trainbairn to become a regular at the PL as he's a quality poster and knows his stuff. He has problems logging into PL (try p076.ezboard.com ) but has kindly gave me permission to post up one of his posts.

Seeing as it covers all the divisions i thought it would be easiest to make it a thread in itself. Please only discuss Trainbairn's picks here (for and against) and keep all other ante-post thoughts on the relavent divisional threads. I'm a way for a read

Not quite but thought I would put up my selections for persual with reasoning for the forthcoming seasons leagues in the UK..

English Leagues

BARCLAYCARD PREMIERSHIP

Given the uncertainty surrounding Patrick Veira's future at Highbury and doubts that I still have about goalkeeper Jens Lehman I have to be against Arsenal and think that the 3/1 on offer about MANCHESTER UNITED is too big to pass up.

Most of Sir Alex's purchases last pre-season seemed to take most of the season to really show what they are all about, and I think that with a season behind them to settle in Eric Djemba-Djemba and Kleberson will be better suited to taking prominent roles in the United midfield.Also with Alan Smith able to take some of the pressure off the shoulders of Ruud Van Nistelroy and allow him to play with a bit more freedom a return to form for the Dutchman is in the offing.For a while last season it seemed that if Ruud didn't score then there was no-one in the Old Trafford ranks who was able to step up and being counted in goalscoring terms.Louis Saha will also be able to chip in with a few goals this season as well.I don't expect them to come flying out of the blocks exactly but I think Fergie's game plan will be to make sure they are sitting in just behind the leaders come October time when he will be able to have the services of Rio Ferdinand back to bolster the defence and push on from there.

It should be a close run thing but I see Manchester United winning the league with Arsenal and Newcastle United fighting out 2nd and 3rd places as I am expecting an improved showing from the Magpies in Alan Shearer and Sir Bobby Robson's final season with the club.The 4th Champions League spot will be a straight figh between Liverpool and Chelsea neither of whom convince me that they have the squads to deal with the top 3.I see Liverpool as potential for Top 3 in 2005-2006 though once Rafa Benitez has had a year to asses the squad and get all his own players in.


When it comes to Premiership relegation there is one team at a reasonable price who I think are worth betting on and that is the original "Mr.Moneybags" side in FULHAM at 9/1.I will admit that there is just something that just bugs me about Fulham that I can't put my finger on but I just don't like them.With Saha away to Old Trafford last January they struggled after that and they look likely to miss Malbranque for at least 1 of the early games and Luis Boa Morte for the first month of the season with the Olympics going on.Without them and with Sean Davis away to Tottenham I can see them really struggling and being this years"big team" that get dragged down into the relegation mire and are too big a price to let go to do so.Of the Premiership new boys I think West Brom will finish Bottom,Palace might finish 4th bottom and Norwich Mid-Table as they will cause a few early surprises to teams.

COCA-COLA LEAGUES

Coca Cola Championship.

Division 1 has been a lucky league for me over the past couple of years having tipped Portsmouth and Norwich the last 2 season and the side I am hoping will land me a hat-trick is George Burley's DERBY COUNTY who are overpriced even at 40/1 to gain promotion back to the big time.

I have a feeling that somewhere subconsiously George Burley knew in January of last year that his side weren't going to be relegated.The reason I say that is that the signings he made weren't short-term gambles with risk involved in them but relatively longer term purchases who he knew would be able to do a job for them this season.Jeff Kenna came in and helped shore up the defence and he has been joined in the close season by Coventry's captain Mo Konjic who will give their back four that experience and know how it needs to allow their attacking players the freedom to go and do their job.It could be argued that there is no side with a better midfield in Div 1 than the Rams with Marco Reich,Tom Huddlestone,Ian Taylor and new signing Morton Bissgard all with the quality you need in a winning side.Up front George Burley has signed Tommy Smith from Sunderland to partner either Paul Pescholido and Junior up front in a potent strike force.

