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| | #1 (permalink) |
| Senior Punter ![]() ![]() Join Date: 07 Aug 2006 Location: Brisbane Age: 25
Posts: 164
| Hello, Firstly apologies as I know staking questions arent so popular but I am hoping some more mathematically minded people might be able to help out. I am aware of he strategies but unsure on how to work out the best to use? Eg. Person A bets mainly 1.91 Lines, Person B mainly bets outsiders, Person C bets short prices, Person D bets all of the above depending on where there is value. Which plan is best suited to each? I am reading a lot on Kelly, more specifically half kelly or quarter kelly at the moment but not sure whether fixed stake, fixed % are just as useful. I am well aware that without being a success at fixed stake, no staking plan will improve. One final question. If I feel I have an edge on a game - say the market is 2.06 draw no bet and I feel they should be favourite, is there benefit to staking the asian handicap as well as the coupon or sticking to one market? Obviously the coupon odds will be far superior to he handicap but the team will need to win. |
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| | #2 (permalink) |
| AFL Punter ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: 23 Jun 2005 Location: Australia Age: 49
Posts: 1,059
| The popular money management recommendation to bet 2% of starting bank I believe is with Person A in mind. Certainly, depending on Person B's average outsider price, they could/would be wise to adjust their stakes to smaller amounts. Likewise Person C may as well stake higher than 2%, since less likelihood of a long losing streak. I'm a Person D, however my average price is somewhat greater than 2.00 and I've always found I don't have major losing streaks (touch wood), so I'm happy staking 2%. Whether it's 1.50 or 5.00 I still like to stake the same amount (never waste value!), although bigger odds I may taper the stake a little. I actually hate hearing people tip a 3.50 outsider then make the comment "small stake, of coarse" as if that's some sort of smart thinking - I've actually formed the opinion that although many punters like to buzzword "value" most only make sense out of thinking winners, which I think is pi$$ weak and effecting their performance. I've always done it based on starting bank but as a way of raising stakes I'm considering changing my plan to 3% of available bank. |
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