tips?

[GoodGuy]

hello all.
i'm a newbie to the punting business. i've read old posts on my question but they are too old at the moment. my question is for the hard hitting punters that make a living off of it: does anyone know of any asian handicap tip service that has an average return of between 20 and 30% a game?
i know that many professionals here would simply tell me to not waste money and just check out my fellows picks here at PL. i respect that and am looking into it, there are some tipsters over here that demand respect. but i am also thinking that paying a service over 300 pound for 6 picks must in some way have some degree of merit.
can anyone tell me whats good and who the scammers are?
i guess i should also mention that i'm not looking at 10 pound bets rather a minimum of a 100. i know there are no gaurantee's in this business thats why its still called gambling.
i appreciate all types of honest constructive advice, as i want to be a participating member of this community.
(i'm a huge EPL fan by the way)
thanks in advance.

[Norfolk Enchance]

Some people here say that all tipster services are a waste of money. This isn't true, although most are.

20-30% is very difficult to achieve though, esp. with AH betting. Most professionals would be happy with a more realistically achievable 5-10%. Anything more than that over a significant number of bets is great.

[slapdash]

I agree with Norfolk Enchance. It's very unlikely you could find somebody making 20-30% in the long run on AH bets, except maybe if they specialized in finding individual bookies that had got the odds wildly wrong,in which case the odds would probably have gone long before you could get on. It's just too much to expect,and anybody claiming that much is almost certainly either lying or just giving their returns over a short period that won't continue.

I could believe somebody might manage 20-30% in the long run betting on 25/1 shots, but I'd rather be able to make 5-10% on even money shots.

[GoodGuy]

thanks for the advice ppl.
can i ask who the ppl that can make me 5-10% are?
i know there are no gaurantees in this but i would like consistancy, i heard you were up there slapdash.
also can i suggest the names of a few of these tipsters and u guys tell me what you think of them or is that not allowed on the forum?

[Datapunter]

Yes, we don't allow commercial tipsters to advertise their business, openly or covertly, and any discussion about them is "monitored" by us mods so the discussion stays one amonst punters. ( So anyone replying to this thread as a first post highlighting any one service can safely be considered spam. )

I don't think it's as simple as that. Even if you find a good source of information like tips, either paid for or free, it still has to fit in with your available timeschedule. Imagine a great tipster on the horses, but his tips are conditional on the price of a horse dropping. Only usefull to someone who can watch the market. Imagine someone tipping football who sends an email 1 hour before the match, only usefull if your timeschedule allows you to read the email in time, which basically means you need to be on-line constantly. Same problem with Asian Handicaps.

To make a consistent profit over time you need a portfolio of betting activities that fit your available timeschedule ( and bank ) , this could include commercial tipsters but you shouldn't rely on them. My suggestion would be to find some method of your own for making a shortlist of possible bet selections. Then look around for information to either confirm or eleminate entries on your shortlist. Do that for a while consistently, disciplined and with accurate records, see what the result is and adjust if needed.

Can't help with any specific recommendations, sorry.

[GoodGuy]

Originally Posted by Datapunter

Imagine a great tipster on the horses, but his tips are conditional on the price of a horse dropping.

can you please explain this i don't quite understand cause i'm new.
thanks

[ScottyXS]

Originally Posted by GoodGuy

can you please explain this i don't quite understand cause i'm new.
thanks

DP means like any steamers etc.
ie an initially unfancied horse, that suddenly within hours/minutes before the race begins, shoots down in price for some reason. This shows that bookmakers have become very wary of the horse and what it can potentially do, and generally a good tip is to back these steamers. Things like that dude

[GoodGuy]

Originally Posted by ScottyXS

DP means like any steamers etc.
ie an initially unfancied horse, that suddenly within hours/minutes before the race begins, shoots down in price for some reason. This shows that bookmakers have become very wary of the horse and what it can potentially do, and generally a good tip is to back these steamers. Things like that dude

so the price of the horse dropping is a bad thing? if so then why would your tipster want to wait on a horse till it gets a bad price? please bear with me i'm a real newbie.

[happygooner]

Originally Posted by ScottyXS

DP means like any steamers etc.
ie an initially unfancied horse, that suddenly within hours/minutes before the race begins, shoots down in price for some reason. This shows that bookmakers have become very wary of the horse and what it can potentially do, and generally a good tip is to back these steamers. Things like that dude

You mean as opposed to laying them and watching them romp home Scotty. So that's where I've been going wrong

[Datapunter]

Scotty got it spot on there.

Goodguy, as you're new here's some pointers,
to be successfull in sportsbetting you need to understand the basic mechanics of betting markets.
then you need to find activities that suit your current situation.
and then somehow develop your own "edge".

understanding the basics,
how bookmakers make their living is by using an "overround" to the price.
find out all you can about overround whilst you're at it look up "arbitrage"

this is about understanding how the market works, prices do not neccessarily represent a teams chance of winning, bookmakers want to make money on their overround therefore they set the price so they get as much as possible on all outcomes, this can be different from the actual % chance of winning and why there can be value in a price.

Look up "value betting" and make sure you understand the mechanics of average price versus strike rate. I'm not saying you should get into value betting, just that you need to understand it. In sportsbetting it's like gravity.

find activities that suit your current situation.
first of all get real about your financial situation,
never bet with more than you can afford to lose.

concentrate on sports and markets that you enjoy regardless of winning or losing,

put 95% of your time in selecting what to bet on, put 5% in a staking plan. When you start a betting activity you don't know how it's going to go therefore you have no idea what staking plan is appropriate. So pick one of the classics like level stakes or simple % of bank and run with it. Concentrate your time on your selection process.

Fit betting into your existing schedule, don't change your schedule to bet, at least not until you have some success. Almost like "don't spend time you can't afford". You need a clear head and discipline to be successful at this, that only works if the rest of your life is in order and working.

develop your own edge
don't rely on others in any way, develop something you can do from scratch on your own, it's the only way you can adjust based on the results you get. Patience, research and backtesting WILL pay off, if nothing else it will tell you where NOT to spend your time on.

And after all that, get a bit of luck too



well you did ask for... tips

p.s.
the above has been compiled based on the accumulation of all the mistakes i've made myself in the past 6 years

[GoodGuy]

thanks for all the advice.
one question is: do people that make a living off of betting make their own specualtion or do they ever use "tips" ?
thanks