Their home form from Christmas onwards was exceptional with only a 4-0 defeat by champions Norwich and a 1-0 defeat by Walsall when they were robbed by a shocking refereeing decision to award a penalty near the end of the game which was a simple case of 6 and 2 3's.Like Norwich last year if they could just improve on their horrid Away form then they will be overlooked by most pundits and quitely go about their business whilst everyone still expects them to be in the bottom half.The 100/1 that was on offer with Totesports was a huge price but that has all gone now and around 40/1-50/1 is the best price you can get now.

I am not convinced by West Ham or Leeds and think the other 2 places will be filled by Wolves(Will be boosted by the return of Matt Murray and Julian Lescott who missed the whole of last season) and Leicester City who have started pre-season well and will be wanting a quick return to the Premiership in just 1 season. Potential Play-off outsiders in my opinion will be Cardiff City with the building of the new stadium to start shortly and Preston North End if they can just avoid drawing so many games.


Coca-Cola Division 1

Again I am trying to avoid the big guns and fancy the chances of Sammy McIllroy's STOCKPORT COUNTY at around 40/1 who has strengthened their squad over the summer and have teh momentum of a good pre-season to take with them into the new season.They were a side who caught my eye in the later part of last season as one to watch for this season and McIlroy has made good signings in Lee Mair,Warren Feeney and Marc Bridge-Wilkinson to add to the squad he already had at the club.Given that this will be the 1st pre-season the manager has had with the players I expect them to improve considerably this season and challenge for promotion at the very least and at the odds they look too big a price.

I think that Bristol City will settle for promotion in any shape of form and will be up there challenging but I still can't see why there has been such confidence in Sheffield Wednesday this season.I feel they are possible play-off material but no better than that and are too short a price to be worth betting at this moment.

Coca-Cola Division 2

My original thought with this league was to back Boston given the signings they made early pre-season(Lilley,Kirk etc.).However subsequent informatyion about the finanacial aspect of the club make me back off them a bit and also the fact that Derek Lilley has moved back up north and been replaced by Jason Lee who may struggle makes me think they are just a tad short in teh betting.But who do you back against them?..

Looked around for an alternative and the overpriced team given their pre-season signings etc are Jan Molby's KIDDERMINSTER HARRIERS at around 150/1.Could be a complete shot in the dark and therefore useless but I had a look at their website to see how they have done this pre-season and it seems Jan Molby has been busy in the transfer market to bring in players who will be able to better last season's position and I will take a gamble on them.At least, if they have a good start then a possible trading position might ensue which allows me to get my cash back.


SCOTTISH LEAGUES


SPL..

I have been saying all summer that RANGERS look to be well on course to wrestle back power in the city of Glasgow and even at 15/8 they are the value bet in what is as always a 2 horse race.Given the uncertainty surrounding Martin O'Neill's future at Parkhead and the complete lack of transfer activity at Celtic I think Alex McLeish's men stealing a march on their rivals and winning back the title they lost so feebily last season.

Scottish Div 1

There can only be one bet for me here and it is not heart ruling head but at 13/2 FALKIRK have to be the bet here.4th last season when we failed to score on no less than 14 occasions in 36 league games due to a lack of a proper strike force I can't see that situation happening again this season and if our defence can keep up it's solid performances as it has done for the past 2 seasons(We only conceded 8 more goals last season than we did in the Title winning season the season before) then I see no reason why we can't wrap up the title by around Easter time and at 13/2 we have to be the bet.

Clyde have a greatly weakened squad(possibly to be even weaker by the sale of top goalscorer Ian Harty to Falkirk),St.Johnstone will challenge again but are short at 5/2,Partick will be off to a slowish start and playing catch-up due to the Are they,aren't they? fiasco of last season,Hamilton and Airdirie will start well but will fade after Christmas,Raith Rovers will be lucky to avoid relegation in my opinion and St.Mirren and Ross County will be their usual mercurial selfs beating teams near the top but dropping needless points against teams nearer the bottom of the league.

