% rate for winners???

[Winner4Me]

Does anyone know the win rates for 1st place or places.

i.e 6 x 1sts out of 19 races = 31% s/r

6 divide by 19 then press % = 31%

I just want to know the average %.

I have a system and im getting 27.5% for 1st place & 53% for placed at its lowest.
(Based over 39 races)

Is that good or bad????

I have had the 1st place one as high as 40% but whats the average.

Thanks

[Trilobite]

Iam not really sure what you are asking

But to calculate an average you simply add all the individual figures together and then divide that result by the number of individual figures used.

Or if you are like me you save all your records in an Excel Spreadsheet and let that do all the math for you

[Winner4Me]

Hi mate,
What i am looking for is an average % of 1st placed.

Like the average percent of a fav winning is 30-40%

I want to know what the av is of 1st places & placed...

I know how to do what you said but there must be a national average or something??

[Gingertipster]

Even if you did find this out mate, can't see it would be any good for finding value placed horses.
Every horses form is different so the value price for each horse is different, win or place.

Get to know the odds as percentages, ie 6/4 = 40%, 3/1 25% and 7/1 12.5% etc. That should make finding value place bets easier.
For 3/1.
Add 3 + 1 = 4
Second figure (1) divided by resultant figure (4) = 0.25 = 25% So 3/1 = 25%
Any horse you believe has a 25% of winning should only be backed at better than 3/1. Because a punter needs to win more than 25% of his 3/1 bets to make a profit.

To find the true value of the place. Say 7/1 = 12.5% if it is paying 1/4 the odds then the place odds are 1/4 of 7/1, 7 divided by 4 = 1.75. Add 1 to make it decimal odds 2.75, then divide 1 by 2.75 = 36.36. The true chance of a true 7/1 shot being placed is 36.36% or 7/4. If you believe a horse has a 36% chance of being placed, you should only back it at place only better than 7/4 or 7/1 for each way bets (1/4 odds).

Ginge

[Winner4Me]

Thanks for that gingertipster. That is a great help.

Not what i was asking but this will help me loads mate..

[Mr Intensity]

No idea what you're asking mate

But I thought this....

Originally Posted by Winner4Me

6 divide by 19 then press % = 31%

was so sweet

[Mr Intensity]

Are you looking for the average chance that a random horse wins? Say 6 horses in a race then if you pick a random horse without looking at anything else it has 16.66% chance of winning?

[Winner4Me]

No mate.
They say that if you bet on a fav in every race you have a 30-40% chance of winning.....

Is there something the same for getting 1st places or placed horses.

I just want an average to compare to my system.

This is what it is so far...(paper trial)

66 races in total (any track,any amount of horses in race ect)
55% placed rate (1-3) Average
26% 1st place rate. Average

Some races if i do it singular have been. (highest)
40% 1st place rate (over 3 tracks)
100% Placed rate.(on one track)

Just want to see if the system is any good or is working..

[Mr Intensity]

Still don't get it

Hopefully somebody will understand

[Winner4Me]

Ha ha, dont worry bout it mate, not that important

[ScottyXS]

I would imagine this to be a pretty high amount.
Its been a wee while since absolutely no horses made it to the end.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Originally Posted by ScottyXS

I would imagine this to be a pretty high amount.
Its been a wee while since absolutely no horses made it to the end.

It's like Manuel in Fawlty Towers 'He's from Barcelona'

He's from Norfolk

I live here as well.

[Winner4Me]

Too right cass me ol china.
Have a couple of pigs ears on me mate, dont tell the trouble and strife thou.
Or you will be down the frog n toad china...

[Guppie]

Dont know if i have read this right but do you mean what is an expected good strike rate% for a successful punter?

If so there are too many variables to give a definitive answer i would imagine.

[Winner4Me]

u got it mate,,,, thats what i wanted to know

u know the answer?

[Mr Intensity]

Then it totally depends on the odds you taking - and I imagine for Horse racing you'll be taking a wide range of odds then it becomes a fairly meaningless statistic.

The only time it's meaningful IMO is for someone betting say American sports spreads at odds always around 1.9 so anything above 53% is good.

If you're looking at past races for your system, then you need to find the odds you could reasonably have expected to get then work out the profit/loss you would have made and the ROI. At the end of the day this is the most important thing. It could be a good idea that you're looked at the system before putting the odds in, as it will avoid any "backfitting" of the data to produce a system which could have made a profit for the races you've already seen.

Good luck mate

[Winner4Me]

Nice one mate

Ive been storing data since the national. I have used all of this to come up with a system that gives a profit.(i think)
This is based on thousands of horses,trainers,tracks,weather,form,jockeys,Travel ed,age,c&d winner,days since last race....
Theres about 30 things that go onto this mate... all put on my computer and let it pick em....Easy life..

Might work might not....

[Gingertipster]

Originally Posted by Winner4Me

Does anyone know the win rates for 1st place or places.

i.e 6 x 1sts out of 19 races = 31% s/r

6 divide by 19 then press % = 31%

I just want to know the average %.

I have a system and im getting 27.5% for 1st place & 53% for placed at its lowest.
(Based over 39 races)

Is that good or bad????

I have had the 1st place one as high as 40% but whats the average.

Thanks

If you are getting a strike rate of 27.5% on your bets and want to know whether that is a good strike rate. It depends on the prices you are taking. If your average win is better than 2.64/1 then it is a good strike rate. If worse than 2.64/1 it is a bad strike rate. As a 27.5% strike rate at 2.64/1 is needed to break even.
To work out your average win price, add all the percentages up (see #4). So if you had just two winning bets one at 4/1 = 20% one at 9/1 = 10%. 20 + 10 = 30.
Then 30 divided by 2 (2 winning bets) = 15.
So 15% is your average win price (5.67/1).

Ginge