What's considered a 'Value' bet

[thunderfoot]

I've set-up a file in EXCEL that reads a market from Betfair and reads the same market from Ladbrokes, so that EXCEL can compare the odds available from the 2 sources. I can execute bets from EXCEL into Betfair so I can use a formula to trigger BACK or LAY bets.

On Markets like Greyhound Racing there are some really good 'Values' available to BACK i.e. I've seen 5.50 on Ladbrokes and 11.00 on Betfair at the same time. On the other side of the coin I've seen LAY odds slightly lower on Betfair than the BACK odds on Ladbrokes (If I was quick I could ARB, but the money available is usually very low).

My thoughts are that if the BACK odds on Betfair are of 'Value' (as in the above the value is 100% better on Betfair), then it's worth taking a punt on BACKing all selections where EXCEL ID's these 'Value' bets, the theory being that 'Value' bets will show a return. Similarly, it's worth taking a punt on all the selections where the LAY odds on Betfair are slightly lower than Ladbrokes BACK odds.

Question is, what would be considered as 'VALUE'? For example, if the Betfair odds were, say, 50% greater than on Ladbrokes would that be considered as 'VALUE', or should I set percentage higher.

At the moment I've got EXCEL to trigger BACK bets if the odds on Betfair are 50% or greater than on Ladbrokes, and to trigger LAY bets if the LAY odds on Betfair are 20% below those shown on Ladbrokes.

[duffman]

thunderfoot,

In my opinion.. using this specific technique, it can only be considered 'value' when the ladbrokes prices are in any way higher than those on betfair..which mightnt happen that often. If you think about it, the exchanges always take into account the very latest information while the bookies only change theirs if theres a significant amount of activity. Unfortunately you cant lay with the bookies but a variartion may work in less popular markets.

p.s. If you wanted to share that nifty bit of programming it'd be great help to a few of us
p.p.s i think the line is 'I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my granddad..'

[duffman]

Seriously thunderfoot, how did you do that? i.e. Get ladbrokes and betfair prices onto an excel sheet for the same market... Or even if you wont tell me, are the betfair prices on the excel sheet LIVE betfair odds?

[georgej]

For betfair, there was a free app that did this - now £5 p.m.
gruss software - there is a forum a few of us are on there.

For the ladbrokes, it takes a bit of vba coding to do that.
If you have the betfair data in sheet1 and ladbrokes in sheet2, you can have lookup formulas etc in sheet3 to match and compare.
(Then if you want make a macro to put your bet details into sheet1 which gruss' software will take from excel and but into betfair (via the API))

sounds easy doesn't it.

[duffman]

cheers georgej, sounds dead easy alright..i'll get cracking on that though i always thought vba was a fancy new name for vb! bring back cobol i say..its amazin all this new technology, soon they'll have people betting on virtual horses or something..madness!