Scottish Divison 2

When I originally saw the prices I thought Brechin at 10/1 were too big and that has shown given that they are now around 3/1.The team that I think have the most solid credentials and haven't moved much in the market is Campbell Money's AYR UNITED at around 9/2.A talented team of youngsters last season who just failed to stay in Div 1 has been added to by the experience of Paddy Connolly and Micheal O'Neill who should be able to bring on their young strikers and notch quite a few themselves.With goalkeeper Ludovic Roy choosing to stay at Somerset as well and new signing Barry McLaughlin at the back fitting in well they will take some stopping in my opinion especially with midfielder Steven Ferguson due to return after an injury plagued season last year.Campbell Money also has the experience of taking Stranrear into Div 1 as well by winning promotion from this division and that could stand him in good stead throughout the season.


Scottish Div 3

If you listen to most of the pundits then Gretna will be the 1st league winners in Britain and whilst I don't disagree that they have the strongest squad in the league they are hardly a betting proposition at 11/10.Against them I quite like the look of ALBION ROVERS as a value alternative to the favourites.They have finished 3rd on 2 of the last 3 seasons and again have a manager who has had his first full pre-season with his team in Kevin McCallister(Well,apart from his Masters appearences with Chelsea!).If they can prove that last season' performance was a blip then I expect them to be challenging for honours again this year at big odds of around 25/1+..


I realise that I may take some derision for some of my choices but that's what the thread is there for-Reasoned debate and let's hope between us every division has someone who posts their selections winning the league..

Best of luck with whatever you back this season..

Steven

The Trainbairn

I'm with you on Falkirk and Albion Rovers Trainbairn. Gonna chance them on the handicap list and maybe throw in Forfar also.

I agree with you Komp. The guy knows his stuff. I first read his post on one of the horse racing forums a couple of years ago, quality analysis.

Regularly read his thoughts on the Betfair forum where he is a well respected poster.

Hope he comes on board

BR

[GETT1NLOTS]

The 4th Champions League spot will be a straight figh between Liverpool and Chelsea neither of whom convince me that they have the squads to deal with the top 3.

I can't knock the fact that this chap goes into great detail and seems to know a lot about football. But where he gets the idea that Chelsea won't get into the top 3 because they don't have the squad to compete is beyond me.

Nope - I'll say it as it is. It is possibly the stupidest thing I've read on a tipping site for a long long time. Chelsea might not win the League but how anyone can say they might end up 5th is simply astounding.

As for Newcastle I actually think they could struggle. (So again I disagree with him here) Announcing that this is the Managers last season in charge no matter what (as Shepherd has done in the last 2 days) can unsettle a squad. Just look what happened to Man Utd when SAF was supposedly in his last season.

I do agree that Man Utd are the value pick though. At 3/1 they are a decent bet IMO.

Conclusion
Mixed feelings on his picks for the Prem.

I'll post my thoughts on his Championship (Old Div 1) tips tomorrow.

Trainbairn - I like your ideas about the Prem and I think your Man U tips and Fulham tips are both good ideas.

However, my opinion on Derby for the Championship is that it's utter bollox. Of course, time will tell but I'll give you three reasons why I think so.

1. They can't possibly be 40/1 just to gain promotion. That price must surely be to WIN the Championship.

2.

if they could just improve on their horrid Away form

And if Newcastle could just improve on theirs, they'd be first or second in the Prem every year but where's the logic to suggest that they will?

3. They are @#%$. They may beat a very very poor Leeds side on Saturday but I see a mid table finish at best for them.

In my opinion, if you're looking for a side at a decent price who don't need to improve very much to get promoted, you should be looking at Reading.

[Aykay1]

nice one komp - this guy is an absolute legend, (with the horses aswell) keep the negotiations for a transfer going!

[manckevin]

The guy must be good after this:
Again I am trying to avoid the big guns and fancy the chances of Sammy McIllroy's STOCKPORT COUNTY at around 40/1 who has strengthened their squad over the summer and have teh momentum of a good pre-season to take with them into the new season.

Been saying for a while that 40/1 is too big - we won't go straight up (I fancy Hull myself) but I reckon we (SCFC) could be there or thereabouts

Finally realized wht the problem with getting on this board was Komp-My password for here was different to my password on all the other forums I post on!.

