My pricing value and staking help

[danq]

I usually price up markets for Scottish soccer on a Sunday for next Sat and I am usually pretty accurate with my pricing based on all the info I have, when I see a diference in price I usually bet right away as I think I am getting value as I trust my own price on the lower Divisions. When I have taken a price say on the Monday i have seen a price cut later, not down to me by the way, the problem for me is i would like to bet according to the value i get compared to the price quote from the bookie, some sort of staking method to apply, based on the percentage of value i was getting say 5% value 2.5 pts stake 10% value 5pt bet 15% value 7.5pt bet does anyone know how to work out my percentage value
eg my price 8/13 bookie price 8/11 value bet so what is the value i am getting percentage wise,hope this makes sense, not a great maths fan so hope its simple to work out. any help thanks

[Rob]

danq,

if you put your prices in decimal odds you get 1.615 (1+ 8/13) and the bookie is offering 1.727 (1+8/11).

this means that you would make a 0.727 point profit if the bet wins, but the true odds would give you a profit of 0.615. So, I would make your percentage advantage 0.727/0.615 = 1.182
i.e. 18.2%

[georgej]

Might need a 2nd opinion, but...

8/13 = 1.615385
8/11 = 1.727273

so 1.727 / 1.615 = 1.069

1.069 = 6.9%

[Rob]

danq can I change my answer!

odds of 1.727 represent a probability of 57.9% of an event occuring (100/1.727). odds of 1.615 represent a probability of 61.92% of an event occuring, so your advantage is 4.02%

I think that's right, might have to give them that maths GCSE back if not

[danq]

Cheers guys so the last calc correct thanks

[ArtMaster]

Old Post - but can someone just clarify whether George's or the last answer was correct?

Thanks

[cavelloman]

Simplified Kelly Criterion formula.

% chance of your selection X (actual odds available -1)

Subtract % chance of assessed selection not winning based on market odds.

Finally divided by actual odds you have calculated-1

This gives % of bankroll to bet.

Exanple you assess your selection to have a 66.7% chance of victory. Best odds available evens.(2.0)

Therefore:
((66.7 x 1)-(100-50))/0.5=33.4% of Bank.


2nd Example

Your assesment 50%(2.0) of victory.
Odds available 6/4(2.5)

((50 x 1.5)-(100-40))/1=15% of bank

3rd example

40% chance
Best odds 13/8

(40 X 1.62)-(100-38)/1.5= 1.87% of bank

[Ashtee]

Theoretically if the game was played 21 times the bet would win 13, lose 8.

So 13 x 1.727 = 22.451

22.451/21 = 1.069

+6.9% yield

Ash.