Profit v's Yield.........which to prefer

[Matthew]

I've backtested something on tennis, first round matches only.

My sample is 1,915 random first round tennis matches from 2001-2006.

If I select the player I think is most likely to win (>50% chance) then the stats look like this:

Staked:	£1,915.00
Returned:	£2,168.90
P+L:	£253.90
Strike Rate:	74.5%
Yield:	13.3%
Avg Odds:	1.53
Min Odds:	1.01
Max Odds:	3.46

I cannot find a better cutoff than 50% (despite automating & checking every 0.01% increment between 50% and 100%), the next best is a cutoff of 63.4%, which gives:

Staked:	£1,358.00
Returned:	£1,569.21
P+L:	£211.21
Strike Rate:	82.0%
Yield:	15.6%
Avg Odds:	1.41
Min Odds:	1.01
Max Odds:	3.46
Avg Win Odds:	1.41

Higher yield and strike rate but less £££s.

So what is the answer - do you always chase profit? Or is yield a better measure?

I think along the lines of time & effort in relation to profit. Which yield measures. I can't dispute that a 29% reduction in bets placed is a good thing - but for that I have to take a 17% cut in profit.

Is it just dependant on how much time you have to spare and get your selections ready?

Or is there some clever formula which will help me out here......

I look fwd to hearing peoples views.

Matt

[davidc]

Its pretty simple for me: PROFIT

Don't care how many bets I do or what the yield is (as long as it is positive) the bigger the profit the better for my bank!

Although I suppose yield is an important measure of how you are doing in relation to the number of bets you have but at the end of the day, IMO, profit is what gambling is primarily about.

[Matthew]

I have to agree that it is all about the £££s.

I just wondered if there was any clever formula out there that did a trade off for you based on a few things.

Maybe it is that simple - just go for the jugular and bollox to the yield figure.

[Matthew]

From another point of view - if i were to change my staking/betting strategy then this should become more of a consideration one would think.

If I were to play doubles/trebles then using the higher cutoff would presumably be preferable as the strike rate improves by 10%.

[AJ]

A higher yield is better for me, because it implies a higher return for each unit staked. This give me more confidence in my longer term results.

[Matthew]

Originally Posted by AJ

A higher yield is better for me, because it implies a higher return for each unit staked. This give me more confidence in my longer term results.

Is this true if it means that you make less money?

I'd be very happy making a 1% return on 1000s of bets than 5% on 100s.

Confidence comes from the size of your sample doesn't it. Certainly true in stats.

Although I can see your arguement in that if your yield is 10% after 100 bets then you have further to fall to hit a negative than if your bumbling along at a single digit yield.

Thanks all that have posted so far.

[PAULM03]

IMO it's irrelevant.
The yardstick should be if a system would give a greater return than sticking your money in the bank for a year (say 5% gross profit). This is achieveable with a low yielding, high volume system or a higher yielding, low volume system. It really doesn't matter, as long as you have a yield.

[Matthew]

Originally Posted by PAULM03

IMO it's irrelevant.
The yardstick should be if a system would give a greater return than sticking your money in the bank for a year (say 5% gross profit). This is achieveable with a low yielding, high volume system or a higher yielding, low volume system. It really doesn't matter, as long as you have a yield.

Okay.

So given the way you see the world, what would you go for (ref post 1).

A cutoff of 50% or 63.4%?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

You could always take the 63.4% and increase your staking. This would give you a higher profit.

[Matthew]

Originally Posted by WorkingForTheEnemy

You could always take the 63.4% and increase your staking. This would give you a higher profit.

Indeed it would but whatever I factor up my bets by - the same factor is applied to the profit and the yields will stay constant.

Leaving me with the profit v's yield argument again.


I'm coming round to thinking this is all about personal preference.
Some very experienced people have responded and taking their thoughts on board it seems I have to make a decision and go with it.

I'm still not clear what staking plan I will use in terms of fixed, percentage, plateau etc and when i decide that - i might get a different answer which will clearly point to one or tother.

Keep the opinions coming though - I value them highly.