To answer a couple of points:

1)I do feel that Chelsea don't have the sqaud to challenge based on the signings Mourinho has made so far.It smacks of someone just buying players from whichever country is fashionable this month when he could have got far better players for far cheaper if he had looked hard enough.Their best chance was last year in my opinion.

2)The price about Derby is to win the league and not to gain promotion.The way it has been conveyed by myself in the post is wrong and apologies for any confusion made.

A good point is made about their Away from but there were signs last backend that they were getting it together on the road and Norwich were in a similair look last pre-season and they did not bad.

Steven

The Trainbairn

Thanks for the response and welcome to the Lounge.

It's obvious that you already have a reputation worthy of respect, , which does not come easy, so I hope that you will be a regular contributor on this site during the coming season. Especially as I can't access the Betfair forum to pick your brains (A java problem that I still havent sorted out yet).

Again - Welcome

[kompressaur]

Glad you could find the way in Trainbairn. Seems like your more well known than i first imagined. I'm just welll known for posting lots and being a fcukwit. My new 23yr old E cupped woman is affecting my post count. She asked me to move my comp over to hers but it's a bit early for that no matter how big her tits are.

Again, welcome to PL Trainbairn. It will be busy in here in a week or so once the pt gamblers pop by for some tips

Onedun, did that link i posted on your thread in the Techy forum not sort out your Java?

[GETT1NLOTS]

Hi Trainbairn,

Welcome to the Lounge.

I do feel that Chelsea don't have the sqaud to challenge based on the signings Mourinho has made so far

This is back tracking from your first statement which was that you didn't think they would make the first 3.

Remember writing

The 4th Champions League spot will be a straight figh between Liverpool and Chelsea neither of whom convince me that they have the squads to deal with the top 3.

As it happens I also agree that they might not win the Championship. It was the fact that you think they will be behind Arsenal (fair enough) Man Utd (maybe fair enough) and Newcastle ( ) that I simply cannot agree with.

Out of interest what odds will you give my £500 that Chelsea will finish top 3 and / or above Newcastle?

As for your Derby pick I happen to think that it has some merit. I know some Villa lads that went to see the friendly against the Rams (Villa lost 2-1) the other night. They said Derby looked a good Division 1 outfit. I also rate GB as a good manager. 40/1 looks decent value.

[Footy Punter]

How exactly does

I do feel that Chelsea don't have the sqaud to challenge based on the signings Mourinho has made so far

backtrack or contradict

The 4th Champions League spot will be a straight figh between Liverpool and Chelsea neither of whom convince me that they have the squads to deal with the top 3.

To me it seems like it gives the reasoning behind why he doesn't believe Chelsea will be top 3 ie he doesn't think that Chelsea have the squad to challenge.

Or am I reading it completely different to you?

Personally I would have Chelsea as favourites but then I had them as favourites last season too. However they only lost out to a monumental Arsenal performance.

GETT1NLOTS,

In answer to your comments on Newcastle Vs Chelsea I won't lay the bet but that is purely down to the fact that I don't lay any bets full stop!

I stand by my original statement though that I feel , in my opinion, that Chelsea do not have a good enough or settled enough squad to challenge for the title and I can see Newcastle and Liverpool having better seasons than them based on the relatively settled squads they have.Too many of the players of those 2 clubs underperformed last season and will be trying even harder than normal to redress that(Dyer/Jenas and Bellamy for the Magpies and Owen and Baros for Liverpool).

Mind you this game is all about opinions and I respect anyone who is willing to stand up to the plate and debate the issues on here..

Steven

The Trainbairn

[GETT1NLOTS]

Footy Punter,

You are reading it different to me (and I am right of course :p ) because their is a huge difference between saying a team won't challenge to win the title and won't challenge the top 3. In one statement you are conceding the team might come second (by default) but not win it. In the other you are saying fourth placed at best.

