What are fair Odds on Place Bets?

[thunderfoot]

How would you calculate 'fair' Place Odds using the Win Odds on Betfair (Horse Racing).

I've seen Win Odds of 4.0 and place odds ranging from 1.10 to 1.80 for the 1st 3 places, and conversely, Place Odds of 1.50 against Win Odds ranging from 3.0 to 4.1.

Obviously, the higher the place odds the better, but is there a way of calculating the 'fair' odds for Place betting (so there's a stake-in-the-ground benchmark), and then working out the 'value' of Place odds from there?

[slapdash]

Originally Posted by thunderfoot

How would you calculate 'fair' Place Odds using the Win Odds on Betfair (Horse Racing).

I've seen Win Odds of 4.0 and place odds ranging from 1.10 to 1.80 for the 1st 3 places, and conversely, Place Odds of 1.50 against Win Odds ranging from 3.0 to 4.1.

Obviously, the higher the place odds the better, but is there a way of calculating the 'fair' odds for Place betting (so there's a stake-in-the-ground benchmark), and then working out the 'value' of Place odds from there?

Depends very heavily on the odds of other horses in the race (and other factors).

E.g., imagine an 8-runner race where your horse is at win odds of 8.00 (so average).

If there's a long odds-on favourite at odds of 1.20 and the other six horses are at odds of 25.00 or more then your horse should probably be long odds-on to place.

If all 8 horses are around 8.00 (all 8 horses are about equal) then your horse should have about a 3 in 8 chance of placing (place odds of 2.67).

Other factors: some horses will have a tendency to win or be nowhere, in which case the place odds will be higher compared to the win odds (e.g., in a jumps race, a horse that is way faster than the others but falls a lot of the time). Other horses might be more consistent, and almost always there or there about, in which case their place odds should be higher compared to the win odds.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Originally Posted by slapdash

Other horses might be more consistent, and almost always there or there about, in which case their place odds should be higher compared to the win odds.

Lower, shirley.