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Old 01-07-2008, 15:26   #1 (permalink)
Senior Punter
 
Join Date: 07 Aug 2006
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Default What Edge

Hi,

I was wondering what sort of edge most punters will look for on a bet before placing it.

If I felt a price should be 1.90 and it was Evens, then is this 5% enough? Or should we be looking at 10% +?
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Old 02-07-2008, 00:30   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: What Edge

Philosophically, taking 2.00 is fine providing you're totally satisfied you've accurately judged the event as a 1.90 chance. However, only taking the bet if you see at least 2.10 would be a better practice - I usually set the marker a little higher than 2.10.
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Old 02-07-2008, 18:45   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: What Edge

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtMaster View Post
Hi,

I was wondering what sort of edge most punters will look for on a bet before placing it.

If I felt a price should be 1.90 and it was Evens, then is this 5% enough? Or should we be looking at 10% +?
A 1.9 or 10/11 chance is equal to a true chance of 52.4% chance.
Evens is 50%.
The difference in true odds terms being just 2.4%.

I look for around a 3% or more advantage at such a price. May be I would allow less of a margin for error at a bigger price.

Ginge
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Old 05-07-2008, 15:31   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: What Edge

Isnt it 2.00/1.90 = 1.05 so a 5% edge?

Or: Overlay = (probability * bookies price) – 1

so 1.90 is 53%

(0.53 x 2.00) -1 = 0.05, so 5%

Last edited by ArtMaster; 05-07-2008 at 15:41. Reason: Added to Post
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Old 06-07-2008, 00:54   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: What Edge

Yes, you'd be running at 5.3% profit.
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