I actually agree that Chelsea might not win the title. But I don't see how anyone can say they don't have the squad to challenge Newcastle. I also think Chelsea have a good enough squad to challenge any team in the Prem. Probably the BEST squad in the UK. Maybe even Europe now It will NOT be down to the strength of Chelseas squad (as suggested by Trainbairn) it will be down to how Mourinho manages them. The talent is certainly there - I can't accept any other argument.

Trainbairn,

Fair play to you mate. At the end of the day I don't agree with you on this one but as Greavsie said "It's a funny old game" and anything could happen.

Personally I would "love it, just love it", if Newcastle were to become Champions. I like old Bobby Robson and Newcastle (as a club and fans). They have always been a favourite of mine. But with the Freddy Shepherd disrupting the squad by effectively sacking Bobby Robson in twelve months time I can't see it happening. Shearer, Bellamy, Woodgate, Kliuvert, Butt and Dyer are all good players but all would have to stay fit all season as their squad is light in depth IMO.

We will see though. Best of luck with your bets for the coming season

[Footy Punter]

Ok, not really going to split hairs with you here Gettinlots but from my reading of Trainbairns posts they seem pretty consistant in that in the first one he doesn't think Chelsea have a squad capable of dealing with a top 3 of Arsenal, Man Utd and Newcastle and he thinks they will be fighting for 4th spot with Liverpool.

In the second one he backs up his comments about why he thinks they will get fourth at best with his views on the squad.

At no point in either post does he mention a title challenge or lack of one in relation to Chelsea. But its surely taken as read that if a team can't beat the top 3 then its pretty obvious they can't win the title. Is it not?

Maybe I don't understand English very well:/

[bagehot]

I really can't agree that Chelsea's troubles may come from lack of quality or depth in their squad. Mourinho's main challenge will be, as Gettinlots said, to manage the human resources at his disposal.

Chelsea have actually signed wisely this season (contrary to a year ago) and their vast outlayn simply comes with their territory these days - they would not have been able to sign big name players for anything less than massive amounts, people just know they can afford it.

Kezman I think will prove to be a bargain, Drogba while overpriced will most probably make a bigger impact than say Crespo, Paulo Ferreira again overpriced but a pretty good player and who can easily play 60+ full competitive matches in a season.

Ricardo Carvalho on the other hand will in my view become one of the Premiership's brightest stars, at age 26 he is quite probably already the best centreback in Europe. You can quote me on that...

Vieira looks like he's going, Henry will have a hard time producing as good a season as last year's, and in those circumstances I don't expect Arsenal to be the force they were in 2003/2004.

ManUtd though should come back stronger and pose a significant title challenge.

That said, I personally believe it will be Chelsea's season by a safe margin.

Some of you will not be pleased to read that RP had Newcastle finishing 9th one place below Bolton, with Chelsea top. They argued that Kluivert would be a bad influence in the dressing room, clashing with Shearer, and it ending up with only one of them playing when the other did not. They thought the new Chelsea boss was an improvement on the last one.

They also said that Trois Etoiles would win the 420 at Chepstow.

It didn't.

[Winrew]

I have been saying all summer that RANGERS look to be well on course to wrestle back power in the city of Glasgow and even at 15/8 they are the value bet in what is as always a 2 horse race.Given the uncertainty surrounding Martin O'Neill's future at Parkhead and the complete lack of transfer activity at Celtic I think Alex McLeish's men stealing a march on their rivals and winning back the title they lost so feebily last season.

Agree with this, no decent signings unless you count that fella from Wolves......Larrson going could be there undoing...imo,
dont know what they are thinking up at Parkhead....

Excellent post, and the majority of it provides a solid analysis -which I agree with. I especially like the Man U @ 3's on Sunday and Rangers tip.

However Albion Rovers will struggle to overcome Gretna or Peterhead IMO and Falkirk - under the stewardship of John Hughes are far to inconsistent for my liking.

[Aykay1]

Henry will have a hard time producing as good a season as last year's, and in those circumstances I don't expect Arsenal to be the force they were in 2003/2004.

Henry is the best striker in the world and has been awesome for 2 seasons now and i dont see any reason why he cant have a 3rd? He certainly wasnt showing any signs of slowing down at the end of last season.