HT/FT stats help required

Hello all, been checking out yourselves for the past week and very impressed I am too. Anyway, enough of the flattery. I'm looking too develop my betting systems for the coming season - I hope to centre one on ht/ft betting, thus the need for ht/ft stats. Anyone know where I can find some [prefer English and Scottish leagues]? For the last season would be fine, more even better. Once studied I'll post any findings + once into season I'll let you know how my other bets get on, one of these is going to be a lucky 15 before and after system as described on the site but basing predictions on form stats I will be collecting which will be mainly utilising recent goal average and ratios. Fingers crossed!

[Joe]

Click the graphic below. You'll find what you need for last season.

The fee for my help is your secret system.

www.ksportz.com

There is a free download of the full application ( 30 day trial).

I have over 2 years of HT/FT odds which you can sort by home /away team, score etc.An example screen shot is shown below.



Regards

Mike

What's Mr. Wagman like?

Thanks for all the info , took me a while to come on this am after reading Newcastles poor match reports from last night[guess who I support], can't believe Bobby went for a draw! I'll lock myself away now with the stats and upon my return I'll see if I have any useful nuggets for you all.

Quick update, thanks for both suggestions Joe and Ksportz, i've gone for the couponz because although the football.data has loads of info its like reading the Matrix [i'm sure I saew a sexy redhead in the stats!!
Ollie, I work as a psyche nurse so get in the van now and come for your treatment!

Hi mrswagman

Just to let you know, Joe has excellent data on shots on target, Corners & Ref stats which I use alot and are not included in Couponz yet..

Regards

Mike

[Joe]

Thanks for the plug Mike.

Out of interest, does your software allow for comprehensive stats. analysis (e.g. regression)? The reason my data looks overwhelming (to some) is because there's a lot of numbers, but being in a format compatible with packages like Excel, I can readily do stats on the data as and when I think of new ideas to test.

Had time to do the scottish leagues for past 2 years today, ended up doing some with football -data stats and to be honest, once I started it was very easy' changed from the ksportz stats part way through as some of the data from last years scottish premiership was missing[only listed 38 premier games?]. Anyway, given as % of total league games played each season.

--- h/a h/d h/h d/h d/a d/d a/h a/d a/a
SP 99/00 3.88 6.66 25 15 11.66 12.77 2.22 3.88 18.88
SP 00/01 2.63 4.82 29.38 12.28 11.4 14.03 2.19 3.94 19.29

S1 99/00 2.22 3.88 25 18.33 10.55 12.77 0 5.55 21.66
S1 00/01 2.73 8.33 25 9.44 9.44 11.11 2.77 9.44 21.66

S2 99/00 2.77 7.22 21.66 16.11 7.22 17.22 3.33 6.66 17.77
S2 00/01 3.33 6.11 20.55 15.55 16.11 17.22 2.22 6.11 12.77

S3 99/00 1.66 5.55 21.11 14.44 11.11 13.33 2.77 2.77 27.22
S3 00/01 1.66 5.55 23.33 14.44 17.22 13.88 2.22 2.22 19.44


Hope stats turn out OK like this, should eb easy to sort as there are 9 columns of stats, now lets see what can be done with them???

[Joe]

I'll be very impressed if you can find something useful for double result betting. I've tried a few ideas but none work. The overround for double result betting is much higher than for 1X2 so you're already up against it from the start. May look at it again if you can inspire me in some way. Good luck anyway.

Joe & MrsWagman

I have also tried to find systems with HT FT but as you say the bookies have a big over-round on the figures and which ever way you add it up it seems in their favour.

At the end of the day if you can predict matches and couple that with searching for value odds then you should do ok.

My stats does have gaps but their are 38 matches for each team! I hope to fill in the gaps in the next couple of months. approx 3-4 missing for each team! ( If anyone has Mabels Tables I would be interested in help!)

My app does not test systems as yet but I'd am writing a "Wizard" that takes you through some steps to test a system... ie

Bet : 1 point Singles
Where: Home Team = Man Utd
Where: Away team != (Arsenal & Liverpool & Chelsea)
Where: Home Odds > 4/11

This would regress through all odds on the database and give you a profit loss summary. You could do more complex stuff like...


Bet : 2 point Singles & 1 point doubles
Where: Home Odds > Evens
Where: League Points Diff > +10
Where: Away Form < 800

[It may not find any bets on some coupons depending on how many items you include!!!]


I'm currently looking at a system to find two high scoring matches on a coupon and cover
3-0 4-0 5-0 3-1 4-1 5-1 on each match.

Giving 12 5 point singles and 36 1 point double.

Thats what I use Joes stats for along with my correct score algorythms. I'd love to incorporate them into the app but the maintance required is amazing.(How do you keep up Joe?). I also use a "Team Erratic Factor" whereby teams going from HW to HL score 5 points , HW - AL = 4 points etc... This give me a league table for most / least consistant teams. If two erratic teams are playing and the shots on target are high I may include that in the bet.

I've had a double on 2-2 late last season that won a coulpe of hundred and come close a couple of times. It's a sh*t or bust bet and mostly missus but the matches I pick do tend to have lots of goals!

Anyway enough of my rants. I'll post my picks for the weekend on Friday / Sat morning after teams are out.

My only other tip is bet on Ronnie Johnson to score first (When he plays!!!) @ 40/1. I've won twice on this with £10 quid !!! He's great in the air on corners!


Mike

Quote:

---

This would regress through all odds on the database and give you a profit loss summary. You could do more complex stuff like...

---

WOW! That would be AWESOME, and an excellent time saver.

[Joe]

Quote:

---

How do you keep up

---

It's currently about 2 hours per week (usually on one weekday night) to update the data. This will probably rise to 3 when all leagues have started playing and 5 when there are midweek matches. Given that I was spending 1 to 2 last season just doing corners and shots data for England/Scotland I don't think this is too bad. However, I wish my programming skills were better so I could fully automate the data collection process. At the moment it's a jumble of macros run in Excel after a series of copy/pastes.

I don't use the majority of data for betting systems at the moment, particularly for the European leagues which I know less about, but I'm hoping that in the future I will stumble upon the "winning system" and then I will have the data to test it. You can never have enough data in my opinion.

Agreed, a real challenge to find something useful in the stats but will work hard on it the coming week; if nothing comes up at least thats one avenue not to go down - I know to lose my money another way then.
After a cursory examination, it might be poss to not rely on doubles but go for multiple singles. Some big % but low value ones with some of the more likelyhigher odd results. Will poss give a steadily increasing pot; just writing my thoughts down as they come here so don't be too hasty in shooting me down. Will have to look at the percentages to sort it and it would mean putting the bets on numerous sites for best odds, the trticky bit is getting a realsitic % value for the results at they will vary acording to teams etc etc, good job I love a challenge.
By the way, what bookies does everyone find find best for odds? Ladbrokes always seems reliable but Eurobet seem to give a few high odds on occassion?
Cheers,
Phil [not mrs wagman but mr swagman, should have given it more thought when I realsied I couldn't have a full stop].

Don't expect many singles available with Eurobet!