Ratings Discussion & Current Lays

[Paul Ross]

As I've said previously, I have been very reluctant to say that they should be taken as gospel, but they do stand up to logic.

Seeing as though after eventing is in full flow, here's some more.

I did a test today and layed 25 teams according to the ratings and prices available, ie QPR were 1.59 to lay but the ratings had it QPR 47.75 vs 43.00 Stockport hence 1.59 was what I considered value to lay and I did this throughout the whole of the fixtures.

26 Lays
16 Successful
Yield 20.40%

I pretty much know this isn't a fluke because although I don't have records to prove it, I have of course followed results from the ratings.

Motherwell @ 2.84 and Celtic @ 1.33 are also lays tommorrow.

I will attempt to look back at previous weekends and post up results.

If anyone has any suggestions or comments regarding the ratings, don't be afraid to let me know.

[GETT1NLOTS]

I've always liked the ratings Paul.

I like them in the form of a ratings table.

I think it might help for you to cherry pick outstanding differences in ratings as well. This way people wouldn't have to trawl through every match. You could have the top 5 differences in ratings every week and see how they stand up?

Just ideas.

Hi paul read this,and pulled your past ratings up and random picked 21/22 /02/04 for the Prem ,worked out between backing and laying certain teams with certain points it gained 41+ points profit based on 10 points for a lay and 10 points for a back.

Then i worked on saturdays 17/04/04 by doing using the same workings your ratings gave 41+ points ,best backed winner was Southampton at 4.00s or above on Betfair.


Other results 21/22/02/04 for 1st & 2nd Eng gave a profit of 19 + .


Looked at the 2 Scots Prem games today and with the way iam working using your ratings i will lay Celtic and Aberdeen.


Will get my bets on and then i will back track to get more results

Had to do them before i could get on,

ENG 1/2/3 gave a 68+ point profit based on backing/laying on ratings value.


The best div was 3 with 12 games there were

5 teams to back and 7 teams to lay based on ratings.


So for Saturday Paul your Eng ratings gave a 109+ point profit,think i will give up what iam doing and use your ratings ,will look back more and get results but they look spot on for a teams form at the time the are given,

[PompeyPunt]

I've found the ratings useful on many occasions, maybe a long term testing program for them paul?

[Paul Ross]

Dogbat,

Have you got a breakdown of those figures, ie which teams you backed and layed ?

Pompey,

It's been, believe it or not, 8 months already, there is no doubt in my mind how good these ratings are now.

Will send you a breakdown later tonight

[Paul Ross]

I've had a look back and the profits continue, but it does take time and right now I'm not in the right mood to tackle it.

Anyway, based on the midweek ratings here are the teams that should be layed.

All to win 10pts.

Burnley @ 1.53
Shrewsbury @ 1.52
Luton 1.98
Hull 2.06

Total Liability of 30.90pts.

Now watch them all get smashed.

Hi Paul this looks a very interesting thread and I will watch it in great detail just 1 question maybe im being thick here but...

Total Liability is 30.90pts you say due to a 10 point stake on all 4 games. Now surley if your backing them Liability is 40 points and if you were laying all 4 games it would be 70.9 pts.

Please could you just explain this to me as I must be doing something wrong.

[Paul Ross]

Hi FP,

Welcome to PL.

The liability is 30.90pts and I'll break it down for you.

Burnley @ 1.53 = 5.30pts Liability (This is odds on remember.)
Shrewsbury @ 1.52 = 5.20pts Liability (Same Here)
Luton 1.98 = 9.80pts Liability (Odds on just)
Hull 2.06 = 10.60 Liability (Just over Evens)

All you do to find the liability is multiply the the odds by your potential profit (in this case 10pts) and take off the same (again 10pts - Your Stake).

The calculation above (PR’s) is assuming a commission free environment. At a 5% comm. rate the above stakes would return 9.5 units on each winning bet and not 10 units.

Pedantic I know
:o

[Paul Ross]

I've put these on Sports-Punter.com under Lay Man so all the stats can be seen at a glance, although there isn't much of the season left, there will still be quite a few selections.

[Rumlesen]

Hi Paul

These ratings, are they to be seen in the PL or elsewhere?
Looks like a great tool you made yourself

[Paul Ross]

Hi Rumlesen,

There are two threads, on is performance ratings and one prediction ratings with ratings league tables.

Here you go.

Prediction Ratings

Performance Ratings

[Rumlesen]

Thank you very much, very interresting reading

[Paul Ross]

3 out of 4 tonight.

Profit +24.10pts
Yield 66.76%
Strike Rate 75%
Average Lay Price 1.90

That's all based on the prices I took and put on Sports-Punter.com, where my username is Lay Man.

Check the Tipster League table now and again to see how they are comparing.

[Paul Ross]

Celtic are a lay @ 1.20.

shit man, i'm really impressed : celtic - aberdeen 1-2, when I saw this tip i thought this guy is kidding. Was this selection based only on rating - no team news, etc ???

[Paul Ross]

Hi Agend and welcome to Punters Lounge.

It was based on the ratings only, I have to say I was a bit surprised when it came up as Celtic have been miles clear usually. What it shows is that their performances have dipped recently, because they were also a lay against Kilmarnock, a match they arguably, should not have won.

[Rumlesen]