What Edge

[ArtMaster]

Hi,

I was wondering what sort of edge most punters will look for on a bet before placing it.

If I felt a price should be 1.90 and it was Evens, then is this 5% enough? Or should we be looking at 10% +?

[Ashtee]

Philosophically, taking 2.00 is fine providing you're totally satisfied you've accurately judged the event as a 1.90 chance. However, only taking the bet if you see at least 2.10 would be a better practice - I usually set the marker a little higher than 2.10.

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by ArtMaster

Hi,

I was wondering what sort of edge most punters will look for on a bet before placing it.

If I felt a price should be 1.90 and it was Evens, then is this 5% enough? Or should we be looking at 10% +?

A 1.9 or 10/11 chance is equal to a true chance of 52.4% chance.
Evens is 50%.
The difference in true odds terms being just 2.4%.

I look for around a 3% or more advantage at such a price. May be I would allow less of a margin for error at a bigger price.

Ginge

[ArtMaster]

Isnt it 2.00/1.90 = 1.05 so a 5% edge?

Or: Overlay = (probability * bookies price) – 1

so 1.90 is 53%

(0.53 x 2.00) -1 = 0.05, so 5%

[Ashtee]

Yes, you'd be running at 5.3% profit.