compare spreadbetting to fixed odds ?

[muppet77]

if i bet on fixed odds, i know that if i have a yield (profit/staked) of over 0% then i have beaten the bookies. if i get over, say, 10% then that would be outstanding in the long run after a large amounts of bets.
basically, i know where i stand.

however, how can i measure how good my spread bets are?
obviosly a profit is a profit! but how well have i done?

say for example i bet on total goals in a match and bet £1 per goal. how can i compare an average profit per game of eg 25p to a yield of 5% on fixed odds betting?

the 25p profit per game is not the same as 25% yield, as my stake is not fixed at £1 - it is only £1 per goal.

any ideas welcomed.

[slapdash]

I don't think you'll find anything perfect, but then I don't think using "yield" as a statistic for fixed-odds betting is perfect without also having information about the odds (a yield of +10% from bets around evens is outstanding, but a yield of +10% from bets around 100/1 ... I wouldn't bother).

One thing you could do is express the total profit from winning bets as a percentage of the total loss from losing bets. E.g., if you make a profit of 1123 units on winning bets, but lose 1050 units on losing bets, then 1123/1050 = 1.0695 = 106.95%, so you could express that as +6.95%.

It's a simple statistic that gives some idea of the profitability or otherwise, and has the advantage that it makes sense for either spread betting or fixed odds betting.

It's not the same as yield for fixed odds betting, though if your fixed odds bets are all at about the same odds then you can convert between the two:

E.g., a +10% yield at odds of evens means you have a 55% strike rate, so your winning bets make you 55 units for every 45 units your losing bets lose, and 55/45 = 122.22%, so this statistic would be +22.22%.

A 10% yield at odds of 4/1 means you have a 22% strike rate, so your winning bets make you 88=4x22 units for every 78 units your losing bets lose, and 88/78=112.82%, so this statistic would be +12.82%.

[muppet77]

thanks buddy, that sounds sensible.

i have made 62 bets with wins totalling +52.14 and losses totalling -34.04 which gives a percentage of 53%.

does anyone else have spread stats that they can share please to compare with mine?

does mine look okay, good, very good?

trying to convert to a fixed odds equivalent at even odds,
60 profit
40 loss
gives 60/40 = 1.50 (so similar to mine)
and a yield of (60-40)/100 = +20%

if this is correct, then that's very impressive so far.
hope that sounds correct?

[muppet77]

...could i even go one further and say that with 'actual' wins and losses of 60 and 40, (derived from previous post) and 'expected' wins of 50,50 at even odds, the chitest stat is 6% pure luck, 94% significant.

can i use this stat as a measure or am i getting bananas by adding apples to oranges?