Staking Advice

[ArtMaster]

Hello,

Firstly, I know this is a topic that comes up again and again but since there isnt really a definitive answer as so dependent on numerous factors, I figure any debate is useful!

I have read a book by J Miller in which he argues the case for "Plateau staking" - I forget the exact figures but it is basically betting 22units with a starting bank of 1000. Then when the bank declines to a certain amount, or rises to a certain amount the stake rises/falls. It seems very mathematically sound and its merits are compared to fixed stake of starting bank and fixed stake of current bank.

Now I am now saying this must be the best staking plan, as obviously many books will argue many things. However any opinion on this method would be appreciated.

Then I am obviously thinking about my own gambling - this plan is based very much upon the typical US odds of 1.91. Now whilst a lot of my bets are based on the same (lines/spreads and asian handicaps) I also play a fair few outsiders in for instance tennis/football. In this instance does the staking plan allow for this, in that I will back 22 on a 1.90 line and then 22 on a 3/1 underdog. Obviously in each bet I would be taking what I consider to be "value".

Or in such an instance when many bets are within the 1.90-2 range and then others will be at bigger prices would 2 staking plans be an idea? Within the argument Miller makes, he is against staking more or less on a bet because in the end it will only really be the larger amounts which you are relying on.

Any thoughts..........

[aliando]

i believe there is a lot of thought that with 'outsider' bets then the confidence is not quite as high and thus a lower stake is placed.

however, my thinking is slightly different. Consider the outsiders as a betting thread in their own right. Over time, you want this to be providing positive returns as a whole rather than each bet. If this works, then surely placing the same amount on these bets as those you genuinely have greater confidence in, will provide good returns. Obviously, if these provide a negative return over time, then surely they are not worth betting on as oppossed to betting with smaller stakes.

if you have 2 styles of bets, be it more confident bets and outsiders, then I would argue that it would be of more benfit to keep the banks for these seperate in order to gain a greater understanding of whether they are both worth continuing.

however, my mind has a basic grasp of maths rather than the in-depth knowledge that others have here, so there may be a more complex argument as to choose a different route. Hope this makes some sense!

[ArtMaster]

Thanks for the input Alliando - I am pretty much from the same school of thinking, in that if taking value on all the bets then this staking method should be applicable in that you expect to win over the long term. However similarly I am not as mathematically minded as many on here so am interested in what other opinions are about

[ArtMaster]

Any more views on this?

Spoke to someone else who said that generally they will bet 1 unit on the outsiders still, as long as they feel they have the edge in their favour which makes sense to me I suppose, as long as you have a good bankroll and risking a small % of it for when the long runs without a winner ineveitably happen.

[ukgaz]

Here's my system. It's quite an easy one
1 Unit bets are the meat and potatoes of my money management. This is where I expect to get most of my profit from. The majority of my bets fall in this category. Odds for these will vary from 1.45 upto 3.00. If the odds are over this price I will reduce my stake to that of between 0.1 of a unit and 0.75units depending on how confident I feel ( this will be tournament winners, anytime goalscorers - even if price is lower than 3.00 I still won't do a full unit, big underdogs, Accumulators etc). Occasionally I may do what I see as a 2 unit bet if I feel 95% that I will win - I don't do this very often. Recording your bets in an excel spreadsheet is very important as you can tell where you have succeeded and where you have failed. You can then change your system/style as needed